2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

[UTexasFight 9,449]

3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Sunday afternoon batting orders should be filled out by the random number generator.

That’d be a fun chicken shit bingo.

open the gates 3-4 hours early, place your bets with 50/50 proceeds going to Astros Foundation 

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

8 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

I'd agree with Law if we needed Abreu to be elite and anchor the lineup.  He just needs to be productive and a little bit dangerous.  That's what makes the lineup elite.

One of the comments in the Law article said "this is like Carlos Lee all over again" without acknowledging that Carlos Lee would have been a phenomenal piece on a contending team.

A team like the Cubs should not have given Abreu the contract we did.  It makes all the sense in the world why we would.

[henrygandorf 29,191]

11 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Yes.

 

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He's really good man. He's miles better than any other CF on the market.  Short of turning back the clock to 2020 and giving Springer 6/150 (which we should have done!) he's the best option available in CF by a ton. Paying him 5/125 or whatever he was rumored to get isn't any big deal or overpay.  

ok, sell me on nimmo for 5/125.

and "he's really good" and "better than any other cf on the market" aren't reasons.  i'm familiar with nimmo in that i know his stats because i play fantasy baseball.  i don't watch a bunch of mets games or anything.

[Pimphand 5,750]

9 minutes ago, kevwun said:

And he'll turn around in a few weeks and sing the praises of whatever team gives Judge 8 years.

Fuck I just noticed Cole has an opt-out of his contract after 2024.  I was really hoping the MFY would go ahead and money whip Judge and have over $100/mm year tied up in just those 3 contracts for the next 5 years while the Astros window is open.  Only having 2 guaranteed seasons of that sucks.

[henrygandorf 29,191]

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

One of the comments in the Law article said "this is like Carlos Lee all over again"

lol.  in the 3 years after we signed lee, he had 321 rbi and hit over .300 all three years.  that contract was problematic but the situations are not the same.

[kevwun 15,788]

Hell will freeze over before Cole opts out.  He's not getting more money from someone else.

[henrygandorf 29,191]

2 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Fuck I just noticed Cole has an opt-out of his contract after 2024.  I was really hoping the MFY would go ahead and money whip Judge and have over $100/mm year tied up in just those 3 contracts for the next 5 years while the Astros window is open.  Only having 2 guaranteed seasons of that sucks.

why would cole opt-out?

[Jshep34 2,308]

I will say this, I can't stress enough how much of a cancer Click was to the front office and players. He was about as insubordination as it gets when it came to working for Crane.

[HtownHorn 14,681]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

lol.  in the 3 years after we signed lee, he had 321 rbi and hit over .300 all three years.  that contract was problematic but the situations are not the same.

It also cost the Astros draft picks. Not losing a draft pick for Abreu, 3 year deal, $20M AAV when most of your pitching is team controlled for 3-4 more years.

[Pimphand 5,750]

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

why would cole opt-out?

I mean there is no chance in hell he would get offered that kind of money but so far he definitely doesn't seem to be having much fun in MFY land even though it was his favorite team as a kid.  Mix in the fact that by the end of the 2024 season he will have to look and realize there is no way to compete for a WS for the next 3 seasons if he opts in.  He still has never won the World Series and so he would be relying on a Verlander style run on a contender if he does want a twilight ring if he doesn't opt-out.

Also I imagine life in the bronx is going to get pretty gnarly if they spend ~20 years not even going to the world series.  I'm definitely here for it though.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Pimphand

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

3 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

I will say this, I can't stress enough how much of a cancer Click was to the front office and players. He was about as insubordination as it gets when it came to working for Crane.

Is he the first human being in history to get fired for not wanting to spend his boss's money?

[tx 3 putt 76,957]

33 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

am i the only one that doesn't understand the nimmo hype? 

I hope we pass on him. There will be younger / cheaper players available at the trade deadline 

[rvm96 1,643]

Let's go I just checked Twitter and saw the Abreu news!

 

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I would be.  Crane wants to get away from that.  That's what the Astros HOF and that area is all about.  He will definitely be there.  

I'm very confused by this post tbh.

[tx 3 putt 76,957]

Also, the M’s have to go over pay for some more pitching now 

[Limp Brisket 546]

3 hours ago, Scraps said:

Half chub

 

3 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Only a semi? You know they have medicine for that. 

 

46 minutes ago, Scraps said:

well that took me about 20 mins to commit to....flight booked.  

Shit’s good huh?

[henrygandorf 29,191]

5 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

I mean there is no chance in hell he would get offered that kind of money but so far he definitely doesn't seem to be having much fun in MFY land even though it was his favorite team as a kid.  Mix in the fact that by the end of the 2024 season he will have to look and realize there is no way to compete for a WS for the next 3 seasons if he opts in.  He still has never won the World Series and so he would be relying on a Verlander style run on a contender if he does want a twilight ring if he doesn't opt-out.

Also I imagine life in the bronx is going to get pretty gnarly if they spend ~20 years not even going to the world series.  I'm definitely here for it though.

there aren't many better situations that allow you to "contend" for a championship every year like the yankees. 

they will spend and they will try, they're just locked into some shitty contracts, seem to constantly make bad decisions, and are in the same league as the astros, which has complicated things for them.  nobody leaves the yankees to try and win a ring with a contender.  they don't have the cache maybe they used to have, but that's just not realistic.  baseball is too much of a crapshoot.  it's not like he's still toiling away on the pirates.

[UTHornFan014 710]

13 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

I will say this, I can't stress enough how much of a cancer Click was to the front office and players. He was about as insubordination as it gets when it came to working for Crane.

Want to say more? I swear I won't tell a soul

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

Likely nothing, but some interesting conclusions could be drawn...

 

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Chuckie Finster

[formermav43 4,606]

21 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

One of the comments in the Law article said "this is like Carlos Lee all over again" without acknowledging that Carlos Lee would have been a phenomenal piece on a contending team.

And that Lee's deal was for 6 years vs. 3. And that this deal is for only $3 mill/yr more 16 years later. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

21 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

I will say this, I can't stress enough how much of a cancer Click was to the front office and players. He was about as insubordination as it gets when it came to working for Crane.

I was always opposed to that guy, from his introductory press conference to his first moves. I can't tell you how gruntling it is to have my suspicions confirmed.  Fuck that guy. 

[hornmpa96 2,618]

Awesome news - We needed to upgrade 1B offense and Abreu definitely does that. Can’t wait to see what else happens this offseason.

[Scraps 13,561]

Keith Law sounds like a faget

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

17 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I hope we pass on him. There will be younger / cheaper players available at the trade deadline 

Who?  At CF we are talking about.  Literally there is noone good at CF that was available for anything other than a kings ransom in CF.  It's the hardest position to fill in MLB with SS being a fucking assembly line of HOF talent lately.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

17 minutes ago, rvm96 said:

Let's go I just checked Twitter and saw the Abreu news!

 

I'm very confused by this post tbh.

The Astros have retired a lot of numbers.  For franchise really good players but not HOF level players.  When Click saw how many numbers were retired (for a franchise that has 2.5 HOFers) he said "this is a bunch of bullshit- we don't need to be retiring the number of every fan favorite that played here for half a decade and was well thought of.  Thus, the idea of the Astros HOF, Astros HOF weekend, and honoring those type of guys in the park (outside CF to RF when you walk through the Astros hall of honor or whatever it is) rather than retiring their jersey.  Yuli is exactly the kind of guy who once had his number retired by the Astros and now doesn't.  I think the requirement going forward to having your number retired under Crane will be MLB HOF.   Everyone else goes into the Astros HOF.

[formermav43 4,606]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Who?  At CF we are talking about.  Literally there is noone good at CF that was available for anything other than a kings ransom in CF.  It's the hardest position to fill in MLB with SS being a fucking assembly line of HOF talent lately.  

Yeah, if you pass on Nimmo, the younger cheaper guy is the one already on the team. And then you get a LF instead. Which is fine - it's certainly a lot easier to find a LF than a CF. I think there's a clear misunderstanding of how many good CF there even are, let alone available (and that objectively, Chas is actually a pretty good one relative to his peers, there just aren't that many).

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

Just now, formermav43 said:

Yeah, if you pass on Nimmo, the younger cheaper guy is the one already on the team. And then you get a LF instead. Which is fine - it's certainly a lot easier to find a LF than a CF. I think there's a clear misunderstanding of how many good CF there even are, let alone available (and that objectively, Chas is actually a pretty good one relative to his peers, there just aren't that many).

Yessir.  It really is the hardest position in all of MLB to fill (unless you want the unicorn that plays great defense and hits above average and plays 80% of his games at Catcher).  That's pretty much Realmatu and that's the end of the list more or less. Because that kind of catcher is so incredibly rare that makes the 7 decent CF so much more valuable than the rest of the guys.  
I agree Chas is just fine in CF. If you want to get better than him you pretty much have to pay Nimmo.  

[henrygandorf 29,191]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The Astros have retired a lot of numbers.  For franchise really good players but not HOF level players.  When Click saw how many numbers were retired (for a franchise that has 2.5 HOFers) he said "this is a bunch of bullshit- we don't need to be retiring the number of every fan favorite that played here for half a decade and was well thought of.  Thus, the idea of the Astros HOF, Astros HOF weekend, and honoring those type of guys in the park (outside CF to RF when you walk through the Astros hall of honor or whatever it is) rather than retiring their jersey.  Yuli is exactly the kind of guy who once had his number retired by the Astros and now doesn't.  I think the requirement going forward to having your number retired under Crane will be MLB HOF.   Everyone else goes into the Astros HOF.

being an astros legend meant something a little different from 1962-1997.  that was a long walk through the desert and some really steady years or being a fan favorite meant a lot. 

the 25 years since then have completely redefined who we are as a franchise and what it means to be a face-of-the-franchise type player for some of the teams we've had.

[formermav43 4,606]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yessir.  It really is the hardest position in all of MLB to fill (unless you want the unicorn that plays great defense and hits above average and plays 80% of his games at Catcher).  That's pretty much Realmatu and that's the end of the list more or less. Because that kind of catcher is so incredibly rare that makes the 7 decent CF so much more valuable than the rest of the guys.  
I agree Chas is just fine in CF. If you want to get better than him you pretty much have to pay Nimmo.  

As crazy as it seems, I think you can already add Rutschman to that list. But your point stands.

[henrygandorf 29,191]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yessir.  It really is the hardest position in all of MLB to fill (unless you want the unicorn that plays great defense and hits above average and plays 80% of his games at Catcher).  That's pretty much Realmatu and that's the end of the list more or less. Because that kind of catcher is so incredibly rare that makes the 7 decent CF so much more valuable than the rest of the guys.  
I agree Chas is just fine in CF. If you want to get better than him you pretty much have to pay Nimmo.  

you can have chas as your starting cf hitting 9th with his meh numbers if you have ++ production from your corner infielders.  we didn't have that last year from 1b, but now we look like we might.  i think the calculus changes with the abreu signing.

meanwhile, we still have 6 starting pitchers who would be in the top 3-4 of 29 mlb teams' rotations.  we should be trying to make a move with garcia or urquidy that strengthens the offense.  add to that the problem isn't just too much great sp, but none of them are suited to try their luck as a high-leverage bullpen piece, because we also have a ton of good to great guys back there.

it's a unique problem that i'm willing to cope with.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

13 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

Yeah, if you pass on Nimmo, the younger cheaper guy is the one already on the team. And then you get a LF instead. Which is fine - it's certainly a lot easier to find a LF than a CF. I think there's a clear misunderstanding of how many good CF there even are, let alone available (and that objectively, Chas is actually a pretty good one relative to his peers, there just aren't that many).

I think we already have a pretty decent LF.

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

8 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

being an astros legend meant something a little different from 1962-1997.  that was a long walk through the desert and some really steady years or being a fan favorite meant a lot. 

the 25 years since then have completely redefined who we are as a franchise and what it means to be a face-of-the-franchise type player for some of the teams we've had.

That's totally and completely fair.  I was just explaining what I meant by the comment, not passing value judgment on it. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

8 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

As crazy as it seems, I think you can already add Rutschman to that list. But your point stands.

Not crazy. I think you are right. And to that point, Realmuto might not be on that list much longer.  Catchers can catch forever b/c they aren't expected to be athletes or do really well with the bat.  They age in dog years offensively.  As one establishes himself another fades away.  There can be only one. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

12 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

being an astros legend meant something a little different from 1962-1997.  that was a long walk through the desert and some really steady years or being a fan favorite meant a lot. 

the 25 years since then have completely redefined who we are as a franchise and what it means to be a face-of-the-franchise type player for some of the teams we've had.

I mean we don't even hang banners for winning the division any more.

[WBT 20,572]

I think Law is more right than not.  Father Time always wins.  There's a good chance Abreu has a 2022 Yuli season before the contract is up. 

But it's only 3 years and we will still have a shitload of controllable cheap pitching during those 3 years.  It won't really hurt us much and there is a chance for some upside.

[Pimphand 5,750]

39 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

there aren't many better situations that allow you to "contend" for a championship every year like the yankees. 

they will spend and they will try, they're just locked into some shitty contracts, seem to constantly make bad decisions, and are in the same league as the astros, which has complicated things for them.  nobody leaves the yankees to try and win a ring with a contender.  they don't have the cache maybe they used to have, but that's just not realistic.  baseball is too much of a crapshoot.  it's not like he's still toiling away on the pirates.

Historically speaking I don't disagree with you but the New York Yankees post luxury tax are not our father's New York Yankees.  The Dodgers and Red Sox have figured out how to survive and thrive in the luxury tax world but since the tax has arrived the MFY have been to 2 World Series and won 1 in the 20 seasons that followed and the first WS appearance was during the first year of the tax so it practically doesn't count since the consequences were for following seasons.  That is a historically bad fall classic drought for them and while they definitely can wake up from their bullshit self induced nightmare it will still take a few years of not fucking up A&M style contracts and stocking the system for them to fix ship.  I view them signing Judge to an 8 year deal as a key hallmark in continuing the nightmare so I am hoping to get good news soon.

That the Astros are in the way just means more escalation of commitment and we should all be thankful for that.

[Pimphand 5,750]

10 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think Law is more right than not.  Father Time always wins.  There's a good chance Abreu has a 2022 Yuli season before the contract is up. 

But it's only 3 years and we will still have a shitload of controllable cheap pitching during those 3 years.  It won't really hurt us much and there is a chance for some upside.

He is right about father time and wrong about almost all the rest....  I'll take a 2022 Yuli crappy regular season + solid postseason in 2025 without hesitation.  Then you don't re-sign him 😉

[Jshep34 2,308]

Is he the first human being in history to get fired for not wanting to spend his boss's money?

Nope but when the boss tells ya to try to spend the money and or make a effort and you don't then ya get fired. Ultimately Crane got what he wanted a world series title.

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

6 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

you can have chas as your starting cf hitting 9th with his meh numbers if you have ++ production from your corner infielders.  we didn't have that last year from 1b, but now we look like we might.  i think the calculus changes with the abreu signing.

meanwhile, we still have 6 starting pitchers who would be in the top 3-4 of 29 mlb teams' rotations.  we should be trying to make a move with garcia or urquidy that strengthens the offense.  add to that the problem isn't just too much great sp, but none of them are suited to try their luck as a high-leverage bullpen piece, because we also have a ton of good to great guys back there.

it's a unique problem that i'm willing to cope with.

Agreed completely.  Which is why I said I was just fine with Chas and meant it.  But you can't upgrade through the trade market from him.  Unless Toronto wants to give us back Springer.  Which they might. But probably not.  But if it allowed them to sign JV... IF I was the Astros GM I would probably call them and ask if they would be interested in doing a Chas for Springer trade.  Chas is obviously not as good as Springer but he will almost assuredly do better than Springer on a $/per WAR basis the next 4 years.  If they decide they'd rather spend somewhere else Chas would allow them to do that.  For us it would allow us to upgrade one of the few upgradeable positions and right the greatest wrong of the Crane era. 

[billfromlaketravis 11,479]

I wouldn’t touch Nimmo over $100 million. Give Conforto a show me contract, 2 years $30 with a club option for year 2.

Also very excited about Abreu. 

[Snake Diggity 4,624]

Of course it all depends on price, but Nimmo, Conforto, and Benintendi all look like great fits.  If the prices shake out correctly, the right players are open to lesser roles, and Crane is in fuck it mode, I could see an opening day roster of:

2B Altuve

SS Pena

LF Alvarez 

3B Bregman 

RF Tucker

1B Abreu 

CF Nimmo*

C Alfaro*

DH Brantley*

Bench: Maldonado, Gurriel, Dubon, McCormick

Rotation: Valdez, McCullers, Javier, Garcia, Urquidy, Brown

Bullpen: Chafin*, Maton, Stanek, Neris, Montero, Abreu, Pressly

Optioned: Lee, Diaz, Hensley, Meyers, Matijevic, Perez, Whitley, Bielak, Blanco, Dubin, France, Mushinski, Taylor, Martinez

Traded: Paredes

[LebongJames 1,811]

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

One of the comments in the Law article said "this is like Carlos Lee all over again" without acknowledging that Carlos Lee would have been a phenomenal piece on a contending team.

A team like the Cubs should not have given Abreu the contract we did.  It makes all the sense in the world why we would.

This would be one of the best contracts in baseball if Abreu has the years that Lee did in his first 3 years here.

.882

.937

.831

[Scraps 13,561]

..

[henrygandorf 29,191]

24 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Historically speaking I don't disagree with you but the New York Yankees post luxury tax are not our father's New York Yankees.  The Dodgers and Red Sox have figured out how to survive and thrive in the luxury tax world but since the tax has arrived the MFY have been to 2 World Series and won 1 in the 20 seasons that followed and the first WS appearance was during the first year of the tax so it practically doesn't count since the consequences were for following seasons.  That is a historically bad fall classic drought for them and while they definitely can wake up from their bullshit self induced nightmare it will still take a few years of not fucking up A&M style contracts and stocking the system for them to fix ship.  I view them signing Judge to an 8 year deal as a key hallmark in continuing the nightmare so I am hoping to get good news soon.

That the Astros are in the way just means more escalation of commitment and we should all be thankful for that.

the history of the yankees is a little tricky when you look at the numbers.  it's practically implied that they're in the hunt every year and win it fairly regularly until recently.  and yeah, they have 27 titles so that's kinda true.

they didn't win it from 1963-1976 (they appeared 3x and lost).  then they didn't win it from 1979 until 1995 - prime steinbrenner years (they were 0-1 in that span).

then from 1996-2000 they won it 4x in 5 years, which is by far their biggest dynasty stretch since the 50's.  so from 1963-1995 (33 seasons) they won 2 titles, back to back, in 1977-78.  in the 22 seasons since 2001, they've won it once and lost it twice.

yes, i realize i'm arguing the opposite of my point.  but no way cole opts out of that cash. 

the yankees will always be "competitive" but you're absolutely correct that they have not been able to crack the code in the post-luxury-tax age.  he would be what, 34 when he opts out?  he would need a 3+ year deal and i doubt he would take that big a haircut to go to a marginally better situation, and that's counting on (1) his 2024 season being strong and (2) a top 3 contender being able to afford $25mm+ per year on top of whatever their current payroll is. 

tl/dr = fuck the yankees.

[Mez2 4,023]

I've always liked Abram, especially since he now is an Astro. Geez, this is a machine built to go fuck shit up.

 

[tx 3 putt 76,957]

35 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

IF I was the Astros GM I would probably call them and ask if they would be interested in doing a Chas for Springer trade.

lay off the drugs man 
 

[Pimphand 5,750]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

the history of the yankees is a little tricky when you look at the numbers.  it's practically implied that they're in the hunt every year and win it fairly regularly until recently.  and yeah, they have 27 titles so that's kinda true.

they didn't win it from 1963-1976 (they appeared 3x and lost).  then they didn't win it from 1979 until 1995 - prime steinbrenner years (they were 0-1 in that span).

then from 1996-2000 they won it 4x in 5 years, which is by far their biggest dynasty stretch since the 50's.  so from 1963-1995 (33 seasons) they won 2 titles, back to back, in 1977-78.  in the 22 seasons since 2001, they've won it once and lost it twice.

yes, i realize i'm arguing the opposite of my point.  but no way cole opts out of that cash. 

the yankees will always be "competitive" but you're absolutely correct that they have not been able to crack the code in the post-luxury-tax age.  he would be what, 34 when he opts out?  he would need a 3+ year deal and i doubt he would take that big a haircut to go to a marginally better situation, and that's counting on (1) his 2024 season being strong and (2) a top 3 contender being able to afford $25mm+ per year on top of whatever their current payroll is. 

tl/dr = fuck the yankees.

So 1995-1963=33 for seasons.   During that stretch they appeared in 6 World Series winning 2.

If we just look at 2022-2003=20 for seasons with 2 appearances and 1 win.  Do you honestly think that by 2036 they will have won it again and have appeared 3 more times?

Can it happen? Absolutely.  Do I expect it to happen?  Not really barring some major organizational philosophical changes which will get harder and harder to make if the Astros keep breaking their spirits the next 3-4 years.

[Pimphand 5,750]

MFY summary

1903-1935 won 4 0.125 titles per season
1936-1962 won 16 0.615384615 titles per season
1963-2022 won 7 0.118644068 titles per season
 

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

13 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

lay off the drugs man 
 

As usual I have no idea what you are talking about. Springer is a better player. The Astors have money to spend. Chas has more WAR per dollar. The Blue Jays are said to be looking to shed salary to make a monster offer to JV. Which side exactly would be preposterous for such a deal?  

[henrygandorf 29,191]

i just don't see them ever swallowing the idea of being in "rebuild mode" so they'll continue to throw money at the problem and you never know what blind squirrels are going to find.  other than the dodgers, there's nobody else you would predict to be ~competitive for the next 10 years.

except of course, us.

[CycleTex87 2,970]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

being an astros legend meant something a little different from 1962-1997.  that was a long walk through the desert and some really steady years or being a fan favorite meant a lot. 

the 25 years since then have completely redefined who we are as a franchise and what it means to be a face-of-the-franchise type player for some of the teams we've had.

Why do you choose 1997 as the inflection point here? Serious question.  Just because it was 25 years ago?