2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

[LebongJames 1811]

If we are going to sign a veteran starter, I think Eovaldi would be a great insurance signing. He’s from Houston, has not been the most healthy but I can’t imagine he would be making more than we were paying Odorizzi (or however you spell his name)

[texashorne 1177]

5 minutes ago, huge said:

It's really long.  I got about half way through and lost interest.  I don't care anyway.  

We are going to have a really good team again next year and will be the betting favorite to win again.  Everything else is just noise.

Very true. But if the league gave juiced balls to the Astros holy crap. That what bothers me about this. All the crap taken in the past and present by the Astros while the media glosses over everything else.. just name it. This story is going to be a nothing burger. If the tables were turned, it would be the top story of the offseason and beyond. 

 

[The Dog 44048]

1 minute ago, LebongJames said:

If we are going to sign a veteran starter, I think Eovaldi would be a great insurance signing. He’s from Houston, has not been the most healthy but I can’t imagine he would be making more than we were paying Odorizzi (or however you spell his name)

aw hell no.

[texashorne 1177]

21 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I love Vasquez but Contreras is worth the money if that's where we want to spend it.

and this is stupid:

Jansen doesn't suck but he hasn't been the same since we broke him in 2017. We have better bullpen arms for less money.

The Astros are breaking everyone's brains and it's glorious.

Well this makes the Montero deal look damn good.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

6 minutes ago, texashorne said:

Well this makes the Montero deal look damn good.

Unbelievable 

[henrygandorf 29191]

 

[HtownHorn 14681]

11 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

If we are going to sign a veteran starter, I think Eovaldi would be a great insurance signing. He’s from Houston, has not been the most healthy but I can’t imagine he would be making more than we were paying Odorizzi (or however you spell his name)

Yep. I agree. Eovaldi has also been a very good post-season pitcher, except against us in 2021 when Cora overused him.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

Is it possible that Crane is secretly cheap? 
he talks every trade deadline about how we will go way into the tax for the right deal but it never materialized. 
our biggest FA outlay ever is like 60M under him, right?

The Yordan extension was of the variety of “you can’t afford not to do this- and now we are letting the Cardinals drink our milkshake on our self appointed #1 target over an insignificant amount of money. 

i don’t actually think he’s really cheap- but I think he damn sure talks more like a big swinging dick than actually acting like one. Interesting dynamic to watch play out this off-season. If the off-season becomes nothing more than JV out, Montero retained, Abreu signed and Brantley maybe brought in during spring training while way behind I can’t say that we actually got better, can you? I don’t think that’s how it all plays out. I certainly hope not. But it would be disappointing with as much swag as they displayed while kicking Click out. 

[TonyTexas 10512]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Is it possible that Crane is secretly cheap? 

The Astros have been in the top 11 for opening day payrolls in MLB for 5 years running and no doubt will be there in 2023. Hardly cheap. For the most part, the teams that go over the CBT are those with much bigger TV deals. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by TonyTexas

[TexArcher 37774]

I love that all these teams are crippling themselves for several years in the future in a futile attempt to spend enough now to beat the Astros.  Meanwhile, we just keep reloading with the best bargains in baseball.  We're finding gems that everyone else is missing, developing them, and building depth that no amount of free agent money can match.  And we're not done winning championships.

Is this the best-run franchise in professional sports?

Edited December 7, 2022 by TexArcher

[Mstrat 16]

Is it possible that Crane is secretly cheap? 
he talks every trade deadline about how we will go way into the tax for the right deal but it never materialized. 
our biggest FA outlay ever is like 60M under him, right?
The Yordan extension was of the variety of “you can’t afford not to do this- and now we are letting the Cardinals drink our milkshake on our self appointed #1 target over an insignificant amount of money. 

i don’t actually think he’s really cheap- but I think he damn sure talks more like a big swinging dick than actually acting like one. Interesting dynamic to watch play out this off-season. If the off-season becomes nothing more than JV out, Montero retained, Abreu signed and Brantley maybe brought in during spring training while way behind I can’t say that we actually got better, can you? I don’t think that’s how it all plays out. I certainly hope not. But it would be disappointing with as much swag as they displayed while kicking Click out. 

Contreras situation I’m happy to lose out on. It’s a destructive deal.

Christian Javier, Framber Valdez and Justin Tucker among others are scheduled for arbitration in January. If Crane is playing the long game, that money is going to be getting spent where it belongs.

[The Dog 44048]

12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Is it possible that Crane is secretly cheap? 

Keep in mind that the Astros still have the numbers guys in there and they tell Crane what a player is worth. If another team offers more (or a lot more) than that then I'll bet that Crane lets that player walk. Curious to hear what the Cardinals are offering him. I'd rather we be smart than win a dick-measuring contest.

Also keep in mind that the Cardinals would LOVE to steal him from the Cubs. it means more to them than to us for that reason.

5 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

The Astros have been in the top 11 for opening day payrolls in MLB for 5 years running and no doubt will be there in 2023. Hardly cheap. For the most part, the teams that go over the CBT are those with much bigger TV deals. 

Yup. We aren't "cheap" by any means. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

2 minutes ago, Mstrat said:

Contreras situation I’m happy to lose out on. It’s a destructive deal.

Christian Javier, Framber Valdez and Justin Tucker among others are scheduled for arbitration in January. If Crane is playing the long game, that money is going to be getting spent where it belongs.

Ok. That would be fine. If you lock down at least 2 of the 4 pitchers. Justin Tucker isn’t signing an extension and neither is Kyle Tucker 😊, but I suppose you offer either way of course. 

[The Dog 44048]

6 minutes ago, Mstrat said:

Christian Javier, Framber Valdez and Justin Kyle Tucker among others are scheduled for arbitration in January. If Crane is playing the long game, that money is going to be getting spent where it belongs.

Good point and everyone should remember this. Those guys are going to get paid in arbitration. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by The Dog

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

11 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

The Astros have been in the top 11 for opening day payrolls in MLB for 5 years running and no doubt will be there in 2023. Hardly cheap. For the most part, the teams that go over the CBT are those with much bigger TV deals. 

Sure. But we were like 30M below the tax last year. 
And we damn sure better be in the top 11 in payroll, we are a top 10 market (Yanks, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, Philly, Braves all better than us- Cards, Rangers, Mariners pretty much on par with us) smack dab in the middle our winning World Series timeline so to not get to “top 11” status would be criminally negligent. 
I asked that as a question instead of making a declarative statement b/c I don’t really believe it, but it does have some data points that can support the idea. 

[Scraps 13561]

Weirdly seems as though like 90% of the bigger impact signings (just throwing out a number not sure if it is accurate) are going to the NL. AL teams aren't really doing much to improve themselves so far.

[David Dennison 18856]

Just now, Scraps said:

Weirdly seems as though like 90% of the bigger impact signings (just throwing out a number not sure if it is accurate) are going to the NL. AL teams aren't really doing much to improve themselves so far.

Maybe they've lost hope.

[TonyTexas 10512]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Good point and everyone should remember this. Those guys are going to get paid in arbitration. 

Here are the arb estimates 

Phil Maton (5.047): $2.5MM

Ryne Stanek (5.038): $3.1MM

Framber Valdez (3.163): $7.4MM

Kyle Tucker (3.079): $5.6MM

Jose Urquidy (3.049): $3.2MM

Cristian Javier (3.000): $3.3MM

Blake Taylor (3.000): $800K

Mauricio Dubon (2.162): $1.2MM

 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

2 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Here are the arb estimates 

Phil Maton (5.047): $2.5MM

Ryne Stanek (5.038): $3.1MM

Framber Valdez (3.163): $7.4MM

Kyle Tucker (3.079): $5.6MM

Jose Urquidy (3.049): $3.2MM

Cristian Javier (3.000): $3.3MM

Blake Taylor (3.000): $800K

Mauricio Dubon (2.162): $1.2MM

 

I see 4.5M I could save Crane to put toward a Contreras deal. 

[HtownHorn 14681]

28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Is it possible that Crane is secretly cheap? 
he talks every trade deadline about how we will go way into the tax for the right deal but it never materialized. 
our biggest FA outlay ever is like 60M under him, right?

The Yordan extension was of the variety of “you can’t afford not to do this- and now we are letting the Cardinals drink our milkshake on our self appointed #1 target over an insignificant amount of money. 

i don’t actually think he’s really cheap- but I think he damn sure talks more like a big swinging dick than actually acting like one. Interesting dynamic to watch play out this off-season. If the off-season becomes nothing more than JV out, Montero retained, Abreu signed and Brantley maybe brought in during spring training while way behind I can’t say that we actually got better, can you? I don’t think that’s how it all plays out. I certainly hope not. But it would be disappointing with as much swag as they displayed while kicking Click out. 

He's not cheap in terms of AAV, but I think he has severe reservations about long-term deals, and the data overwhelmingly supports his views. Supposedly, it's going to take 5 years to get Contreras now that 2+ teams are in the bidding. That's just too long for Contreras. I'd be happy with a 3-year deal where he gets $20M AAV, but giving him a 5-year deal at $16-18M AAV is probably a bridge too far for Crane.

[henrygandorf 29191]

28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Is it possible that Crane is secretly cheap? 
he talks every trade deadline about how we will go way into the tax for the right deal but it never materialized. 
our biggest FA outlay ever is like 60M under him, right?

The Yordan extension was of the variety of “you can’t afford not to do this- and now we are letting the Cardinals drink our milkshake on our self appointed #1 target over an insignificant amount of money. 

i don’t actually think he’s really cheap- but I think he damn sure talks more like a big swinging dick than actually acting like one. Interesting dynamic to watch play out this off-season. If the off-season becomes nothing more than JV out, Montero retained, Abreu signed and Brantley maybe brought in during spring training while way behind I can’t say that we actually got better, can you? I don’t think that’s how it all plays out. I certainly hope not. But it would be disappointing with as much swag as they displayed while kicking Click out. 

he's had acquisitions that involved some cash and risk (greinke), but he's always shown to be careful about signing free agents for above a certain amount (years or cash).  he probably talks big and then gets reminded that the system works.

also if we "don't actually get better" from the team that won 106 games and the world series, that might just be something you come to terms with.  personally i think we have, because we replace jv with hunter brown and yuli with abreu.  also the shift rules will help us next season.

nobody around us has gotten discernibly better except the rangers lol.  i'd like to see vazquez back if we don't get contreras.  he was always the 2nd guy out of the dugout to celebrate homers and big hits and you know that shit gets me hard.  would like to see us take a flyer on a conforto or benintendo too.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

4 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Weirdly seems as though like 90% of the bigger impact signings (just throwing out a number not sure if it is accurate) are going to the NL. AL teams aren't really doing much to improve themselves so far.

NL has been a better league for a while. While the NL East and the AL East are pretty comparable as far as markets go, the AL central is so much weaker than the NL Central b/c Cards and Cubs are the only 2 big make teams that are in the Midwest, and the NL has the rich and successful older brothers in the Dodgers and Giants to their mildly regarded black sheep little brothers in the Angels and Giants. That’s 4 more teams gonna spend money in the NL v the AL. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

he's had acquisitions that involved some cash and risk (greinke), but he's always shown to be careful about signing free agents for above a certain amount (years or cash).  he probably talks big and then gets reminded that the system works.

also if we "don't actually get better" from the team that won 106 games and the world series, that might just be something you come to terms with.  personally i think we have, because we replace jv with hunter brown and yuli with abreu.  also the shift rules will help us next season.

nobody around us has gotten discernibly better except the rangers lol.  i'd like to see vazquez back if we don't get contreras.  he was always the 2nd guy out of the dugout to celebrate homers and big hits and you know that shit gets me hard.  would like to see us take a flyer on a conforto or benintendo too.

I think all of this is right. 

if we do the last 2 sentences of your last paragraph we will have gotten better than last year.  Might not win more games or another WS but lots of that is health and luck. We would objectively be a better team with Vasquez back and playing more games than he did last year plus Conforto or Beni than we were last year. 

This year was an opportunity to get better that so

few teams have after winning a WS. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

6 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

He's not cheap in terms of AAV, but I think he has severe reservations about long-term deals, and the data overwhelmingly supports his views. Supposedly, it's going to take 5 years to get Contreras now that 2+ teams are in the bidding. That's just too long for Contreras. I'd be happy with a 3-year deal where he gets $20M AAV, but giving him a 5-year deal at $16-18M AAV is probably a bridge too far for Crane.

I guess it’s how you feel about 3 vs 5 years matters only to the extent you believe in the Astros prospects past 2025. I personally have 3 years circled and then a big step back bc we will no longer have 3 lowly paid high producing starting pitchers anymore and Tucker is certainly gone. 
To me- if you significantly enhance your ability to win a WS in the next 3 years at the cost of maybe eating a little bit of bad money in 26 or 26 and 27 I’m ok with that trade off because I’m bearish on the Astros chances of winning WS type teams in 2026 and on. I think there is a decent chance we either go into scramble to make the playoffs (once there everyone has a chip and a chair and a shot) if we sign Altuve and Bregman after 24, or we have multiple years of club control on Peña, Brown and Yordan, 1 year on Abreu, LMJ and Garcia and you decide to deal them all and start over again. That decision will depend on if they can add new dudes that are good to those 6 guys. If so then not having bad money for Contreras matters. If not then you will rue the missed opportunity of you don’t win multiple additional WS in the next 3 years. 
 

You  completely and totally nailed it with that first sentence I believe 

[henrygandorf 29191]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think all of this is right. 

if we do the last 2 sentences of your last paragraph we will have gotten better than last year.  Might not win more games or another WS but lots of that is health and luck. We would objectively be a better team with Vasquez back and playing more games than he did last year plus Conforto or Beni than we were last year. 

This year was an opportunity to get better that so

few teams have after winning a WS. 

also one could also argue some of our biggest competition took hits (so far). 

yankees did what they had to do, but now they have 40mm per in a guy on the wrong side of 30.  dodgers lost trea turner (and justin turner) and have missed on some free agents so far.  mets got jv which is fine - best spot for him imo, and he's a clean replacement for degrom so i don't think they got better.

phillies got better but they'll be in a dogfight in that division.  if the mariners had come on strong and made a splash i might start to worry, but that's not what's happening.  the central sucks, as you said, so as long as we win our division we're looking at a top 2 seed.  hard to nitpick.

it's clear we need outfield help.  everyone knows it.  if we don't get one now we'll get one in july.

[henrygandorf 29191]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m bearish on the Astros chances of winning WS type teams in 2026 and on

it's december, 2022 and this is what is keeping wulaw up at night.  i'll take it.

[HtownHorn 14681]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

also one could also argue some of our biggest competition took hits (so far). 

yankees did what they had to do, but now they have 40mm per in a guy on the wrong side of 30.  dodgers lost trea turner (and justin turner) and have missed on some free agents so far.  mets got jv which is fine - best spot for him imo, and he's a clean replacement for degrom so i don't think they got better.

phillies got better but they'll be in a dogfight in that division.  if the mariners had come on strong and made a splash i might start to worry, but that's not what's happening.  the central sucks, as you said, so as long as we win our division we're looking at a top 2 seed.  hard to nitpick.

it's clear we need outfield help.  everyone knows it.  if we don't get one now we'll get one in July.

We also made the Yankees overpay on Rizzo, and are likely forcing the Cardinals, a team that closely mirrors us in terms of team construction, into a longer term deal they usually don't give out.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

also one could also argue some of our biggest competition took hits (so far). 

yankees did what they had to do, but now they have 40mm per in a guy on the wrong side of 30.  dodgers lost trea turner (and justin turner) and have missed on some free agents so far.  mets got jv which is fine - best spot for him imo, and he's a clean replacement for degrom so i don't think they got better.

phillies got better but they'll be in a dogfight in that division.  if the mariners had come on strong and made a splash i might start to worry, but that's not what's happening.  the central sucks, as you said, so as long as we win our division we're looking at a top 2 seed.  hard to nitpick.

it's clear we need outfield help.  everyone knows it.  if we don't get one now we'll get one in july.

Yeah. I think that’s an accurate reading of what happened to our competition and is improving in relation to them. 
we haven’t been the best team in baseball for any year other than 2019 (maybe 2017- it was so damn close) during this run. With a good off-season we could definitely be the best team in baseball going into the year. That would be fun (for me anyway) and different. 
We need a catcher and we need an OF. Lot of offseason left but quickly running out of obvious upgrades and missing out on guys we have been tied to. 
This FO leaks too much/talks too much heading into the winter meetings. Ready for them to just get it done. 

[The Dog 44048]

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m bearish on the Astros chances of winning WS type teams in 2026 and on. I think there is a decent chance we either go into scramble to make the playoffs (once there everyone has a chip and a chair and a shot) if we sign Altuve and Bregman after 24

I think we re-sign both - depending on how productive they still are. regardless that's something the front office needs to be planning for is when those both leave. all these guys are starting to get old and we'll need replacements eventually.

but not right now so let's win a couple of more.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it's december, 2022 and this is what is keeping wulaw up at night.  i'll take it.

Thats a tremendous and funny line- I love it. 

You do have to have an opinion on what 2026 looks like in your mind when making decisions  in 2022 though. JL said that he used to conceptualize everything in 5 year budget terms. That’s why that would matter. Crane has 5 year max term contract offers so he likely sees it pretty similarly. 

Put more concisely: I’m much happier to borrow against the future today if I don’t think that borrowing will materially hurt my chance of winning it all then; AND I think it will materially help my chance of winning it all today. 

[The Dog 44048]

 

[Scraps 13561]

Aledmys Diaz to Oakland lol

[TonyTexas 10512]

19 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m bearish on the Astros chances of winning WS type teams in 2026

Many said the same thing a few years back about 2022

[Ojo Rojo 1965]

I think we should re-sign Brantley on a team friendly deal and roll the dice with his injury and age going into the season.  If he can't hit then get someone at the deadline.  I'd also re-sign Vasquez.  

[TonyTexas 10512]

Arson Contreras to the Cards……..maybe

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by TonyTexas

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

5/$87.5 for Contreras:

 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

7 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Many said the same thing a few years back about 2022

That’s absolutely true. Yordan becoming a superstar and not merely very good, while Javier and Framber became aces really made a huge sea change for this organization. I never thought we’d have a team better than 2019 but 2022 might have been and if we get another couple bats this year 2023 will be. 
that’s asking for a lot from your player development side (I think they have to produce 4 more all star or near all star level guys between now and then to be a serious WS contender), but if they can do it then yeah- that makes 2028 when Yordan and Brown are up the next inflection  point. 

[HtownHorn 14681]

6 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

5/$87.5 for Contreras:

 

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

10 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Arson Contreras to the Cards……..maybe

 

I was fine with 4/ 80 so I’d have definitely done 5/87.5. 
All Star catchers that hit well enough to be solid DH’s don’t grow on trees. Getting one of those guys for 17M a year seems like a steal. That’s basically Montero plus Stanek salary wise. 
They need 8-10 WAR to break even on that deal. I bet they get it. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[Js1 85333]

50 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

He's not cheap in terms of AAV, but I think he has severe reservations about long-term deals, and the data overwhelmingly supports his views.

I used to think he was cheap, but he's not; he just doesn't like long-term deals.

Click, though, was cheap. And it wasn't even his money to spend! 

[Scraps 13561]

Thank god Contreras is signed jfc

[wildcat09 29354]

If the rumors of him being a locker room pill are true, I'm fine missing out on Contreras. Let's bring Vasquez back and sign Conforto or Benintendi (I would love to see Benintendi not going all Jim Edmonds against us with someone else).

[UTPhil2006 3807]

I’m all for bringing Horns on board so I say yes to Justin Tucker. 

[formermav43 4606]

1 hour ago, LebongJames said:

If we are going to sign a veteran starter, I think Eovaldi would be a great insurance signing. He’s from Houston, has not been the most healthy but I can’t imagine he would be making more than we were paying Odorizzi (or however you spell his name)

They shouldn't sign any veteran starters. 

[WBT 20568]

3 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I wish I could put a bet down on how much the Yankees will still owe him when his body breaks down.  I bet it will be nine figures.

~1.5-2.0 Jimbos is my guess

[TonyTexas 10512]

1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I’m all for bringing Horns on board so I say yes to Justin Tucker. 

He could sing the national anthem and Deep in the Heart of Texas. 

[Mitch Hedberg 2090]

Not addressing the outfield and hoping Brantley comes back healthy would be front office malpractice. In the list of priorities it was always 1B, OF, C to me. I’ll be happy just resigning Vazquez. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

9 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

Not addressing the outfield and hoping Brantley comes back healthy would be front office malpractice. In the list of priorities it was always 1B, OF, C to me. I’ll be happy just resigning Vazquez. 

1000% man. I had C higher if it was Contreras, but if you aren’t going big splash then yeah- that’s the proper order.  It can’t be let’s hope Brantley is fine- it’s cool if we wait until March and don’t have any backup plans, right? 

[WBT 20568]

23 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

If the rumors of him being a locker room pill are true, I'm fine missing out on Contreras. Let's bring Vasquez back and sign Conforto or Benintendi (I would love to see Benintendi not going all Jim Edmonds against us with someone else).

As far as I can tell, the rumors of him being a locker room problem stem from Dusty saying he'd be unhappy that Dusty wouldn't play him ahead of Maldonado in his walk year.  Hardly Mitch Melusky type stuff here.

[henrygandorf 29191]

31 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

that makes 2028 when Yordan and Brown are up the next inflection  point. 

now we're talking about 2028 when arch manning will be in his 2nd year in the nfl and i'll be 52 fucking years old.

of course if we keep making deep playoff runs i may not see 2028.  playoff baseball is bad for life expectancy.