2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

[WBT 20562]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

The following players were traded away by their original teams as prospects:

Yordan Alvarez

Dansby Swanson

Trea Turner 

Willy Adames

Sandy Alcantara

Dylan Cease

Joe Musgrove

Thats 4 of the top 30 position players in 2022 fwar and 3 of the top 30 pitchers that were traded away as prospects.  The Astros discussed Kyle Tucker in Chris Sale trades a few years back but luckily didn’t pull the trigger.  Those trades go both ways. Wrt to the Greinke trade specifically, the Diamondbacks have already gotten more out of Rojas than the Astros got out of Greinke in terms of surplus production value and they have him for 4 more years, not to mention Beer and Martin are still in their system.  

Yeah, my first thought reading that was that the D'backs probably still won the trade.  But considering their competitiveness at the time, both teams can probably be happy with it.  I also don't remember if any cash changed hands.

And if the pen holds the lead in a certain Game 7, the answer definitely changes.

Edited January 12, 2023 by WBT

[runthebone 7977]

1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Fangraphs at one point created percentile outcomes on their top prospects lists, basically probability tables for performance outcomes for individual prospects. I’m sure teams have similar methods of estimating future value, and baked into that is the possibility that some guys will never produce any value. The assumption is that their predictive/odds methodologies are sound, and that such a thing can even be reasonably predicted. (I think it can.) So it’s basically an odds assessment.

But yeah, deadline trades like the Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee scared the piss out of a bunch of GMs for a long time. (As an aside, it’s a damn shame Sizemore couldn’t stay healthy - he was a tremendous player with HOF ability.)

I always assumed that after he got hurt, Grady Sizemore became a porn star and used his real name.

[TonyTexas 10510]

57 minutes ago, WBT said:

I also don't remember if any cash changed hands.

The Astros got $24M from the Diamondbacks. But Greinke’s contract had a lot of deferred money. I’m not sure if that cash was to cover their pro-rata share of the deferrals, to cover some of his salary or a combination of both. 

Edited January 12, 2023 by TonyTexas

[henrygandorf 29189]

47 minutes ago, WBT said:

Yeah, my first thought reading that was that the D'backs probably still won the trade. 

eh, one could argue (so far) that neither team really won that trade.  there was also cash involved so maybe it's harder to measure the impact.

as for the other examples of us bundling prospects for a front-line ace, the verlander, cole and randy johnson deals are all trades you do again in a second.  even the johnson deal, which at the time was seen as giving away the farm (mostly because we didn't advance). 

it was guillen, halama, and freddy garcia.  we gave up some productivity, but it's not like those guys were superstars that belong on that yordan/trea turner list.  freddy had a short little stretch in a long career.  guillen got better later with a different team.  halama was halama.  we also didn't have a deep farm system at the time, so i understand the debate.

in the case of guillen, and more recently guys like musgrove, when they find it later with a different team, like musgrove has with sd, that's not on us.  we traded him to pitt where he was completely mediocre.

we also took verlander and cole who at the time of their trades, were in a bit of a struggle, and we fixed them.  yeah, the trades look lopsided now, but at the time they happened, those weren't top 5 sp in baseball, which is how they performed with us. 

another overlooked deal (but a 1-1) was pressly, where we saw something in him and got him for nothing.  we turned him and his high spin rate into a top closer.  he wasn't a top closer when we got him.

our ability to assess value to players on other teams is what makes us such a dangerous trade partner.

[HtownHorn 14677]

33 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

The Astros got $24M from the Diamondbacks. But Greinke’s contract had a lot of deferred money. I’m not sure if that cash was to cover their pro-rata share of the deferrals, to cover some of his salary or a combination of both. 

I think we owe Greinke $12.5M until 2026 in deferrals.

[The Dog 44020]

Musgrove being part of the Cole trade was definitely a win for the Astros - he never panned out in Pittsburgh.

Then the Pirates traded him to SD mostly for prospects who are still in A-ball and he became a star. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I think the key is being honest about who you are trading for.  Don't empty the chamber for Jose Quintana just because he happens to be the best available pitcher currently on the market.  But if you have a chance to acquire a legit star (anecdotally: Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander, Greinke, the rumored Bryce Harper deal) then I think that's the scenario where the packages are "almost always" worth it, at least in my eyes.

Yep. And the Randy Johnson trade is about the best example for both teams of how a deal like that could work out.  They got lots of value from us.  we got an insane and transcendent stretch run that we still talk about 25 years later and it made for the best Astros team ever (at the time). We didn't cash in all our chips but it was absolutely worth it.  Seattle probably ended up with 20 or 30 WAR out of the deal, but nothing we couldn't ultimately replace and nothing that stopped us from going to the playoffs 4 more times over the next 7 years. 

[tx 3 putt 76908]

7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep. And the Randy Johnson trade is about the best example for both teams of how a deal like that could work out.  They got lots of value from us.  we got an insane and transcendent stretch run that we still talk about 25 years later and it made for the best Astros team ever (at the time). We didn't cash in all our chips but it was absolutely worth it.  Seattle probably ended up with 20 or 30 WAR out of the deal, but nothing we couldn't ultimately replace and nothing that stopped us from going to the playoffs 4 more times over the next 7 years. 

running into that Padres buzz saw in the playoffs suuuuuuucked 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

9 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

running into that Padres buzz saw in the playoffs suuuuuuucked 

Fuck Kevin Brown.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

John Halama- 5.6 total War, 5.5 Career war for Mariners.  4.8 War in 1999 alone!

Carlos Guillen- 27.7 total War.  9.1 WAR for Seattle.  3.3 was the highest WAR for Seattle in 2001

Freddy Garcia- 34.2 Total War.  18.5 WAR for Seattle.  5.4 WAR for Seattle was the highest he ever got in 1999.  

The 1999 Astros rotation was Lima, Hampton, Reynolds, Holt and Sean Bregman.  Bregman and Holt were pretty terrible with a combined record of 9/19 and a combined ERA around 5.00.  All that being said the Astros won the division, and got beat 3-1.  With the off days in the series Reynolds went 2 times, hampton went 1 time and Lima went 1 time.  Reynolds went 1-1 against Maddux, Lima gave up 4 ER in 6.2 innings to get a loss and Jay Powell got tagged for the loss in the Hampton start.  I honestly don't think that either Halama or Garcia would have pitched over any of our top 3 that year.  We'd have won the division in a romp instead of stumblebummfucking our way down the wire with the Reds maybe?  The Pirates? I don't even remember to be honest.  But, I don't think any of those guys, even with their best season, swing that series in any way.  

[The Dog 44020]

 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

It's crazy to me to think that the Dodgers might actually suck balls this year.  How awesome is that?  And by suck balls I mean win 91 games and finish 3rd in their division if a lot of stuff doesn't break right for them.  But, instead of leading the league going away in wins, RS, RA, differential etc like they have the majority of the past 10 years they should be sucking our dick in the regular season, the same way they suck dick in the playoffs.  I for one look forward to seeing that happen. 

[tx 3 putt 76908]

Padres v Dodgers will be a fun watch this season. People are sleeping on the M’s. If they can take a step forward, they’ll be a very dangerous team 

Edited January 12, 2023 by tx 3 putt

[Gourmand 7774]

2 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Fuck Kevin Brown.

With Jim Leyritz's sterling bitchcock

[UTexasFight 9432]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

This should probably make everyone sit up and realize maybe our lineup last year wasn’t that bad.

I know by reading this thread we all hated our offense but what of substance will change for 2023? Abreu for Yuli is about all I see. Sure that’s a pretty large upgrade at an offensive position, but does that move from a generally accepted middle of the pack offense to #1?

[HtownHorn 14677]

9 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

This should probably make everyone sit up and realize maybe our lineup last year wasn’t that bad.

I know by reading this thread we all hated our offense but what of substance will change for 2023? Abreu for Yuli is about all I see. Sure that’s a pretty large upgrade at an offensive position, but does that move from a generally accepted middle of the pack offense to #1?

If you consider the 30 starters at each position. I think it breaks down something like this for offense.

C - Maldonado, Last

1B - Abreu, Top 10

2B - Altuve, #1

SS - Pena, Top 15

3B - Bregman, Top 5

LF - Brantley, Top 20

CF - McCormick, Bottom 10

RF - Tucker, Top 3

DH - Alvarez, #1

[tx 3 putt 76908]

37 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

This should probably make everyone sit up and realize maybe our lineup last year wasn’t that bad.

I know by reading this thread we all hated our offense but what of substance will change for 2023? Abreu for Yuli is about all I see. Sure that’s a pretty large upgrade at an offensive position, but does that move from a generally accepted middle of the pack offense to #1?

May Surly Astros Thread - cut the entire team and fire everyone !!!!

[runthebone 7977]

1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

If you consider the 30 starters at each position. I think it breaks down something like this for offense.

C - Maldonado, Last

1B - Abreu, Top 10

2B - Altuve, #1

SS - Pena, Top 15

3B - Bregman, Top 5

LF - Brantley, Top 20

CF - McCormick, Bottom 10

RF - Tucker, Top 3

DH - Alvarez, #1

I'm not sure Maldonado is last.  He might be 70th.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

If you consider the 30 starters at each position. I think it breaks down something like this for offense.

C - Maldonado, Last

1B - Abreu, Top 10

2B - Altuve, #1

SS - Pena, Top 15

3B - Bregman, Top 5

LF - Brantley, Top 20

CF - McCormick, Bottom 10

RF - Tucker, Top 3

DH - Alvarez, #1

McCormick is top 15 not bottom 10. Other than that I think you nailed the list. 

[tx 3 putt 76908]

Contract extension speculation for Framber and Javier : 

Framber : 6 years / $120 mil

Javier : 4 year / $75 mil 

https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/astros-framber-valdez-cristian-javier-17690773.php

Edited January 12, 2023 by tx 3 putt

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

15 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Contract extension speculation for Framber and Javier : 

Framber : 6 years / $120 mil

Javier : 4 year / $75 mil 

https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/astros-framber-valdez-cristian-javier-17690773.php

That would be 3 years of arb for a Framber and then 3/75. That’s probably fair. 
that’s a terrible extension for Javier. Written by a moron who doesn’t understand shit. 
at absolute most Javier would get 3/35 in arbitration. That’s buying out 1 year of FA for $40M. Colossally stupid. Fuck I’m dumber for having read that. I want to take a baseball bat to that guys computer so he can never spread his stupidity to the greater world. My god what a moron. 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[tx 3 putt 76908]

I like reading this, over and over …

Altuve  

Peña

Alvarez

Bregman

Tucker

Abreu 

Chaz

Machete 

Brantley 

 

I hope we get to see brantley hitting 9th some, in front of Altuve 

[The Dog 44020]

 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

19 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Yeah but Trout has 1 more post season hit than me. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

Yeah but Trout has 1 more post season hit than me. 

David Hensley has 1 more postseason hit than Mike Trout.

[Scraps 13561]

Shredder just put Chas #10 CF

[tx 3 putt 76908]

23 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Shredder just put Chas #10 CF

I’ll take the #10 cf 

 

[runthebone 7977]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

No surpise when you consider he is the greatest Honduran World Series player ever.

[UTexasFight 9432]

11 minutes ago, runthebone said:

No surpise when you consider he is the greatest Honduran World Series player ever.

Only because Gerald Young had absolutely no help around him I’m the late 80s.

[runthebone 7977]

27 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Only because Gerald Young had absolutely no help around him I’m the late 80s.

Then G-Man should have carried his team to the title like Dubon did.

Fact:  the Astros have won the championship in 100% of Dubon's seasons

 

 

[Dondrysdale1 363]

Is Jorge Alfaro someone the Stros have looked at at all?

[tx 3 putt 76908]

 

[tx 3 putt 76908]

11 minutes ago, Dondrysdale1 said:

Is Jorge Alfaro someone the Stros have looked at at all?

zero at bats or playing time for the padres during the playoffs and he was tendered, so we would lose a draft pick I believe 

[tx 3 putt 76908]

 

[tx 3 putt 76908]

 

[Dutchrudder 11138]

23 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

So he will be 22 when Pena becomes a free agent? Sounds like a good replacement plan if it pans out...

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

For as incredible as this entire Astros story has been the one thing missing is any of their big money developmental signing guys working out. Yuli doesn’t count because that cake was already baked and he was 46 years old already when he signed. 
I guess if you believe the rumors that the zdodgers and Astros collided and Chester with Yordan Alvarez you can credit us for him, but zi’d not sure I buy that. 
Honestly, Leon has gotten closer to the bigs than any of those guys. 
Would love to see that piece of the developmental machine kick in, but it would be pretty greedy to be too upset about that not

working out for us, all things considered. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[Gourmand 7774]

17 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

For as incredible as this entire Astros story has been the one thing missing is any of their big money developmental signing guys working out. Yuli doesn’t count because that cake was already baked and he was 46 years old already when he signed. 
I guess if you believe the rumors that the zdodgers and Astros collided and Chester with Yordan Alvarez you can credit us for him, but zi’d not sure I buy that. 
Honestly, Leon has gotten closer to the bigs than any of those guys. 
Would love to see that piece of the developmental machine kick in, but it would be pretty greedy to be too upset about that not

working out for us, all things considered. 

You're forgetting one very important and undervalued international acquisition who helped build a foundation for the Astros pitching dominance.

In 2015 they signed 17-year-old Dominican OF Gilberto Celestino (and current teammate of Carlos Correa) to a contract with a $2.25 million bonus. Celestino was packaged with fellow Dominican pitcher Jorge Alcala and traded to Minnesota for the guy who threw the last pitch of the 2022 MLB season. 

[Mez2 4023]

14 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

Dubon  fucks

[HtownHorn 14677]

37 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

For as incredible as this entire Astros story has been the one thing missing is any of their big money developmental signing guys working out. Yuli doesn’t count because that cake was already baked and he was 46 years old already when he signed. 
I guess if you believe the rumors that the zdodgers and Astros collided and Chester with Yordan Alvarez you can credit us for him, but zi’d not sure I buy that. 
Honestly, Leon has gotten closer to the bigs than any of those guys. 
Would love to see that piece of the developmental machine kick in, but it would be pretty greedy to be too upset about that not

working out for us, all things considered. 

Who was that OF we signed like 10 years ago, that we were going crazy over. I think he got a record bonus from the Astros at the time.

[Gourmand 7774]

4 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Who was that OF we signed like 10 years ago, that we were going crazy over. I think he got a record bonus from the Astros at the time.

Ha, I was about to ask the same question. Combing through old MilB stats trying to jog the memory. He barely made it past low A iirc.

edit: Ariel Ovando

Edited January 13, 2023 by Gourmand

[HtownHorn 14677]

1 minute ago, Gourmand said:

Ha, I was about to ask the same question. Combing through old MilB stats trying to jog the memory. He barely made it past low A iirc.

I think he was Ariel Ovando.

[Gourmand 7774]

"We’re extremely excited to get Ariel into the Astros organization,” general manager Ed Wade said. "Ariel profiles as a middle-of-the-order power hitter with excellent defensive skills."

Astros scouting director Bobby Heck described Ovando as an advanced hitter for his age who reminds him of Jason Heyward, Fred McGriff and Carlos Delgado.

[Snake Diggity 4622]

1 minute ago, Gourmand said:

"We’re extremely excited to get Ariel into the Astros organization,” general manager Ed Wade said. "Ariel profiles as a middle-of-the-order power hitter with excellent defensive skills."

Astros scouting director Bobby Heck described Ovando as an advanced hitter for his age who reminds him of Jason Heyward, Fred McGriff and Carlos Delgado.

I remember being excited about that.  What a bust.

[Gourmand 7774]

Yeah same and imo it just shows how crappy the McLane organization was run and managed compared to his successor and the hires he put in place to rebuild the organization from the bottom up.  

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

15 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

Yeah same and imo it just shows how crappy the McLane organization was run and managed compared to his successor and the hires he put in place to rebuild the organization from the bottom up.  

True in so many regards, but even the great JL had little success- but good catch on the trade piece for Presley. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[Gourmand 7774]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

but even the great JL had little success-

????

Framber, Javier, Garcia, Valdez....and that's not even including current Oriole reclamation project and success story Cionel Perez. 

Also we should note trades involving some of these guys that resulted in MLB returns: Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez for Christian Vazquez and Bryan de La Cruz/Austin Pruitt for Yimi Garcia 

[formermav43 4606]

16 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

McCormick is top 15 not bottom 10. Other than that I think you nailed the list. 

I’d say he’s likely top 10. If he’d have played all of his games in CF last season, his wRC+ would have ranked 6th (and that’s counting Judge as a CF).

Bottom 10 is laughable.

[Gourmand 7774]

This is hilarious to read almost ten years later

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1627250-prospect-pipeline-houston-astros-top-20-prospects-post-2013-mlb-draft

 

[rvm96 1643]

40 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

????

Framber, Javier, Garcia, Valdez....and that's not even including current Oriole reclamation project and success story Cionel Perez. 

Also we should note trades involving some of these guys that resulted in MLB returns: Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez for Christian Vazquez and Bryan de La Cruz/Austin Pruitt for Yimi Garcia 

Well Framber, Javier, Garcia and Valdez don't really apply to this topic