2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

[hornmpa96 2598]

Excited to see the new GM already getting things done. Extend Valdez and Tucker and continue dominating.

[formermav43 4599]

I still think extending Valdez is not a great idea.

[UTexasFight 9376]

12 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

I still think extending Valdez is not a great idea.

+1

[Dutchrudder 11115]

Looking ahead at the payroll for the next few years, the entire core is locked up for 2 more years through 2024. There isn't anyone really important that expires before then, which is kind of bonkers given the all around talent this team has. Lots of good young players in arbitration the next few years, lots of long term deals still in effect, it's a nice balance. The big needs in 2024 free agency will be Catcher and Outfield again, so hopefully they can find someone at the trade deadline this year to help with both those positions if nobody develops from within. 

Bregman will be 31 when the current deal expires, and Altuve will be 35 when his expires. Bregman certainly can get a good extension at 31, but Altuve at 35 is going to be on the downside of his career. I'm not sure what he would fetch on the market at that point, and I think a lot of that value is going to depend on his 2024 performance.  There are still a ton of great players locked up through 2025 and beyond, but you can't lose both Bregman and Altuve in 24 and expect to win a world series beyond that. They really should be looking to extend Alex at least, but he will definitely fetch a sizeable contract. 

This roster is in great shape, and they really don't have to do anything with it right now to make the window extend into 2025 and beyond (plenty of time before we worry about that), but it sure would be nice if they could. Locking up Tucker and Bregman would be superb, because it also helps focus other assets and draft picks towards other positions when making those choices. I'm happy they got Javier through 2027, and hopefully that's the target to extend the current group of players to remain competitive and winning World Series!

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/yearly/payroll/

Edited February 11, 2023 by Dutchrudder

[tx 3 putt 76315]

Bregman / Boras / Brown are talking 

[tx 3 putt 76315]

1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

I still think extending Valdez is not a great idea.

Depends on the numbers 

[UTHornFan014 710]

This Oxy patch makes me wanna gouge out my eyes... But as long as it helps us get everyone extended I guess I can tolerate it

[WBT 20415]

Wow, I didn't realize we were still paying Greinke that much for that long.

[Wulaw Horn 18974]

10 hours ago, formermav43 said:

I still think extending Valdez is not a great idea.

+2. If we do something like 6/90 I’m sure not going to complain- and he’s earned that- but I would have him more or less last on the list. 

[Wulaw Horn 18974]

6 hours ago, WBT said:

Wow, I didn't realize we were still paying Greinke that much for that long.

I Mean - we aren’t. Arizona sent over a check to cover all his deferred money and then some. 

[formermav43 4599]

9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Depends on the numbers 

Not really. Groundball pitchers tend to decline earlier than others, around 30. By 34, most of them are out of the game. Look at Keuchel for a good example we all know. Or Felix Hernandez-he entered decline *before* and retired at 33.

Valdez is one of the most extreme groundball pitchers of all time, more so than either of those guys. When he hits free agency, he’ll be 32. It’s more likely he’ll already be in decline while he’s still in arbitration than that he’ll be effective throughout the additional years of an extension.

[Wulaw Horn 18974]

10 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

Looking ahead at the payroll for the next few years, the entire core is locked up for 2 more years through 2024. There isn't anyone really important that expires before then, which is kind of bonkers given the all around talent this team has. Lots of good young players in arbitration the next few years, lots of long term deals still in effect, it's a nice balance. The big needs in 2024 free agency will be Catcher and Outfield again, so hopefully they can find someone at the trade deadline this year to help with both those positions if nobody develops from within. 

Bregman will be 31 when the current deal expires, and Altuve will be 35 when his expires. Bregman certainly can get a good extension at 31, but Altuve at 35 is going to be on the downside of his career. I'm not sure what he would fetch on the market at that point, and I think a lot of that value is going to depend on his 2024 performance.  There are still a ton of great players locked up through 2025 and beyond, but you can't lose both Bregman and Altuve in 24 and expect to win a world series beyond that. They really should be looking to extend Alex at least, but he will definitely fetch a sizeable contract. 

This roster is in great shape, and they really don't have to do anything with it right now to make the window extend into 2025 and beyond (plenty of time before we worry about that), but it sure would be nice if they could. Locking up Tucker and Bregman would be superb, because it also helps focus other assets and draft picks towards other positions when making those choices. I'm happy they got Javier through 2027, and hopefully that's the target to extend the current group of players to remain competitive and winning World Series!

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/yearly/payroll/

If lance is healthy and Whitley shows out

trade LMJ (and I love LMJ). Try Abreu at starter. If he sticks there cool- if not then he needs to be back end of the bullpen and you could extend him and trade Presley (after 2023). Let Brantley walk. That’s 44M.
That should be enough to extend:

Bregman (+10M a year from his current cap number of 20M- 5/150)

Altuve (net 0 from his current number of 26 something like 2/52),

Tucker (+20 from his current number of 5 for a 10/250 deal) 

Abreu - (+7 from current deal- 7/50)

Urquidy (+3 from current deal at 3M- 5/30).

that leaves Peña, Garcia and Brown to extend when Altuve, Bregman and Javier are coming up. 
 

that’s a net zero to the payroll (in a yearly sense) from where it is currently.  Really need Whitley or someone else to hit in the next 2 or 3 years and then it gets a lot easier. 
Love Love Love this new GM. Just further confirms all the shit we talked about Click was more or less right. 

[Wulaw Horn 18974]

2 hours ago, formermav43 said:

Not really. Groundball pitchers tend to decline earlier than others, around 30. By 34, most of them are out of the game. Look at Keuchel for a good example we all know. Or Felix Hernandez-he entered decline *before* and retired at 33.

Valdez is one of the most extreme groundball pitchers of all time, more so than either of those guys. When he hits free agency, he’ll be 32. It’s more likely he’ll already be in decline while he’s still in arbitration than that he’ll be effective throughout the additional years of an extension.

Add Brandon Webb to that list of ground ballers gone bad at 30 (his was injury). 
Kevin Brown is your analog if you are rooting for a Framber to be a good pitcher at 35 years old. He was a ground ball pitcher until age 32 and his last 3 years at 30, 31 and 32 he was at 2/1 ground balls. After that he became a 1.5/1 or less guy and was still good for another 5 years. Framber has really good stuff. Maybe he can make that transition. I’m skeptical though. 
 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[UTexasFight 9376]

40 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I Mean - we aren’t. Arizona sent over a check to cover all his deferred money and then some. 

How does that work toward luxury tax thresholds?

[TonyTexas 10481]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I Mean - we aren’t. Arizona sent over a check to cover all his deferred money and then some. 

I don’t think that’s right. The Dbacks sent $24M which covered the deferrals from the years of the contract that he was with them. 

[Gourmand 7774]

Y'all are crazy to think Framber shouldn't be extended. He's way better than Keuchel ever was. 

[Wulaw Horn 18974]

32 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

How does that work toward luxury tax thresholds?

It’s totally and completely taken out of the equation. 
If you owe 50 and they send 48 you now owe 2 for LT purposes and the other team owes the 48. 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[Wulaw Horn 18974]

3 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I don’t think that’s right. The Dbacks sent $24M which covered the deferrals from the years of the contract that he was with them. 

I don’t think the Astros owe that other 48 though which is the point. They took on 70M of money for his last 2.5 years and the Dbags paid 25m so the astros owed him 55 and that’s it. 
now- if some of that money over the 2.5 years is deferred I don’t know. 

[Hank Chinaski 6310]

9 hours ago, UTHornFan014 said:

 

 

(I know the ads are inevitable but goddamnit it will never not bug the shit out of me.)

[formermav43 4599]

25 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

Y'all are crazy to think Framber shouldn't be extended. He's way better than Keuchel ever was. 

So was Felix Hernandez.

But it's not about how good they are in their prime, it's about the aging curve of groundball pitchers. It's a near inevitability that they break down early.

Edited February 11, 2023 by formermav43

[Halohal 498]

 

Pupusa Sausage Dogs are a new food item at the ballpark for 2023

Texas Beef Tostadas are a new food

Meatball subs will be available at the La Stella Trattoria Stand in section 420

Funnel cake fries and cinnamon sugar pretzels

[tx 3 putt 76315]

Do the opposite of the surly thread = path to success 

[Guest]

Papusa dog torta thingy is probably $9.50.

[Wulaw Horn 18974]

1 minute ago, Halohal said:

 

Pupusa Sausage Dogs are a new food item at the ballpark for 2023

Texas Beef Tostadas are a new food

Meatball subs will be available at the La Stella Trattoria Stand in section 420

Funnel cake fries and cinnamon sugar pretzels

That’s gonna be a pass from me man. 

[Gourmand 7774]

34 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

So was Felix Hernandez.

But it's not about how good they are in their prime, it's about the aging curve of groundball pitchers. It's a near inevitability that they break down early.

I'm aware of the argument, but the point is Framber imo is an outlier (as he's always been throughout his career) and worth extending because of the relatively light wear-and-tear on his arm vs peers his own age and his excellent pitching repertoire. He's not just a groundball pitcher, he's the best groundball pitcher in MLB and it really isn't close. Also, he has earned a payday with his performance thus far and deserves to be rewarded commensurate with his achievements.

[Wulaw Horn 18974]

Just now, Gourmand said:

I'm aware of the argument, but the point is Framber imo is an outlier (as he's always been throughout his career) and worth extending because of the relatively light wear-and-tear on his arm vs peers his own age and his excellent pitching repertoire. He's not just a groundball pitcher, he's the best groundball pitcher in MLB and it really isn't close. Also, he has earned a payday with his performance thus far and deserves to be rewarded commensurate with his achievements.

I agree with that last part. 6/under 100 does all that. Any more and he can try his luck. 

[formermav43 4599]

1 minute ago, Gourmand said:

I'm aware of the argument, but the point is Framber imo is an outlier (as he's always been throughout his career) and worth extending because of the relatively light wear-and-tear on his arm vs peers his own age and his excellent pitching repertoire. He's not just a groundball pitcher, he's the best groundball pitcher in MLB and it really isn't close. Also, he has earned a payday with his performance thus far and deserves to be rewarded commensurate with his achievements.

1) That he is such an outlier - he is one of the most extreme groundball pitchers of all-time, not just currently - arguably makes him more of a risk, not less.

2) I do not agree with the last sentence at all. His pay should be based on future expectations, not past performance. The team can evaluate that much better than any of us can, so if they agree with your assessment that his production is likely to continue - that's great! But if he ages like 99% of groundball pitchers, then paying him at 32 for what he did at 28 is foolish. Let another, less savvy organization do that if they choose.

[Gourmand 7774]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

6/under 100 does all that.

Yeah that's where I'm at as well. I think a 5 yr deal with 18 million average is a worthwhile offer for both sides and it takes care of Framber for life while also giving him the chance to pursue another deal in his mid-30's if he's still showing out. 

[Gourmand 7774]

4 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

His pay should be based on future expectations, not past performance

you know that is not how these contracts are valued or negotiated. past performance is very much a part of the bottom line figures they settle on and teams routinely pay bigger money to aging players in the back end of contracts knowing there's a good chance the player's performance will fall off. 

[formermav43 4599]

3 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

you know that is not how these contracts are valued or negotiated. past performance is very much a part of the bottom line figures they settle on and teams routinely pay bigger money to aging players in the back end of contracts knowing there's a good chance the player's performance will fall off. 

Right. But I also know that the Astros have made it a practice to not sign those contracts in the first place, and it's a piece of why they have been so successful compared to those teams that do. Valdez seems to me like a guy you let play out his deal and walk, like they have with others before him.

[Gourmand 7774]

Just now, formermav43 said:

Right. But I also know that the Astros have made it a practice to not sign those contracts in the first place, and it's a piece of why they have been so successful compared to those teams that do. Valdez seems to me like a guy you let play out his deal and walk, like they have with others before him.

 I also know that extreme cut-throat business practices very likely cost them a chance at extending George Springer and hopefully Jim Crane learned from that. If the front office maximized the arbitration process and exerted maximum control over Framber without ever making a good-faith, fair extension offer, I think that could have a trickle down effect with other players and be a very bad look for the organization. 

As tx 3 putt said, it's all about the numbers and I'm not arguing for a 8 year/250 mm deal here but I think we all would agree that Framber Valdez is very underpaid vs his peers and deserves a raise. 

[formermav43 4599]

2 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

 I also know that extreme cut-throat business practices very likely cost them a chance at extending George Springer and hopefully Jim Crane learned from that. If the front office maximized the arbitration process and exerted maximum control over Framber without ever making a good-faith, fair extension offer, I think that could have a trickle down effect with other players and be a very bad look for the organization. 

As tx 3 putt said, it's all about the numbers and I'm not arguing for a 8 year/250 mm deal here but I think we all would agree that Framber Valdez is very underpaid vs his peers and deserves a raise. 

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this. I think we basically see the data the same way, we just don't agree on what the smart move is.

[Gourmand 7774]

12 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

like they have with others before him.

which ones?

they extended McCullers, Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, and now Javier. They tried to extend Keuchel but he turned down a very good offer. Same with Correa.
 

It's time to give Framber his money. 

[Gourmand 7774]

2 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this. I

nah it's way more fun to argue about how awesome Framber is. 

 

[Jshep34 2304]

Debate about the pitcher who lead the Astros to 2nd world series championship and set quality start record. Tough times being a Astros fan

[TonyTexas 10481]

39 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

) I do not agree with the last sentence at all. His pay should be based on future expectations, not past performance.

So you’d give Hunter Brown 10/$300M?

[formermav43 4599]

4 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

which ones?

they extended McCullers, Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, and now Javier. They tried to extend Keuchel but he turned down a very good offer. Same with Correa.
 

It's time to give Framber his money. 

You've already mentioned 3 of them for starters - Keuchel, Correa, Springer (whom you evidently view as a big loss, and I'd argue the jury is still out on given the length of the contract, not to mention the fact that Tucker made him unnecessary - he's not good in CF anymore).

That statement was made in the context of your statement that, "teams routinely pay bigger money to aging players in the back end of contracts knowing there's a good chance the player's performance will fall off." None of those deals fall into that category - the oldest player at the end of it will be Altuve, at 34, and his AAV is a bargain. But they wouldn't budge on the years for Correa. Springer will be heading into his age 38 season when he's a free agent. Etc. And every single guy you named they extended was younger than Valdez is now - and that's without taking into account the aging of groundball pitchers that we already have covered.

So the question is, is Valdez more like the young guys they extended, or the older guys they didn't want to give longterm deals to? Even at 5/$90 like you propose, is he more likely to be an effective starter at 34, or washed up before he even hits free agency? I don't think "giving him his money" based on what he did last year is smart, and I think the Astros history of NOT doing business that way is a good thing.  

[Gourmand 7774]

14 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

I also know that extreme cut-throat business practices very likely cost them a chance at extending George Springer

Btw it case any of you assholes missed it, my most hated ex-Chron Astros beat reporter appeared on Greg Rajan's podcast this week to hawk his new book about the Astros and discuss the shit we're tired of hearing about but also inside information about the Astros front office he learned from his time covering the Luhnow Astros. 

I hate to say it, but he came off better than I expected in this podcast (which I only listened to because I trust Rajan) and he revealed some interesting details outside of the sign-stealing scandal that I'd never heard before (re Springer and also AJ Hinch/Luhnow/JV trade). 

 https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/podcast/article/astros-evan-drellich-winning-fixes-everything-17770669.php

[formermav43 4599]

Quote

So you’d give Hunter Brown 10/$300M?

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by formermav43

[Fudge Nuggets 19146]

15 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

So you’d give Hunter Brown 10/$300M?

Should have made Whitley highest paid pitcher in history back in 2018.

[Gourmand 7774]

how many of these "aging groundball pitchers" signed at 21? how many innings did those guys have on their arms in their age 29 season vs Framber Valdez?

Framber is an anomaly and his age should not be used against him in negotiations by the organization given the light use on his arm and his ascendance to one of the premiere starting pitchers in MLB. The idea of the team using the CBA process to maximize their control over him and then telling him to hit the road once he hits UDFA status would be a very bad move and one that would not go unnoticed by other players. 

But I have faith they are talking and will not do him dirty as you would have them do.

 

[formermav43 4599]

8 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

how many of these "aging groundball pitchers" signed at 21? how many innings did those guys have on their arms in their age 29 season vs Framber Valdez?

Framber is an anomaly and his age should not be used against him in negotiations by the organization given the light use on his arm and his ascendance to one of the premiere starting pitchers in MLB. The idea of the team using the CBA process to maximize their control over him and then telling him to hit the road once he hits UDFA status would be a very bad move and one that would not go unnoticed by other players. 

But I have faith they are talking and will not do him dirty as you would have them do.

 

The idea that letting him go through the CBA process and then leaving as a free agent - the very thing that happens to countless other players  - is somehow doing him dirty is curious.

Edited February 11, 2023 by formermav43

[formermav43 4599]

But to be clear, if you want to give him more money now because he has outperformed his contract or to help clubhouse morale or whatever - great. There's plenty of room under the luxury tax, and there aren't any more moves coming this offseason. Give him every bit of it while he's still under team control if you want.

But I still wouldn't tack on any more years. I think by the time he's a free agent, that money will be better spent elsewhere. 

[Gourmand 7774]

3 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

The idea that letting him go through the CBA process and then leaving as a free agent - the very thing that happens to countless other players  - is somehow doing him dirty is curious.

You're missing a key point here. He is free to leave and test the market, but if he does so without the organization making a fair and reasonable extension offer along the way as you'd have them do is not only dirty but exceptionally dirty. You seem to forget that players talk to each other and they all understand how the CBA process works and they understand how their current performance should be rewarded in future negotiations. They all understand that young guys gotta pay their dues before they can get paid big time and all that work they did in their controllable years is used to pay older players with more service time who may not have performed on the field as well as their younger counterparts. 

The Astros did not want to lose any of the aforementioned players and all of them were engaged in talks with the front office along the way but the parties could not agree on the years or total dollars. The reason I specifically brought up Springer was not because of the contract he eventually got in FA and whether it's fairly valued but the manner in which the team approached him early on to sign a deal (without his agent present) and how that left an impression on Springer. 

 

[Gourmand 7774]

10 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

But to be clear, if you want to give him more money now because he has outperformed his contract or to help clubhouse morale or whatever - great. There's plenty of room under the luxury tax, and there aren't any more moves coming this offseason. Give him every bit of it while he's still under team control if you want.

But I still wouldn't tack on any more years. I think by the time he's a free agent, that money will be better spent elsewhere. 

i generally agree with this but i think it's worth the risk to give him a 5 year deal right now that would pay him through his age 33 season. 

[formermav43 4599]

18 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

You're missing a key point here. He is free to leave and test the market, but if he does so without the organization making a fair and reasonable extension offer along the way as you'd have them do is not only dirty but exceptionally dirty. You seem to forget that players talk to each other and they all understand how the CBA process works and they understand how their current performance should be rewarded in future negotiations. They all understand that young guys gotta pay their dues before they can get paid big time and all that work they did in their controllable years is used to pay older players with more service time who may not have performed on the field as well as their younger counterparts.  

 

 

12 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

i generally agree with this but i think it's worth the risk to give him a 5 year deal right now that would pay him through his age 33 season. 

I think our key disagreement is on what a "fair and reasonable" extension offer is in this case. We have 2 typical categories here: what the Astros (and Braves in particular lately) have liked doing, giving a young guy an extension that buys out some of his arbitration and early free agent years at what will likely be below market value then in exchange for giving him security up front; and the classic megadeal for a guy who hits free agency in his prime, where you are paying for the next 3-5 years of production with the understanding that you are basically eating the back half of the contract and giving him security then.

The problem with extending Valdez is that he doesn't really fall into either of those categories. The whole point in either of those cases is to try to control a guy in his prime, and you are either paying up front instead of him getting the minimum, or you are paying him at the end of his career when he might otherwise be out of the league. Valdez is in his prime NOW. He's already under team control. And I'd argue he's more likely to be washed when he hits free agency than he is to be an above average starter at 33.

Edited February 11, 2023 by formermav43

[tx 3 putt 76315]

1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

So you’d give Hunter Brown 10/$300M?

2 yr / $400mil for Whitley 

[Gourmand 7774]

Well I also disagree with your truth gospel that all 30+ groundball pitchers will wash out. 

[TonyTexas 10481]

 

[formermav43 4599]

1 minute ago, Gourmand said:

Well I also disagree with your truth gospel that all 30+ groundball pitchers will wash out. 

I don't believe I have said "all." I have said they tend to, it's nearly inevitable, etc.  That's not "my truth," that's what the data says.

So you have to bank on Valdez being the rare exception.