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2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

tx 3 putt

By tx 3 putt
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tx 3 putt
tx 3 putt

You wanted us. You got us.  You got your asses beat !   Let's do it again in 2023     

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

love these articles and comments from the mlb media about marring a world series or how the baseball world will be critical of the astros for this move. get. the. fuck. out. with. that. nonsense.

MaybeACoordinator
MaybeACoordinator

Going through old pics because of the death of my grandmother / mom and came across this -- 1996, my son's first Astros game.

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5868

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5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i just don't see them ever swallowing the idea of being in "rebuild mode" so they'll continue to throw money at the problem and you never know what blind squirrels are going to find.  other than the dodgers, there's nobody else you would predict to be ~competitive for the next 10 years.

except of course, us.

I mean the blind squirrel did find an acorn in 2009 😉  That acorn is now a teenager haha.  Astros just need to win 6 more to tie the MFY, 3 more to tie the LAD & STL, 2 more to tie BOS & OAK,  1 to tie BAL, CIN, & SFG then they can just say "since we have been a franchise"

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19151

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21 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

Why do you choose 1997 as the inflection point here? Serious question.  Just because it was 25 years ago?

Because it was the first division title in 11 years and marked the beginning of a 9 year run that would see us make the playoffs 6 times and the World Series for the first time ever. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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yeah, 1998 was our best team ever (at that point) and that was right around when we went from constant struggling team to making the playoffs more often than not.

if you were a "great astro" in the 60's, 70's, and 80's, it involved mostly regular season success, consistency, and being a fan favorite type.

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formermav43

formermav43 4606

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3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

he played 3rd / ss his entire career, until he signed with the astros

That means he hasn't done it since 2015. That will be 8 years ago, and that's a pretty big 8 years between 31 and 39 in terms of athletic ability. The defensive metrics suggest he no longer has the range to play first base, let alone anything more demanding.

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CycleTex87

CycleTex87 2981

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24 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

yeah, 1998 was our best team ever (at that point) and that was right around when we went from constant struggling team to making the playoffs more often than not.

if you were a "great astro" in the 60's, 70's, and 80's, it involved mostly regular season success, consistency, and being a fan favorite type.

Killer B’s, Caminiti, Jose Lima, Mike Hampton, etc. I member. 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9528

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20 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

That means he hasn't done it since 2015. That will be 8 years ago, and that's a pretty big 8 years between 31 and 39 in terms of athletic ability. The defensive metrics suggest he no longer has the range to play first base, let alone anything more demanding.

He played 42 games at third in 2019.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19151

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, I imagine the Blue Jays GM kind of wants to keep his job.

Chas McCormick the last 2 seasons has had 26M in surplus value. 
George Springer the last 2 seasons has 1.4M in surplus value. 
next year -George Springer is likely projected to have somewhere between negative value and $10M in surplus value. (Based upon w projection of 3-4 WAR. 
next year- Chas McCormick is projected to have roughly 15M of surplus value. 
George Springer has 4/100M left on his contract 

He‘s projected to have negative surplus value during that time. 

Chas McCormick has 4 years of club control left. He’s projected to make roughly 15M. He’s projected, over those 4 years to have roughly $50M worth of surplus value. 
 

This entire exercise is predicated upon the idea that Toronto wants to sign JV but doesn’t have the room to give him what he wants unless the unload salary, which has been stated in multiple outlets in the last week or two. I have no idea if they actually do want to do it. From an accounting and WAR perspective they are likely to come out ahead on that trade, especially if they repurpose that money to other places that have more glaring needs. I have no idea if they’d entertain discussions of moving Springer. I don’t know who they’d look to move. The deals not illogical. 
 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19220

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7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Chas McCormick the last 2 seasons has had 26M in surplus value. 
George Springer the last 2 seasons has 1.4M in surplus value. 
next year -George Springer is likely projected to have somewhere between negative value and $10M in surplus value. (Based upon w projection of 3-4 WAR. 
next year- Chas McCormick is projected to have roughly 15M of surplus value. 
George Springer has 4/100M left on his contract 

He‘s projected to have negative surplus value during that time. 

Chas McCormick has 4 years of club control left. He’s projected to make roughly 15M. He’s projected, over those 4 years to have roughly $50M worth of surplus value. 
 

This entire exercise is predicated upon the idea that Toronto wants to sign JV but doesn’t have the room to give him what he wants unless the unload salary, which has been stated in multiple outlets in the last week or two. I have no idea if they actually do want to do it. From an accounting and WAR perspective they are likely to come out ahead on that trade, especially if they repurpose that money to other places that have more glaring needs. I have no idea if they’d entertain discussions of moving Springer. I don’t know who they’d look to move. The deals not illogical. 
 

When they hand out trophies for wins plus money left in the bank, get back to me.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19151

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10 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

When they hand out trophies for wins plus money left in the bank, get back to me.

That’s the reason the Astros would do the deal, because they are beyond that because they have a high enough floor created by the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, excellent and cheap starting pitching. If you have to buy that on the open market as a mid level revenue club you have to make sacrifices elsewhere.

Looking at stats and projections though it’s sort of obvious the Astros would be dumb to do that deal. They would be better off just signing Nimmo to a 5/125 deal at 29 than taking on Georges 32-35 year seasons at the same AAV as Nimmo. With the age curve going on Nimmo will probably outproduce Springer over the next 5 years anyway.  

Again- it’s not about money left in the bank. It’s about creating efficiencies in 1 area so that you can spend in another area. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19151

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In 2020 both our vehicles broke and we bought 2 “new” cars. 
I bought a 4 year old Camry with 30k miles on it for $22,000. My wife got a 3 year old basic Ford F-150 with 22k miles on it for $24,000.00. 
My first choice would have been an Audi. Her first choice would have been a $50k SUV of some sort. 
the $1000 a month savings from going cheaper on our vehicles allowed us to move from a 250k house in the burbs to a 500k place with 6 acres and a pool in the sticks for the same monthly payment. We’re those two vehicles as good as the other vehicles we’d have bought first choice?  NO!  Are we glad we went that direction so we could afford the wife’s dream house? Yes. 

Like me, the Toronto Blue Jays have a budget. They’ve got their eye on the dream house (JV on a 3/130M contract. They are going to have to downgrade somewhere else. Chas Mccormick is a perfectly solid, low-mileage Toyota Camry or Ford F-150. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19151

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5 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Damn yall really know how to kill boners around here

Nah man, the astros have it all wired. They are figuring out now if they want to buy a kickass second house on the beach or in the mountains, or if they want to buy a condo on the beach and a condo in Vail. 
That is massive boner time. 
 

The Angels are the 30k millionaires with the cool car and kick ass rims (trout and Ohtani) that live in their Moms basement. 
Oakland is working through credit counseling not paying any of their bills with a 480 credit score, hoping to settle with their credit card collectors for 10 cents on the dollar. 
The Rangers are the stripper that just got a boob job (simien and seager) hoping to tuen the head of the right degenerate that will sweep them off their feet. 
The Mariners just got out of school and are making decent money, hoping they can some day out earn their current crippling student loan debt. 
The Yanks are old money, pissed off that they are being snubbed at the country club for the new tech multimillionaire who has actual fuck you money. 

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11150

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Wow, Abreu is an awesome pickup and a definite upgrade from Yuli.  Yuli is getting really old for the game, I think it would be best for him to retire now, but I guess we'll see what he does.  Here's what ESPN thinks of the signing:

 

Quote

Jose Abreu signs three-year deal with the Astros

 

The deal: Three years reportedly for $58.5 million

Grade: B+

After nine seasons with the White Sox -- a terrific run that included six 100-RBI seasons and the 2020 American League MVP Award -- Abreu is signing with the Astros. It's a move that seemed a strong possibility given the White Sox had indicated they wanted to play Andrew Vaughn at first base and the Astros needed a first baseman with Yuli Gurriel being a free agent who is coming off a bad season. Still, it's a painful loss for the White Sox, as Abreu was a reliable run producer and durable presence in the lineup, playing 150-plus games in six of his eight full seasons (and playing every game in COVID-19-shortened 2020).

That durability and good health is one reason Abreu has continued to age well, hitting .304/.378/.446 with the White Sox in 2022 in his age-35 season, good for a 137 wRC+, ranking fifth among qualified first basemen. It was a different sort of production from Abreu, however, as he hit just 15 home runs, a career low, as was his .446 slugging percentage. Abreu's exit velocity remained elite with a hard-hit rate in the 97th percentile, but his average launch angle dipped a couple of degrees, leading to more line drives and fewer fly balls that cleared the fence. Abreu has always been a hitter with power as opposed to a true power hitter (his launch angles have always been less than ideal compared to the best home run sluggers), but given a career-low strikeout rate in 2022 of 16.2%, there did seem to be some real changes in his approach that emphasized average over power.

It worked last season, but there's also a scenario in which he hits .261 (like he did in 2021) with 15 home runs (like 2022), and then you're looking at a league-average-type first baseman rather than the 4.2-WAR player Abreu was in 2022. Indeed, with a three-year deal, Abreu's age is a big factor in how this contract plays out. Over the past 10 seasons, only two first basemen/DHs have produced a 4.0-WAR season at age 36 or older -- David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz both did it twice. Only three others have produced a 3-WAR season at 36 or older: Ortiz again, plus Gurriel and Joey Votto, both in 2021.

Still, at least for 2023, this projects as a sizable improvement for the Astros, as their first basemen were worth minus-0.4 bWAR. Abreu does ground into a lot of double plays, so I like him more in the sixth spot in the lineup rather than third or fourth, assuming Dusty Baker sticks with the Jose Altuve-Jeremy Pena-Yordan Alvarez-Alex Bregman-Kyle Tucker order that he used throughout the postseason. There is a downgrade on defense, but the Astros do have interest in bringing Gurriel back. You could certainly see a scenario where he plays some first base while Abreu DHs.

One final thought: With Abreu coming in at $19.5 million, it will be interesting to see what this means for Justin Verlander's future in Houston. The payroll is now at $197 million, via FanGraphs data. The Astros have gone higher -- including what would have been about $224 million in 2020 -- but with Verlander expected to receive something in the range of two years and $72 million (or higher), a $36 million average annual value would push the Astros over the luxury tax threshold of $233 million. They have the rotation depth to absorb losing Verlander, but this does make it more likely he's pitching somewhere else in 2023. -- David Schoenfield

 

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WBT

WBT 20666

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Fangraphs

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jose-abreu-fits-the-astros-like-a-glove/

Spoiler

José Abreu Fits the Astros Like a Glove

by Ben Clemens sm_tw_200.png
November 29, 2022
USATSI_18693036.jpg © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The Astros capped off a dominant postseason run with a World Series title that showed off a well-rounded and star-studded organization. They won with great starting pitching, great relief pitching, powerful hitting, and excellent defense. This wasn’t a case of a few guys getting hot and carrying a moribund offense, or a heroic member of the rotation piling up innings that no one counted on. The team stacked with good players up and down the roster simply deployed them as expected, and got a parade for its trouble.

It’s funny, in that context, to note that one of the best offenses in baseball had a clear hole at first base. Yuli Gurriel, the longtime incumbent at the position, had an abysmal year, compiling a .242/.288/.360 batting line that represented his second-worst performance in the majors (and his second poor showing in three years). The Astros scored runs at a gaudy clip despite his decline, but they didn’t bury their heads in the sand about Gurriel; they traded for Trey Mancini at the deadline to shore up their first-base options.

 

Bad news: Mancini wasn’t very good either. He and Gurriel combined to rack up -1.4 WAR with Houston. Yeesh. By the time the playoffs rolled around, the Astros were using unheralded rookie David Hensley as a right-handed DH in lieu of Mancini. It worked well enough to win, but it was a strange look for a team already punting on offense at catcher.

It would hardly have been a surprise if the team looked at the data, shrugged, and wrote Gurriel a check to hold the position down next year. He’s a fan and team favorite, and owner Jim Crane has purportedly taken an active role in negotiations since firing GM James Click. Houston’s offense was good enough with Gurriel at his worst, so how much worse could it be next year, even if he didn’t recover?

As you probably already know, either by the title of this article or by following the news, that didn’t happen. The Astros signed José Abreu, the top free agent first baseman on my top 50 free agent rankings, to a three-year deal worth $58.5 million, as Bob Nightengale, Chandler Rome and Mark Berman reported.

I love this deal. In my opinion, Abreu is one of the most underrated players in the game. All he’s done throughout his major league career is hit, and hit, and hit some more. His wRC+ in 2022 was a robust 137. It’s also 137 over the three years of his just-completed contract, and 133 for his career. His worst single-season mark was a still-solid 114 in 2018. He simply seems immune to variance. He mixes power and contact in a way that only the best hitters in baseball can match. Unless you’re a special talent, you simply can’t swing as hard as he does without accruing a messy pile of strikeouts.

 

There are a few ways to accomplish that trick. The “easiest,” by some definitions of easy, is to simply avoid swinging at bad pitches. You can’t wave over a curveball below the zone if you never swing at it. That’s an obvious good strategy, but it’s easier said than done. Most hitters, by definition, don’t have elite strike zone recognition. Abreu falls into the category of “most hitters” – he chases bad pitches slightly more often than the average major leaguer.

Another option: never miss when you swing. That’s another obvious one that’s difficult to do. Everyone attempts it, of course, but the easy ways to make better contact are to swing at better pitches or swing with less ferocity. That’s not Abreu’s plan either. This season was only the second year of his career where he posted a swinging strike rate lower than the major league average, and his career contact rate is ordinary.

Abreu’s trick is subtler. Despite that average overall contact rate, he’s excellent with two strikes, which means that his early swings punish him less. He’s also very aggressive overall, which combines with his average contact to result in a ton of balls in play early in the count. Sure, he’s not going to walk very much – 7% for his career – but that’s a fine price to pay when you’re making up for it with a big fat pile of extra-base hits. He’s even developing more patience over time; the two best walk rates of his career have come in the last two years.

Despite the best plate discipline of his career, 2022 wasn’t Abreu’s best overall offensive season. That’s because his power ticked down slightly this year; he hit only 15 home runs en route to a .141 isolated power, the lowest of his nine-year career. I’m not worried by that, though. He continued to crush the ball, with his barrel rate declining by much less than his power output. In fact, he underperformed his expected Statcast numbers by a decent amount, and still placed in the 89th percentile or higher for every conceivable hard-hit statistic. I wouldn’t worry about Abreu suddenly losing his power, in other words.

And Abreu’s production will fit perfectly into Houston’s lineup. With Michael Brantley reaching free agency along with Gurriel and Mancini, they had an offensive void to fill. That’s not exactly how baseball works – they could simply accept worse offense, or count on improvement from incumbents to make up any shortfall. But in practice, it made sense for them to replace like with like, and in that particular sense, getting a pile of offense out of a single hitter is just what the doctor ordered. It’s even in a great shape for the particulars of their team; Abreu’s high OBP is a nice fit, as is the fact that a ton of it comes from hits, given that the Astros frequently flood the basepaths.

As for the particulars of the deal, it makes good sense to me. I had pegged Abreu for two years and $18 million per year in my contract estimates, but early contracts have all come in slightly higher than my projections, which makes this right in line with the rest of the market. I don’t think there’s much risk of Abreu falling off a cliff, so the Astros should have first base locked up for a bit. There’s also not much chance of Houston falling out of contention, another way that deals for veteran hitters can go wrong. As an added bonus, Abreu should be able to rotate to DH if necessary at least some of the time; Yordan Alvarez, the incumbent DH, spent plenty of last year in left field. He’s not great out there, but if Abreu needs the occasional day off of his feet, I think the situation should work out just fine.

 

All in all, this feels like a solid deal for both sides. Houston needed more offense at first base. Abreu probably wanted to continue playing for a contender; he was the one constant in Chicago’s rise to relevance, and it would be strange to leave after that impressive climb and start over at age 36. I expected him to return to Chicago, but this feels like an equally good landing spot, if not a better one: he’ll fit right into the team’s contention window and likely into the clubhouse as well.

Houston’s offseason doesn’t go from confusing to great with this one signing. They still have an unsettled front office and a pending Justin Verlander decision. The AL West isn’t getting any easier; the Mariners are here to stay and the Angels are doing their best to maximize the last year before Shohei Ohtani hits free agency. Next year won’t be a cakewalk by any means. By adding Abreu, though, Houston has added some margin for error. We know they can win the division even with no production at first base. Now they’ve added another bat that can help pick up shortcomings elsewhere.

 

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