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2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

tx 3 putt

By tx 3 putt
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tx 3 putt
tx 3 putt

You wanted us. You got us.  You got your asses beat !   Let's do it again in 2023     

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

love these articles and comments from the mlb media about marring a world series or how the baseball world will be critical of the astros for this move. get. the. fuck. out. with. that. nonsense.

MaybeACoordinator
MaybeACoordinator

Going through old pics because of the death of my grandmother / mom and came across this -- 1996, my son's first Astros game.

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,525

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What’s the basis for the disdain for Ausmus as GM besides lack of FO experience? Bagwell is obviously a proponent of on-field baseball experience in the front office and will advise accordingly. Ausmus obviously had that and is supposedly hella smart with a Dartmouth degree.  Most importantly, our trust in Crane should be closing in on unconditional. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6,320

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1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

That Sucks The Office GIF
 

I generally do trust that Crane will not abandon the approach that has been so successful, but things like this concern me.

I love Bagwell. I love him in the booth. But the way that he doesn’t seem to understand the analytics - for example, he mocks exit velo and other metrics that have real meaning - makes me nervous if he is having real input into roster management. The “baseball isn’t played by numbers” sentiment is all too reminiscent of the “computers don’t play the games” tropes that indicate a fundamental misunderstanding of what the data are actually used for.

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,525

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The Astros have a multitude of analytics guys that aren’t going anywhere. Bagwell is just talking about adding other perspectives to the mix. Dusty provides some of that. A good example is that Click and his analytics supposedly was against Peña hitting 2nd. Dusty disagreed. How did that work out once Dusty got his way?

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,525

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8 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

Bagwell and Ausmus are/would be the barrier between the analytical group and players. Take the info from analytical people and put it in language players can understand and use it.

Sounds like you mean bridge instead barrier. 

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kevwun

kevwun 15,881

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A guy who doesn't believe in analytics isn't going to be very good at translating it for others.  Besides, most of the team came up in the organization and are more familiar with using what the analytics guys provide than Bagwell or Ausmus are.  That is a solution in search of a problem.

Edited by kevwun
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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9,528

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40 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

 

I generally do trust that Crane will not abandon the approach that has been so successful, but things like this concern me.

I love Bagwell. I love him in the booth. But the way that he doesn’t seem to understand the analytics - for example, he mocks exit velo and other metrics that have real meaning - makes me nervous if he is having real input into roster management. The “baseball isn’t played by numbers” sentiment is all too reminiscent of the “computers don’t play the games” tropes that indicate a fundamental misunderstanding of what the data are actually used for.

As one who just recently rewatched Moneyball …and listened to this episode of the Freakonomics podcast, this is our concern, dude.

 

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/did-michael-lewis-just-get-lucky-with-moneyball/

 (Worth a listen imo.)

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,525

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7 minutes ago, kevwun said:

A guy who doesn't believe in analytics isn't going to be very good at translating it for others.  Besides, most of the team came up in the organization and are more familiar with using what the analytics guys provide than Bagwell or Ausmus are.  That is a solution in search of a problem.

While I would agree with you about Bagwell, I think he remains in the special adviser role. I’m really talking more about Ausmus as GM. He is not an anti-analytics guy. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-brad-ausmus-embraced-analytics-aced-his-angels-interview/

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Planet Houston

Planet Houston 4,930

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Late to the party. Super excited about the Abreu signing. 

Y’all don’t have to worry about analytics being out of the front office. Crane knows how to run a business, it’s obvious that analytics are a massive part of running a team, but he’s not going to let it be the be-all end-all (ahem, Mr. Click). It’s about finding the right balance.

Crane insisted on bringing back Yuli and Brantley. Was that the right decision from a purely analytics perspective with hindsight? I’m sure no - Yuli was awful in the regular season and Brantley sure enough got hurt at an older age. But did the moves pay off? I’d say yes. We have no insight into exactly what goes on in the clubhouse, but there’s no arguing they’re each valuable beyond what they did not bring to the table last year. In addition to being a very respected presence in the clubhouse, Yuli struck out once in ~50 postseason ABs. And Brantley’s taking the offense to task after Game 3 is well documented. At the same time, Crane’s not stupid, and he sees the shortcomings that the analytics likely said would play out.

So, again, it’s a sign of balance. We don’t have a GM and Crane plugged that first “non-analytics” hole with the Abreu signing. Chill. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,151

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25 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


I wouldn’t trust either with managing the minor league system 

I wouldn't trust either with anything big picture at all in the organization.  Rocket Scientists and Math Quant nerds and Computer geeks and business consultants have worked just fine for us taking care of the big picture shit.  Development, coaching, managing sure- that should have input from players and the like.  But the skills necessary to manage a complex organization with 100's of employees doing completely different and discrete jobs are not particularly likely to have been developed by guys that played MLB, at least not without lots of runway and after playing days training.  

Also, I'm always concerned that when people talk about guys like Brad A being smart what they really mean is "smart for a ballplayer".  Which is different than "smart for a high level CEO type of a billion dollar entity in one of the most ruthlessly competitive landscapes that can be imagined.  

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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Pimphand

Pimphand 5,867

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19 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Also, I'm always concerned that when people talk about guys like Brad A being smart what they really mean is "smart for a ballplayer".  Which is different than "smart for a high level CEO type of a billion dollar entity in one of the most ruthlessly competitive landscapes that can be imagined.  

Yes but can he show the Sooners where we have running water in the state fair?  I'm not even sure he can complete that menial task.

Not going to fret the decision until the decision is made and then I'm sure my initial impression will be disappointment.  To review initial impressions...

Bill Wood: too young to know what a GM was
Bob Watson: loved B-Dub as a player but hiring a hitting coach?
Gerry Hunsicker: whew thankfully sanity was restored by hiring an actual assistant GM
Tim Purpura: this seems like a massive downgrade
Ed Wade: ok back to hiring someone reasonable
Jeff Luhnow: HOLY LIVING FUCK WE DID IT!!!
James Click: I mean the Rays are a solid respectable franchise but feels like a rich man's Tim Purpura

Postscripts
Bill Wood: still too young to know what he did good or bad just know the team was mostly mediocre
Bob Watson: RIP sir aint mad at cha for taking a job you shouldn't have been offered
Gerry Hunsicker: HATE HATE HATE that he is with the Doyers and still sad to this day he left
Tim Purpura: Nice job fuckstick
Ed Wade: Arbiter of the McLane dumpster fire ain't mad at cha
Jeff Luhnow: The one thing you can eat shit over Crane is firing and not re-hiring Luhnow
James Click: Thank you for stewarding the post cheating scandal and keeping the train on the tracks best of luck in future endeavors

Overall we've had two amazing badass GMs (including the GOAT) a couple of head scratchers and one solid not spectacular GM and one "game manager" GM.

The good news is I definitely trust Crane more than McLane but that's a low bar to cross.

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WBT

WBT 20,662

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6 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

The Astros have a multitude of analytics guys that aren’t going anywhere. Bagwell is just talking about adding other perspectives to the mix. Dusty provides some of that. A good example is that Click and his analytics supposedly was against Peña hitting 2nd. Dusty disagreed. How did that work out once Dusty got his way?

batting order doesn't make a shit?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,151

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1 hour ago, WBT said:

batting order doesn't make a shit?

I mean, yeah. Not really. But a little bit. Like 1 or 2 games a year max and probably not even that. But, it can make a difference if you think it makes a difference. Probably shouldn’t underestimate the idea of shared superstition if everyone believes the same thing and it allows an even keel to be kept. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6,320

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean, yeah. Not really. But a little bit. Like 1 or 2 games a year max and probably not even that. But, it can make a difference if you think it makes a difference. Probably shouldn’t underestimate the idea of shared superstition if everyone believes the same thing and it allows an even keel to be kept. 

It irrationally drives me crazy. In my mind, there is no reason not to play the numbers and maximize potential run production, ever. I understand that it doesn’t matter that much, big picture. But again, why wouldn’t you always try to maximize your odds? And if Dubon goes 2/4 while hitting second IT WAS STILL THE WRONG DECISION.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,151

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22 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

It irrationally drives me crazy. In my mind, there is no reason not to play the numbers and maximize potential run production, ever. I understand that it doesn’t matter that much, big picture. But again, why wouldn’t you always try to maximize your odds? And if Dubon goes 2/4 while hitting second IT WAS STILL THE WRONG DECISION.

Agreed completely.  But I think we already established both of us are borderline Aspy, right?
There is a lot to be said in any human endeavor for a mediocre/good plan with 100% buy in being better than a great plan with lousy buy in. 

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