2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There is a lot to be said in any human endeavor for a mediocre/good plan with 100% buy in being better than a great plan with lousy buy in. 

Maybe, but goddamnit the level of buy-in should be commensurate with the level of data support!

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

2 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Maybe, but goddamnit the level of buy-in should be commensurate with the level of data support!

In a rational world or organization, sure. Have you ever been around baseball players?  They’d fuck a goat if they thought it would help them get a knock the next night. And, it’s the kind of sport where if you think it helps then there’s a very real chance that it actually does help. We can get real metaphysical here or we can just shrug and accept it for what it is. 
the one thing you do have to be completely rational about is the quality of player that you being into the organization. It’s why Yuli must go. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

Not easy to comprehend Bagwells comment that the Astros took analytics too far. Hopefully he’s not pointing to a WS victory as falling short of a goal. Or is he implying that Click was trying to make ill advised moves over the last year and Crane saved the team by using Bags and Reggie’s advice?

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not easy to comprehend Bagwells comment that the Astros took analytics too far. Hopefully he’s not pointing to a WS victory as falling short of a goal. Or is he implying that Click was trying to make ill advised moves over the last year and Crane saved the team by using Bags and Reggie’s advice?

Probably the second part. 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

While I agree that it all needs to be a mix analytics and baseball knowledge, bagwell is way too much ‘anti’ analytics. As long as crane has people around him that sway the other way to counter bagwell’s view 
 

I’ve always felt that baker was a good mix of old school and new school 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

hmm 

[TonyTexas 10512]

^^^

 

Quote

The Astros are in discussions with free agent Willson Contreras and plan to meet with him at the winter meetings, according to a source briefed on the situation.

Astros owner Jim Crane quashed a Jośe Urquidy-for-Contreras trade at the deadline, as first reported by ESPN. But the circumstances are different now.

Rather than Urquidy, Contreras would cost the Astros their second-highest draft pick and $500,000 from their international bonus pool. Contreras, meanwhile, would not need to worry about losing playing time in the middle of his walk year.

The Astros like Contreras in part because he can play left field, particularly at Minute Maid Park, which has the second-smallest left field in the majors after Fenway Park. Most of Contreras’ limited time in left was in 2016, his rookie season. But in theory, he could alternate with Yordan Alvarez in left and at DH while also catching on occasion.

The question is whether Contreras, 30, still would want to be paid like a catcher while playing a less significant defensive role.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by TonyTexas

[WBT 20571]

26 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

The question is whether Contreras, 30, still would want to be paid like a catcher while playing a less significant defensive role.

Is it really a question?

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

I mean, yes- he will still want to be paid like a catcher. He needs to catch like 50 or 60

games for this to make sense to me. Then, 2024 he can go back to full time catcher (90 or 100 games) and DH when Yordan plays the field. 
If they really do have 45 more million to spend You could do this and Nimmo. I think that might be the most talented roster ever (at least since baseball became baseball and integrated and played west of the Mississippi River. 

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

so Maldo is out? Damn! I'd love to keep Machete just because he's the best whisperer in the sport.

I have NBA contracts in my head so baseball figures seem really low and it's hard to find a website with reliable numbers.  So, experts, how much money does Houston have left for free agents? Can they afford JV with his NBA demands, along with the coveted FAs? 

[Snake Diggity 4624]

7 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

so Maldo is out? Damn! I'd love to keep Machete just because he's the best whisperer in the sport.

I have NBA contracts in my head so baseball figures seem really low and it's hard to find a website with reliable numbers.  So, experts, how much money does Houston have left for free agents? Can they afford JV with his NBA demands, along with the coveted FAs? 

Should have roughly $30M to add to the 2023 payroll before hitting the first CBT threshold.  

[tx 3 putt 76957]

 

[henrygandorf 29191]

7 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Should have roughly $30M to add to the 2023 payroll before hitting the first CBT threshold.  

we also have an owner who said he would potentially spend past it.

of course you could also argue we don't really need verlander if we're scoring 10 runs a game.

[UTexasFight 9446]

7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

we also have an owner who said he would potentially spend past it.

of course you could also argue we don't really need verlander if we're scoring 10 runs a game.

Which is good because in the postseason when Verlander starts, you could also argue we need to score at least 10 runs a game.

[LCHorn 2620]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

hmm 

I think this is either a) Rosenthal making shit up or b) really investigatory by the Astros.  I think they are looking for a defensive upgrade over Alvarez in LF and Contreras doesn't help there. 

[formermav43 4606]

48 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

so Maldo is out? Damn! I'd love to keep Machete just because he's the best whisperer in the sport.

No. He’s under contract.

[tx 3 putt 76957]

 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Hate us because you ain’t us 

 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Missed this , new cf screen soon …

 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

 

[CycleTex87 2970]

5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

This is interesting. Bagwell acting as de facto GM?

[Macklemore 2872]

3 hours ago, CycleTex87 said:

This is interesting. Bagwell acting as de facto GM?

All of this handwringing over Bagwell’s involvement will end when Sig or Stearns comes back. Crane is not an idiot and will want a disciple of the GOAT, the man responsible for the empire that has been built, to be GM. If Bagwell does become GM, I will lose my shit with the rest of y’all.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Macklemore

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

Obviously Contreras is an elite offensive catcher, but can any of the stat nerds quantify his value if we are playing him mostly in LF/DH?  Does his bat still profile well at those spots or would we be better off chasing a legit OF?

[texashorne 1178]

4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Obviously Contreras is an elite offensive catcher, but can any of the stat nerds quantify his value if we are playing him mostly in LF/DH?  Does his bat still profile well at those spots or would we be better off chasing a legit OF?

I could be wrong, but if the Astros FO feel strongly about Chas, Meyers, and Leon that may push them to stay away from the free agent outfielders this cycle. And if they bring in Contreras to play LF when he's not the part time catcher, then that may speak volumes about what they know about Brantley and his injury. 

[Snake Diggity 4624]

9 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

we also have an owner who said he would potentially spend past it.

of course you could also argue we don't really need verlander if we're scoring 10 runs a game.

I also saw something where MLB sold some tech to Disney that will result in a $30M windfall for each team this year.  Between that and the extra revenue for winning the World Series there’s no reason Houston shouldn’t field a top 5 payroll, which means going well over the first threshold.  Another thing to note is that the Astros spent well below their budget in 2022; that’s one of the reasons Click was fired.  So they should have leftover money as well.  Finally, there’s still a huge potential windfall lingering out there from Crane’s lawsuit against McLane for the tv network snafu.

All that being said, I don’t expect Houston to go over $230M in payroll by opening day.  I think they’ll sign 1-2 more 3rd tier contracts (in the $10-$20 AAV range) and maybe 1-2 4th tier contracts (<$10M AAV).  I don’t expect them to sign Verlander.  But it’s certainly feasible if Crane wants to go there.

[Snake Diggity 4624]

18 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Obviously Contreras is an elite offensive catcher, but can any of the stat nerds quantify his value if we are playing him mostly in LF/DH?  Does his bat still profile well at those spots or would we be better off chasing a legit OF?

I don’t think anyone would want to pen him in as an everyday LF.  But offensively he would still rate as a well above average hitter for that position; he projects to have similar production to Haniger or Brantley or Benintendi.  I think the idea with Houston signing Contreras would be they want to bring him in without displacing Maldonado as the primary catcher, and obviously you don’t sign someone like Contreras unless you intend for him to be an everyday player.  So if he’s only going to get 50-60 games at catcher, how do you get him 70-80 games elsewhere.  If he can get 55 games at catcher, 55 at DH, and then be a serviceable backup at 1B or LF and get 10 games at each of those positions, you get his bat in the lineup full time without displacing any established starters.  I personally think Contreras would be fine playing 10-20 games in LF in MMP while Alvarez DHs or takes a day off.  Especially considering that if the game situation changes you can always put in a better defender like Dubon or Meyers.  Contreras for $70M/4yrs or less would be a really good deal for the Astros.

[Murfdogg21 4412]

Letting Bagwell play GM feels like a successful businessman handing over running the business to his incompetent son or SIL. Sure the owner loves him, but is the most qualified to keep the business successful, especially when he publicly rejects the methods that made the business successful?

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

10 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Should have roughly $30M to add to the 2023 payroll before hitting the first CBT threshold.  

Conforto and Contreras would probably be 33M or 35M if they wanted to go that direction, right?  So, if 30M is the number they could add those two and subtract Maton and Dubon and get there. I don't think they will do that, necessarily (I'm guessing one or the other) but it would be my preference.

[runthebone 7982]

My main thing at this point is making sure that we maintain elite defense with everyday player additions.

[Murfdogg21 4412]

11 minutes ago, runthebone said:

My main thing at this point is making sure that we maintain kicking the shit out of the Yankees.

Fify

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

3 minutes ago, runthebone said:

My main thing at this point is making sure that we maintain elite defense with everyday player additions.

Yeah, and playing Contreras in LF would not help there. That (potential) move doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. He’s played 39 games in the OF in his career, and just 15 since 2016 (23 total innings in the OF since 2017). He’s a good (not great) hitter.

If we are keeping Maldy around, I’d probably just try to bring back Vazquez, a better defensive C than Contreras, and sing an actual OF (I like the idea of Conforto). 

[Mitch Hedberg 2090]

I’m not sure why we keep trying to put these square pegs in round holes in the outfield. If Contreras isn’t going to be the everyday catcher for the most part then I don’t see the point. We can’t keep getting more unathletic in the outfield. We can’t hide them all in Minute Maids left field. Yordan made some decent plays and throws but he’s probably not going to make the diving athletic catch to save a run or game and neither will Contreras. And I don’t want Yordan out there diving or crashing into walls anyway. And with potentially more ground balls getting through the infield without the shift, being able to run, scoop and throw to keep runners from scoring or taking the extra base will be even more important. Listen, I’m as much of a fantasy baseball GM as anyone and I like having a lineup of 9 guys hitting bombs but defense does matter in real life. Go get a real outfielder if Maldy is going to play everyday. If Contreras is going to DH then we probably will have to carry a third catcher which makes us even more unathletic or give less lineup versatility. Contreras is a great hitting catcher but as an outfielder I’d rather get same production from a guy who can play it. My only other thought is this is some chess/checkers big picture move and Crane sees Contreras the catcher after one more year of Maldy and we’re stocking up for the long run. Maybe that makes sense. We get by this year and we still have Meyers and Leon as young guys than play OF. This stuff is fun on a computer but it’s got to be a rush in real life playing this game. Next week should be a lot of fun at the winter meetings. 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Obviously Contreras is an elite offensive catcher, but can any of the stat nerds quantify his value if we are playing him mostly in LF/DH?  Does his bat still profile well at those spots or would we be better off chasing a legit OF?

His last 4 years of hitting (from 2019 to present) he was 27, 6 (2020- so weird and short season), 9 and 28% better than league average with the bat.  There is undoubtedly a penalty paid at the plate to catching, by being banded up and worn down throughout the course of the year.  In his career he has started something like 530 games at catcher and 92 at DH (mostly) with some OF and 1B mixed in sporadically.  

He is where I like the numbers to be from a walk and power/iso percentage.  Non MVP caliber players you figure if you get an extra 100 points of OBP over BA and 200 points of slugging over BA that's baseline really good for a productive player. For his career he's 256/349/459 so he's right there.  Last year he was better than that at 106 on OBP and 223 on Slugging as his iso.  Slightly lower BA.  I'd expect him to go 250/350/460 or so next year which would be basically approximating Alex Bregman's offensive production from the year as his closest analog.  He'd end up at the same overall production as Kyle Tucker but with more walks and a little less thump. Yeah, that would play just fine at 1B or DH or LF, but becomes way less valuable than doing that at catcher, obviously.  His bat is good enough to play anywhere in the lineup.  For a guy hitting 7th like I think he would it just gets stupid.  Hell- if he's playing catcher and we sign a guy like Conforto (which I think we will) or Brantley (rather not but if that's the floor with him healthy that's pretty good) you are literally talking about him being your 8th place hitter.  So yeah, plug in Alex Bregman or Kyle Tucker clone into 8th place in your lineup when you decide you want to go with an offensive lineup- recognize then your weakest hitter becomes, by far, Jeremy Pena, who is league average- and your only other hitter in the lineup who is "only" 10% better than league average is Chas McCormick, dream on Pena getting better and it makes your head want to explode.  

[Mitch Hedberg 2090]

Sorry. On my phone and didn’t realize I’d typed so much. That’s too damn long lol

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

3 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Yeah, and playing Contreras in LF would not help there. That (potential) move doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. He’s played 39 games in the OF in his career, and just 15 since 2016 (23 total innings in the OF since 2017). He’s a good (not great) hitter.

If we are keeping Maldy around, I’d probably just try to bring back Vazquez, a better defensive C than Contreras, and sing an actual OF (I like the idea of Conforto). 

This is just fine as an idea. It does limit the upside of a full death star lineup at catcher for 50 or 60 games a year but it's obviously a better defensive lineup.  if we brought in Vaszquez and he's with the team from the beginning of the year I'd like to think he gets 60 or 70 percent of the split as he's a very very good defensive catcher (he's better than Maldy by all metrics and nobody who has played with him or watched him bitches about how he calls a game) and league average batter.  I think the main reason he didn't supplant Maldy was the guys didn't want to mess with what they'd been doing all year.  If he had spring training and broke camp with the guys that would be a different story.  

[TonyTexas 10512]

The only way that a Contreras signing makes sense to me is if they are thinking he will be the main catcher in 2024 and beyond. In 2023, get him ABs where they can at C, DH, LF and  work closely with Maldy for a season to help improve his defense. 

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah, that would play just fine at 1B or DH or LF, but becomes way less valuable than doing that at catcher, obviously.   

This is the thing - you’d pay a premium for him because he’s the rare catcher that can hit…then you wouldn’t even play him at catcher for 1/2 of the season? So not only are you getting less value than you paid for by not playing him at catcher 75% of the time, but you probably have to expect a further decline in value based on his (probable) bad LF defense. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Hank Chinaski

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

6 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

I’m not sure why we keep trying to put these square pegs in round holes in the outfield. If Contreras isn’t going to be the everyday catcher for the most part then I don’t see the point. We can’t keep getting more unathletic in the outfield. We can’t hide them all in Minute Maids left field. Yordan made some decent plays and throws but he’s probably not going to make the diving athletic catch to save a run or game and neither will Contreras. And I don’t want Yordan out there diving or crashing into walls anyway. And with potentially more ground balls getting through the infield without the shift, being able to run, scoop and throw to keep runners from scoring or taking the extra base will be even more important. Listen, I’m as much of a fantasy baseball GM as anyone and I like having a lineup of 9 guys hitting bombs but defense does matter in real life. Go get a real outfielder if Maldy is going to play everyday. If Contreras is going to DH then we probably will have to carry a third catcher which makes us even more unathletic or give less lineup versatility. Contreras is a great hitting catcher but as an outfielder I’d rather get same production from a guy who can play it. My only other thought is this is some chess/checkers big picture move and Crane sees Contreras the catcher after one more year of Maldy and we’re stocking up for the long run. Maybe that makes sense. We get by this year and we still have Meyers and Leon as young guys than play OF. This stuff is fun on a computer but it’s got to be a rush in real life playing this game. Next week should be a lot of fun at the winter meetings. 

I'm in basic agreement with this post, just have a couple things I don't fully endorse... 1- I think you are overstating OF defense a bit, especially as it pertains to LF at MMP.  You aren't scoring for 1B on a double down the line unless the fielder is well and truly a donkey, and there just isn't a whole lot of are to cover as playing at normal depth any ball hit over your head is a wallbanger or a HR.  Every movement should be in for an OF and that makes it a lot easier.  2- as long as you have quality CF play and Kyle Tucker in LF overall OF defense is going to be good.  But yeah, if all Contreras is ever going to do is DH or play LF I agree with you, that should probably be a pass.  

I think you are correct in your thinking on the last point though. My suspicion is that they all know this is Maldy's last year to play regularly bulk of the game starting catcher and they figure that Contreres can help plug 3 holes this year (backup catcher/ LF for Yordan when you don't want him there/ DH at other times) with 1 roster spot and then move back to catching if/when Meyers and Leon are ready to go.  Then, Chas becomes your 4th OF that pretty much only plays against LHP, which he hits at an all star level, and Yordan only plays the field 100 games, max.  All that is completely and totally logic plan for 2024 and beyond.  Lee becomes your backup catcher provided his defense is good enough (all indications are that it is) and gets you within 10-20% of league average as a bat.  

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

4 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

This is the thing - you’d pay a premium for him because he’s the rare catcher that can hit…then you wouldn’t even play him at catcher for 1/2 of the season? So not only are you getting less value than you paid for by not playing him at catcher 75% of the time, but you probably have to expect a further decline in value based on his (probable) bad LF defense. 

Sure.  But if the bat is even better by not having to catch that's more valuable, and there is also value in filling 3 roster holes with 1 guy, on a team where roster spots are so valuable (backup catcher, LF when Yordan is not out there, DH when Yordan is playing the field). I'd rather he catch 110 games but I've given up on the Astros fixation with Maldonado.  

But but but Wulaw Horn, we just won the WS with Maldy catching you big dummy.  Nobody else could possibly call a game as good as him to allow checks notes... JV/Framber/LMJ to be awesome at pitching he's the secret to their success.  His game calling ability.  What- Vazquez caught like 31 innings in the playoffs and gave up like 2 runs and called a no hitter?  Irrelevant.  Sigh.  

Edited November 30, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Coffee tastes a little better this morning. 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

The overall context to this offseason is this:

I might be passionately arguing for something like bringing in Contreras and Conforto b/c it would be awesome and just over the top funny and would have me giggling every day of the off season waiting to see it play out in the real world, but we are going to do something else to get better even if it's not that.  Even if it's bringing back Brantley and signing a reasonable veteran backup catcher, and then going and (probably) overpaying for a LHRP this team is going to get better than it is on 11/30/2022, and what it is on 11/30/22 is the best team in the league and one of the best teams ever. 

We could do exactly what I want, create the best team ever, and then go win 120 games during the regular season (seriously- I think that team could if they stayed healthy and everyone had the kind of year they are projected to have- doesn't take any hero play- just performing to capabilities and decent health) and at the end of the day that would be awesome, we could have the ML record for wins, and it wouldn't make it one bit more likely that we would win the world series.  It doesn't matter what you do, with this new playoff format you are going to top out at about 33% odds to win the WS (maybe 28 or 29%).  Even if we won 120 games it's likely that we would have 3 or 4 stretches where we went 2-3 over a 5 day period, or 3-4 over a 7 day period, and if you time that wrong in the playoffs that's enough to offset and defeat even the greatest team ever constructed.  

As much as I love the Astros and admire and respect them and what they've done and who they are I can't with a straight face argue that we've been the "better" team than the Dodgers the last 7 years.  They've won more games than us.  They've probably played a harder schedule than us over that time.  Yet we've won 4 pennants and 2 WS to their 3 and 1.  Would it really surprise if we were actually better than them next year but they won it all while we bowed out in the ALCS? Nah, that wouldn't be a shock at all.  

Edited November 30, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[WBT 20571]

If you signed Contreras with the idea of him being the starting catcher in 2024...why wait?  Besides the fact that Maldonado has somehow brainwashed the organization and most of the fanbase into thinking he's the only competent defensive catcher in the world.

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Brantley >>> conforto, imo if I’m signing LF’s coming off injury 

crane just reminded all of mlb yesterday who’s in charge. He pushed every mlb contender into reactionary mode, drove up the price on judge and maybe sent some front offices into panic mode. Then proclaims at the news conference, we’re not done yet. Probably drive up the price on verlander too. 

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

2 minutes ago, WBT said:

If you signed Contreras with the idea of him being the starting catcher in 2024...why wait?  Besides the fact that Maldonado has somehow brainwashed the organization and most of the fanbase into thinking he's the only competent defensive catcher in the world.

I wouldn't.  But the brainwashing of the organization and fanbase is almost complete.  Of course, if we put it to a vote like 80% of the fanbase would bring back a washed Yuli and sign Brantley to a deal right now even though he's probably broken, so... people don't like making change to a successful organization.  We've been successful.  Ergo, bring back the same cast of characters.  

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Unpopular opinion : let one of the prospects play back up catcher. Let’s see what we have in Lee / Diaz / maybe berry hill. If it’s not working out, make an move at the deadline.  We shouldn’t sign someone unless it’s club friendly 

[TonyTexas 10512]

2 minutes ago, WBT said:

If you signed Contreras with the idea of him being the starting catcher in 2024...why wait?  Besides the fact that Maldonado has somehow brainwashed the organization and most of the fanbase into thinking he's the only competent defensive catcher in the world.

Because he can fill some other holes in the lineup, particularly at DH that Maldy can’t. The Astros could kick that can down the road into next offseason. 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

Brantley >>> conforto, imo if I’m signing LF’s coming off injury 

crane just reminded all of mlb yesterday who’s in charge. He pushed every mlb contender into reactionary mode, drove up the price on judge and maybe sent some into panic mode. Then proclaims at the news conference, we’re not done yet. Probably drive up the price on verlander too. 

 

Conforto is 6 years younger, has a less troubling injury history than Brantley that he's trying to come back from (he's already healthy and we bought in- thus why we were trying to sign him on 8/31 of this year), Brantley isn't healthy yet (and likely won't be until right around Spring Training- if then), and defensively going forward at his age and athleticism Brantley is likely to be borderline unplayable in LF anywhere other than MMP.  What's your rationale for a very strong preference for him?

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

2 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Because he can fill some other holes in the lineup, particularly at DH that Maldy can’t. The Astros could kick that can down the road into next offseason. 

As long as he's the backup catcher yep.  3 holes with 1 roster spot.  And it's not just patching a hole- it's making all of them a strength not just not a weakness.  

[henrygandorf 29191]

i see everybody took their adderall this morning. 

[wood 11225]

22 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Not pictured/video’d: surly-ite’s kid saying “my name is Inigo Montoya. You took Yuli’s spot. Prepare to die.”

I'm as big of a Yuli fan as there is, but I love the Abreu signing. If they can keep Yuli on in a (rumored) utility role, that would be fantastic. As has been mentioned, imho Yuli's effect on the team goes far beyond his superior 1B fielding ability and what he can produce at the plate. Same with Machete, and Brantley. I see those guys being very successful coaches one day if they so choose.