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2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread


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46 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

So for a couple million more per year he gets to play for Wild Cards instead of World Series with his buddies. Funny how life turns out. But he can work on his commentary skills during the ALCS.

The Twins were 14 games back from Cleveland for the Division lead last season, and that was WITH Correa on the team.  The added Joey Gallo and Christian Vasquez this offseason, so I don't see them doing a whole lot better. 

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9 minutes ago, The Dog said:

He's had 502+ PAs in 3 of his seasons - 2 being the last two years. 

I’m going to laugh when he’s sitting on 499 PAs after September 30, 2028 and a Minneapolis blizzard the morning of Oct 1 wipes out the final twins game of the season that no one cares about because they and their opponent, the Tigers, are a combined 56 games out of a playoff spot.

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On 1/9/2023 at 1:56 AM, Dutchrudder said:

A 6man rotation makes so much sense to help alleviate injuries, but also to have some leeway if one of the starters does get injured. It provides a lot of flexibility at the cost of some utility fielder that bats .200 and rarely sees the field. Leave that 25th guy down in triple A, and get another arm in the rotation/pen.  

But you might need a third catcher so you can pinch run for the starter since the 2nd catcher is the DH.  Or something like that.

Personally, I'm team "Six man rotation" until mid August or so.

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30 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

I’m going to laugh when he’s sitting on 499 PAs after September 30, 2028 and a Minneapolis blizzard the morning of Oct 1 wipes out the final twins game of the season that no one cares about because they and their opponent, the Tigers, are a combined 56 games out of a playoff spot.

More details. There are team options attached so if he doesn't hit the PA number they can still keep him:

 

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So Correa wanted 10/300 at least leaving the Astros, turned down 10/275 from the Tigers, turned down 6/180 from the Astros and ended up signing 7/235 with the twins (counting last years deal). 

He will be 34 years old when he hits FA again. If he's a HOF guy he can expect to still be a valuable player and probably get someone to pay him 5/100M at least I would think.  That would essentially put him at 335 as a FA in career earnings.  Or, he ends up at 235M in FA earnings and washes out of the league.  He's still got a chance to out earn Seager and some of the other guys that got deals this winter, but he will have to earn it by being a HOF level guy. Which would mean he'd be valuable enough to employ until he's 40.  

His best case scenario is Carlos Beltran like career.  Beltran signed an 18M deal with us at 39. If he has that level of production he plays until 40 and earns an extra 150M above and beyond on this contract.  Or, in other words, exactly what the Giants were prepared to give him today sight unseen before he flunked the physical. Now to get that money he has to earn it.  Tough break for him man. Tough break.  As much as you can say that about any guy who earns a minimum of 265M total in his baseball career. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He will be 34 years old when he hits FA again.

That’s best case scenario. His  contract is for 6 years guaranteed but with an additional 4 years with vesting options. Those years are also team options if he doesn’t hit the AB benchmark. So it could be age 38 before he is a free agent. 

 

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2 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

That’s best case scenario. His  contract is for 6 years guaranteed but with an additional 4 years with vesting options. Those years are also team options if he doesn’t hit the AB benchmark. So it could be age 38 before he is a free agent. 

 

Yeah- the medicals must not just be bad but he must absolutely know they are bad for him to give the Twins those vesting options.  Most HOF guys are putting up 2-4 WAR in their age 34, 35, 36 and 37 seasons.  For him to give the Twins options at those cut rates means he doesn't have much in the way of realistic hope he will age gracefully as a ball player.  That's a tough deal for him.  Really really sucks.  

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11 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

And I think Houston probably would have gone to something like 7/235 if he’d agreed to that at the time. 

I think that's undoubtedly right.  He made the right decision when he was going to get 385 or even 350 for his FA years (counting the 35M he got from the Twins in year 1) but it was pretty unknowable that he was going to ding himself in September, be ok, but reveal structural issues.  That's a bad beat way to lose a bet on yourself.  

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5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That's a bad beat way to lose a bet on yourself.  

This free agency dramatically showed both sides of the coin when it comes to betting on yourself. Judge won his bet in a huge way. Correa, while not going to the poorhouse, still cost himself in a big-time

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1 minute ago, TonyTexas said:

This free agency dramatically showed both sides of the coin when it comes to betting on yourself. Judge won his bet in a huge way. Correa, while not going to the poorhouse, still cost himself in a big-time

His best offer last year was 10/275 I think from Detroit (best confirmed anyway).  He ended up with 7/235 with vesting option that shouldn't be difficult to turn into 8/270 or 9/290.  Again, this is all counting the 35M he did make which you have to.  He didn't do too much worse by betting on himself vs signing what was on the table. He did worse for himself trying to steal a base to help win a meaningless game in September.  I hope he kills it up there, makes the HOF and ends up over 400M in career earnings.  But damn, that's going to be a tough hill to climb for him now and he's not betting on that for sure. 

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40 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

He's fully vested in the $400MM career earnings metric.  Even though he first threw out $500MM in the post 2017 World Series offseason thread.

 

maybe im dumb and just a lesbian trapped in a man's body, but i'd be pretty damn good with $300MM and playing for WS year in / year out. whether it be the dodgers, yankees are dodgers 

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4 hours ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

The 6 year contract may make him tradeable at some point. If he continues to play well he could be a July piece for someone, some year, assuming Twins are not in contention. Physicals not withstanding.

How’s the Twin’s farm system? Seems like they always have enough to tread water. 

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4 hours ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

The 6 year contract may make him tradeable at some point. If he continues to play well he could be a July piece for someone, some year, assuming Twins are not in contention. Physicals not withstanding.

Contract has a no trade clause. Of course we’ve seen workarounds for those but it does make a trade more difficult/expensive   

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

He's fully vested in the $400MM career earnings metric.  Even though he first threw out $500MM in the post 2017 World Series offseason thread.

I didn’t realize he gave them team options on the besting the first time around, so I changed my opinion. 
Correa did get deals worth 400M his fucking physical stopped it from happening. His career earnings if he passed his physical with SF would have been 420M. 
With the team options he gave the twins his best possible outcome now would be something like 380M if he completed his entire contract with them and then for 3 elder Beltran type deals at 38, 39 and 40, which is highly improbable. 

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19 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’m happy Carlos finally got paid(? I think) and he’s with a respectable organization.

Not to relive the experience, but Houston sports talk was f***ing miserable for 3 solid months after Correa left. 
 

I’m glad both parties arrived at satisfactory conclusion. 

PS - It's always fucking miserable.

You should listen to VSIN

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I didn’t realize he gave them team options on the besting the first time around, so I changed my opinion. 
Correa did get deals worth 400M his fucking physical stopped it from happening. His career earnings if he passed his physical with SF would have been 420M. 
With the team options he gave the twins his best possible outcome now would be something like 380M if he completed his entire contract with them and then for 3 elder Beltran type deals at 38, 39 and 40, which is highly improbable. 

If I picked the right Powerball numbers I would be a billionaire, but I didn't so I'm not.

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18 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If I picked the right Powerball numbers I would be a billionaire, but I didn't so I'm not.

Failing a formality like a physical, which never gets failed, isn’t exactly some common occurrence or something CC was likely to have been able to foresee. He made the right call and earned his money, and then it was gone. 

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Failing a formality like a physical, which never gets failed, isn’t exactly some common occurrence or something CC was likely to have been able to foresee. He made the right call and earned his money, and then it was gone. 
The Correa saga this off-season has just been weird. I don't recall him ever missing time in the majors because of the ankle.

If anything, this whole situation likely demonstrates the hidden power that INSURANCE COMPANIES have over athlete contracts...I'm betting the major insurance carriers refused to insure Correa's 10+ year deals with SF and NYM because they thought the ankle will deteriorate in the future...I have serious doubts this was caused just by some team doctors raising alarms to ownership during a physical.
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