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2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

tx 3 putt

By tx 3 putt
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tx 3 putt
tx 3 putt

You wanted us. You got us.  You got your asses beat !   Let's do it again in 2023     

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

love these articles and comments from the mlb media about marring a world series or how the baseball world will be critical of the astros for this move. get. the. fuck. out. with. that. nonsense.

MaybeACoordinator
MaybeACoordinator

Going through old pics because of the death of my grandmother / mom and came across this -- 1996, my son's first Astros game.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15242

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Off-season picture getting clearer. My guess is nothing else gets done until Verlander is either 100% on board or out the door.

 

Also, somewhat surprising but add Mitch Haniger to the market. No QO for him. Interesting, though Seattle does have quite a few good OFs.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15242

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Spoiler

Welcome to the offseason! Here's a quick rundown of what you need to know about these 2022-23 MLB free agent rankings and projections, since I think you'll likely scroll immediately to the players and then return back here when you have a question.

For simplicity, players are ranked in the order of their projected guaranteed contracts, not how good I think they are. The contract projections are a mix of my opinions and those of agents and executives, but the aim is to try to predict what will happen -- not what I think they're worth.

Some players with slam-dunk options of various kinds won't be listed here, including Tim Anderson and Chris Sale, even if some of those might not yet be finalized. Edwin Diaz, Charlie Morton and Adam Wainwright are the notables who would've been on this list but already signed.

The qualifying offer is back, meaning teams can offer a one-year, $19.65 million deal. If the free agent turns it down and signs with another club, the team losing the player will get draft-pick compensation (the system is too complicated for me to fully explain here). Players must be offered a QO by Thursday, and then they have 10 days to either accept or decline. Players who were traded in 2022, have been offered the QO before or aren't on an MLB roster can't be offered it. Not having that offer tied to them means they'll have a more robust market because that compensation is worth millions to certain clubs. It's almost a certainty that the eligible players in the top 15 of this list will get a QO, so there are only eight cases in which whether the player will be offered one is a real question: Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Anderson, Anthony Rizzo, Ross Stripling and Zach Eflin.

Last winter, teams set a record for free agent spending at $3.625 billion, breaking the previous mark of $2.4 billion. I had last year's group projected at under $3 billion but missed low on some of the top players. I've adjusted a bit this year and now have this year's group projected at roughly $3.2 billion, so this year does have a chance to break that record and should be in the top two all time either way.

Lastly, I missed on the low side for some of the top players in last winter's class, and I think some of the same market forces are present this year: leaguewide revenues (still strong!), owners/organizations looking to be aggressive with that revenue to upgrade their clubs (still a lot!), and the cost of trading young players to get multiple years of control of good, younger big leaguers (still high!). So, I've rounded up a bit on the projections for top players in cases where I'm less sure about where their market lands.

Now here are my top 50 free agents available this winter, with my projected contract for each player.

1. Aaron Judge, RF
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 9 years, $324 million ($36M average annual value)

I wrote about Judge's potential contract in late May, then again in September. Here's the short version: He turned down a $213.5 million extension before the season started and was probably worth somewhere between that and $250 million at the time, then it became clear during the year that he was likely to clear $300 million, with estimates averaging roughly $320 million from a panel of experts I polled in September.

A constant throughout his historic season -- perhaps the best single-season performance since peak Barry Bonds -- is that the New York Yankees need him more than any other team going forward for his talent but also his PR and marketing value to the team. The Bombers' revenues are so massive that they could easily run a much bigger payroll, so it would seem like this is an outlier case in which they would need to pay a retail rate to keep a star player.

That said, general manager Brian Cashman and ownership have been hesitant to do that for even an elite player who will be past his prime for a substantial part of the contract. That leads us to the real questions here: Which of these Yankees impulses wins out and how hard will rival teams push? If there are multiple teams with Judge alone at the top of their offseason priorities, then this probably goes to $350 million or more. If teams are hesitant to pay a massive corner masher in his 30s over $300 million, he could get the Manny Machado treatment of a late-winter offer that's acceptable but no true bidding war.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, with the New York Mets, the San Francisco Giants -- with a sagging talent base and lots of money to spend -- and the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have nine figures coming off the books, figuring to be the main characters pushing the Yankees to go north of $300 million.

2. Trea Turner, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 29

Projected contract: 8 years, $272 million ($34M AAV)

Turner has long been in the mix at the top of this free agent class but has never really been considered the top guy, as Judge stole that mantle at some point this year and Jacob deGrom was the huge name before this season began. It seems like Carlos Correa's hot second half now also has him within striking distance of Turner for the second-biggest contract in the class, and while there are some differences of opinion in the industry, I still think Turner will come in second.

The path Turner has taken to being an elite big leaguer is intriguing. He was known only to a handful of teams as a prep prospect, but then he torched the ACC for two years, looking like a potential No. 1 overall pick. An up-and-down 12 months leading into draft day (mostly due to him tweaking his swing and playing through injuries) pushed him to pick No. 13. After all that, he was traded before he reached the big leagues. In the big leagues, he did what we've also seen Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve and Francisco Lindor do, going from a player many scouts thought would hit 10, maybe 15, homers in a career year to posting 19, 19, 12 (in the pandemic-shortened season), 28 and 21 homers in his past five seasons.

He's still an elite runner and he's an average or above-average defender anywhere on the field. Turner has won a World Series and played in 43 postseason games. He seems to be peaking later in his career, getting to the biggest stages a bit later than Correa, Machado and Bryce Harper (who were phenoms as teenagers). Turner also has more career WAR at the time of hitting free agency than any of those three.

All of this adds up to there being a case that Turner is better than Corey Seager was at this time last year (Seager got $325 million from Texas) and is in a class with Lindor (he got $341 million), while Machado got $300 million and Harper got $330 million. Along the same lines as the thinking with Judge, if Turner is the subject of a multiteam bidding war, I wouldn't be surprised to see his deal clear $300 million.

If teams do an aging curve based on Turner being a year or two older than most of those above comps were -- since he went to college while they signed out of high school -- they'll trim a year or two off of their offers and it'll end up around where I have it projected. In a bear scenario, Correa's size, age and edge with the bat get him the second-biggest deal this winter, and there aren't enough enthusiastic teams chasing Turner to get to this level. I buy the bull case more than the bear case but am still in the middle.

3. Carlos Correa, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 28

Projected contract: 8 years, $265 million ($33.1M AAV)

Last year, I pegged Correa for nine years, $297 million, and he settled for a three-year, $105.3 million deal with the Minnesota Twins when his megadeal prospects dried up. He exercised his opt-out, so he'll have another shot to get that huge deal. The belief in the industry is that Correa is focused on making good on the $300 million-plus projections some had last winter, particularly if he can pair his $35.1 million salary in 2022 with this upcoming deal to form a composite contract that matches what he wanted.

My projection has him doing just that, almost exactly matching my projection from last winter. I think he lands in the mid-to-high $200 million area, as there are still some lingering questions about his long-term durability and long-term positional home, while he's also now a year older. He's been healthy and performed well the past two seasons -- and he finished strong in the second half this year. He also won't have draft-pick compensation tied to him as most of the top free agents will, since he was offered the QO last winter.

I think he could sign later in the process to ensure he gets some precedent-setting figures in his deal, whether that's years, total, average annual value, biggest potential max value or best-among-shortstops. The bull case for Correa is he's at the top of multiple teams' priority lists -- as they want a balance of power, position and youth -- and he bests $300 million with this new contract alone.

Also of note is Correa's agent, Scott Boras. Last year, Boras had a lot of control over the winter due to representing Correa, Seager, Rodon, Marcus Semien, Kris Bryant, Max Scherzer and Nick Castellanos. He's once again sitting in the catbird seat this winter, with Correa and Carlos Rodon hitting the market again because of opt-outs negotiated last winter, in addition to Xander Bogaerts (another opt-out), Brandon Nimmo and Taijuan Walker, all ranking in the top dozen on this list.

4. Xander Bogaerts, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 6 years, $168 million ($28M AAV)

Bogaerts has drawn the widest opinions of any player on this list from executives I spoke with. The bull case is he's basically been 30% better than a league-average hitter for five straight seasons and he can play anywhere in the infield if needed. On the other hand, his power numbers have been trending down the past four years and he'll need to move off of shortstop soon if not immediately, so you're getting a good hitter and maybe not a whole lot else.

He's also been consistently beating his expected offensive stats (xwOBA) -- he beat it by 40 points this year, the seventh-biggest gap -- or amount of "luck" -- in baseball this year. If his offense normalizes next year, it could get ugly, but that said, I tend to think he's doing something that xwOBA can't capture. One American League front office told me years ago that it stopped shifting against Bogaerts because he'd just start hitting the ball wherever the hole was, unlike any player it had encountered in the shifting era.

I could see him getting seven years in a good outcome, and that could get past $200 million, with Semien's deal last winter (seven years, $175 million) as a marker due to the similarities as a maybe-shortstop with uneven power history and Boras as an agent. Given how the Betts trade went and how current Rafael Devers extension talks are going on the heels of a disappointing season, I think the Boston Red Sox are motivated to keep Bogaerts -- so he could sign sooner than other top free agents.

5. Dansby Swanson, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 29

Projected contract: 6 years, $150 million ($25M AAV)

Swanson has really improved since the start of his career when some wondered if the 2015 No. 1 overall pick would be a bust. He's posted back-to-back 25-homer seasons along with playing elite defense at shortstop -- and he doesn't turn 29 until February. A couple of executives I spoke with said he tops Bogaerts easily, with a chance that Swanson will clear Semien's deal and get into the $180 million area. When you combine a six-WAR platform year with his power and defensive value, he offers a unique package on the market this year.

On the other hand, there is a concern that he could be a hitter peaking at the typical ages (26-28 exactly) who will get a big deal and immediately start declining offensively. On top of that, speed and defense tend to decline earlier than hitting skills, and those areas makes up a bigger part of Swanson's appeal than for other players on this tier. I'll split the difference in my projection, but the gap between the low and high prediction on Swanson is something like $30-40 million, while Bogaerts' is about double that.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34

Projected contract: 3 years, $132 million ($44M AAV)

The early chatter has been that bringing back Diaz and Nimmo were the priorities for the Mets while deGrom was more of a nice-to-have. On Sunday, the Mets paid Diaz $102 million over five years, basically paying a small premium from what was expected (I had $100 million over five years, as did others I spoke with) to keep him from testing the market.

That lends a little more credence to that aforementioned line of thinking. The real question here is if owner Steve Cohen has deGrom's name in the "don't lose under any circumstances" category or not. Last winter's deal for Scherzer (three years, $130 million) seems like a likely starting point to negotiations, but I don't think anyone will give deGrom that same AAV on a four-year deal given his durability issues.

What I'm projecting here is that he nominally tops Scherzer, sets a new AAV record, then gets a vesting option for the fourth year at a healthy rate (let's say $40 million) if he throws 130 innings or so in the third year of the deal. I'd guess that option comes with no buyout, but deGrom gets the same opt-out after the second year that Scherzer got in his deal. If deGrom wants to maximize guaranteed money, I think he could get four years for about $150-160 million.

7. Carlos Rodon, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 5 years, $130 million ($26M AAV)

The sneaky thing to keep an eye on in this year's crop is if Rodon gets a much bigger deal than expected. I had him pegged for a Kevin Gausman-esque (five years, $110 million) deal months ago, as both pitchers were high picks out of college who took awhile to reach expectations but became frontline types.

Gausman has always been a righty with a fringy breaking ball, which is a big concern for a high-dollar pitcher for many teams, while Rodon is a power lefty with a great breaking ball. Rodon's concerns were durability and consistency, but he's thrown over 300 innings the past two years with lights-out numbers that top Gausman's, after they both took their trip though the Giants' pitching optimization experience.

So, now the question for me is, by how much does Rodon beat Gausman's deal? A couple of executives guessed five years for $150 million, and if Rodon tops deGrom, I think that would shock some fans. I still have Rodon a hair behind deGrom, but don't be shocked if the lefty is the pitcher in this class who draws a bidding war.

8. Brandon Nimmo, CF

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 5 years, $118 million ($23.5M AAV)

Another free agent slowly climbing my projections over the past few months was Nimmo. He's the only everyday center fielder in this class, but he's also hit at least 34% better than league average at the plate for three straight years. He's basically above average at everything you can measure on the field. Similar to Turner, he's peaking a little later athletically, and while Nimmo was a first-round pick out of high school, he's from Wyoming and had the fewest reps of any high pick in recent memory, so the narrative makes some sense.

With market forces and Cohen being motivated to help Nimmo, I think he'll get a five-year deal for a nine-figure total, but I can't rule out a six-year deal when putting him next to some examples from last year's free agent class such as Trevor Story (six-year deal), Javier Baez (six), and Bryant (seven).

9. Justin Verlander, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 40

Projected contract: 2 years, $72 million ($36M AAV)

Verlander is likely to opt out of the final year ($25 million) of the two-year deal he signed last winter. He'll turn 40 years old before Opening Day and just had one of his best seasons, but he obviously has to be near the end. He shouldn't have a problem getting a two-year deal and getting more than $30 million per season, but I don't think he'll be threatening the Scherzer AAV record ($43.3 million).

10. Kodai Senga, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 5 years, $72 million ($14.4M AAV)

Senga is one of the best pitchers in Japan. He showcases a plus fastball often in the upper 90s and a plus splitter in a power pitcher mold. His breaking stuff is just OK, so he isn't a shoo-in frontline starter and might fit better in shorter stints or as a starter with a quick hook, but most clubs see him as somewhere from a second-to-fourth starter.

Given his age, command and breaking ball concerns, it's reasonable to expect a No. 3 starter but with more risk/reward/variance than other 30-year-old starters -- like the next pitcher on this list. Senga opted out of his contract in Japan and is a free agent, so he's not subject to posting rules. This means a $10-15 million fee that would've gone to his Nippon Professional Baseball club will just be included in his contract.

11. Taijuan Walker, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 4 years, $60 million ($15M AAV)

Walker was a former touted prospect who has tinkered with different pitches and mixes to find a balance that works for him. He still throws six distinct pitches, with his splitter the best of them. He's a durable starter and throws strikes but doesn't have one part of his game that blows you away. I'll be intrigued to see how the market values Walker and teammate Chris Bassitt relative to the unproven-in-MLB Senga and close-to-the-end Verlander. All four fit in the $50-75 million range but with pretty different ways of getting there.

12. Chris Bassitt, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34

Projected contract: 3 years, $53 million ($18M AAV)

Bassitt declined his $19 million mutual option and will likely get that sort of AAV on a multiyear deal. He has average fastball velocity and a low-70s slow curve that isn't exactly on trend, but he's a durable bulldog type who has figured out how to make it work. I think a two-year deal makes sense given his age and velocity, but every team is in need of this sort of arm, so I'd imagine a third year will be necessary to close the deal.

13. Jose Abreu, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 36

Projected contract: 2 years, $46 million ($23M AAV)

Abreu is a righty-hitting first baseman who turns 36 in January, so you'd think a number of teams would be out on a multiyear deal based on that alone, but Abreu is unique in notable ways. He's defying the typical aging curve, having one of his best seasons at age 35, and has been widely lauded for having perhaps the best makeup in baseball. He can't be given a qualifying offer, so there will be interest in a high-AAV, short-term deal with no draft-pick compensation for a universal DH candidate, despite his declining power numbers for two seasons.

14. Willson Contreras, C
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 3 years, $45 million ($15M AAV)

Contreras seems like a really good player on paper -- he has hit above league average while playing the hardest position on the field for seven straight seasons. He has big power and a big arm behind the plate, but he has mixed reviews on various other facets of his defense that could bring down his value a bit. Contreras might be a 1B/DH fit once he moves off of catcher for good at some point. I don't think there's a four-year offer out there for Contreras, but valuing catcher defense and projecting a player-specific aging curve is still an inexact science in which teams' opinions vary pretty widely, so I can't rule it out.

15. Andrew Benintendi, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 28

Projected contract: 3 years, $42 million ($14M AAV)

Benintendi is one of the youngest free agents in the class, which is notable since he was drafted out of college and reached the big leagues a year later. He had a huge 4.9 WAR season in 2018 but has been largely just OK otherwise, though 2022 was his second-best season. He hit 22% above league average and played an average left field. He's a low-end regular with what seems like some untapped upside, though he also might just be a 2-something WAR player the next two years, which would be a nice return for the signing club if he keeps that up.

16. Zach Eflin, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 28

Projected contract: 3 years, $39 million ($13M AAV)

Eflin is nominally at the front of a group of starters ranked in the next half-dozen spots who could end up in any order in guaranteed money once the dust settles. There is a surprising enthusiasm for Eflin among those I talked to in the industry. He is seen as a potentially untapped young starter who hasn't quite put together that bulk-innings season of No. 3/No. 4 starter quality, but has the tools to do so -- particularly if he goes to the group of teams best at pitcher optimization (Rodon, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Cobb and Andrew Heaney were examples last winter). I think roughly $40 million will be the top price this tier of pitchers gets, and there's probably a couple of them who get to that price, with guaranteed money in the high $20 millions as the lower end.

17. Ross Stripling, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 3 years, $36 million ($12M AAV)

Stripling is another intriguing starter in this third tier. He broke out this season with improved command of his 2021 repertoire and a career high of 134⅓ innings. He doesn't have the gaudy velocity, strikeout or ground ball numbers teams might prefer, but in this range, you primarily are looking for reliable regular-season innings more than a primary playoff starter.

18. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 2 years, $34 million ($17M AAV)

Rizzo got two years, $32 million last winter but had a nice bounce-back year at the plate, so he'll hit the market again for a fresh multiyear deal with similar terms. However, a potential qualifying offer could put a wrench in those plans.

19. Tyler Anderson, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 2 years, $33 million ($16.5M AAV)

Anderson is another pitcher in this muddled second tier who probably will get paid a bit less than his 2022 performance indicates because he doesn't throw hard, strike many batters out or get that many ground balls -- and he turns 33 this winter. That said, he threw 167 and 178⅔ innings the past two seasons, respectively, and seems like he'll have a better-than-league-average ERA the next few seasons, even if his 2.57 ERA in 2022 might overstate his ability.

20. Brandon Drury, 3B
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 3 years, $33 million ($11M AAV)

Drury has been a pretty decent-to-meh player going back to 2015 but then was surprisingly excellent in 2022 for his age-29 season, timed well to make the most of it in free agency. Underlying numbers suggest Drury was pretty lucky with outcomes this year, and I think teams are looking at him as a very good utility guy who starts most days and is insurance for a number of players on a winning team rather than a lock starter penciled in the same spot every day. Something like $8-11 million per year for two or three years would make sense here.

21. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million ($15M AAV)

On the other hand in reference to Anderson, Eovaldi has been getting more support than I expected for a soon-to-be-33-year-old with two Tommy John surgeries in his past, just 20 starts this season, and fourth starter-ish peripherals this year. He still sits 95-97 mph with a power arsenal and has had under two walks per nine innings for three straight years, so there's a number of roles he could be useful in. He's also unlikely to be kicked off the staff for a playoff run like some soft-tossers often are.

22. Jameson Taillon, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million ($15M AAV)

Like Eovaldi, Taillon also throws hard, has a good breaking ball, has shrunk his walks below two per nine innings, and has undergone two Tommy John surgeries. One of the starters in this 16th-to-22nd group will be the optimization project du jour, and they all have some qualities that I think progressive clubs will like.

23. Michael Brantley, LF
2022 Opening Day age: 35

Projected contract: 2 years, $28 million ($14M AAV)

Brantley played only 64 games this year for the Houston Astros because of a shoulder injury, but he looked like his normal self with more walks than strikeouts and solid-enough power. I thought given his age and injury he'd have to settle for a one-year deal, but sources tell me there should be enough interest for a multiyear deal, in keeping with the "proven hitter premium" I'm being told to price in.

24. Jose Quintana, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34

Projected contract: 2 years, $28 million ($14M AAV)

Quintana had a bad 2021 and didn't come close to making last year's top 50, settling for a $2 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals as a rental on the strength of a bounce-back year and now once again looks like a solid finesse lefty No. 4 starter.

25. Martin Perez, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)

Like Matt Moore below, Perez is another pitcher with whom sources didn't totally buy into the 2022 performance, in part because of the up-and-down nature of Perez's career until this past season. I think the market sees him as a fourth starter, but there's some margin for error since the combination of velocity, strikeouts, ground balls and bulk innings added up to the 18th-best starter in baseball by WAR in 2022.

26. Rafael Montero, RHP

Elsa/Getty Images
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)

Montero has long been a heavy fastball usage reliever, usually 60-70%, and he succeeded because of how he commanded the pitch. Now his velocity and ground ball rate are up a few ticks since those Mets seasons, and he's a steady setup option.

27. Jurickson Profar, LF
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 2 years, $24 million ($12M AAV)

Profar had a player option for $8.33 million that he declined on Monday, and he now figures to get a multiyear deal at a better rate after bouncing back at the plate from a down year in 2021. He's regressed since his prospect days, not offering much on the basepaths or defensively, and he's got just average power, but he can hit.

28. Joc Pederson, LF
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 2 years, $24 million ($12M AAV)

Pederson looked like he'd regressed into a platoon player after down 2020 and 2021 seasons at ages 28 and 29, but then he had a resurgent 2022 with a career-best season at the plate. He's below average defensively in the outfield, but he's hitting again and he's not scared of the big moment.

29. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 35

Projected contract: 1 year, $20 million

Kershaw is worth more than this contract, but he seems happy signing for roughly the qualifying offer on a one-year deal annually. The Dodgers don't want to rush his decision, so they probably won't give him a QO this year either.

30. Andrew Heaney, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M AAV)

Heaney was a trendy buy-low pitcher last winter, of the sort that the Dodgers and Giants often take fliers on, eventually getting $8.5 million from the Dodgers. He made only 14 starts this year, but his velocity was up a tick and his peripherals improved, meaning now he's a little more in demand and likely gets a two-year deal as a club hopes it can get some bulk innings at this new level of performance.

31. Josh Bell, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M AAV)

Bell just turned 30 and is a solid on-base and power threat, but not enough to be more than a low-end starter because he brings very little in terms of speed or defensive value.

32. Michael Conforto, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 1 year, $19 million

Conforto had a bit of a down 2021 season, leading to a tough-to-read market last winter (I projected three years, $51 million). Before he could sign, he was knocked out for the year by a shoulder injury, so he remained a free agent. Now he seems likely to just get a one-year deal for $15-20 million, so he'll have to prove himself once again and get the big payday next winter. He doesn't turn 30 until March 1, so there's some upside left.

33. Jean Segura, 2B
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 2 years, $19 million ($9.5M AAV)

The Philadelphia Phillies had a $17 million club option with a $1 million buyout on Segura that they declined. He's been an above-average big league hitter for six of the past seven seasons, and he's also an above-average defensive second baseman, but teams are just trying to make sure they don't get his decline into reserve status included in this deal.

34. Matt Moore, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million ($9M AAV)

Moore has bounced around after he was originally ranked right next to Harper and Mike Trout on prospect lists in 2010 (yes, you read that right). He was a No. 3/No. 4 starter a couple of seasons in his 20s but tailed off later on before having a breakout year in 2022, with a 1.95 ERA in 74 innings of relief and a couple of ERA estimators under 3.00. He sits 93-95 mph and has a power curveball, but teams I spoke with think his 2022 season overstates his ability and he isn't that far ahead of Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers and Matt Strahm in the lefty setup market.

35. Robert Suarez, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $17 million ($8.5M AAV)

Suarez was playing in Mexico in 2015, then in Japan from 2016 to 2021. He bet on himself last winter, getting an opt-out in a two-year deal, so he'll forgo a $5 million salary for 2023 and get a fresh multiyear deal this winter. There's a bit of a stigma on right-handed starters with fringy breaking balls, but some teams do like relievers such as Suarez who are fastball/changeup-heavy (86% use of those two pitches), since they can get lefties out and turning over a lineup isn't an issue.

36. Nick Martinez, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $16 million ($8M AAV)

Like Suarez, the San Diego Padres signed Martinez after he played multiple years in Japan, with multiple player option/opt-outs in his deal in case he overperformed it. He had a solid year of above-average pitching, throwing 106⅓ innings as both a starter and reliever. It's about a coin-flip decision (rival teams think he's more likely to opt out) since his current deal -- three years, $19.5 million, opt-outs each year -- and the $1.5 million buyout if he opts outs plus his new deal would be pretty similar.

Since not all of the opt-outs or contractual options were decided at press time, I've been overly inclusive of anyone who might become a free agent with, let's say, a 25% or more chance of hitting the market. I've noted where those decisions are close calls, with players like Martinez and Justin Turner among those who could easily never hit the market.

37. Sean Manaea, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 1 year, $15 million

Manaea has an outside shot to get a qualifying offer ($19.65 million) and have draft compensation attached, but I think he'll come in just below that as an innings-eating lefty who works in the low 90s. He's young enough that I could see a team thinking there's something they can unlock here and gambling with a multiyear deal.

38. Chris Martin, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 36

Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5M AAV)

He made his big league debut at age 28, spent his age-30 and age-31 seasons in Japan, then returned to the big leagues at age 32 in 2018 and has been excellent ever since. He had a career year in 2022 for the Chicago Cubs and Dodgers, and he seems like a solid bet to keep doing it.

39. Andrew Chafin, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5M AAV)

Chafin plans to decline his $6.5 million player option, and I think he'll best that number in AAV and then tack on an extra year. His velocity has slipped a bit the past few years, but his control and ground ball rate have more than made up for it.

40. Kenley Jansen, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 35

Projected contract: 1 year, $14 million

Jansen can sometimes give heart attacks to fans of his team because it's a bit risky to throw a low-90s cutter 64% of the time if you aren't Mariano Rivera. Somehow, his underlying stats have been nearly identical for five straight years, and he has the late-inning and playoff success that's a key intangible for free agent relievers. The Atlanta Braves gave him $16 million last winter, and he's still the same guy, just a year older.

41. Taylor Rogers, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million ($7M AAV)

Rogers is a low-slot lefty reliever (not to be confused with his brother Tyler, a submarine righty reliever) who had a down year but is still regarded as a solid lefty setup man.

42. Christian Vazquez, C
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million ($7M AAV)

Vazquez is a steady defensive presence with some contact skills and is a clear starter, but he doesn't have a ton of impact.

This is around where non-tenders who would become free agents in a couple of weeks could make this list. The crop of potential players who might reasonably be added to this free agent market include (in order of projected guaranteed money): Cody Bellinger, Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela and Brad Keller.

43. Noah Syndergaard, RHP

2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 1 year, $13.5 million

"Thor" signed for $21 million on a one-year deal last winter after making just two starts off of Tommy John surgery. He wasn't as good as many hoped this year, sitting 93-96 mph instead of 96-100 mph before surgery. He looks like a backend starter.

44. Matt Carpenter, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 37

Projected contract: 1 year, $13 million

The Yankees sprinkled their pixie dust on Carpenter and he put up otherworldly numbers for 47 games in 2022, but then he missed the rest of the year with a foot injury before coming back to earth.

45. Corey Kluber, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 36

Projected contract: 1 year, $13 million

He's still the guy you remember, throwing his cutter and curveball 62% of the time, but his fastball now sits 88-90 mph. He's more a solid-average innings-eater than the ace he was in his prime.

46. Gary Sanchez, C
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5M AAV)

You probably know Sanchez's weaknesses (defensive inconsistency, contact rate), but he's still got huge power and a big arm -- and is clearly one of the 30 best catchers in the world.

47. Chad Green, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5M AAV)

Green had Tommy John surgery in June, so he'll sign a two-year deal to maybe pitch next season, then be back to his normal setup-level self in 2023.

48. Matt Strahm, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5M AAV)

Strahm's velocity jumped a tick this year after he missed almost all of 2021 because of knee surgery. He's a solid lefty setup type who throws mostly heaters and breakers.

49. Michael Lorenzen, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 1 year, $12 million

Lorenzen is a superlative two-way performer who showed flashes for the Los Angeles Angels this season, starting full time for the first time since his rookie season. He's probably not a 180-inning starter, but he has six distinctive pitches and plenty of upside for a good pitching development organization.

50. Justin Turner, 3B
2022 Opening Day age: 38

Projected contract: 1 year, $11 million

Turner has a $16 million club option with a $2 million buyout, so I think the Dodgers will decline it and bring him back at a lower rate, but it's a close call. If the Dodgers pick up this option, you can slide buy-low toolshed Joey Gallo or steady DH J.D. Martinez on the end of this list.

Here's a rundown of the rest of the current or potentially could-soon-be free agents. They're ranked within their positional tiers, and I've noted where there are contractual options that haven't been resolved yet, though those should all be resolved by Thursday. "C" denotes a club option (the club makes the decision), "P" is player option and is also referred to as an opt-out, and "M" is mutual option.

Catchers (15): Omar Narvaez, Mike Zunino, Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges, Curt Casali, Tucker Barnhart, Jason Castro, Pedro Severino, Kevin Plawecki, Andrew Knapp, Sandy Leon, Austin Romine, Stephen Vogt, Robinson Chirinos, Kurt Suzuki

Infielders/designated hitters (37): J.D. Martinez, Adam Frazier, Evan Longoria (C), Elvis Andrus, Trey Mancini, Carlos Santana, Aledmys Diaz, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, Miguel Sano, Jace Peterson, Jose Iglesias, Donovan Solano, Josh Harrison, Nelson Cruz, Chad Pinder, Marwin Gonzalez, Rougned Odor, Jesus Aguilar (M), Didi Gregorius, Matt Duffy, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Hanser Alberto, Andrelton Simmons, Charlie Culberson, Jake Lamb, Maikel Franco, Jonathan Villar, Ehire Adrianza, Nike Goodrum, Colin Moran, Chris Owings, Tim Beckham, Robinson Cano, Cesar Hernandez, Dee Strange-Gordon

Outfielders (24): Joey Gallo, Mitch Haniger, Kevin Kiermaier (C), David Peralta, Adam Duvall, AJ Pollock, Charlie Blackmon (P), Wil Myers, Tommy Pham, Andrew McCutchen, Tyler Naquin, Corey Dickerson, Robbie Grossman, Nomar Mazara, Kole Calhoun, Ben Gamel, Stephen Piscotty, Alex Dickerson, Jake Marisnick, Travis Jankowski, Jackie Bradley Jr., Billy Hamilton, Kevin Pillar, Justin Upton, Brett Phillips, Odubel Herrera

Right-handed pitchers (61): Johnny Cueto, Kyle Gibson, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Wacha, Jake Odorizzi (P), Jordan Lyles (C), Zack Greinke, Michael Fulmer, Zach Davies (M), Adam Ottavino, Drew Rucinski (KBO), David Robertson, Dylan Bundy, Shintaro Fujinami (NPB), Mike Clevinger, Pierce Johnson, Corey Knebel, Seth Lugo, Mychal Givens (M), Brad Boxberger, Jose Urena, David Phelps, Trevor Williams, Chris Archer, Trevor May, Craig Stammen, Luke Jackson, Carlos Estevez, Tommy Kahnle, Miguel Castro, Chad Kuhl, Erasmo Ramirez, Vince Velasquez, Aaron Sanchez, Archie Bradley, Anibal Sanchez, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Pineda, Steve Cishek, Tommy Hunter, Matt Wisler, Darren O'Day, Dominic Leone, Jeurys Familia, Joe Ross, Noe Ramirez, Kohei Arihara, Jay Jackson, Joe Smith, Sergio Romo, Jharel Cotton, Will Harris, Hansel Robles, Alex Colome, Tyler Clippard, Ian Kennedy, Bryan Shaw, Wily Peralta, Jesse Chavez, Hunter Strickland, Chase Anderson

Left-handed pitchers (20): Mike Minor, Wade Miley, Will Smith (C), Drew Smyly (M), Aroldis Chapman, Rich Hill, James Paxton (P), Brad Hand, Matt Boyd, Joely Rodriguez, Justin Wilson (C), Danny Duffy (C), Zack Britton, David Price, Ross Detwiler, Danny Coulombe, Daniel Norris, Jose Alvarez, Jake McGee, Dallas Keuchel

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10728

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Welcome to the offseason! Here's a quick rundown of what you need to know about these 2022-23 MLB free agent rankings and projections, since I think you'll likely scroll immediately to the players and then return back here when you have a question.

For simplicity, players are ranked in the order of their projected guaranteed contracts, not how good I think they are. The contract projections are a mix of my opinions and those of agents and executives, but the aim is to try to predict what will happen -- not what I think they're worth.

Some players with slam-dunk options of various kinds won't be listed here, including Tim Anderson and Chris Sale, even if some of those might not yet be finalized. Edwin Diaz, Charlie Morton and Adam Wainwright are the notables who would've been on this list but already signed.

The qualifying offer is back, meaning teams can offer a one-year, $19.65 million deal. If the free agent turns it down and signs with another club, the team losing the player will get draft-pick compensation (the system is too complicated for me to fully explain here). Players must be offered a QO by Thursday, and then they have 10 days to either accept or decline. Players who were traded in 2022, have been offered the QO before or aren't on an MLB roster can't be offered it. Not having that offer tied to them means they'll have a more robust market because that compensation is worth millions to certain clubs. It's almost a certainty that the eligible players in the top 15 of this list will get a QO, so there are only eight cases in which whether the player will be offered one is a real question: Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Anderson, Anthony Rizzo, Ross Stripling and Zach Eflin.

Last winter, teams set a record for free agent spending at $3.625 billion, breaking the previous mark of $2.4 billion. I had last year's group projected at under $3 billion but missed low on some of the top players. I've adjusted a bit this year and now have this year's group projected at roughly $3.2 billion, so this year does have a chance to break that record and should be in the top two all time either way.

Lastly, I missed on the low side for some of the top players in last winter's class, and I think some of the same market forces are present this year: leaguewide revenues (still strong!), owners/organizations looking to be aggressive with that revenue to upgrade their clubs (still a lot!), and the cost of trading young players to get multiple years of control of good, younger big leaguers (still high!). So, I've rounded up a bit on the projections for top players in cases where I'm less sure about where their market lands.

Now here are my top 50 free agents available this winter, with my projected contract for each player.

1. Aaron Judge, RF
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 9 years, $324 million ($36M average annual value)

I wrote about Judge's potential contract in late May, then again in September. Here's the short version: He turned down a $213.5 million extension before the season started and was probably worth somewhere between that and $250 million at the time, then it became clear during the year that he was likely to clear $300 million, with estimates averaging roughly $320 million from a panel of experts I polled in September.

A constant throughout his historic season -- perhaps the best single-season performance since peak Barry Bonds -- is that the New York Yankees need him more than any other team going forward for his talent but also his PR and marketing value to the team. The Bombers' revenues are so massive that they could easily run a much bigger payroll, so it would seem like this is an outlier case in which they would need to pay a retail rate to keep a star player.

That said, general manager Brian Cashman and ownership have been hesitant to do that for even an elite player who will be past his prime for a substantial part of the contract. That leads us to the real questions here: Which of these Yankees impulses wins out and how hard will rival teams push? If there are multiple teams with Judge alone at the top of their offseason priorities, then this probably goes to $350 million or more. If teams are hesitant to pay a massive corner masher in his 30s over $300 million, he could get the Manny Machado treatment of a late-winter offer that's acceptable but no true bidding war.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, with the New York Mets, the San Francisco Giants -- with a sagging talent base and lots of money to spend -- and the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have nine figures coming off the books, figuring to be the main characters pushing the Yankees to go north of $300 million.

2. Trea Turner, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 29

Projected contract: 8 years, $272 million ($34M AAV)

Turner has long been in the mix at the top of this free agent class but has never really been considered the top guy, as Judge stole that mantle at some point this year and Jacob deGrom was the huge name before this season began. It seems like Carlos Correa's hot second half now also has him within striking distance of Turner for the second-biggest contract in the class, and while there are some differences of opinion in the industry, I still think Turner will come in second.

The path Turner has taken to being an elite big leaguer is intriguing. He was known only to a handful of teams as a prep prospect, but then he torched the ACC for two years, looking like a potential No. 1 overall pick. An up-and-down 12 months leading into draft day (mostly due to him tweaking his swing and playing through injuries) pushed him to pick No. 13. After all that, he was traded before he reached the big leagues. In the big leagues, he did what we've also seen Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve and Francisco Lindor do, going from a player many scouts thought would hit 10, maybe 15, homers in a career year to posting 19, 19, 12 (in the pandemic-shortened season), 28 and 21 homers in his past five seasons.

He's still an elite runner and he's an average or above-average defender anywhere on the field. Turner has won a World Series and played in 43 postseason games. He seems to be peaking later in his career, getting to the biggest stages a bit later than Correa, Machado and Bryce Harper (who were phenoms as teenagers). Turner also has more career WAR at the time of hitting free agency than any of those three.

All of this adds up to there being a case that Turner is better than Corey Seager was at this time last year (Seager got $325 million from Texas) and is in a class with Lindor (he got $341 million), while Machado got $300 million and Harper got $330 million. Along the same lines as the thinking with Judge, if Turner is the subject of a multiteam bidding war, I wouldn't be surprised to see his deal clear $300 million.

If teams do an aging curve based on Turner being a year or two older than most of those above comps were -- since he went to college while they signed out of high school -- they'll trim a year or two off of their offers and it'll end up around where I have it projected. In a bear scenario, Correa's size, age and edge with the bat get him the second-biggest deal this winter, and there aren't enough enthusiastic teams chasing Turner to get to this level. I buy the bull case more than the bear case but am still in the middle.

3. Carlos Correa, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 28

Projected contract: 8 years, $265 million ($33.1M AAV)

Last year, I pegged Correa for nine years, $297 million, and he settled for a three-year, $105.3 million deal with the Minnesota Twins when his megadeal prospects dried up. He exercised his opt-out, so he'll have another shot to get that huge deal. The belief in the industry is that Correa is focused on making good on the $300 million-plus projections some had last winter, particularly if he can pair his $35.1 million salary in 2022 with this upcoming deal to form a composite contract that matches what he wanted.

My projection has him doing just that, almost exactly matching my projection from last winter. I think he lands in the mid-to-high $200 million area, as there are still some lingering questions about his long-term durability and long-term positional home, while he's also now a year older. He's been healthy and performed well the past two seasons -- and he finished strong in the second half this year. He also won't have draft-pick compensation tied to him as most of the top free agents will, since he was offered the QO last winter.

I think he could sign later in the process to ensure he gets some precedent-setting figures in his deal, whether that's years, total, average annual value, biggest potential max value or best-among-shortstops. The bull case for Correa is he's at the top of multiple teams' priority lists -- as they want a balance of power, position and youth -- and he bests $300 million with this new contract alone.

Also of note is Correa's agent, Scott Boras. Last year, Boras had a lot of control over the winter due to representing Correa, Seager, Rodon, Marcus Semien, Kris Bryant, Max Scherzer and Nick Castellanos. He's once again sitting in the catbird seat this winter, with Correa and Carlos Rodon hitting the market again because of opt-outs negotiated last winter, in addition to Xander Bogaerts (another opt-out), Brandon Nimmo and Taijuan Walker, all ranking in the top dozen on this list.

4. Xander Bogaerts, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 6 years, $168 million ($28M AAV)

Bogaerts has drawn the widest opinions of any player on this list from executives I spoke with. The bull case is he's basically been 30% better than a league-average hitter for five straight seasons and he can play anywhere in the infield if needed. On the other hand, his power numbers have been trending down the past four years and he'll need to move off of shortstop soon if not immediately, so you're getting a good hitter and maybe not a whole lot else.

He's also been consistently beating his expected offensive stats (xwOBA) -- he beat it by 40 points this year, the seventh-biggest gap -- or amount of "luck" -- in baseball this year. If his offense normalizes next year, it could get ugly, but that said, I tend to think he's doing something that xwOBA can't capture. One American League front office told me years ago that it stopped shifting against Bogaerts because he'd just start hitting the ball wherever the hole was, unlike any player it had encountered in the shifting era.

I could see him getting seven years in a good outcome, and that could get past $200 million, with Semien's deal last winter (seven years, $175 million) as a marker due to the similarities as a maybe-shortstop with uneven power history and Boras as an agent. Given how the Betts trade went and how current Rafael Devers extension talks are going on the heels of a disappointing season, I think the Boston Red Sox are motivated to keep Bogaerts -- so he could sign sooner than other top free agents.

5. Dansby Swanson, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 29

Projected contract: 6 years, $150 million ($25M AAV)

Swanson has really improved since the start of his career when some wondered if the 2015 No. 1 overall pick would be a bust. He's posted back-to-back 25-homer seasons along with playing elite defense at shortstop -- and he doesn't turn 29 until February. A couple of executives I spoke with said he tops Bogaerts easily, with a chance that Swanson will clear Semien's deal and get into the $180 million area. When you combine a six-WAR platform year with his power and defensive value, he offers a unique package on the market this year.

On the other hand, there is a concern that he could be a hitter peaking at the typical ages (26-28 exactly) who will get a big deal and immediately start declining offensively. On top of that, speed and defense tend to decline earlier than hitting skills, and those areas makes up a bigger part of Swanson's appeal than for other players on this tier. I'll split the difference in my projection, but the gap between the low and high prediction on Swanson is something like $30-40 million, while Bogaerts' is about double that.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34

Projected contract: 3 years, $132 million ($44M AAV)

The early chatter has been that bringing back Diaz and Nimmo were the priorities for the Mets while deGrom was more of a nice-to-have. On Sunday, the Mets paid Diaz $102 million over five years, basically paying a small premium from what was expected (I had $100 million over five years, as did others I spoke with) to keep him from testing the market.

That lends a little more credence to that aforementioned line of thinking. The real question here is if owner Steve Cohen has deGrom's name in the "don't lose under any circumstances" category or not. Last winter's deal for Scherzer (three years, $130 million) seems like a likely starting point to negotiations, but I don't think anyone will give deGrom that same AAV on a four-year deal given his durability issues.

What I'm projecting here is that he nominally tops Scherzer, sets a new AAV record, then gets a vesting option for the fourth year at a healthy rate (let's say $40 million) if he throws 130 innings or so in the third year of the deal. I'd guess that option comes with no buyout, but deGrom gets the same opt-out after the second year that Scherzer got in his deal. If deGrom wants to maximize guaranteed money, I think he could get four years for about $150-160 million.

7. Carlos Rodon, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 5 years, $130 million ($26M AAV)

The sneaky thing to keep an eye on in this year's crop is if Rodon gets a much bigger deal than expected. I had him pegged for a Kevin Gausman-esque (five years, $110 million) deal months ago, as both pitchers were high picks out of college who took awhile to reach expectations but became frontline types.

Gausman has always been a righty with a fringy breaking ball, which is a big concern for a high-dollar pitcher for many teams, while Rodon is a power lefty with a great breaking ball. Rodon's concerns were durability and consistency, but he's thrown over 300 innings the past two years with lights-out numbers that top Gausman's, after they both took their trip though the Giants' pitching optimization experience.

So, now the question for me is, by how much does Rodon beat Gausman's deal? A couple of executives guessed five years for $150 million, and if Rodon tops deGrom, I think that would shock some fans. I still have Rodon a hair behind deGrom, but don't be shocked if the lefty is the pitcher in this class who draws a bidding war.

8. Brandon Nimmo, CF

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 5 years, $118 million ($23.5M AAV)

Another free agent slowly climbing my projections over the past few months was Nimmo. He's the only everyday center fielder in this class, but he's also hit at least 34% better than league average at the plate for three straight years. He's basically above average at everything you can measure on the field. Similar to Turner, he's peaking a little later athletically, and while Nimmo was a first-round pick out of high school, he's from Wyoming and had the fewest reps of any high pick in recent memory, so the narrative makes some sense.

With market forces and Cohen being motivated to help Nimmo, I think he'll get a five-year deal for a nine-figure total, but I can't rule out a six-year deal when putting him next to some examples from last year's free agent class such as Trevor Story (six-year deal), Javier Baez (six), and Bryant (seven).

9. Justin Verlander, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 40

Projected contract: 2 years, $72 million ($36M AAV)

Verlander is likely to opt out of the final year ($25 million) of the two-year deal he signed last winter. He'll turn 40 years old before Opening Day and just had one of his best seasons, but he obviously has to be near the end. He shouldn't have a problem getting a two-year deal and getting more than $30 million per season, but I don't think he'll be threatening the Scherzer AAV record ($43.3 million).

10. Kodai Senga, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 5 years, $72 million ($14.4M AAV)

Senga is one of the best pitchers in Japan. He showcases a plus fastball often in the upper 90s and a plus splitter in a power pitcher mold. His breaking stuff is just OK, so he isn't a shoo-in frontline starter and might fit better in shorter stints or as a starter with a quick hook, but most clubs see him as somewhere from a second-to-fourth starter.

Given his age, command and breaking ball concerns, it's reasonable to expect a No. 3 starter but with more risk/reward/variance than other 30-year-old starters -- like the next pitcher on this list. Senga opted out of his contract in Japan and is a free agent, so he's not subject to posting rules. This means a $10-15 million fee that would've gone to his Nippon Professional Baseball club will just be included in his contract.

11. Taijuan Walker, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 4 years, $60 million ($15M AAV)

Walker was a former touted prospect who has tinkered with different pitches and mixes to find a balance that works for him. He still throws six distinct pitches, with his splitter the best of them. He's a durable starter and throws strikes but doesn't have one part of his game that blows you away. I'll be intrigued to see how the market values Walker and teammate Chris Bassitt relative to the unproven-in-MLB Senga and close-to-the-end Verlander. All four fit in the $50-75 million range but with pretty different ways of getting there.

12. Chris Bassitt, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34

Projected contract: 3 years, $53 million ($18M AAV)

Bassitt declined his $19 million mutual option and will likely get that sort of AAV on a multiyear deal. He has average fastball velocity and a low-70s slow curve that isn't exactly on trend, but he's a durable bulldog type who has figured out how to make it work. I think a two-year deal makes sense given his age and velocity, but every team is in need of this sort of arm, so I'd imagine a third year will be necessary to close the deal.

13. Jose Abreu, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 36

Projected contract: 2 years, $46 million ($23M AAV)

Abreu is a righty-hitting first baseman who turns 36 in January, so you'd think a number of teams would be out on a multiyear deal based on that alone, but Abreu is unique in notable ways. He's defying the typical aging curve, having one of his best seasons at age 35, and has been widely lauded for having perhaps the best makeup in baseball. He can't be given a qualifying offer, so there will be interest in a high-AAV, short-term deal with no draft-pick compensation for a universal DH candidate, despite his declining power numbers for two seasons.

14. Willson Contreras, C
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 3 years, $45 million ($15M AAV)

Contreras seems like a really good player on paper -- he has hit above league average while playing the hardest position on the field for seven straight seasons. He has big power and a big arm behind the plate, but he has mixed reviews on various other facets of his defense that could bring down his value a bit. Contreras might be a 1B/DH fit once he moves off of catcher for good at some point. I don't think there's a four-year offer out there for Contreras, but valuing catcher defense and projecting a player-specific aging curve is still an inexact science in which teams' opinions vary pretty widely, so I can't rule it out.

15. Andrew Benintendi, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 28

Projected contract: 3 years, $42 million ($14M AAV)

Benintendi is one of the youngest free agents in the class, which is notable since he was drafted out of college and reached the big leagues a year later. He had a huge 4.9 WAR season in 2018 but has been largely just OK otherwise, though 2022 was his second-best season. He hit 22% above league average and played an average left field. He's a low-end regular with what seems like some untapped upside, though he also might just be a 2-something WAR player the next two years, which would be a nice return for the signing club if he keeps that up.

16. Zach Eflin, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 28

Projected contract: 3 years, $39 million ($13M AAV)

Eflin is nominally at the front of a group of starters ranked in the next half-dozen spots who could end up in any order in guaranteed money once the dust settles. There is a surprising enthusiasm for Eflin among those I talked to in the industry. He is seen as a potentially untapped young starter who hasn't quite put together that bulk-innings season of No. 3/No. 4 starter quality, but has the tools to do so -- particularly if he goes to the group of teams best at pitcher optimization (Rodon, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Cobb and Andrew Heaney were examples last winter). I think roughly $40 million will be the top price this tier of pitchers gets, and there's probably a couple of them who get to that price, with guaranteed money in the high $20 millions as the lower end.

17. Ross Stripling, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 3 years, $36 million ($12M AAV)

Stripling is another intriguing starter in this third tier. He broke out this season with improved command of his 2021 repertoire and a career high of 134⅓ innings. He doesn't have the gaudy velocity, strikeout or ground ball numbers teams might prefer, but in this range, you primarily are looking for reliable regular-season innings more than a primary playoff starter.

18. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 2 years, $34 million ($17M AAV)

Rizzo got two years, $32 million last winter but had a nice bounce-back year at the plate, so he'll hit the market again for a fresh multiyear deal with similar terms. However, a potential qualifying offer could put a wrench in those plans.

19. Tyler Anderson, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 2 years, $33 million ($16.5M AAV)

Anderson is another pitcher in this muddled second tier who probably will get paid a bit less than his 2022 performance indicates because he doesn't throw hard, strike many batters out or get that many ground balls -- and he turns 33 this winter. That said, he threw 167 and 178⅔ innings the past two seasons, respectively, and seems like he'll have a better-than-league-average ERA the next few seasons, even if his 2.57 ERA in 2022 might overstate his ability.

20. Brandon Drury, 3B
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 3 years, $33 million ($11M AAV)

Drury has been a pretty decent-to-meh player going back to 2015 but then was surprisingly excellent in 2022 for his age-29 season, timed well to make the most of it in free agency. Underlying numbers suggest Drury was pretty lucky with outcomes this year, and I think teams are looking at him as a very good utility guy who starts most days and is insurance for a number of players on a winning team rather than a lock starter penciled in the same spot every day. Something like $8-11 million per year for two or three years would make sense here.

21. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million ($15M AAV)

On the other hand in reference to Anderson, Eovaldi has been getting more support than I expected for a soon-to-be-33-year-old with two Tommy John surgeries in his past, just 20 starts this season, and fourth starter-ish peripherals this year. He still sits 95-97 mph with a power arsenal and has had under two walks per nine innings for three straight years, so there's a number of roles he could be useful in. He's also unlikely to be kicked off the staff for a playoff run like some soft-tossers often are.

22. Jameson Taillon, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 2 years, $30 million ($15M AAV)

Like Eovaldi, Taillon also throws hard, has a good breaking ball, has shrunk his walks below two per nine innings, and has undergone two Tommy John surgeries. One of the starters in this 16th-to-22nd group will be the optimization project du jour, and they all have some qualities that I think progressive clubs will like.

23. Michael Brantley, LF
2022 Opening Day age: 35

Projected contract: 2 years, $28 million ($14M AAV)

Brantley played only 64 games this year for the Houston Astros because of a shoulder injury, but he looked like his normal self with more walks than strikeouts and solid-enough power. I thought given his age and injury he'd have to settle for a one-year deal, but sources tell me there should be enough interest for a multiyear deal, in keeping with the "proven hitter premium" I'm being told to price in.

24. Jose Quintana, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34

Projected contract: 2 years, $28 million ($14M AAV)

Quintana had a bad 2021 and didn't come close to making last year's top 50, settling for a $2 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals as a rental on the strength of a bounce-back year and now once again looks like a solid finesse lefty No. 4 starter.

25. Martin Perez, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)

Like Matt Moore below, Perez is another pitcher with whom sources didn't totally buy into the 2022 performance, in part because of the up-and-down nature of Perez's career until this past season. I think the market sees him as a fourth starter, but there's some margin for error since the combination of velocity, strikeouts, ground balls and bulk innings added up to the 18th-best starter in baseball by WAR in 2022.

26. Rafael Montero, RHP

Elsa/Getty Images
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)

Montero has long been a heavy fastball usage reliever, usually 60-70%, and he succeeded because of how he commanded the pitch. Now his velocity and ground ball rate are up a few ticks since those Mets seasons, and he's a steady setup option.

27. Jurickson Profar, LF
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 2 years, $24 million ($12M AAV)

Profar had a player option for $8.33 million that he declined on Monday, and he now figures to get a multiyear deal at a better rate after bouncing back at the plate from a down year in 2021. He's regressed since his prospect days, not offering much on the basepaths or defensively, and he's got just average power, but he can hit.

28. Joc Pederson, LF
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 2 years, $24 million ($12M AAV)

Pederson looked like he'd regressed into a platoon player after down 2020 and 2021 seasons at ages 28 and 29, but then he had a resurgent 2022 with a career-best season at the plate. He's below average defensively in the outfield, but he's hitting again and he's not scared of the big moment.

29. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 35

Projected contract: 1 year, $20 million

Kershaw is worth more than this contract, but he seems happy signing for roughly the qualifying offer on a one-year deal annually. The Dodgers don't want to rush his decision, so they probably won't give him a QO this year either.

30. Andrew Heaney, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M AAV)

Heaney was a trendy buy-low pitcher last winter, of the sort that the Dodgers and Giants often take fliers on, eventually getting $8.5 million from the Dodgers. He made only 14 starts this year, but his velocity was up a tick and his peripherals improved, meaning now he's a little more in demand and likely gets a two-year deal as a club hopes it can get some bulk innings at this new level of performance.

31. Josh Bell, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M AAV)

Bell just turned 30 and is a solid on-base and power threat, but not enough to be more than a low-end starter because he brings very little in terms of speed or defensive value.

32. Michael Conforto, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 1 year, $19 million

Conforto had a bit of a down 2021 season, leading to a tough-to-read market last winter (I projected three years, $51 million). Before he could sign, he was knocked out for the year by a shoulder injury, so he remained a free agent. Now he seems likely to just get a one-year deal for $15-20 million, so he'll have to prove himself once again and get the big payday next winter. He doesn't turn 30 until March 1, so there's some upside left.

33. Jean Segura, 2B
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 2 years, $19 million ($9.5M AAV)

The Philadelphia Phillies had a $17 million club option with a $1 million buyout on Segura that they declined. He's been an above-average big league hitter for six of the past seven seasons, and he's also an above-average defensive second baseman, but teams are just trying to make sure they don't get his decline into reserve status included in this deal.

34. Matt Moore, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 33

Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million ($9M AAV)

Moore has bounced around after he was originally ranked right next to Harper and Mike Trout on prospect lists in 2010 (yes, you read that right). He was a No. 3/No. 4 starter a couple of seasons in his 20s but tailed off later on before having a breakout year in 2022, with a 1.95 ERA in 74 innings of relief and a couple of ERA estimators under 3.00. He sits 93-95 mph and has a power curveball, but teams I spoke with think his 2022 season overstates his ability and he isn't that far ahead of Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers and Matt Strahm in the lefty setup market.

35. Robert Suarez, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $17 million ($8.5M AAV)

Suarez was playing in Mexico in 2015, then in Japan from 2016 to 2021. He bet on himself last winter, getting an opt-out in a two-year deal, so he'll forgo a $5 million salary for 2023 and get a fresh multiyear deal this winter. There's a bit of a stigma on right-handed starters with fringy breaking balls, but some teams do like relievers such as Suarez who are fastball/changeup-heavy (86% use of those two pitches), since they can get lefties out and turning over a lineup isn't an issue.

36. Nick Martinez, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $16 million ($8M AAV)

Like Suarez, the San Diego Padres signed Martinez after he played multiple years in Japan, with multiple player option/opt-outs in his deal in case he overperformed it. He had a solid year of above-average pitching, throwing 106⅓ innings as both a starter and reliever. It's about a coin-flip decision (rival teams think he's more likely to opt out) since his current deal -- three years, $19.5 million, opt-outs each year -- and the $1.5 million buyout if he opts outs plus his new deal would be pretty similar.

Since not all of the opt-outs or contractual options were decided at press time, I've been overly inclusive of anyone who might become a free agent with, let's say, a 25% or more chance of hitting the market. I've noted where those decisions are close calls, with players like Martinez and Justin Turner among those who could easily never hit the market.

37. Sean Manaea, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 1 year, $15 million

Manaea has an outside shot to get a qualifying offer ($19.65 million) and have draft compensation attached, but I think he'll come in just below that as an innings-eating lefty who works in the low 90s. He's young enough that I could see a team thinking there's something they can unlock here and gambling with a multiyear deal.

38. Chris Martin, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 36

Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5M AAV)

He made his big league debut at age 28, spent his age-30 and age-31 seasons in Japan, then returned to the big leagues at age 32 in 2018 and has been excellent ever since. He had a career year in 2022 for the Chicago Cubs and Dodgers, and he seems like a solid bet to keep doing it.

39. Andrew Chafin, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5M AAV)

Chafin plans to decline his $6.5 million player option, and I think he'll best that number in AAV and then tack on an extra year. His velocity has slipped a bit the past few years, but his control and ground ball rate have more than made up for it.

40. Kenley Jansen, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 35

Projected contract: 1 year, $14 million

Jansen can sometimes give heart attacks to fans of his team because it's a bit risky to throw a low-90s cutter 64% of the time if you aren't Mariano Rivera. Somehow, his underlying stats have been nearly identical for five straight years, and he has the late-inning and playoff success that's a key intangible for free agent relievers. The Atlanta Braves gave him $16 million last winter, and he's still the same guy, just a year older.

41. Taylor Rogers, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million ($7M AAV)

Rogers is a low-slot lefty reliever (not to be confused with his brother Tyler, a submarine righty reliever) who had a down year but is still regarded as a solid lefty setup man.

42. Christian Vazquez, C
2022 Opening Day age: 32

Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million ($7M AAV)

Vazquez is a steady defensive presence with some contact skills and is a clear starter, but he doesn't have a ton of impact.

This is around where non-tenders who would become free agents in a couple of weeks could make this list. The crop of potential players who might reasonably be added to this free agent market include (in order of projected guaranteed money): Cody Bellinger, Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela and Brad Keller.

43. Noah Syndergaard, RHP

2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 1 year, $13.5 million

"Thor" signed for $21 million on a one-year deal last winter after making just two starts off of Tommy John surgery. He wasn't as good as many hoped this year, sitting 93-96 mph instead of 96-100 mph before surgery. He looks like a backend starter.

44. Matt Carpenter, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 37

Projected contract: 1 year, $13 million

The Yankees sprinkled their pixie dust on Carpenter and he put up otherworldly numbers for 47 games in 2022, but then he missed the rest of the year with a foot injury before coming back to earth.

45. Corey Kluber, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 36

Projected contract: 1 year, $13 million

He's still the guy you remember, throwing his cutter and curveball 62% of the time, but his fastball now sits 88-90 mph. He's more a solid-average innings-eater than the ace he was in his prime.

46. Gary Sanchez, C
2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5M AAV)

You probably know Sanchez's weaknesses (defensive inconsistency, contact rate), but he's still got huge power and a big arm -- and is clearly one of the 30 best catchers in the world.

47. Chad Green, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5M AAV)

Green had Tommy John surgery in June, so he'll sign a two-year deal to maybe pitch next season, then be back to his normal setup-level self in 2023.

48. Matt Strahm, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5M AAV)

Strahm's velocity jumped a tick this year after he missed almost all of 2021 because of knee surgery. He's a solid lefty setup type who throws mostly heaters and breakers.

49. Michael Lorenzen, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31

Projected contract: 1 year, $12 million

Lorenzen is a superlative two-way performer who showed flashes for the Los Angeles Angels this season, starting full time for the first time since his rookie season. He's probably not a 180-inning starter, but he has six distinctive pitches and plenty of upside for a good pitching development organization.

50. Justin Turner, 3B
2022 Opening Day age: 38

Projected contract: 1 year, $11 million

Turner has a $16 million club option with a $2 million buyout, so I think the Dodgers will decline it and bring him back at a lower rate, but it's a close call. If the Dodgers pick up this option, you can slide buy-low toolshed Joey Gallo or steady DH J.D. Martinez on the end of this list.

Here's a rundown of the rest of the current or potentially could-soon-be free agents. They're ranked within their positional tiers, and I've noted where there are contractual options that haven't been resolved yet, though those should all be resolved by Thursday. "C" denotes a club option (the club makes the decision), "P" is player option and is also referred to as an opt-out, and "M" is mutual option.

Catchers (15): Omar Narvaez, Mike Zunino, Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges, Curt Casali, Tucker Barnhart, Jason Castro, Pedro Severino, Kevin Plawecki, Andrew Knapp, Sandy Leon, Austin Romine, Stephen Vogt, Robinson Chirinos, Kurt Suzuki

Infielders/designated hitters (37): J.D. Martinez, Adam Frazier, Evan Longoria (C), Elvis Andrus, Trey Mancini, Carlos Santana, Aledmys Diaz, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, Miguel Sano, Jace Peterson, Jose Iglesias, Donovan Solano, Josh Harrison, Nelson Cruz, Chad Pinder, Marwin Gonzalez, Rougned Odor, Jesus Aguilar (M), Didi Gregorius, Matt Duffy, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Hanser Alberto, Andrelton Simmons, Charlie Culberson, Jake Lamb, Maikel Franco, Jonathan Villar, Ehire Adrianza, Nike Goodrum, Colin Moran, Chris Owings, Tim Beckham, Robinson Cano, Cesar Hernandez, Dee Strange-Gordon

Outfielders (24): Joey Gallo, Mitch Haniger, Kevin Kiermaier (C), David Peralta, Adam Duvall, AJ Pollock, Charlie Blackmon (P), Wil Myers, Tommy Pham, Andrew McCutchen, Tyler Naquin, Corey Dickerson, Robbie Grossman, Nomar Mazara, Kole Calhoun, Ben Gamel, Stephen Piscotty, Alex Dickerson, Jake Marisnick, Travis Jankowski, Jackie Bradley Jr., Billy Hamilton, Kevin Pillar, Justin Upton, Brett Phillips, Odubel Herrera

Right-handed pitchers (61): Johnny Cueto, Kyle Gibson, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Wacha, Jake Odorizzi (P), Jordan Lyles (C), Zack Greinke, Michael Fulmer, Zach Davies (M), Adam Ottavino, Drew Rucinski (KBO), David Robertson, Dylan Bundy, Shintaro Fujinami (NPB), Mike Clevinger, Pierce Johnson, Corey Knebel, Seth Lugo, Mychal Givens (M), Brad Boxberger, Jose Urena, David Phelps, Trevor Williams, Chris Archer, Trevor May, Craig Stammen, Luke Jackson, Carlos Estevez, Tommy Kahnle, Miguel Castro, Chad Kuhl, Erasmo Ramirez, Vince Velasquez, Aaron Sanchez, Archie Bradley, Anibal Sanchez, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Pineda, Steve Cishek, Tommy Hunter, Matt Wisler, Darren O'Day, Dominic Leone, Jeurys Familia, Joe Ross, Noe Ramirez, Kohei Arihara, Jay Jackson, Joe Smith, Sergio Romo, Jharel Cotton, Will Harris, Hansel Robles, Alex Colome, Tyler Clippard, Ian Kennedy, Bryan Shaw, Wily Peralta, Jesse Chavez, Hunter Strickland, Chase Anderson

Left-handed pitchers (20): Mike Minor, Wade Miley, Will Smith (C), Drew Smyly (M), Aroldis Chapman, Rich Hill, James Paxton (P), Brad Hand, Matt Boyd, Joely Rodriguez, Justin Wilson (C), Danny Duffy (C), Zack Britton, David Price, Ross Detwiler, Danny Coulombe, Daniel Norris, Jose Alvarez, Jake McGee, Dallas Keuchel

Long as fuck entire article.

Thanks for the effort

Edited by TonyTexas
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IDIOTsavant

IDIOTsavant 8685

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

SI sent Apstein out to write another hit piece on Jim Crane.

Reprehensible lack of journalistic integrity, she probably wrote the foreword for Evan Drellich's dumb book nobody will read. 

 

Yo Stephanie, Crane has won without Click and Dusty. They haven’t won without him. I like Dusty (yes, I disagree with a lot of the lineups in the regular season), but to credit Click with all of the Astros success over the last three seasons is disingenuous at best. Put the fucking axe down and grab some perspective. George Steinbrenner was a pain to work for because he expected to fucking win. As a fan, you can’t ask for more than that. Being difficult to work for might make him a bad boss, but fuck you if you think he’s a bad owner.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15242

Posted
Posted

Crane is going to come off looking awful with the way he's handling Click. Dusty is fine to offer a one-year deal, because it's likely his last, win or lose. Click was more right about Brantley and Gurriel being done than Crane, the Contreras trade was a decent offer, given that Contreras would have been a better bat than the 2 guys we did pick combined, and he did build the best bullpen the Astros have ever had, slightly better than the Lidge-Dotel-Wagner bullpen of the early 00's.

Maybe the Astros and Brewers can pull off the 1st ever FO trade of Click for Sterns, as Milwaukee isn't letting Sterns interview, otherwise, Crane may end up running the team without a GM for a year if Sterns is really the guy he wants.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23037

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Crane is going to come off looking awful with the way he's handling Click. Dusty is fine to offer a one-year deal, because it's likely his last, win or lose. Click was more right about Brantley and Gurriel being done than Crane, the Contreras trade was a decent offer, given that Contreras would have been a better bat than the 2 guys we did pick combined, and he did build the best bullpen the Astros have ever had, slightly better than the Lidge-Dotel-Wagner bullpen of the early 00's.

Maybe the Astros and Brewers can pull off the 1st ever FO trade of Click for Sterns, as Milwaukee isn't letting Sterns interview, otherwise, Crane may end up running the team without a GM for a year if Sterns is really the guy he wants.

?

Dudes finished 1-2 in batting in the year immediately following the extensions.

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7778

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I will give Click credit for building a great bullpen.  He is much better at it than Luhnow.  Everything else he just didn't fuck it up.

Building a historically GREAT bullpen without giving away proven players and then winning a World Series title deserves a little more respect than just being a GM placeholder who didn't fuck it up. He grabbed all yall's favorite whippin boy Aggy off the scrap heap and turned him into a valuable reliever out of the bullpen (and then let him walk in FA), traded for Yimi and Graveman (also letting them walk) and got a throwaway in Montero who  became a huge contributor in this WS championship season. 

 Not to mention letting Correa walk and believing he would be adequately replaced by Pena. 

 

Edited by Gourmand
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