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2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

tx 3 putt

By tx 3 putt
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Gourmand

Gourmand 7778

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8 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

I don't believe I have said "all." I have said they tend to, it's nearly inevitable, etc.  That's not "my truth," that's what the data says.

So you have to bank on Valdez being the rare exception.

Based on what data exactly? From what I've read it originated with Bill James arguing that groundball heavy pitchers tend to suffer more rotational injuries, which was later rebutted by others weighing in. There's one article from Fangraphs about one study asking this question but it's from 2016. I'm not arguing there isn't data to support this idea, but I'm asking how much we can actually put into that one article as an article of faith as it relates to an anomaly like Framber Valdez.

What about guys like Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux? And Hernandez had a helluva career even if he was out of MLB by his age 33 season (with a shitload of IPs on his arm). 

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tx 3 putt
tx 3 putt

You wanted us. You got us.  You got your asses beat !   Let's do it again in 2023     

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

love these articles and comments from the mlb media about marring a world series or how the baseball world will be critical of the astros for this move. get. the. fuck. out. with. that. nonsense.

MaybeACoordinator
MaybeACoordinator

Going through old pics because of the death of my grandmother / mom and came across this -- 1996, my son's first Astros game.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

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2 hours ago, formermav43 said:

You've already mentioned 3 of them for starters - Keuchel, Correa, Springer (whom you evidently view as a big loss, and I'd argue the jury is still out on given the length of the contract, not to mention the fact that Tucker made him unnecessary - he's not good in CF anymore).

That statement was made in the context of your statement that, "teams routinely pay bigger money to aging players in the back end of contracts knowing there's a good chance the player's performance will fall off." None of those deals fall into that category - the oldest player at the end of it will be Altuve, at 34, and his AAV is a bargain. But they wouldn't budge on the years for Correa. Springer will be heading into his age 38 season when he's a free agent. Etc. And every single guy you named they extended was younger than Valdez is now - and that's without taking into account the aging of groundball pitchers that we already have covered.

So the question is, is Valdez more like the young guys they extended, or the older guys they didn't want to give longterm deals to? Even at 5/$90 like you propose, is he more likely to be an effective starter at 34, or washed up before he even hits free agency? I don't think "giving him his money" based on what he did last year is smart, and I think the Astros history of NOT doing business that way is a good thing.  

5/90 is too much. That would be 2/60 in his FA. Unless you mean 5/90 after his 6M or whatever it is this year. They would be fine. That’s essential 6/95 then. You don’t give him 30 a year in FA. 20 tops. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6360

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2 hours ago, Gourmand said:

Btw it case any of you assholes missed it, my most hated ex-Chron Astros beat reporter appeared on Greg Rajan's podcast this week to hawk his new book about the Astros and discuss the shit we're tired of hearing about but also inside information about the Astros front office he learned from his time covering the Luhnow Astros. 

I hate to say it, but he came off better than I expected in this podcast (which I only listened to because I trust Rajan) and he revealed some interesting details outside of the sign-stealing scandal that I'd never heard before (re Springer and also AJ Hinch/Luhnow/JV trade). 

 https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/podcast/article/astros-evan-drellich-winning-fixes-everything-17770669.php

What are the highlights, for those of us unwilling to create an account?

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7778

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28 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

What are the highlights, for those of us unwilling to create an account?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/podcast/article/astros-evan-drellich-winning-fixes-everything-17770669.php?utm_source=marketing&utm_medium=copy-url-link&utm_campaign=article-share&hash=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaG91c3RvbmNocm9uaWNsZS5jb20vdGV4YXMtc3BvcnRzLW5hdGlvbi9wb2RjYXN0L2FydGljbGUvYXN0cm9zLWV2YW4tZHJlbGxpY2gtd2lubmluZy1maXhlcy1ldmVyeXRoaW5nLTE3NzcwNjY5LnBocA==&time=MTY3NjE0NjM2Mzc5OQ==&rid=ZWIwYjZmZGItNjBmOS00MzQ1LTg5OGYtYjVhYjc3YTdjMjdl&sharecount=MQ==

 One that really stood out to me was him saying the Astros were trying to sign Springer to an extension before he'd made his debut (basically what they did with Singleton) and they brought him to Houston under the guise of a medical/eye exam and then sat him down to talk contract extension WITHOUT HIS AGENT present and that pissed George off to the point where he told others around him that he'd get his when the time came (money/revenge?).....Also, Luhnow and Hinch weren't the best of friends and clashed on many occasions. Hinch was tossed in the first inning of a game vs TB during Harvey and used that time to get on the phone with his connections in Detroit to get JV trade talks back on the radar. Also dished on Taubman as Luhnow's key operative (along with Mike Fast being the most unheralded important contributor to their success) and said that Taubman was pissed about not being named Special Asst to the GM and that may have fed into the incident during the playoffs. Also there was obvious conflict between Hinch and Cora.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19455

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It probably doesn't tell us a whole lot, but I graphed the average age of the top 25 ground ball pitchers and top 25 fly ball pitchers by year.  In general, FB pitchers tend to be older, but the average age difference per year is 0.6 years.

I guess it could be interesting to see how pitchers progress; i.e. do young GB pitchers become old FB pitchers?  How does a pitchers WAR / FIP / whatever change as a function of their batted ball type?  How has the proliferation of K's changed the scene?  Fly ball pitchers seem to be more of your power K guys while GB pitchers are usually thought of as being the soft-throwing "crafty" fuckers.  There are exceptions of course. 

Further investigation of those ideas are left as exercises for the reader.

 

image.thumb.png.77de24a7abbea2c8f0296f853174ffb2.png

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

It probably doesn't tell us a whole lot, but I graphed the average age of the top 25 ground ball pitchers and top 25 fly ball pitchers by year.  In general, FB pitchers tend to be older, but the average age difference per year is 0.6 years.

I guess it could be interesting to see how pitchers progress; i.e. do young GB pitchers become old FB pitchers?  How does a pitchers WAR / FIP / whatever change as a function of their batted ball type?  How has the proliferation of K's changed the scene?  Fly ball pitchers seem to be more of your power K guys while GB pitchers are usually thought of as being the soft-throwing "crafty" fuckers.  There are exceptions of course. 

Further investigation of those ideas are left as exercises for the reader.

 

image.thumb.png.77de24a7abbea2c8f0296f853174ffb2.png

That massive dip before 2010 coincided with the launch angle revolution I think. 

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The Astros took the lickin and kept on tickin.

Nothing is going to change the minds of the haters( or Manfred.)  I don't care for the rehashing, as any true evidence has already been being ignored.

We know who they are.  They know who they are.

Fuck em.  Moving on and keep on trucking for H-Town.  LFG!!!

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19455

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3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That massive dip before 2010 coincided with the launch angle revolution I think. 

The dip in 2009 was more a function of who retired at the end of 2008 or otherwise wasn't among the top 25 groundball pitchers in 2009.  From the list of 2008 pitchers in the ground ball bucket, Greg Maddux (age 42 - retired), Mike Mussina (age 39 - retired) and Andy Pettite (age 36 - wound up #50 in 2009) were not on the 2009 list.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

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34 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The dip in 2009 was more a function of who retired at the end of 2008 or otherwise wasn't among the top 25 groundball pitchers in 2009.  From the list of 2008 pitchers in the ground ball bucket, Greg Maddux (age 42 - retired), Mike Mussina (age 39 - retired) and Andy Pettite (age 36 - wound up #50 in 2009) were not on the 2009 list.

Thanks. That chart was not saying what I thought it was saying. Looking at it again is still interesting though. I was thinking effectiveness. 

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7778

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18 minutes ago, Scraps said:

I still think it is like 35% that Tucker signs a deal. I think he wants free agency

Agreed, I think it is more likely the Astros get Framber under contract before he hits FA in 2026 than Tucker. Tucker is the one driving that car but you have to wonder how far the front office is willing to go to sign Tucker to a long-term deal with Gilbert, Melton, and Leon waiting in the minors. 

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runthebone

runthebone 8376

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9 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Handicapping odds of each player signing an extension before 2023 opening day:

Tucker 10%
Valdez 12%
Altuve 12%
Bregman 8%
Garcia 8%
B Abreu 15%

Pena 5%

Brown 5%
Y Diaz 8%

McCormick 5%

Leon 1%
Lee 1%

Urquidy 1%
Stanek 5%
Maton 2%
Others 2%

Maton's extension is a AAA contract, right?

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uoftorange

uoftorange 1391

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On 2/11/2023 at 11:33 AM, Gourmand said:

I hate to say it, but he came off better than I expected

I guess that's in eye of the beholder.  He definitely came off as being confident in his opinion.  He also came off as a pompous douche with the way he talked about literally everything.  I'm pre-disposed not to like him, but he came off like "everything in this book is exactly how things happened on all teams", which we know can't even come close to being true.  

He repeated the idiotic "Altuve didn't stop it".  No one stopped it.  Nor really could they have in the way that people want on the outside.
"Astros cheated on the road", there has been no evidence of this literally at all.  And he didn't provide any in the conversation.  

He talked about presenting a full picture, but the truth is, he wanted to make money on this, and writing this book and shutting up before hand was literally the only way to do it.  

His one and only source was Mike Fiers.  He even says that he realized it in the 2018 postseason that they were cheating.  This was long after everyone states the Astros stopped doing it, including the league and Ken Rosenthal.  

But whatever, the Astros were/are just better at it all.  They were better at "cheating", they were better at not doing it too.  I've moved on, and so has most of the rest of the world of baseball.  

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78679

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Pure internet speculation ….

Based on Javier’s extension and what Valdez is looking for, my best guess for what a Framber Valdez extension could look like: 

$4 million signing bonus

2023 – $6.8 million

2024 – $12.8 million

2025 – $18.8 million

2026-2029 – $28 million

Total: $154.4 million with an average annual value of $22 million

 

 

Would Jim Crane sign a pitcher for seven years? Valdez is coming off an excellent 2022 season that saw him finish 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA. Looking at Jacob deGrom‘s $30 million or Yu Darvish‘s $25 million for 2023, where does Valdez fit between those two pitchers?

The market for starting pitchers is inflated at the moment. If a pitcher like Valdez can be extended with a $22 million AAV, the Astros should make it happen. That would only be $3-4 million more than the qualifying offer. What do you think a potential extension for Valdez would look like?

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Pure internet speculation ….

Based on Javier’s extension and what Valdez is looking for, my best guess for what a Framber Valdez extension could look like: 

$4 million signing bonus

2023 – $6.8 million

2024 – $12.8 million

2025 – $18.8 million

2026-2029 – $28 million

Total: $154.4 million with an average annual value of $22 million

 

 

Would Jim Crane sign a pitcher for seven years? Valdez is coming off an excellent 2022 season that saw him finish 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA. Looking at Jacob deGrom‘s $30 million or Yu Darvish‘s $25 million for 2023, where does Valdez fit between those two pitchers?

The market for starting pitchers is inflated at the moment. If a pitcher like Valdez can be extended with a $22 million AAV, the Astros should make it happen. That would only be $3-4 million more than the qualifying offer. What do you think a potential extension for Valdez would look like?

That looks very close to what I would expect.  Unfortunately I do not consider that a very team friendly deal.  Pretty much paying market rate for those free agent years which are into his mid 30s.

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