2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

5 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

That looks very close to what I would expect.  Unfortunately I do not consider that a very team friendly deal.  Pretty much paying market rate for those free agent years which are into his mid 30s.

Yeah that looks like market ratE. The number needs to be 8 digits not 9 and I’m the founding member of the pay Em all and lock Em up early fan club. That’s too much though. 

[rvm96 1643]

15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah that looks like market ratE. The number needs to be 8 digits not 9 and I’m the founding member of the pay Em all and lock Em up early fan club. That’s too much though. 

Would you try to lock up Abreu now before trying him as a starter? I know relievers are notorious for being up and down so there's that potential negative.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

1 hour ago, rvm96 said:

Would you try to lock up Abreu now before trying him as a starter? I know relievers are notorious for being up and down so there's that potential negative.

Absolutely.  I'd offer Abreu something like 7/50 right now and then tell him he's a starter for me until he proves he can't do it.  That's buying out 1 year at minimum wage- 3 years of arbitration and 3 years of FA.  Worst case- he stays a reliever and not a closer while Presley is here that's something like 12M between here and FA and then that's a 3/ 38M FA deal.  That's basically what we just gave Montero, right? 

Best case he turns into an really really good starter in which case we will have a contract that is deal of the century type for us.  Either way I'd do that deal.  He's your closer after Presley at a worst case I'd think. 

Personally, if he's not going to be a starter I probably trade Presley for some prospects and use that 14M extra a year to fix Catcher by signing a guy like Contreras or trading for the Oakland guy... Oh wait- we blew our chance to fix our only actual hole some time ago.  Shrugs.  This is a great team and I love what the new GM is doing.  I wonder if he'd have signed Contreras for basically peanuts.  Sounds like he values hitting in a catcher. I'd like that.  The pitcher is responsible for calling his own game.  The catcher is a glorified caddy. 

Edited February 14, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[IDIOTsavant 8437]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The pitcher is responsible for calling his own game.  The catcher is a glorified caddy. 

Usually agree with you, but can’t get on board with this. If the pitcher’s calling the game, that’s 12 or 13 guys calling a game with a ton of variance in ability to do so.  Having a catcher that can do it is extremely important/beneficial IMO.

[TonyTexas 10481]

58 minutes ago, rvm96 said:

Would you try to lock up Abreu now before trying him as a starter? I know relievers are notorious for being up and down so there's that potential negative.

That’s a tough one. If you knew he was going to end up a middle of the rotation starter then sure. You could get him dirt cheap. But he has 4 years of club control so an extension wouldn’t make sense if he’s going to remain in the pen. 

[kevwun 15608]

Abreu was best in one inning stints, he often struggled when Dusty tried to get 2 innings out of him.  I think he'd be a mediocre starter.  He's more valuable right now in the bullpen.

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

47 minutes ago, IDIOTsavant said:

Usually agree with you, but can’t get on board with this. If the pitcher’s calling the game, that’s 12 or 13 guys calling a game with a ton of variance in ability to do so.  Having a catcher that can do it is extremely important/beneficial IMO.

I used caddy on purpose.  He might hand the club to the golfer, or make a suggestion, but the golfer is ALWAYS at the end of the day responsible for what club he uses and the pitcher ALWAYS at the end of the day is responsible for what pitch he throws.  Any fingers the catcher throws down are merely a suggestion, to be ignored at the whim of the pitcher, for any reason he wants.  Now, a rookie pitcher with a veteran catcher might get a lot of shit for that, sure, but the pitcher has to have the confidence in what they are going to throw and they are responsible for throwing what they feel like they can get a guy out with.  

[tx 3 putt 76296]

2 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

 

it makes for good offseason talk 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

They have 6 SP lined up plus Whitley and Bielak and a few other interesting arms in AAA.  Abreu was utterly dominant out of the pen last season.  Not worth the risk of derailing him to try to get greedy.

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

They have 6 SP lined up plus Whitley and Bielak and a few other interesting arms in AAA.  Abreu was utterly dominant out of the pen last season.  Not worth the risk of derailing him to try to get greedy.

What's the downside to him starting some? If he sucks he goes to the bullpen no worse for the wear. If he's awesome then you can trade Urquidy and Garcia for a legit long term solution at Catcher, or you can trade LMJ for cost savings to use to extend Tucker/Bregman

[kevwun 15608]

Well they would have to replace him in the bullpen.  You are filling a non existent hole while creating a real one.

Edited February 14, 2023 by kevwun

[Dutchrudder 11113]

47 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Well they would have to replace him in the bullpen.  You are filling a non existent hole while creating a real one.

Let Stanek have the 8th inning?

[Jshep34 2303]

Who is Stanek? He doesn't play in the post-season.

[tx 3 putt 76296]

 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

59 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What's the downside to him starting some? If he sucks he goes to the bullpen no worse for the wear. If he's awesome then you can trade Urquidy and Garcia for a legit long term solution at Catcher, or you can trade LMJ for cost savings to use to extend Tucker/Bregman

Transitioning roles for pitchers comes with risk.  Dudes change their pitch mix and effort level based on role and there’s always the chance doing that fucks them up.  If Houston only had 4-5 viable SP I would be a lot more open to it.  Abreu’s upside is that of a healthy McCullers.  He’s not going to be a playoff ace, but he could be a viable #2 starter worth $25-30M/yr.  That would be awesome but I don’t think the odds of that outcome are high enough to justify taking him out of his established role as a playoff-closer-level reliever.

Edited February 14, 2023 by Snake Diggity

[henrygandorf 29174]

moving abreu out of the pen falls under one of those if-it-ain't-broke type of things for me.  we have 6 sp that i trust.  we have 5 bullpen arms that i trust.  we have created a situation where our starters can go less often and throw fewer innings to win games.

why don't we just try altuve in center while we're at it?

[tx 3 putt 76296]

51 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Well they would have to replace him in the bullpen.  You are filling a non existent hole while creating a real one.

Martinez is a good young arm out there 

[kevwun 15608]

Yeah, he's probably ready for regular bullpen use.  But it's a really big step to being a late innings guy you trust in the playoffs from there.

[tx 3 putt 76296]

We have 162 games to get playoff ready 

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

Well they would have to replace him in the bullpen.  You are filling a non existent hole while creating a real one.

We've got more high leverage guys then we truly need.  We are paying Neris, Montero and Presley roughly 30M a year. They should be able to handle leverage.  Rest of the guys are just fine too.  There is nothing more valuable than good starting pitching. The more you have the better.  

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Transitioning roles for pitchers comes with risk.  Dudes change their pitch mix and effort level based on role and there’s always the chance doing that fucks them up.  If Houston only had 4-5 viable SP I would be a lot more open to it.  Abreu’s upside is that of a healthy McCullers.  He’s not going to be a playoff ace, but he could be a viable #2 starter worth $25-30M/yr.  That would be awesome but I don’t think the odds of that outcome are high enough to justify taking him out of his established role as a playoff-closer-level reliever.

Oh man, I don't know about that.  LMJ is really good but I think Abreu's upside is higher than the present day, post multiple surgery and whatever the hell last year was LMJ that's held together with duck tape and bailing wire.  

Creating 25-30M worth of value is so so so much greater than leverage reliever I just don't see how you don't give it a try if you think it has any chance at all of sticking.  People were talking about Javier being a transition guy the last two years and I was losing my mind saying- he's a starter.  Full stop.  It's stupid the way we had people talking about using him all the way into the playoffs last year.   We owe it to ourselves to find out if Abreu can be the same imo.  Yeah- he's awesome as an 8th inning guy.  He would be a great closer.  But so would just about any good starting pitcher and nobody says- he lets transition this good starter into a great bullpen guy b/c the values aren't even close to the same.  Bullpen is where you go when you can't hack it starting. Give him the chance to prove that. 

[Scraps 13538]

No to Abreu being a SP

[henrygandorf 29174]

36 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Oh man, I don't know about that.  LMJ is really good but I think Abreu's upside is higher than the present day, post multiple surgery and whatever the hell last year was LMJ that's held together with duck tape and bailing wire.  

Creating 25-30M worth of value is so so so much greater than leverage reliever I just don't see how you don't give it a try if you think it has any chance at all of sticking.  People were talking about Javier being a transition guy the last two years and I was losing my mind saying- he's a starter.  Full stop.  It's stupid the way we had people talking about using him all the way into the playoffs last year.   We owe it to ourselves to find out if Abreu can be the same imo.  Yeah- he's awesome as an 8th inning guy.  He would be a great closer.  But so would just about any good starting pitcher and nobody says- he lets transition this good starter into a great bullpen guy b/c the values aren't even close to the same.  Bullpen is where you go when you can't hack it starting. Give him the chance to prove that. 

it's all about roster construction for me.

if a team has 8 sp options and a shit bullpen with no closer, then yeah, there are likely rumblings of making one of the guys a closer.  plenty of successful starters ended up in the pen if that's what the team needed.

we have 6 sp.  if we package 2 for a bat, then sure, we can have that conversation.

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it's all about roster construction for me.

if a team has 8 sp options and a shit bullpen with no closer, then yeah, there are likely rumblings of making one of the guys a closer.  plenty of successful starters ended up in the pen if that's what the team needed.

we have 6 sp.  if we package 2 for a bat, then sure, we can have that conversation.

You don't package two for a bat until you know if you have 8 decent SP or 6 decent starting pitchers.  It's worth figuring out imo.  It's not like you wouldn't still have a really good bullpen without him.  Hell- we just lost the CY Young winner from last year and nobody gives a shit b/c he seems superflous.  If that's true of JV as your hammer opening day starter then that's also true of Abreu.  He didn't pitch leverage innings last year until September unless someone was hurt, right?  We get along fine either way.  Be greedy.  Greed is good. 

[henrygandorf 29174]

if we're being greedy then i would have abreu be our 4-9 outs guy.  i've only been asking for one for 3 years now.

[tx 3 putt 76296]

All this talk has me pretty damn exited for this season to start 

[tx 3 putt 76296]

 

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

if we're being greedy then i would have abreu be our 4-9 outs guy.  i've only been asking for one for 3 years now.

If you had him stretched out to starter length during the season that makes him a perfect candidate to be a 4-9 out guy in the playoffs.  Hunter Brown too, unless he's every bit as awesome as I think he will be. 

Playoffs: Framber, Javier, LMJ, Garcia

4-9 out guys- Brown & Abreu

Back end of bullpen- Presley, Montero, Neris.  You might not ever need Neris.  Framber & Javier- 7 each turn over to Montero; LMJ & Garcia- 5 each- 9 outs for Brown and Abreau, right to Presley.  

Left with their finger up their ass seeing no postseason time- Stanek, Martinez, Urqidy, Neris, Maton (ha.  Haha.  hahahahaha), Dusty's LHR crush of the day.   

52 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

All this talk has me pretty damn exited for this season to start 

WE are close. Pitchers and catchers report Thursday. 

[henrygandorf 29174]

43 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Hunter Brown too, unless he's every bit as awesome as I think he will be. 

confused why you would want the al cy young runner-up* to be in the bullpen, but you do you.

 

 

*javier

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

confused why you would want the al cy young runner-up* to be in the bullpen, but you do you.

 

 

*javier

Hunter would be the 4-9 out guy in the playoffs unless he's so awesome that he's better than our other guys in the top 5 of the CY Young race.  Then he would of course start.  

But, it's going to be really hard for anyone to get playoff innings with Framber and Javier being so good and then Forest Whitley throwing CG shutouts all around the league.  Tough problem to have. 

[Guadaloopy 10917]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Slacking... there's no 2022 on the World Champions sign on the H-Star. 

[TonyTexas 10481]

It’s going to be interesting to see how Garcia handles the stricter balk enforcement along with the new pitch clock rules . It appears he’s going to have to significantly revamp his delivery. 

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by TonyTexas

[Rimbo 25766]

21 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

It’s going to be interesting to see how Garcia handles the stricter balk enforcement along with the new pitch clock rules . It appears he’s going to have to significantly revamp his delivery. 

 

Balk Rules

1. You can't just be up there and just doin' a balk like that.
   1. A balk is when you
   2. Okay well listen. A balk is when you balk the
   3. Let me start over
      1. The pitcher is not allowed to do a motion to the, uh, batter, that prohibits the batter from doing, you know, just trying to hit the ball. You can't do that.
      2. Once the pitcher is in the stretch, he can't be over here and say to the runner, like, "I'm gonna get ya! I'm gonna tag you out! You better watch your butt!" and then just be like he didn't even do that.
         1. Like, if you're about to pitch and then don't pitch, you have to still pitch. You cannot not pitch. Does that make any sense?
         2. You gotta be, throwing motion of the ball, and then, until you just throw it.
            1. Okay, well, you can have the ball up here, like this, but then there's the balk you gotta think about.
            2. Fairuza Balk hasn't been in any movies in forever. I hope she wasn't typecast as that racist lady in American History X.
               1. Oh wait, she was in The Waterboy too! That would be even worse.
               2. "get in mah bellah" -- Adam Water, "The Waterboy." Haha, classic...
         3. Okay seriously though. A balk is when the pitcher makes a movement that, as determined by, when you do a move involving the baseball and field of
2. Do not do a balk please.

[mrhorn 1376]

Getting it ready for the start of the season. I’ve had this in my to do list for a while. Last season made it a reality. Paint and lights are next.

[tx 3 putt 76296]

That’s going to make a hell of a tramp stamp !

[runthebone 7931]

1 hour ago, mrhorn said:

Getting it ready for the start of the season. I’ve had this in my to do list for a while. Last season made it a reality. Paint and lights are next.

 

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

That’s going to make a hell of a tramp stamp !

Pretty sure that's a Lite Brite

[tx 3 putt 76296]

You 100% extend framber before the season. If he locks it down again; his price will not go up 

 

[Hank Chinaski 6310]

12 hours ago, Rimbo said:

Balk Rules

1. You can't just be up there and just doin' a balk like that.
   1. A balk is when you
   2. Okay well listen. A balk is when you balk the
   3. Let me start over
      1. The pitcher is not allowed to do a motion to the, uh, batter, that prohibits the batter from doing, you know, just trying to hit the ball. You can't do that.
      2. Once the pitcher is in the stretch, he can't be over here and say to the runner, like, "I'm gonna get ya! I'm gonna tag you out! You better watch your butt!" and then just be like he didn't even do that.
         1. Like, if you're about to pitch and then don't pitch, you have to still pitch. You cannot not pitch. Does that make any sense?
         2. You gotta be, throwing motion of the ball, and then, until you just throw it.
            1. Okay, well, you can have the ball up here, like this, but then there's the balk you gotta think about.
            2. Fairuza Balk hasn't been in any movies in forever. I hope she wasn't typecast as that racist lady in American History X.
               1. Oh wait, she was in The Waterboy too! That would be even worse.
               2. "get in mah bellah" -- Adam Water, "The Waterboy." Haha, classic...
         3. Okay seriously though. A balk is when the pitcher makes a movement that, as determined by, when you do a move involving the baseball and field of
2. Do not do a balk please.

I’ve been watching baseball for 40 years and I still don’t completely understand what the fuck a balk is. I kinda do, but not really.

[Guadaloopy 10917]

I want to read Drellich's book, but I don't want to put money in his pocket.  Guess I'll go old school and get a library card. 

[tx 3 putt 76296]

37 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

You 100% extend framber before the season. If he locks it down again; his price will not go up 

 

*will only go up 

[Mo Horn 8807]

@Jshep34 is this Lil Shep?

 

[Scraps 13538]

Thats lil luis bruh

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

13 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

It’s going to be interesting to see how Garcia handles the stricter balk enforcement along with the new pitch clock rules . It appears he’s going to have to significantly revamp his delivery. 

I'd just tell him not to allow baserunners so it won't be an issue, but I'm not Dusty. 

[henrygandorf 29174]

1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I’ve been watching baseball for 40 years and I still don’t completely understand what the fuck a balk is. I kinda do, but not really.

a balk is like pornography.  i know it when i see it.

[henrygandorf 29174]

Quote

FRANKIE MONTAS SP, NEW YORK YANKEES

Frankie Montas will undergo shoulder surgery on Feb. 21, the Yankees announced Wednesday.

That escalated quickly. “Best case, he would be back late in the season,” manager Aaron Boone said. Montas started having shoulder problems before the Yankees traded for him last summer, but nothing worse than inflammation was revealed then. Obviously, things turned quite a bit more serious since. With Montas absent, Domingo Germán is the clear favorite to serve as the Yankees' fifth starter, though he might have to withstand a challenge from Clarke Schmidt this spring.

Quote

JACOB DEGROM SP, TEXAS RANGERS

Jacob deGrom has some soreness in his left side and pushed back his throwing session from today until Thursday.

So it begins. The Rangers said pushing the session back a day was also about some cold and wet conditions today. Obviously, the team thinks everything is fine if he's still planning to throw tomorrow. However, when it comes to deGrom, everything will be monitored very closely.

busy morning.

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

David Schoenfeld on the Astros off-season. I think he’s currently ESPN’s best baseball writer. Certainly always imminently fair and respectful to the Astros. 
 

Additions: 1B Jose Abreu (re-signed OF Michael Brantley and RHP Rafael Montero)

Departures: RHP Justin Verlander, 1B Yuli Gurriel, UT Aledmys Diaz, 1B Trey Mancini

The biggest mistake most World Series champions make is to simply bring everyone back and expect the same results. That's mostly what the Astros did in an offseason spent without a general manager after owner Jim Crane parted ways with James Click in early November and didn't hire Dana Brown until late January. The Astros made an upgrade at first base with Abreu, who had an interesting season with the White Sox: less power than ever (15 home runs) but a higher average with fewer strikeouts. I'm skeptical about how the three-year deal plays out at Abreu's age, but it should work for 2023. They still have enviable rotation and bullpen depth, but you don't just replace a Cy Young winner who went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. The lineup is now also counting on four players in their 30s in Abreu (36), Brantley (36), Martin Maldonado (36) and Jose Altuve (33). Signing Cristian Javier to a five-year extension that runs through 2027 helps boost the overall offseason grade.

Grade: C+

[Jshep34 2303]

[mention=537]Jshep34[/mention] is this Lil Shep?
 

Nope not him.

[uoftorange 1386]

26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

David Schoenfeld on the Astros off-season. I think he’s currently ESPN’s best baseball writer. Certainly always imminently fair and respectful to the Astros. 

True, I do think he mailed that analysis in though.  There were only two places that the Astros could really upgrade and they did one of them with a big splash.  

I'd say it's a B, but C+ is fine given the criteria he is using.  He used the GM thing as a negative I believe to get to that grade, and I view it as a significant positive, so that's probably the gap.  To get an A they would have had to swing Sean Murphy also or the like as well as maybe another move for a more dynamic utility guy.  

I personally don't view the Astros offseason as just doing what has failed for other teams.  We are clearly built for sustainable runs, and don't have to go balls to the wall every off season.  Still, I agree that Schoenfeld has his own POV and I have mine.  Both are opinions.  I respect his while disagreeing on the surface

[hornmpa96 2598]

Front Office Grades should be based on putting the team in a position to compete for the title. Just because most of that work happened in prior years shouldn’t impact the grade. The Astros improved at 1B and are still the favorite to win the AL.

Grade: A