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2023 Official Astros World Champs Offseason Thread

tx 3 putt

By tx 3 putt
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rvm96

rvm96 1643

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Ronel Blanco might be the next big thing. Struck out the side in his 1 inning today. In the Dominican winter league, he had 19 appearances, 20.2 IP, 27 SO, 0.00 ERA and a WHIP of 0.58. I wonder what he’s found at the age of 29. 

Wasn't he just as good last winter league?

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tx 3 putt
tx 3 putt

You wanted us. You got us.  You got your asses beat !   Let's do it again in 2023     

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

love these articles and comments from the mlb media about marring a world series or how the baseball world will be critical of the astros for this move. get. the. fuck. out. with. that. nonsense.

MaybeACoordinator
MaybeACoordinator

Going through old pics because of the death of my grandmother / mom and came across this -- 1996, my son's first Astros game.

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10759

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

These new rules give umps too much power and say in the game. They already have a huge impact, this only amps it up. 

Pitch clock calls are not judgment calls. You’re either on time or you’re not. I’m more concerned about the tighter balk enforcement. Those can be a mystery. 

Edited by TonyTexas
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Gourmand

Gourmand 7778

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

I went to some.minor league games last year that had a pitch clock.  I enjoyed it.  

Same, and honestly it was hardly even noticeable except every once in a while when I looked around and saw the unobtrusive digital clock counting down from :25. 

Look, I'm as old school as most everyone else and I'm firmly in the camp of "baseball is fine as it is, stop whining?" but the twitter/redditverse losing its mind over the implementation of this new rule in the first games of spring training tells me that few fans paid close attention at all to minor league games last year. Pitchers need to hurry up and pitch, batters need to stop fucking around with their batting gloves and wrist guards and step into the box. I don't recall any at bats in the games I watched last year that were affected by pitch clock violations (I'm sure there were some) but I definitely noticed a consistent and improved pace of play between pitchers and hitters. Umps are not going to decide big moments of games on these violations, but they are going to set a tone early to let players know they need to be aware of and honor the pitch clock rule. 

It's a welcome change imo. 

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19594

Posted
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2 hours ago, kevwun said:

You barely notice the clock at minor league games.  It won’t be an issue before the all star break.

Yep. I offered to take all bets that there will be about 1 pitch clock violation per team per week by the time May ends. It’s really a silly fear. This thing is going to go off without a hitch and it’s going to go off without a hitch very soon (like affect Regular Season games almost not at all). And it is going to be glorious if regular season games click on st 2:30 and 2:40 like spring training games are. 
fans pining for non action and demanding more of it is just peak baseball silliness. The game was always played at this pace or faster up until the mid 90’s or so. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19594

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Cross posting from another site after the Machado deal and what it means to salaries heading into this new world where RSN's are going bankrupt...

 

I think the Padres (especially with the RSN's going BK) have just fundamentally misread the market.  If MLB has to distribute carriage through their site and streaming and baseball becomes a subscription model almost every team is going to take a huge economic hickey.   I cant imagine the price point on an Astros sub being more than $100.00 a year for an individual team.  How many people they think going to pay that on top of their other cable bills and subscription services?  40K?  50k? 100K?  There are a shitload of Astros fans I know that are pretty serious about being Astros fans that won't switch to Direct TV to get them.  Will they do a separate $100 a year bill?  Maybe?  But I sort of don't think so.  So, lets say you get 100k people to pay you $100.00 a year.  That's all of 10M  And that's before you even get into cost to produce the game.  Can they get a million people around Houston to pay them $100 a year or 10 a month or something?  I'm highly skeptical.  Even if they could you are talking what 100M in gross?   Take out all the production costs (which teams don't currently pay and what do you have left? I don't know. But I suspect those salaries and carmeras and tech's and engineers and guys working in the truck add up to a decent amount of money.  
 
Team distributing itself (essentially through MLB) would get to keep commercial costs.  Typically that runs on local TV somewhere around $5-10 per 1,000 viewers.  Call it 100k views during a normal game and that makes every 30 second commercial worth about $500.00 per spot on the low end and $1,000 per spot on the high end.  Figure on about 40 or 50 available spots during the game plus pre and post game and you are talking about something like $50,000 per game game at the upper level I'd think.  So- $10M or so in commercial costs?  My suspicion is that MLB wouldn't even cover production costs with the advertising, but lets say they did- that makes it something like needing 700,000 paid subscribers to make up for the $70M they are currently getting from AT&T sports net.  Good luck. I don't see that happening.  And the Astros are at the top of the success cycle. How manly people in Pittsburg want to fork out any money to watch on a sub service?  
 
Yeah- this seems like a seismic shock that is going to make every deal passed out this winter look crazy.  
 
At the end of the day these guys are probably smarter than me- or at least they know more and have already identified the greater fool that's going to pay them for linear distribution and the sub is all add on and they will be ok.  
 
But, in the world where people cord cut every content producer is going to get hammered (and there's going to be a lot less content) as everything becomes niche like.  

Where are my assumptions wrong?  Where do the numbers need to be tightened up on revenue in or cost out?  This is all very preliminary back of the envelope math and hell- I'm open to the idea I could be off by a factor of 2 or 3
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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11818

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1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

Sparky : kind of funny how the Astros minor league is rated so low and they keep pumping out top prospects 

 

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

I don’t think it’s an Astros bias thing. I think it’s a well Framber only signed for 10k and he’s 20 thing. 
 

The scouting services love young players with huge signing bonuses drafted early. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Cross posting from another site after the Machado deal and what it means to salaries heading into this new world where RSN's are going bankrupt...

 

I think the Padres (especially with the RSN's going BK) have just fundamentally misread the market.  If MLB has to distribute carriage through their site and streaming and baseball becomes a subscription model almost every team is going to take a huge economic hickey.   I cant imagine the price point on an Astros sub being more than $100.00 a year for an individual team.  How many people they think going to pay that on top of their other cable bills and subscription services?  40K?  50k? 100K?  There are a shitload of Astros fans I know that are pretty serious about being Astros fans that won't switch to Direct TV to get them.  Will they do a separate $100 a year bill?  Maybe?  But I sort of don't think so.  So, lets say you get 100k people to pay you $100.00 a year.  That's all of 10M  And that's before you even get into cost to produce the game.  Can they get a million people around Houston to pay them $100 a year or 10 a month or something?  I'm highly skeptical.  Even if they could you are talking what 100M in gross?   Take out all the production costs (which teams don't currently pay and what do you have left? I don't know. But I suspect those salaries and carmeras and tech's and engineers and guys working in the truck add up to a decent amount of money.  
 
Team distributing itself (essentially through MLB) would get to keep commercial costs.  Typically that runs on local TV somewhere around $5-10 per 1,000 viewers.  Call it 100k views during a normal game and that makes every 30 second commercial worth about $500.00 per spot on the low end and $1,000 per spot on the high end.  Figure on about 40 or 50 available spots during the game plus pre and post game and you are talking about something like $50,000 per game game at the upper level I'd think.  So- $10M or so in commercial costs?  My suspicion is that MLB wouldn't even cover production costs with the advertising, but lets say they did- that makes it something like needing 700,000 paid subscribers to make up for the $70M they are currently getting from AT&T sports net.  Good luck. I don't see that happening.  And the Astros are at the top of the success cycle. How manly people in Pittsburg want to fork out any money to watch on a sub service?  
 
Yeah- this seems like a seismic shock that is going to make every deal passed out this winter look crazy.  
 
At the end of the day these guys are probably smarter than me- or at least they know more and have already identified the greater fool that's going to pay them for linear distribution and the sub is all add on and they will be ok.  
 
But, in the world where people cord cut every content producer is going to get hammered (and there's going to be a lot less content) as everything becomes niche like.  

Where are my assumptions wrong?  Where do the numbers need to be tightened up on revenue in or cost out?  This is all very preliminary back of the envelope math and hell- I'm open to the idea I could be off by a factor of 2 or 3

There is ad revenue in addition to subscription fees.  The games aren’t shown commercial free on the RSNs and they won’t be on the new model.  I don’t know how much money that will bring in but it will be significant.

Sports programming was a pillar of cable tv revenues and so it is a viable business.  Whether it comes in under or over in the new model I don’t know but I doubt it will be a major hit for the teams over the long haul.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19594

Posted
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20 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

There is ad revenue in addition to subscription fees.  The games aren’t shown commercial free on the RSNs and they won’t be on the new model.  I don’t know how much money that will bring in but it will be significant.

Sports programming was a pillar of cable tv revenues and so it is a viable business.  Whether it comes in under or over in the new model I don’t know but I doubt it will be a major hit for the teams over the long haul.

I talked about he asked revenue in paragraph 3… it’s not as much as you’d think based upon what I read as 5-10 bucks per 1000 views on your local cable tv. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19594

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3 minutes ago, WBT said:

Existing mlb.tv can't be bringing in much in ad revenue or they wouldn't just repeat the same 4 all season, LHN-style.  And a significant amount of between inning time is just dedicated to highlights too.

Yep. It’s not a big number and if it has to go all to mlb.com getting on you have to talk about free falling revenue. I mean- if the mlb thing is an add on to what they were getting paid by the distributors it’s awesome. As a replacement it’s heinous. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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14 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I talked about he asked revenue in paragraph 3… it’s not as much as you’d think based upon what I read as 5-10 bucks per 1000 views on your local cable tv. 

Well, pardon me if I assume the owners and their front office execs have a little bit more information and forecasting expertise than you do.  I do not think teams would be doling out $300M deals like hotcakes if they thought there was any impending revenue collapse.  If anything, the spending spree would indicate the teams expect the opposite.  That said if I were making predictions, I would guess there will be a 1-2 year hiccup while things get sorted, but after that TV rights revenues would be at or above RSN levels.  There’s efficiencies to be gained by the league managing them directly and presenting them as a standalone product.

I think the bigger issue is the revenue disparity among the teams and the indications that there may be more revenue sharing coking, to the point that it would negatively impact the 2nd tier orgs like Houston.

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The Dog

The Dog 44856

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Posted

I always take spring training performances with a grain of salt - especially if it's an established starter struggling when they are likely working on something and want to try it out in a game situation.

Case in point - in 2018 Charlie Morton seemed like he couldn't get anyone out in preseason then he went on and had the best year of his career (to that point - he was even better in 2019 with the Rays). 

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