2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

i can't believe actual covid deaths have much to do with anything.  1, everything is gerrymandered so you are only talking about deaths in very specific areas potentially having effects, and 2, recall that early deaths were all urban and it was only until later that the deaths became rural, so assumptions about party affiliation should probably be tempered a bit.

[gmr548 16,580]

So, looks like Senate will be 50/50 again (GA/AZ dem, WI/NV rep), no change, and Republicans pick up slightly and take a slight majority in the House. Does that look like what everyone else is seeing?
That's probably the best possible outcome for the markets and economy from what I was reading today about historical data on mixed congress and stock market and economy. Also, should be a good moral victory in that it bucked the historical trend of the incumbent party hemorrhaging seats to the minority challenging party in midterms. A referendum against the minority challenging party, even.

I’d not speak on NV or GA with much confidence. Not enough data on the former and the latter is going to a runoff. AZ does look like it should be a hold but not over. 50/50 is probably middle of the bell curve.

[Gap03 3,308]

2 minutes ago, MeerkatBong said:

Thank you. When do we think NV will be known? Today? Days? Weeks? At least last night CNN was running with the "we might not have results for weeks"

Latest from the guy that knows NV:

I think they normally finish counting toward the end of the week because they have to wait for last minute mail-in ballots.

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1,549]

the future of the nation hinges on the dummy running back. 

[SilasCoade 2,622]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The dildo of consequence rarely arrives lubed.

Surly motto candidate.

[Goredho 17,408]

22 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

He should do it, and it should be this hoodie.

[Pato del Muerto 52,526]

How many days does NV allow to receive mail in votes?

[Francisco 2.0 32,395]

 

 

 

[BrickHorn 18,237]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i can't believe actual covid deaths have much to do with anything.  1, everything is gerrymandered so you are only talking about deaths in very specific areas potentially having effects, and 2, recall that early deaths were all urban and it was only until later that the deaths became rural, so assumptions about party affiliation should probably be tempered a bit.

We don’t have to rely on logic to figure this one out. A recent study showed that excess deaths during the pandemic were higher for Republicans compared to Democrats. 

[tx 3 putt 77,073]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

[atomheartbevo 89,732]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The GOP Civil War will need to get Trump to privately concede to DeSantis.

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Even if big money donors are moving to DeSantis, there are still many GOP politicians that will not want to risk pissing off Trump if he's not agreeing to being pushed to the side.

I feel like the GOP civil war formally started when Trump setup his PACs to siphon off money from the GOP, and maybe we are seeing the opening skirmishes play out on social media, message boards, etc, where people are venting about how much Trump has cost them over 2018, 2020, and 2022.

I think there are Republicans politicians who will risk pissing him off, because they want the BMDs backing them, and Trump supporting somebody is not a guarantee of success (and can even be a liability).

Trump won’t give in without a fight, because the money is just too easy. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Gap03 3,308]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How many days does NV allow to receive mail in votes?

4 days to receive mail in votes (11/12), 2 more days for voters to fix signature issues (11/14).

Quote

Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day (Nov. 😎 and received by election officials within the next four days are counted toward election results. The last day for mail ballots to be received and counted by county election officials is Saturday, Nov. 12.  Voters have until Monday, Nov. 14, to address any issues with signatures on their mail-in ballots. 

All counting must be completed 10 days after the election, or by Nov. 18.

2022 Election Live Blog: Amodei wins; Judge denies effort to keep polls open late; Clark, Washoe delay count of mail ballots – The Nevada Independent

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

We don’t have to rely on logic to figure this one out. A recent study showed that excess deaths during the pandemic were higher for Republicans compared to Democrats. 

but this is what the conclusion is:

 

The study in Health Affairs made similar conclusions. Majority Republican counties “experienced 72.9 additional deaths per 100,000 people relative to majority Democratic counties during the study period” ending in October 2021, it maintained.

 

those raw numbers are so small compared to voting totals.  If half of those 100,000 vote, you might be talking about 36 voters additionally dying there.  And what is the breakdown of R-D among those voters?  3-1?  so 27 R and 9 D votes died?  A net of 18 out of 50,000 votes?  

[Huckleberry 33,002]

38 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it's a reasonable position that you need both tension and some level of friction in the gears of government.  single party rule is the way of african and eastern euro crazies.

Sure, but he said conservative policy. What conservative policy actually exists right now? 

[HenryJames 66,125]

 

[David Dennison 18,923]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Sure, but he said conservative policy. What conservative policy actually exists right now? 

Tax cuts. Now and forever.

[Pato del Muerto 52,526]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I feel like the GOP civil war formally started when Trump setup his PACs to siphon off money from the GOP, and maybe we are seeing the opening skirmishes play out on social media, message boards, etc, where people are venting about how much Trump has cost them over 2018, 2020, and 2022.

I think there are Republicans politicians who will risk pissing him off, because they want the BMDs backing them, and Trump supporting somebody is not a guarantee of success (and can even be a liability).

Trump won’t give in without a fight, because the money is just too easy. 

The bmds actually give you their money to use for your election. All trump ever lets you have is his name, and you usually have to pay HIM to get that. 
 

so if money is the driver, it should be an easy decision. 
 

the novel thing is that he has total control of a significant piece of their voters, and assuming that they will line up to vote R not only not for him, but for those that rejected him, is quite the game. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[tx 3 putt 77,073]

50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Unless Trump is on the ballot, I don’t think they’ll be able to get the Trumpanzees out to vote in the numbers they need, and he’ll, even with Trump on the ballot, they couldn’t do it.   

Back in 2008 (against an actual Vietnam war hero) and 2012, we elected a Black, Muslim, atheist, socialist, Marxist, communist, Democratic community organizer living in Chicago, born in Kenya, raised in Indonesia and then Hawaii, by the name of Barrack Hussein Obama.

More than a few of the people who helped Trump win simply didn’t give enough of a shit in 2008 and 2012 to vote, and then when he was on the ballot again in ‘20, he helped motivate Dems to get out.

It’ll be DeSantis.  Cruz, Abbott, etc. all look pretty weak compared to him - more than a few people saw that Abbott was trying to pretend to be the kind of governor that DeSantis is.

 

trump and his followers are going to get mad and take their ball home. they're sitting out to show R's that trump is their false idol 

[SquishMitten 10,415]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

but this is what the conclusion is:

 

The study in Health Affairs made similar conclusions. Majority Republican counties “experienced 72.9 additional deaths per 100,000 people relative to majority Democratic counties during the study period” ending in October 2021, it maintained.

 

those raw numbers are so small compared to voting totals.  If half of those 100,000 vote, you might be talking about 36 voters additionally dying there.  And what is the breakdown of R-D among those voters?  3-1?  so 27 R and 9 D votes died?  A net of 18 out of 50,000 votes?  

Not disagreeing with you at all on the raw numbers, and there's probably no way to ever determine this, but I would bet the numbers aren't as clean cut as that. I think the more hardcore someone was about being anti-vax/anti-mask, the more politically motivated they were. In other words, amongst the rural suicide-by-Covid-R deaths, I'd bet they voted in higher numbers than the urban D deaths that were more akin to collateral damage.

[Francisco 2.0 32,395]

Wisconsin has same-day voter registration.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Huckleberry 33,002]

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Tax cuts. Now and forever.

Cutting taxes is a Republican position. Without spending decreases to match in order to create a balanced budget that is not, in and of itself, a conservative policy position. 

[Vito Andolini 9,126]

15 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

4 days to receive mail in votes (11/12), 2 more days for voters to fix signature issues (11/14).

 

As noted in the text of the article you quoted, they have until 11/18 to complete the counting, so if it’s neck and neck (and it appears to be so), we may not get a Nevada Senate result for 9 more days.

[WhatTheBuck 28,788]

53 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

What conservative policy positions do you think the current Republican Party would work to implement?

“We’re going to fix inflation, lower crime rates, and solve the crisis at the southern border!”

”How are you going to do that?”

“We’re going to fix inflation, lower crime rates, and solve the crisis at the southern border!”

[RomaVicta 29,931]

3 hours ago, Homercles said:

We teach our children it’s ok to like who you like, that it’s ok for people to marry other boys/girls as they see fit, and to love people for their character not their appearance.  

What kind of bullshit is this, Mr. Beta P. Woke? This is half-assed. You're teaching math where there's only addition with no subtraction, you likely groomer.

You're all, it's okay for this and that. That's only half of it. That's all just candy-ass appeasement. Who is going to teach them who to hate? You're depriving your children of one of life's great addictive pleasures: rage!!!!!!

They'll be destroyed by illusory enemies and have none of that fine zero-sum game of building self-esteem!

Thanks for keeping America from greatness, again.

[SilasCoade 2,622]

3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

What kind of bullshit is this, Mr. Beta P. Woke? This is half-assed. You're teaching math where there's only addition with no subtraction, you likely groomer.

You're all, it's okay for this and that. That's only half of it. That's all just candy-ass appeasement. Who is going to teach them who to hate? You're depriving your children of one of life's great addictive pleasures: rage!!!!!!

They'll be destroyed by illusory enemies and have none of that fine zero-sum game of building self-esteem!

Thanks for keeping America from greatness, again.

I'm sorry, did Oklahoma disappear from the Earth while I was asleep or something? You don't have to teach kids to breathe or hate OU, man, it just comes naturally, as God intended.

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

 

[David Dennison 18,923]

8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Cutting taxes is a Republican position. Without spending decreases to match in order to create a balanced budget that is not, in and of itself, a conservative policy position. 

Well, they know spending decreases are politically untenable, so they stick with tax cuts.

 

[Chult86 335]

What I don't understand, is that my iPhone has more of my personal data and history than I probably can remember myself. It also is unable to be unlocked by the FBI without Apple's help. How in the world, in 2022, am I not able to vote through my phone using some sort of federal app?

[Mo Horn 8,849]

1 minute ago, Chult86 said:

What I don't understand, is that my iPhone has more of my personal data and history than I probably can remember myself. It also is unable to be unlocked by the FBI without Apple's help. How in the world, in 2022, am I not able to vote through my phone using some sort of federal app?

1000% this

[SilasCoade 2,622]

Just now, Chult86 said:

What I don't understand, is that my iPhone has more of my personal data and history than I probably can remember myself. It also is unable to be unlocked by the FBI without Apple's help. How in the world, in 2022, am I not able to vote through my phone using some sort of federal app?

Your device and the app on your device are not the weak links in any secure transaction. The concern is for potential shenanigans involving any servers between you and vote counting server as well as the feds storing that identifiable information including how you voted in a way that could be 1) vulnerable to attack, and 2) intentionally abused by authoritarian govt forces to harm political dissidents.

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

2 minutes ago, Chult86 said:

What I don't understand, is that my iPhone has more of my personal data and history than I probably can remember myself. It also is unable to be unlocked by the FBI without Apple's help. How in the world, in 2022, am I not able to vote through my phone using some sort of federal app?

Because the GOP does better when fewer people vote. 

 

[RomaVicta 29,931]

3 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I think the message was pretty clear that Trump is now a party negative. Some may not understand that yet, but I think the message was clear.

From what I'm reading as a I progress through this thread (a lot of smart people commenting here. Compliments), the GOPs are in no way rejecting Trumpism which is just their decades long hate mongering with the quiet parts said out loud. They want the reins to their hate engine back.

In my usually wrong opinion about the future, I still think they're facing a real problem separating from Trump. The GЯP embraces Trump policy, such as it is, but they can't have that cake and eat it by turning on Trump. Disantis and (ugh) Abbott are Trump beards. They can't say/imply that they're like Trump without bending the knee.

Once Trump says you've betrayed him, the rabid mob he leads will turn on you. 

Having written this, it all seems rather obvious. I'll post it anyway. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

re:phones, one thing you've got to be careful with when coming up with new ways to vote is disparate impacts.  here, you are saying that affluent people can now vote easily, poor cannot.  

[Gengs1 2,583]

1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

Because the GOP does better when fewer people vote. 

 

I wish they had numbers by weight and bmi as well, you know for shit and giggles 

[Francisco 2.0 32,395]

9 minutes ago, Chult86 said:

What I don't understand, is that my iPhone has more of my personal data and history than I probably can remember myself. It also is unable to be unlocked by the FBI without Apple's help. How in the world, in 2022, am I not able to vote through my phone using some sort of federal app?

 

[GOP]Duh.  Obamaphones.  Remember those?  We can't possibly allow that to happen.[/GOP]

 

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Francisco 2.0

[Pato del Muerto 52,526]

Mobile device voting would increase  the youth vote. Which is a bad thing for some people. 
the same people that only want to allow voting during business hours of a single weekday.  

Edited November 9, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[DDD Dad 14,339]

1 minute ago, Gengs1 said:

I wish they had numbers by weight and bmi as well, you know for shit and giggles 

You already know the answer to this.

[RomaVicta 29,931]

3 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Man, conditions really couldn't be worse for Democrats with the economy and Biden's popularity and yet they didn't get crushed.

And things seem to be shaping up for (more) chaos for Republicans with the DeSantis mandate and the unmanageable House.

I think I am kinda gruntled by all this.

Me, too. Could it be that a large number of Dem voters see the crucial issue is saving the republic? If so, Biden's two speeches can be marked as achievements for Joe.

Fuck the GOP.

[Gatorubet 30,246]

50 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This is something that is going to continue to plague GOP politics until they can move on from anti-vax sentiment.  There's emerging evidence they also aren't getting the flu shot. 

Older GOP voters are not protected from new flu strains?

thatsashamegif

[wildcat09 29,355]

*Guys jerking it to the fappening*

"Cell phones are definitely secure enough for everyone to vote from an app!"

[Firemans4Horn 18,107]

Any good places for updates on AZ senate and Gov?

[Js1 85,416]

Just now, Firemans4Horn said:

Any good places for updates on AZ senate and Gov?

Garrett Archer on Twitter.  He's the Jon Ralston of AZ. 

[Pig Bellmont 8,719]

 

[elfenix 34,313]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

You’re trying to make sense of an idiotic comment by the same guy who predicted Kevin Durant would bust in the NBA because he can’t bench press very much. 

top response to every one of his tweets should be that

[Js1 85,416]

Just now, Pig Bellmont said:

 

220-215 would be HILARIOUS.  But I caution those CA seats, because the mail is slowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww in CA.  I remember in 2018 the red mirage in CA made everyone lose their shit and we flipped a ton of seats after a week/two weeks.

[Js1 85,416]

Just happy some of my favorite House members, who happen to be black women (the backbone of the party), survived their races.

Lucy McBath - probably a future Dem candidate statewide in GA
Jahana Hayes - my pick for Blumenthal's seat in CT when he's done (he's 76 and just won another term)
Lauren Underwood - my pick for Durbin's seat when he is done in IL

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

lulz at all the asses of retards McCarthy is going to have to kiss to get anything done  

 

[TexArcher 37,979]

42 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Sure, but he said conservative policy. What conservative policy actually exists right now? 

Exactly.  Pretty sure that Conservatism died with John McCain.

[sidis 9,832]

9 hours ago, sidis said:

She’s getting absolutely murdered in every single county relative to trump and her own performance in 2020. But She has an estimated 13k votes to come in from mesa and  Frisch probably only has 4k. That said, Pueblo is getting kind of interesting.  If it keeps breaking as it has so far, might be enough to offset that by just enough. 

I might slightly back off some of my certitude earlier. Maybe a bit closer than I previously thought but I’d still lean the idiot for now. 

this is starting to get super interesting.

mesa county is mostly in.  fewer than 6k votes left to count there where boebert is winning 57%-43%.   that is going to close the gap quite a bit in frisch's 3,500 vote lead and probably draw them either level or a slight boebert lead when you add in all the other shrapnel counties that still have a few hundred votes here and there.

however, the big fish that is still tbd is pueblo county.  only 71% of the vote (which represents about 50k votes) is in there and it is currently breaking 55-45 frisch.  if there are really still 20k votes to count there, then it just depends on whether or not the voting order in the county in some way has currently given us a frisch-bias thus far.  if he were to hold the division of votes in pueblo county that have already come in, he will win.  but we simply don't know how that will go.  gonna be a photo finish.  but regardless, i think boebert's days are numbered.  she got crushed relative to 2020...her constituents do not appear to like her.

 

here is the math on the remaining votes.

Edited November 9, 2022 by sidis

[elfenix 34,313]

35 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Cutting taxes is a Republican position. Without spending decreases to match in order to create a balanced budget that is not, in and of itself, a conservative policy position.