2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[C-Man 27254]

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Counterpoint: Ron is not aggy.

Counter-counterpoint: Florida is aggy

 

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

lot of R's reported to have called to concede.  looks like no wide scale adoption of trump's yell fraud if i lose strategy

Lake hasn't lost yet.

[Js1 85510]

 

 

[Js1 85510]

And as a PSA - Lakshya had one of the better forecasts and was very wary of the GOP polls muddling the narrative.

[chainsaw 9873]

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Counter-counterpoint: Florida is aggy

He's a harvard guy though

[elfenix 34331]

 

[Js1 85510]

With Sean Patrick Maloney losing in NY, the Hochulmander getting thrown out (fuck you Cuomo) and Zeldin running stronger really fucked over the Dems. 

The whole majority could have been lost in NY alone. I do believe those seats are flipping back to the Dems in a presidential year though.  

[Incredulity 11682]

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

I mean it won't be much more casual than Sinema.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

I wish there was actual free press in Russia.  I'd love to see Putin's reaction.  Guarantee his spring plans rested on substantial cutting in funding for Ukraine.

[WhatTheBuck 28797]

6 minutes ago, sidis said:

this is starting to get super interesting.

mesa county is mostly in.  fewer than 6k votes left to count there where boebert is winning 57%-43%.   that is going to close the gap quite a bit in frisch's 3,500 vote lead and probably draw them either level or a slight boebert lead when you add in all the other shrapnel counties that still have a few hundred votes here and there.

however, the big fish that is still tbd is pueblo county.  only 71% of the vote (which represents about 50k votes) is in there and it is currently breaking 55-45 frisch.  if there are really still 20k votes to count there, then it just depends on whether or not the voting order in the county in some way has currently given us a frisch-bias thus far.  if he were to hold the division of votes in pueblo county that have already come in, he will win.  but we simply don't know how that will go.  gonna be a photo finish.  but regardless, i think boebert's days are numbered.  she got crushed relative to 2020...her constituents do not appear to like her.

 

here is the math on the remaining votes.

The outcome is already determined. I don’t see what’s interesting about where the count stands at any given moment until all the votes have been counted and the already decided outcome is revealed. 

[C-Man 27254]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

Wow, Cawthorn and now Boebert. Wonderful! Too bad MTG is still around. And Gaetz. Still, it's a start.

[Bullneck 19199]

59 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I feel like the GOP civil war formally started when Trump setup his PACs to siphon off money from the GOP, and maybe we are seeing the opening skirmishes play out on social media, message boards, etc, where people are venting about how much Trump has cost them over 2018, 2020, and 2022.

I think there are Republicans politicians who will risk pissing him off, because they want the BMDs backing them, and Trump supporting somebody is not a guarantee of success (and can even be a liability).

Trump won’t give in without a fight, because the money is just too easy. 

Garland will weigh in on this in a week or so.  Trump isn't going to be available for 2024

['stache 21836]

11 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

lulz at all the asses of retards McCarthy is going to have to kiss to get anything done  

 

I'm hoping my interpretation is correct, because I had a question about a 1 person majority. Pelosi would not be speaker anymore, so my first thought was that whoever wins speaker can just hold everything up the way McConnell did in the senate, and that might be the bigger problem. But if things do get through for a vote, are there any, at least one hopefully, who is open to voting with democrats, at least occasionally? I seriously hope so. Is this a possiblity this guy is saying? I'm just glad it looks like the Senate will remain blue so that judges can get through.

Edited November 9, 2022 by 'stache

[bluto 4940]

8 minutes ago, sidis said:

this is starting to get super interesting.

mesa county is mostly in.  fewer than 6k votes left to count there where boebert is winning 57%-43%.   that is going to close the gap quite a bit in frisch's 3,500 vote lead and probably draw them either level or a slight boebert lead when you add in all the other shrapnel counties that still have a few hundred votes here and there.

however, the big fish that is still tbd is pueblo county.  only 71% of the vote (which represents about 50k votes) is in there and it is currently breaking 55-45 frisch.  if there are really still 20k votes to count there, then it just depends on whether or not the voting order in the county in some way has currently given us a frisch-bias thus far.  if he were to hold the division of votes in pueblo county that have already come in, he will win.  but we simply don't know how that will go.  gonna be a photo finish.  but regardless, i think boebert's days are numbered.  she got crushed relative to 2020...her constituents do not appear to like her.

 

here is the math on the remaining votes.

She’s running weaker than 20 obviously but Pueblo was essentially a dead heat then. Trying not to get my hopes up yet

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just now, WhatTheBuck said:

The outcome is already determined. I don’t see what’s interesting about where the count stands at any given moment until all the votes have been counted and the already decided outcome is revealed. 

Shut up nerd. 

[Js1 85510]

Just now, 'stache said:

I'm hoping my interpretation is correct, because I had a question about a 1 person majority. Pelosi would not be speaker anymore, so my first thought was that whoever wins speaker can just hold everything up the way McConnell did in the senate, and that might be the bigger problem. But if things do get through for a vote, are there any, at least one hopefully, who is open to voting with democrats, at least occasionally? I seriously hope so. I'm just glad it looks like the Senate will remain blue so that judges can get through.

It may only take 5-10 Reps to throw a wrench in the whole majority.  Either the extreme or the moderates.

Once the dust settles, Dems should start finding out who they can reach out to in an attempt to put together some sort of moderate caucus to play kingmaker.  Dems like Jared Golden would be part of that. 

[Pig Bellmont 8719]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

But if things do get through for a vote, are there any, at least one hopefully, who is open to voting with democrats, at least occasionally?

[Neonmoon 38130]

 

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[MeerkatBong 115]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It may only take 5-10 Reps to throw a wrench in the whole majority.  Either the extreme or the moderates.

Once the dust settles, Dems should start finding out who they can reach out to in an attempt to put together some sort of moderate caucus to play kingmaker.  Dems like Jared Golden would be part of that. 

Also, apparently this favors the extreme R's (Freedom Caucus or wahtever they are called) as they can extort concessions from the rest of the R's with such a slim majority. It's the inverse of Manchin in Senate.

[RDCanecutter 26462]

11 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

"We can see the fraud in the machines."

Why yes. Yes you can. And I can see the worms in your brain.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

There will be no major legislation because its a R house and D senate and presidency unless it is genuinely bipartisan.  There will be reduced impetus to do crazy stuff like start impeaching willy nilly and investigating stupid shit because you've got to get the moderate Rs to agree to it.  The D senate means judges continue to be confirmed.  Everyone start sending high cholesterol foods c/o C. Thomas, S. Alito and hope for the best for two years.  This is a complete get out of jail card in my opinion.

[WhatTheBuck 28797]

48 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Cutting taxes is a Republican position. Without spending decreases to match in order to create a balanced budget that is not, in and of itself, a conservative policy position. 

Yeah, there’s nothing conservative about it. But it is thoroughly Republican. Cut taxes on the rich and big corporations, engage in massive deficit spending, and hope your voters never notice that the effects you promise will occur as a result never come to pass. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

LMAO

 

[Pato del Muerto 52558]

3 minutes ago, MeerkatBong said:

Also, apparently this favors the extreme R's (Freedom Caucus or wahtever they are called) as they can extort concessions from the rest of the R's with such a slim majority. It's the inverse of Manchin in Senate.

That works at both ends of the spectrum, so the moderate side could hold out as well if the mtgs of the house try to get too much, leading to nothing getting done or done or, in a dream world, debate and compromise. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

So I get why many are crowning him, but is it crazy to think DeSantis's Florida campaign will not work on a national level?  Florida is pretty uniquely positioned to capitalize on the current atmosphere in a way that I'm not sure will translate.  

DeTrumpis was made by Trump “hence the nickname”. He would be nothing without Trump. Some other guy who I don’t even remember was going to win the nomination in Florida without Trump stepping in. 

As much as we all hate Trump, he has an adolf Hitler like ability to connect with the bottom of the barrel in this country like nobody has ever seen before and it can’t be replicated. Lots of people spend their meager paychecks going all around the country to attend trump rallies. It is like their Woodstock or their hobby or something. These people will not support a geek like Desantis. He doesn’t have the charisma and the moxie that is required to pull it off like Trump has. He probably doesn’t have the energy level and the ability to keep those trashy folks so engaged and willing to crawl over glass to support the GOP like Trump was able to do.

With that said, I do think Detrumpis could have a “Beto effect” on some of the suburban women that Beto was able to flip in 2018. He looks nice and has a soft spoken demeanor, he doesn’t insult people, he doesn’t have that toxic personality that turns people off in the suburbs like Trump does.  At the end of the day, I think it would be a wash.  He would lose the trump base, but he would win some college educated suburban people back.

In addition, Republicans aren’t going to the GOP in droves. He can’t replicate that formula nationwide. Desantis has been helped considerably by state optics that are unique to Florida. Old people move to Florida in droves and are doing all they can to keep it red. People from South American countries are doing the same thing. There’s a huge difference between a Hispanic in Nevada / Arizona and a Cuban in Florida. They won’t be able to win over or convince Arizona or Nevada Hispanics with the “socialism” rhetoric and the “democrats will rape your babies in the street” crap that worked so well in Florida.

 

[Js1 85510]

On 11/6/2022 at 9:58 AM, Js1 said:

Me:

Environment - D+1

House - GOP wins the House, but the majority is less than 10 seats - too many open/new seats without incumbents that give GOP the House

Senate - Dems hold their seats but can’t win GA outright. Dems pickup PA, narrowly lose NC/WI. NC and WI both decided by less than 1%.  GA goes to a run-off because Warnock only hits 49.5%

Governor races - Dems pick up MD and MA; Dems keep PA, MI, WI, KS, NM, OR, NV and GOP keep AZ, TX, FL.  GA goes to a run off with Kemp at 49%

Texas statewide - Dems take one race, just barely. AG, probably 

Man other than Texas, this looks pretty spot on.

GOP house edge could be 5-10 seats, if they pick it up at all (come on California, bring it home) 
GA to runoff (almost nailed Warnock's %), Dems pick up PA - narrow losses in NC and WI.  Dems are the favorites in AZ and NV (no calls yet). 
Dems did indeed pick up MD and MA and kept PA, MI, WS, KS and NM so far.  TBD on OR and NV and AZ.  No runoff for GA (Kemp won outright).  GOP did keep TX and FL.

Around 5-6pm, I was like, "fuck I was too optimistic."  Nah, so far, I feel like I was pretty spot on. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

We fucking got this

Edited November 9, 2022 by Zonahorn

[Biff Tannen 45709]

14 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Good, Zinke sucks

[Js1 85510]

Just now, Zonahorn said:

We fucking got this

I trust you.  How do the House races look?  

['stache 21836]

Are there any sites that are easy to decipher in tracking only uncalled house races?

[Dr. Teeth 5845]

8 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

LMAO

 

254k people, a lot of them believers in an underground Democratic cult that rapes and drinks the blood of children, voted for him.  

[Pato del Muerto 52558]

As chaos descends on the signature comparison building. 

[Pato del Muerto 52558]

Colorado 4 is the eastern rural CD right?  That R cruised to victory at 60%. Tells you how disliked bobo is.   I can pretty much guarantee they drew up her district to also be 60/40 R and very safe. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Firemans4Horn 18118]

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I trust you.  How do the House races look?  

I think we got Schweikart. I’m not sure if OHAL makes it and Engel is going to be good 

[Js1 85510]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Colorado 4 is the eastern rural CD right?  That R cruised to victory at 60%. Tells you how disliked bobo is. 

Yeah CO-04 is basically everything east of Denver and CO Springs.  Piece of shit Ken Buck, R+13 seat.  2x Boobert's seat (R+7)

 

[Pato del Muerto 52558]

1 minute ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

Does Colorado require a majority to avoid a runoff, or most votes wins?  The 8th doesn’t seem like anyone will get to 50, and the L has 4%.

[Goredho 17413]

8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

As much as we all hate Trump, he has an adolf Hitler like ability to connect with the bottom of the barrel in this country like nobody has ever seen before and it can’t be replicated. Lots of people spend their meager paychecks going all around the country to attend trump rallies. It is like their Woodstock or their hobby or something. These people will not support a geek like Desantis. He doesn’t have the charisma and the moxie that is required to pull it off like Trump has. He probably doesn’t have the energy level and the ability to keep those trashy folks so engaged and willing to crawl over glass to support the GOP like Trump was able to do.

 

Would they support Desantis if Trump told them to?  I think the next 2 years are going to be about:

• The Dems trying to engineer Trump being their opponent
• The GOP trying to get Trump to step aside and bring his flock to Desantis

[Biff Tannen 45709]

2 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

[MeerkatBong 115]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Man other than Texas, this looks pretty spot on.

GOP house edge could be 5-10 seats, if they pick it up at all (come on California, bring it home) 
GA to runoff (almost nailed Warnock's %), Dems pick up PA - narrow losses in NC and WI.  Dems are the favorites in AZ and NV (no calls yet). 
Dems did indeed pick up MD and MA and kept PA, MI, WS, KS and NM so far.  TBD on OR and NV and AZ.  No runoff for GA (Kemp won outright).  GOP did keep TX and FL.

Around 5-6pm, I was like, "fuck I was too optimistic."  Nah, so far, I feel like I was pretty spot on. 

Seriously great job. You know your stuff politically!

[DDD Dad 14346]

10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

With that said, I do think Detrumpis could have a “Beto effect” on some of the suburban women that Beto was able to flip in 2018. He looks nice and has a soft spoken demeanor, he doesn’t insult people, he doesn’t have that toxic personality that turns people off in the suburbs like Trump does.  At the end of the day, I think it would be a wash.  He would lose the trump base, but he would win some college educated suburban people back.

In addition, Republicans aren’t going to the GOP in droves. He can’t replicate that formula nationwide. Desantis has been helped considerably by state optics that are unique to Florida. Old people move to Florida in droves and are doing all they can to keep it red. People from South American countries are doing the same thing. There’s a huge difference between a Hispanic in Nevada / Arizona and a Cuban in Florida. They won’t be able to win over or convince Arizona or Nevada Hispanics with the “socialism” rhetoric and the “democrats will rape your babies in the street” crap that worked so well in Florida.

 

[Js1 85510]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Does Colorado require a majority to avoid a runoff, or most votes wins?  The 8th doesn’t seem like anyone will get to 50, and the L has 4%.

Plurality wins.  50% bullshit is a southern thing bc racism

Edited November 9, 2022 by Js1

[Biff Tannen 45709]

@Zonahorn CNN just called it for Eli Crane over the D incumbent

[bluto 4940]

Eli crane looks like immamac

[RDCanecutter 26462]

Gotta go listen to Local Talk Radio for my sadistic pleasure. If you happen to be passing through town and hear an Evil Villain Laugh, move along, that's just me.

I actually liked the hosts back when they were anti-Roy-Moore, no they didn't want Jones but they knew insanity when they saw it. But in the Covid Times they went full conspiraceh, so fuck em. But anyway, thanks to them I learned that the true hardcore locals dislike Katie Jesus Loves Me This I Know Britt because she body-slammed their favorite Evil Snow Monkey Mo Brooks, traitorous spawn.

[Js1 85510]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

@Zonahorn CNN just called it for Eli Crane over the D incumbent

R+6 seat.  Would have been a tough hold.

Now really really need to flip AZ-01

[Zonahorn 8079]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

@Zonahorn CNN just called it for Eli Crane over the D incumbent

Tom got drawn into a really shitty district. 

[tx 3 putt 77314]

 

[Underdog 28766]

12 minutes ago, MeerkatBong said:

Seriously great job. You know your stuff politically!

Agreed. @Js1

[RomaVicta 29967]

29 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

There will be reduced impetus to do crazy stuff like start impeaching willy nilly and investigating stupid shit because you've got to get the moderate Rs to agree to it. 

I hadn't thought of that in quite a long time. Man, I hate the GOP except for whatever moderates there actually are. It takes guts to stand against the GOP criminal organization on matters of conscience and good policy. Godspeed to them.