2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[Zonahorn 8079]

God damn, Adrian has more votes than Kelly

[tx 3 putt 76960]

 

[Js1 85341]

1 minute ago, Zonahorn said:

God damn, Adrian has more votes than Kelly

Man, people FREAKED OUT about some of those polls showing Fontes down.  He might be the biggest winner in the end. 

[Bateshorn 9927]

31 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That works at both ends of the spectrum, so the moderate side could hold out as well if the mtgs of the house try to get too much, leading to nothing getting done or done or, in a dream world, debate and compromise. 

 

36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

There will be no major legislation because its a R house and D senate and presidency unless it is genuinely bipartisan.  There will be reduced impetus to do crazy stuff like start impeaching willy nilly and investigating stupid shit because you've got to get the moderate Rs to agree to it.  The D senate means judges continue to be confirmed.  Everyone start sending high cholesterol foods c/o C. Thomas, S. Alito and hope for the best for two years.  This is a complete get out of jail card in my opinion.

 

42 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It may only take 5-10 Reps to throw a wrench in the whole majority.  Either the extreme or the moderates.

Once the dust settles, Dems should start finding out who they can reach out to in an attempt to put together some sort of moderate caucus to play kingmaker.  Dems like Jared Golden would be part of that. 

 

44 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'm hoping my interpretation is correct, because I had a question about a 1 person majority. Pelosi would not be speaker anymore, so my first thought was that whoever wins speaker can just hold everything up the way McConnell did in the senate, and that might be the bigger problem. But if things do get through for a vote, are there any, at least one hopefully, who is open to voting with democrats, at least occasionally? I seriously hope so. Is this a possiblity this guy is saying? I'm just glad it looks like the Senate will remain blue so that judges can get through.

Former House guy here. 

So the first thing to understand about the House is it's straight majority rules.  Outside of a couple of procedural messaging options, the minority has no say in anything. At all. It's not like the Senate. If you can get to 218 (0r 217 depending), you can do anything you damn well please, including rewriting virtually every procedural rule. It also means Leadership holds all the keys to the good life system: good committee assignments, pressure to fund raise, tasty speaking slots on the floor, media opportunities, etc.  For the minority, it's miserable: you lose every fucking day. Never win.  Occasionally you get a good messaging tidbit, but that's it.

In general, the house has way less "personalities" then the senate. Most members are trying to get through their days without popping up on the DC radar.  Just going about their business, and as such, mostly just vote with leadership.  The leadership losing a floor vote is akin to the British defeat at Dunkirk.  When I was in the minority we won a late night vote on campaign finance reform and the dem staffers were in the gallaries heckling the GOP and their staff.  I once saw David Obey throw hands with some GOP member after a close vote the GOP held open for like 3 hours sweet talking the last couple of votes they need. 

A Majority that can't rule with an iron fist isn't a majority at all.  If the GOP reinstitutes the Hastert rule, which dictates that half the majority caucus has to support a measure to bring it to the floor, it creates huge headaches on things like raising the debt limit, where you would need most of the democrats to pass it, since the majority of republicans would oppose.  A 1 to 2 seat majority raises the specter of losing floor votes on the regular and a majority in disarray.  Particularily in a caucus that is at war with itself.

It also raises the specter of the Democrats being able to use discharge petition to temporarily seize control of the floor for particular legislation.  You are a Don Bacon and Tom Kean away from suddenly not controlling the floor on a major piece of legislation.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Bateshorn

[tx 3 putt 76960]

loololololol

 

[Js1 85341]

Dems did not fuck around in SOS races in critical 2024 states. 

Michigan, Wisconsin (Dem incumbent is up), NV (SOS may win the biggest of all the races), AZ (also may be the biggest winner of all the statewide races), CO.  Even GA's SOS, even though he's an R, remains in charge and he is no hack. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Js1 85341]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

 

 

 

A 1 to 2 seat majority raises the specter of losing floor votes on the regular and a majority in disarray.  Particularily in a caucus that is at war with itself.

Special elections could tip the House - people die, people resign for better jobs, people resign bc of scandals. 

Any special election between now and 2024 could tip the House 

[6th Street 6408]

The demise of Trump is bittersweet. On one hand it's great to see him and POS family potentially cast aside. On the other hand Biden misses out on a slam dunk victory in 2024.

[Js1 85341]

Just now, 6th Street said:

The demise of Trump is bittersweet. On one hand it's great to see him and POS family potentially cast aside. On the other hand Biden misses out on a slam dunk victory in 2024.

Until the rank and file fully abandon him, I do not believe it.   The crazies outvote the moderates in the presidential primaries. 

These same people were against him in 2016 until he won the primary.  They fall in line so easily. 

[tx 3 putt 76960]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

“Trump has gone from a movement to a distraction for the republican party.” 
 

 

 

[Aqua Buddha 14597]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Well, they tried brining "Handmaid's Tale" to life.  There's that.

[Aqua Buddha 14597]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

“Trump has gone from a movement to a distraction for the republican party.” 
 

 

 

He needs to blame the actual voters.

[Voldemort86 2259]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

“Trump has gone from a movement to a distraction for the republican party.” 
 

 

 

He’s only saying this because Trump has cost them 3 senate races in 2 years.

[lemonlime 5503]

Until the rank and file fully abandon him, I do not believe it.   The crazies outvote the moderates in the presidential primaries. 
These same people were against him in 2016 until he won the primary.  They fall in line so easily. 

It’s a cult. There’s no logic to whether the GQP breaks from him. They won’t. Unless and until their members are deprogrammed. Which isn’t happening because of polls, or common sense, or moderation.

[Js1 85341]

For those CA races that are critical to a potential majority:

CA-13, CA-22, CA-27

All have only mail-ins to count (huge chunk of the vote), which are very Dem leaning

Dem edges:

CA-27, Dems have 140k outstanding mail-in ballots and indies have 100k.  That dwarves the GOP's 84k outstanding
CA-22, Dems have 110k outstanding ballots and indies have 84k.  GOP only has 62k outstanding
CA-13, Dems have 110k outstanding and indies have 82k.  GOP has only 67k outstanding.  

These ballots tend to break 2:1 for the Dems.  Big numbers.

[WhatTheBuck 28783]

22 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

So where do we stand on the Dems’ strategy of backing Trump’s wingnut candidates? Are we okay with that now?

[Js1 85341]

Just now, WhatTheBuck said:

So where do we stand on the Dems’ strategy of backing Trump’s wingnut candidates? Are we okay with that now?

It worked without Trump on the ballot.  I'd be wary of doing it in 2024. 

[chainsaw 9869]

5 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

He needs to blame the actual voters.

That's Mayra Flores' schtick

[Goredho 17406]

Trump gets a lot of people to vote who had no faith in politics to begin with.  That is the only reason he won in 2016 and wasn't trounced by historic proportions in 2020 and all the polling was wrong.  He got a lot of people to vote who weren't normally voters.  The GOP is going to be trying like hell to figure out how to rid themselves of Trump while retaining his cult of unlikely voters while not alienating everyone else.  It's going to be interesting as fuck to watch.

[Js1 85341]

Just now, chainsaw said:

That's Mayra Flores' schtick

Nothing like blaming your base and then declaring you're going to make a comeback in 2024.

Just now, Goredho said:

The GOP is going to be trying like hell to figure out how to rid themselves of Trump while retaining his cult of unlikely voters while not alienating everyone else.  It's going to be interesting as fuck to watch.

So....Obama. 

[deft 6850]

Would they support Desantis if Trump told them to?  I think the next 2 years are going to be about:

• The Dems trying to engineer Trump being their opponent
• The GOP trying to get Trump to step aside and bring his flock to Desantis

Well good for the GOP that trump is not an ego maniac and will easily be convinced to step aside

[Pato del Muerto 52499]

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Trump gets a lot of people to vote who had no faith in politics to begin with.  That is the only reason he won in 2016 and wasn't trounced by historic proportions in 2020 and all the polling was wrong.  He got a lot of people to vote who weren't normally voters.  The GOP is going to be trying like hell to figure out how to rid themselves of Trump while retaining his cult of unlikely voters while not alienating everyone else.  It's going to be interesting as fuck to watch.

Well at least the stakes are low

[MeerkatBong 115]

I think the New Yorker said it best:

The red wave never materialized, Trump’s handpicked candidates underperformed, some new faces emerged—but the country appears as evenly divided as ever.

[tx 3 putt 76960]

6 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

So where do we stand on the Dems’ strategy of backing Trump’s wingnut candidates? Are we okay with that now?

 

it's a free country 

[Zonahorn 8079]

I don’t think the later early votes are going to save Rs. Democrats ended early voting with more registered Democrats voting. Which is insanity 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Zonahorn

[tx 3 putt 76960]

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

fuck yes

[chainsaw 9869]

A winning message (or: Midnight Yell comes to Manhattan)

 

 

[4th&Five 41554]

6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

out of how many?

[SquishMitten 10408]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

For those CA races that are critical to a potential majority:

CA-13, CA-22, CA-27

All have only mail-ins to count (huge chunk of the vote), which are very Dem leaning

Dem edges:

CA-27, Dems have 140k outstanding mail-in ballots and indies have 100k.  That dwarves the GOP's 84k outstanding
CA-22, Dems have 110k outstanding ballots and indies have 84k.  GOP only has 62k outstanding
CA-13, Dems have 110k outstanding and indies have 82k.  GOP has only 67k outstanding.  

These ballots tend to break 2:1 for the Dems.  Big numbers.

I'm assuming you're referring to the indy ballots generally breaking 2:1 Dem? So we could reasonably expect something like the following (assuming the D & R ballots mostly follow party lines):

CA-27, Dems have 140k (+66k indy) = 206k dem votes outstanding mail-in ballots and indies have 100k.  That dwarves the GOP's 84k (+33k indy) = 117k R votes outstanding That would have dems winning by a solid margin
CA-22, Dems have 110k  (+55k) =165k D outstanding ballots and indies have 84k.  GOP only has 62k (+29k) = 91k R outstanding Solid margin for Dems
CA-13, Dems have 110k (+54k) = 164k D outstanding and indies have 82k.  GOP has only 67k (+28k) = 95k R outstanding Again, solid margin for dems

[Js1 85341]

If we learned anything from this:

Trafalgar is trash

Insider Advantage is trash

Coefficient is trash

Data 4 Progress is trash

Real Clear Politics is trash

 

If you listen to or read these and come away believing what they say, you are a stupid moron 

Just now, SquishMitten said:

I'm assuming you're referring to the indy ballots generally breaking 2:1 Dem? So we could reasonably expect something like the following (assuming the D & R ballots mostly follow party lines):

CA-27, Dems have 140k (+66k indy) = 206k dem votes outstanding mail-in ballots and indies have 100k.  That dwarves the GOP's 84k (+33k indy) = 117k R votes outstanding That would have dems winning by a solid margin
CA-22, Dems have 110k  (+55k) =165k D outstanding ballots and indies have 84k.  GOP only has 62k (+29k) = 91k R outstanding Solid margin for Dems
CA-13, Dems have 110k (+54k) = 164k D outstanding and indies have 82k.  GOP has only 67k (+28k) = 95k R outstanding Again, solid margin for dems

The overall mail ballots tend to break 2:1 - Dems have to be very optimistic about these 3 races.

[Goredho 17406]

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well at least the stakes are low

The surest way to kill Trump politically and get his flock to crawl back under their rock of political disenfranchisement is for sensible conservatives and moderates who have left the GOP to return and vote against him in the primaries.  Once he is no longer a viable candidate, he has no power or leverage anymore.

[Horndog 2228]

1 hour ago, WhatTheBuck said:

The outcome is already determined. I don’t see what’s interesting about where the count stands at any given moment until all the votes have been counted and the already decided outcome is revealed. 

Schroedinger's ballot?

[chainsaw 9869]

1 minute ago, Goredho said:

The surest way to kill Trump politically and get his flock to crawl back under their rock of political disenfranchisement is for sensible conservatives and moderates who have left the GOP to return and vote against him in the primaries.  Once he is no longer a viable candidate, he has no power or leverage anymore.

Nobody has the balls to be made fun of like what happened to Little Marco, Lyin' Ted, Low Energy Jeb(!), and everyone else. They are all sheepishly hoping DeSantis will absorb all of the bullying.

[Pato del Muerto 52499]

5 minutes ago, Goredho said:

The surest way to kill Trump politically and get his flock to crawl back under their rock of political disenfranchisement is for sensible conservatives and moderates who have left the GOP to return and vote against him in the primaries.  Once he is no longer a viable candidate, he has no power or leverage anymore.

He eventually kills everything he touches, as some parasites do. We just have to wait and see if it’s the party or the country he’s killed this time. 
 

the gop likes having all of those deplorables’ votes and will do what it takes to keep them in the fold as they transition away from trump.  He has also planted the seed that winning by force is still winning and is a viable option when you don’t win at the voting machine. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Zonahorn 8079]

1 seat closer to hanging on

 

[SquishMitten 10408]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The overall mail ballots tend to break 2:1 - Dems have to be very optimistic about these 3 races.

No joke. If it's anything close to 2:1, they walk away with it. Hell, at those numbers, it might only need to be 1.3:1

[Js1 85341]

That's a lot of votes we get today - maybe a call later? 

 

[Goredho 17406]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

He eventually kills everything he touches, as some parasites do. We just have to wait and see if it’s the left or the country he’s killed this time. 
 

the gop likes having all of those deplorables’ votes and will do what it takes to keep them in the fold as they transition away from trump.  He has also planted the seed that winning by force is still winning and is a viable option when you don’t win at the voting machine. 

I think (hope?) Trump was uniquely qualified to motivate those deplorables, and that they would return to their regularly scheduled political disenfranchisement once he is not around to motivate them.  Beat him in the primaries and make him say those elections are rigged.

[Js1 85341]

1 minute ago, SquishMitten said:

No joke. If it's anything close to 2:1, they walk away with it. Hell, at those numbers, it might only need to be 1.3:1

Yeah, the CA-13 deficit right now is like 200 votes; CA-22 is like 4k and CA-27 is 18k. 

CA-40 is probably out of reach

The Dem is up in CA-41 by 10k.  This is a flip watch.

[Dnaguy 11964]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

With Sean Patrick Maloney losing in NY, the Hochulmander getting thrown out (fuck you Cuomo) and Zeldin running stronger really fucked over the Dems. 

The whole majority could have been lost in NY alone. I do believe those seats are flipping back to the Dems in a presidential year though.  

This New York mess is like a Sark coached UT squad.

Get out to a big lead: Have total dem control of legislature so that they could gerrymander the crap out of the state

Let the oppo hang around: Lose court cases so that gerrymander is nullified and a republican map used in election

Let them get back into the game: Repubs hammer crime while Dems rest on Roe outrage

Lose: Dems drop seats in NY instead of picking them up when they control all levers of gov.

[Js1 85341]

Just now, Dnaguy said:

This New York mess is like a Sark coached UT squad.

Get out to a big lead: Have total dem control of legislature so that they could gerrymander the crap out of the state

Let the oppo hang around: Lose court cases so that gerrymander is nullified and a republican map used in election

Let them get back into the game: Repubs hammer crime while Dems rest on Roe outrage

Lose: Dems drop seats in NY instead of picking them up when they control all levers of gov.

It's all Cuomo (Herman)'s fault in this case.  His appointees broke the Hochulmander.

That guy fucking SUCKS!  @PenelopeWitherspoon can tell us. 

Can NY State do a mid-decade redistrict?

Also 89 people were what separated NY from losing a seat or not. 

[Gengs1 2583]

I wish cali would take back the maps and remove every Republican from power 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

2 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

i don’t think NV senate is over yet. Lot’s of mail vote still out in Clark County. 

Just leaving Vegas now, but the Dems here remain pretty confident.

When you read about "mail-in" votes that are still to be counted in Washoe and Clark, you need to understand that those aren't actually mailed in.  The "mail-in" ballots that were received before Monday have all been counted.

The "mail-in" ballots that have yet to be counted are almost entirely ballots where the voter received a ballot in the mail, put it in an envelope, and dropped it at a polling place on election day.  And those are going to be even more Democratic than the rest of the mail-in ballots, because that was the entire Democratic GOTV focus.  They told people, "hey, it's super easy; just go and drop your ballot at the polling station and you don't have to wait in line like a schlub."

So Cortez Masto is going to win.  And she's probably going to win somewhat comfortably.  She was hitting all of the benchmarks that the Party's people expected her to need.

Sisolak is still well below the glide path.

[Js1 85341]

Katie Porter (who is at 50.3% with all in-person votes counted) confirmed in an email that California will update every night at 5pm PT with more votes.

All in-person votes have been counted in California.  Now we wait. 

 

[Js1 85341]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Just leaving Vegas now, but the Dems here remain pretty confident.

When you read about "mail-in" votes that are still to be counted in Washoe and Clark, you need to understand that those aren't actually mailed in.  The "mail-in" ballots that were received before Monday have all been counted.

The "mail-in" ballots that have yet to be counted are almost entirely ballots where the voter received a ballot in the mail, put it in an envelope, and dropped it at a polling place on election day.  And those are going to be even more Democratic than the rest of the mail-in ballots, because that was the entire Democratic GOTV focus.  They told people, "hey, it's super easy; just go and drop your ballot at the polling station and you don't have to wait in line like a schlub."

So Cortez Masto is going to win.  And she's probably going to win somewhat comfortably.  She was hitting all of the benchmarks that the Party's people expected her to need.

Sisolak is still well below the glide path.

Sounds like you had a fun night.  You were there for Aaron Ford, right?  Ford looks like one of the bigger winners of the slate, along with Aguilar (SOS).

[Gengs1 2583]

Just now, Js1 said:

Katie Porter (who is at 50.3% with all in-person votes counted) confirmed in an email that California will update every night at 5pm PT with more votes.

All in-person votes have been counted in California.  Now we wait. 

 

We can’t lose her, she is the best in house when it comes to hammering ppl with the whiteboard. That is a tight race 50.3 to 49.7, less then 1k difference in votes  

[C-Man 27230]

Anybody heard from Lindell or his “cyber guys”?