2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[Js1 85321]

1 minute ago, Gengs1 said:

We can’t lose her, she is the best in house when it comes to hammering ppl with the whiteboard. That is a tight race 50.3 to 49.7, less then 1k difference in votes  

All in-person, very little mail.  Considering Reps vote in-person by a higher margin, things look good for her. 

['stache 21813]

I think I get the Senate situation pretty well, but the House situation is too complicated for me to figure out while I'm also trying to work. All indications are that Republicans will win a slim majority but there are some upsets brewing that might give the dems a chance at the majority? How realistic is it for dems to keep the House? That would get me fully hard if they could pull that off. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Sounds like you had a fun night.  You were there for Aaron Ford, right?  Ford looks like one of the bigger winners of the slate, along with Aguilar (SOS).

Yeah.  He had a great night.  And he ran a really good campaign.

The Republicans really did him a favor by running an absolute nutjob against him.  And the amazing thin is that they nominated her over a Biglaw moderate Republican who would've given him some real trouble.  But as it ended up he was so far ahead of his benchmarks after the first round of results that he had absolutely no uncertainty.

And yeah--having the AG and the SOS in Democratic hands is absolutely critical for 2024.  I really couldn't be happier about those results.

[Pato del Muerto 52492]

One big deal of keeping the house is that the Rs don’t get to make a spectacle of pelosi passing the gavel like they’ve promised to do for 2 years now. Even with a 1 person majority, they will ham it up. 

[Js1 85321]

Just now, 'stache said:

I think I get the Senate situation pretty well, but the House situation is too complicated for me to figure out while I'm also trying to work. All indications are that Republicans will win a slim majority but there are some upsets brewing that might give the dems a chance at the majority? How realistic is it for dems to keep the House? That would get me fully hard if they could pull that off. 

Call it a slight favorite for the GOP, but losing races like Boobert's and potentially WA-03 and AZ-01 and AZ-06 would make it much more complicated for them.  Dems should hit it big in some of the California races and may flip 22 and 27.  3 is also a sleeper. 

[Bateshorn 9927]

7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I think I get the Senate situation pretty well, but the House situation is too complicated for me to figure out while I'm also trying to work. All indications are that Republicans will win a slim majority but there are some upsets brewing that might give the dems a chance at the majority? How realistic is it for dems to keep the House? That would get me fully hard if they could pull that off. 

Maybe 1 in 5 or 6 rn?  If they hadn't fucked up NY, they would be favored to hold on by 3-4 seats. 

If there is one consistent in politics, is Democrats will always find new ways to blow their own dick off.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Bateshorn

[Js1 85321]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

Maybe 1 in 5 or 6 rn?  If they hadn't fucked up NY, they would be favored to hold on by 3-4 seats. 

If there is one consistent in politics, is Democrats will always find new ways to blow their own dick off.

Fuck Cuomo

*Evergreen post* 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52492]

Getting annoyed at how long the last 30k votes are taking to see that bobo is out. 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

 

[C-Man 27222]

1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

So she's not quite dead yet? Is that what I'm reading? Dammit. Thought this was already over.

I see Lake has gotten very close to Hobbs. How do those of you who have done a deep dive there think that winds up going?

[Bama Chick 28596]

DeTrumpis was made by Trump “hence the nickname”. He would be nothing without Trump. Some other guy who I don’t even remember was going to win the nomination in Florida without Trump stepping in. 

As much as we all hate Trump, he has an adolf Hitler like ability to connect with the bottom of the barrel in this country like nobody has ever seen before and it can’t be replicated. Lots of people spend their meager paychecks going all around the country to attend trump rallies. It is like their Woodstock or their hobby or something. These people will not support a geek like Desantis. He doesn’t have the charisma and the moxie that is required to pull it off like Trump has. He probably doesn’t have the energy level and the ability to keep those trashy folks so engaged and willing to crawl over glass to support the GOP like Trump was able to do.
With that said, I do think Detrumpis could have a “Beto effect” on some of the suburban women that Beto was able to flip in 2018. He looks nice and has a soft spoken demeanor, he doesn’t insult people, he doesn’t have that toxic personality that turns people off in the suburbs like Trump does.  At the end of the day, I think it would be a wash.  He would lose the trump base, but he would win some college educated suburban people back.
In addition, Republicans aren’t going to the GOP in droves. He can’t replicate that formula nationwide. Desantis has been helped considerably by state optics that are unique to Florida. Old people move to Florida in droves and are doing all they can to keep it red. People from South American countries are doing the same thing. There’s a huge difference between a Hispanic in Nevada / Arizona and a Cuban in Florida. They won’t be able to win over or convince Arizona or Nevada Hispanics with the “socialism” rhetoric and the “democrats will rape your babies in the street” crap that worked so well in Florida.
 

YOU THINK WOMEN WILL RESPOND POSITIVELY TO RON DESANTIS????

Holy shit do your political takes suck!

[Brisketexan 105123]

2 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

YOU THINK WOMEN WILL RESPOND POSITIVELY TO RON DESANTIS????

Holy shit do your political takes suck!

I'm pretty sure Abbott won the female vote in Texas.  Do not discount how many women will 100% vote against their interests.  I don't get it, but it's a real thing.

[Gengs1 2583]

4 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

YOU THINK WOMEN WILL RESPOND POSITIVELY TO RON DESANTIS????

Holy shit do your political takes suck!

Hell yes, look at Georgia who are voting for Kemp, they will flock to him, former military etc. the campaign he ran is Florida was pretty good. Had him in photos in uniform etc.

let’s see what dirt trump has on him

[Bama Chick 28596]

He specifically mentioned suburban women like the ones who were motivated by Beto in 2018 and touted their similar personalities.

Dumb white women may pull the lever for Dumpy Ron but he’s not going to energize suburban wine moms with thoughts of calf cramps.

DeSantis has actual negative charisma.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

8 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

YOU THINK WOMEN WILL RESPOND POSITIVELY TO RON DESANTIS????

Holy shit do your political takes suck!

  He just crushed in FL. I believe they allow women to vote there. 

Just now, Bama Chick said:

He specifically mentioned suburban women like the ones who were motivated by Beto in 2018 and touted their similar personalities.

Dumb white women may pull the lever for Dumpy Ron but he’s not going to energize suburban wine moms with thoughts of calf cramps.

DeSantis has actual negative charisma.

Oh. You mean women won’t be horny for him.  Not women won’t vote for him.  Very important. 

[Satchel 6938]

It appears Spanberger and Slotkin have won their races. These were two seats Republicans hung the red wave on.

[Js1 85321]

 

Horsford was lean D, the other two were tossups. 

[Gengs1 2583]

Ron even convinced the mma bros to vote for him, they have him pegged as a strongman/fighter, he is eating into the trump base but is a bit behind 

[Pancho 44775]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm pretty sure Abbott won the female vote in Texas.  Do not discount how many women will 100% vote against their interests.  I don't get it, but it's a real thing.

Reminds me of what Selina said:

 “I can’t identify myself as a woman. People can’t know that. Men hate that. And women who hate women hate that — which, I believe, is most women.”

[Ghost of LL 15531]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm pretty sure Abbott won the female vote in Texas.  Do not discount how many women will 100% vote against their interests.  I don't get it, but it's a real thing.

Women acting against their interests is the only way you've ever gotten laid.  So yeah--it's definitely a real and recurring phenomenon.  

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Brisketexan 105123]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Women acting against their interests is the only way you've ever gotten laid.  So yeah--it's definitely a real and recurring phenomenon.  

[Js1 85321]

Going back to look at Cook Political's tossup seats:

The only Dem tossups we appear to have lost are Luria, NY-19 (open), NY-17, NY-03 and NY-04.  Dems either won or are leading/likely to win the other 21 races.

Dems have also won 5 of the 10 Rep tossup seats with an outside chance of 4 more. 

Dems might win CA-41 and WA-03, which are lean R.  OR-05 has not been called either.  Dems also won CO-03, which was not even on the list.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

There's a Clark County elections press conference here at the bottom of the hour, which will reveal how many mail-in ballots they have (though there will be a few more trickling in over the next few days).

[WhatTheBuck 28779]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

So 228 of them won?

[tx 3 putt 76934]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Women acting against their interests is the only way you've ever gotten laid.  So yeah--it's definitely a real and recurring phenomenon.  

I’m a fan of this !

[Neonmoon 38129]

So how many days do we have to wait for Arizona and Nevada and CO to be called?

[Js1 85321]

OregonLive calls Oregon gov for Tina Kotek. 

Huge hold!  

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

There's a Clark County elections press conference here at the bottom of the hour, which will reveal how many mail-in ballots they have (though there will be a few more trickling in over the next few days).

And Ralston says the 57k in Washoe are all mail, no Election Day.  Those should be Dem leaning. 

[Js1 85321]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

So how many days do we have to wait for Arizona and Nevada and CO to be called?

Arizona possibly today because they have a huge dump of votes coming later

Nevada tomorrow or Friday

Colorado, idk. 

[Pato del Muerto 52492]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Going back to look at Cook Political's tossup seats:

The only Dem tossups we appear to have lost are Luria, NY-19 (open), NY-17, NY-03 and NY-04.  Dems either won or are leading/likely to win the other 21 races.

Dems have also won 5 of the 10 Rep tossup seats with an outside chance of 4 more. 

Dems might win CA-41 and WA-03, which are lean R.  OR-05 has not been called either.  Dems also won CO-03, which was not even on the list.

CO-8 still in good shape as they crossed the 90% mark

[WhatTheBuck 28779]

1 hour ago, Horndog said:

Schroedinger's ballot?

Sort of. But it’s like peaking under the lid in a darkened room so you can’t quite tell for sure if you see a cat or not. 

[Bullneck 19084]

49 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

We can’t lose her, she is the best in house when it comes to hammering ppl with the whiteboard. That is a tight race 50.3 to 49.7, less then 1k difference in votes  

Blows my mind it's that close.

[wildcat09 29354]

21 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

He specifically mentioned suburban women like the ones who were motivated by Beto in 2018 and touted their similar personalities.

Dumb white women may pull the lever for Dumpy Ron but he’s not going to energize suburban wine moms with thoughts of calf cramps.

DeSantis has actual negative charisma.

Even if DeSantis somehow comes out ahead of Trump to win the GOP nomination, this is what the general will look like:

 

DeSantis ain't turning out the extra 12 million non-voters that Trump brings out.  

[Js1 85321]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

CO-8 still in good shape as they crossed the 90% mark

It was called by some, not by others.  I do consider it a Dem win. 

['stache 21813]

25 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

He specifically mentioned suburban women like the ones who were motivated by Beto in 2018 and touted their similar personalities.

Dumb white women may pull the lever for Dumpy Ron but he’s not going to energize suburban wine moms with thoughts of calf cramps.

DeSantis has actual negative charisma.

Suburban white women are some of the most self-absorbed judgmental bitches in existence. Many are religious fanatics who are happy as hell that Roe was overturned and think women exist to serve men (think aggy girls and their MRS degrees). Many hate other women in general and don't care about Roe since abortion has never been something they've had to consider and is just for loose sluts (and knowing full well that they are privileged enough to afford an abortion in another state if they or their daughters need them, only poor women who need abortions should suffer). Others are just angry conservatives who need lib tears more than rights (and again know they can go to other states if needed). I've seen you refer to this several times and I just can't agree that Roe made that big of a difference. Women who are angry that it was overturned were already leaned liberal and those who are happy about it or are indifferent haven't really changed much. That's based more on my personal observation and opinion, and to the extent I acknowledge that Roe might have made a difference with some women, I don't see it as that big of a difference in these elections. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by 'stache

[Hermanator 7042]

28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm pretty sure Abbott won the female vote in Texas.  Do not discount how many women will 100% vote against their interests.  I don't get it, but it's a real thing.

The vast majority of people vote against their interests. Name a single piece of republican legislation from the past 20 years that aided non corporations/non wealthy? 

The vast majority of republican voters aren't wealthy. They're just fucking themselves over, but in this country they have that right. 

[Js1 85321]

4 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Blows my mind it's that close.

NO

MAIL

YET

 

Mail overwhelming is Dem.  Only 167k votes so far.  305k votes in 2018.  So much to wait for. 

[Bullneck 19084]

53 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Anybody heard from Lindell or his “cyber guys”?

Two weeks.

[Pancho 44775]

 

[Bullneck 19084]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

NO

MAIL

YET

 

Mail overwhelming is Dem.  Only 167k votes so far.  305k votes in 2018.  So much to wait for. 

Okay, okay.  I just read that upthread.  🤪

[Gengs1 2583]

 

 

[Js1 85321]

Just now, Bullneck said:

Okay, okay.  I just read that upthread.  🤪

California takes weeks because of mail.  Should be daily updates at 7pm central time (5pm pacific time) 

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

 

Major LMAO on those Trafalgar/Insider Advantage polls showing Walker winning 20-25% of the black vote. 

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

58 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Anybody heard from Lindell or his “cyber guys”?

In 2 weeks.

[Satchel 6938]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

California takes weeks because of mail.  Should be daily updates at 7pm central time (5pm pacific time) 

Major LMAO on those Trafalgar/Insider Advantage polls showing Walker winning 20-25% of the black vote. 

Hopefully, after Trafalgar predicts 50% of the black vote going to Hershel, Warnock will garner 98,9% of it for the win.

[Storm the Field 5294]

8 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

[gmr548 16576]

Suburban white women are some of the most self-absorbed judgmental bitches in existence. Many are religious fanatics who are happy as hell that Roe was overturned and think women exist to serve men (think aggy girls and their MRS degrees). Many hate other women in general and don't care about Roe since abortion has never been something they've had to consider and is just for loose sluts (and knowing full well that they are privileged enough to afford an abortion in another state if they or their daughters need them, only poor women who need abortions should suffer). Others are just angry conservatives who need lib tears more than rights (and again know they can go to other states if needed). I've seen you refer to this several times and I just can't agree that Roe made that big of a difference. Women who are angry that it was overturned were already leaned liberal and those who are happy about it or are indifferent haven't really changed much. That's based more on my personal observation and opinion, and to the extent I acknowledge that Roe might have made a difference with some women, I don't see it as that big of a difference in these elections. 

Abortion was on the ballot in Michigan and Democrats took a trifecta.

Abortion was recently on the ballot in Kansas and a Democratic Governor survived in a deep red state in a neutral environment, in a historically perilous midterm.

Abortion was on the ballot in California and Democrats could win several House races right to be in danger.

Shades of woman hating in the rest of the post aside, even if taking it as true for argument’s sake, the logical conclusion of that the abortion issue clearly energized the last group you mentioned.

[Js1 85321]

MSNBC may know something, because they flashed Nevada with Masto up 20k votes. 

[Firemans4Horn 18048]

59 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Maybe 1 in 5 or 6 rn?  If they hadn't fucked up NY, they would be favored to hold on by 3-4 seats. 

If there is one consistent in politics, is Democrats will always find new ways to blow their own dick off.

and the Supreme Court will find ways to approve Republican gerrymanders. 
 

 

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Suburban white women are some of the most self-absorbed judgmental bitches in existence. Many are religious fanatics who are happy as hell that Roe was overturned and think women exist to serve men (think aggy girls and their MRS degrees). Many hate other women in general and don't care about Roe since abortion has never been something they've had to consider and is just for loose sluts (and knowing full well that they are privileged enough to afford an abortion in another state if they or their daughters need them, only poor women who need abortions should suffer). Others are just angry conservatives who need lib tears more than rights (and again know they can go to other states if needed). I've seen you refer to this several times and I just can't agree that Roe made that big of a difference. Women who are angry that it was overturned were already leaned liberal and those who are happy about it or are indifferent haven't really changed much. That's based more on my personal observation and opinion, and to the extent I acknowledge that Roe might have made a difference with some women, I don't see it as that big of a difference in these elections. 

Oh please, tell me more about white women.

This is always fun.