2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[Js1 85436]

5 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Crazy day at the office today. Someone tell me where we stand and where we likely end up

House tilting R but very small majority. Path still exists for Dems to retain it.  No one will call the House one way or another until the CA races are done, we may not know for weeks 

Mail is going to tell us the most about NV/AZ but Kelly and CCM should win in the end.  GA to a runoff in early December 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Js1

[Pato del Muerto 52529]

4 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Yeah whoever wins these last votes gets it. Do we know where is outstanding?  Still some from Pueblo and Garfield right?

 

just imagine if she does come back to win, all the people that will think it was their prayers that made it happen. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

8 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

NC is on my Texpatriate list.

Bienvenido a California! 

[tx 3 putt 77111]

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It shouldn’t be. It’s “purple” but hasn’t voted blue for President since 2008 and has 2 gop senators and a GOP Supreme Court 

Well not if you keep telling the blue voters to not move there. 

[Js1 85436]

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

 

[bluto 4932]

Whatever it’s worth from recent co dump

[Voldemort86 2259]

I don’t want the GOP to take the house, but you’d have to imagine that a GOP majority of 220 or less would be extremely entertaining and could make them look really incompetent before 2024.  It might not be entirely a bad thing. 

[hobbes2702 13048]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

House tilting R but very small majority. Path still exists for Dems to retain it.  No one will call the House one way or another until the CA races are done, we may not know for weeks 

Mail is going to tell us the most about NV/AZ but Kelly and CCM should win in the end.  GA to a runoff in early December 

What’s your guess at final seat totals?

[Js1 85436]

@Zonahorn

Thoughts on AZ-06? Will Pima save Engel? NYT has almost 40% outstanding and it’s the largest county 

Nvm DDHQ just called it for the Rep. god damnit 

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

What’s your guess at final seat totals?

220-215

Edited November 9, 2022 by Js1

[Longhorn_Fan68 33876]

 

 

[hobbes2702 13048]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

@Zonahorn

Thoughts on AZ-06? Will Pima save Engel? NYT has almost 40% outstanding and it’s the largest county 

220-215

Damn but not bad at all. Are we deadlocked in the Senate?

[Js1 85436]

Just now, hobbes2702 said:

Damn but not bad at all. Are we deadlocked in the Senate?

If Kelly and CCM win, it’s 50-49 and Warnock can make it 51. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33876]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

@Zonahorn

Thoughts on AZ-06? Will Pima save Engel? NYT has almost 40% outstanding and it’s the largest county 

220-215

 

[chainsaw 9872]

Just now, Js1 said:

If Kelly and CCM win, it’s 50-49 and Warnock can make it 51. 

49 is Murkowski post-Round 2 of RCV right?

[Js1 85436]

Just now, chainsaw said:

49 is Murkowski post-Round 2 of RCV right?

That’s going to be R regardless. Depends which R but an R nonetheless 

[chainsaw 9872]

Just now, Js1 said:

That’s going to be R regardless. Depends which R but an R nonetheless 

Yeah but Murkowski is way ahead I thought.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If Kelly and CCM win, it’s 50-49 and Warnock can make it 51. 

Dems need every seat they can find for a post-2024 senate. 

[Chad Fuck 17686]

Ahhhh, come on.  She's a literal hooker.

Hey now. There’s a lotta good threads here that wouldn’t exist without hookers.

[Js1 85436]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Yeah but Murkowski is way ahead I thought.

The CW is Murkowski wins bc all Dems ranked her second 

[Zonahorn 8079]

20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

@Zonahorn

Thoughts on AZ-06? Will Pima save Engel? NYT has almost 40% outstanding and it’s the largest county 

Nvm DDHQ just called it for the Rep. god damnit 

220-215

Nope, I fucking hate life

EDIT: where are you seeing a call for AZ-6? They called AZ-2 for sure

Edited November 10, 2022 by Zonahorn

[Zonahorn 8079]

Republican Gerrymander going to net 2 or 3 house seats in AZ. Fuuuuuuuuuuuck

[Js1 85436]

Nevada. Indies in the mail going heavy Dem, so all those ballots waiting to be counted are going to net Dems a lot of votes 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52529]

Normally I like split tickets as it hopefully means people put some amount of thought into their votes to choose the people they feel best represent them, but is this the right election to be splitting in AZ?

[Bullneck 19181]

35 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

They're both catching up and some believe the remaining votes help them even more.  Who knows.

SIAP, but I see that Madison Cawthorn's seat easily stayed with the GOP. The m-fer only had to keep the status quo and he could have kept that seat for life.

ISWYDT

[Js1 85436]

late California mail ins are younger and more Dem than the early ones in LA, could be similar statewide.  Common theme in CA - the later the ballots, the younger and more Dem they are 

 

[Sawbonz 27580]

26 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Shouldn’t they have stopped counting last night?

[Foosters 17858]

26 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

On an unrelated note, can someone tell this casual observer why its not a total disaster that the 30-44 age group only went D+2? After all the shit GOP has pulled, not to mention Roe going down, how tf do the millennials basically split equally between GOP and Dems?

[Js1 85436]

1 minute ago, Foosters said:

 

On an unrelated note, can someone tell this casual observer why its not a total disaster that the 30-44 age group only went D+2? After all the shit GOP has pulled, not to mention Roe going down, how tf do the millennials basically split equally between GOP and Dems?

I believe that’s exits, so I’d wait and see a bit. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

3 minutes ago, Foosters said:

 

On an unrelated note, can someone tell this casual observer why its not a total disaster that the 30-44 age group only went D+2? After all the shit GOP has pulled, not to mention Roe going down, how tf do the millennials basically split equally between GOP and Dems?

I was baffled by that too. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

Dammit JS, gave me a fucking heart attack Engel had lost already

[gmr548 16580]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Dems need every seat they can find for a post-2024 senate. 

THIS.

In 2024, Democrats will be defending in MT, NV, AZ, WI, OH, PA, and WV. In a bad environment, NM, VA, and maybe even MN could be on the table. No realistic pickups. It's the downside of downsides, but Democrats could lose 10 Senate seats in 2024. They'll almost certainly lose their majority, the only question is if it can be recovered in the next cycle or not.

The difference in 51 vs 50 for the next two years is somewhat limited in practical application - nullifying the craziness of half of Manchin-Sinema is something, but not as important given there's no legislation coming from the house - but in 2024 it is enormous in likely guaranteeing that the GOP can't get a filibuster-proof majority even in their best case scenario, and could be the difference between getting to a majority or not in 2026.

[Surly Bevo 25060]

 
On an unrelated note, can someone tell this casual observer why its not a total disaster that the 30-44 age group only went D+2? After all the shit GOP has pulled, not to mention Roe going down, how tf do the millennials basically split equally between GOP and Dems?

Seems like a shitty age grouping. People 30-35 are in a far different place generally than people 40-44.

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Js1 85436]

Just now, Zonahorn said:

 

That’s a lot of votes in Pima. I’m surprised DDHQ made that call 

[Bullneck 19181]

Just now, Js1 said:

I believe that’s exits, so I’d wait and see a bit. 

If there's any hope of keeping the house where are the crucial wins going to come from?  

[Gengs1 2583]

7 minutes ago, Foosters said:

 

On an unrelated note, can someone tell this casual observer why its not a total disaster that the 30-44 age group only went D+2? After all the shit GOP has pulled, not to mention Roe going down, how tf do the millennials basically split equally between GOP and Dems?

The gop has been pumping a shit ton of ppl through the podcast space like Shapiro, louder with crowder, joe rogan, young ppl listen to them 

[Born to Run 6569]

Bienvenido a California! 

You'll feel right at home in Beautiful Bakersfield!

[Js1 85436]

Just now, Bullneck said:

If there's any hope of keeping the house where are the crucial wins going to come from?  

California. Boobert’s seat. AZ-01/06. WA-03 and the Oregon seats. 

They finally called NM-02 as a flip. That helps. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

1 minute ago, Bullneck said:

If there's any hope of keeping the house where are the crucial wins going to come from?  

California is gonna have to bailout NY 

[Zonahorn 8079]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s a lot of votes in Pima. I’m surprised DDHQ made that call 

You are getting the district confused, AZ-6 is the new secondary Tucson district. The 2nd is Eastern AZ. Engel is still alive

[Js1 85436]

Just now, Doc Sam Beckett said:

California is gonna have to bailout NY 

AZ/CA committes not being aggressive enough + NY overturning the Hochulmander + OH Supreme Court completely deferring to the legislature breaking the law + DeSantismander

Just now, Zonahorn said:

You are getting the district confused, AZ-6 is the new secondary Tucson district. The 2nd is Eastern AZ. Engel is still alive

Thanks. My brain is still fried from being up all night 

[Bullneck 19181]

These people are so goddamned stupid:

Quote

JustPanda

4:05p

 

AG

 

She somehow managed to lose Garfield County by 10-15%. Garfield county isn't a purple county. It's a RED county. We have a Republicans in every other elected position….everything. That means a lot of people split their ticket with her or just left her vote blank

 

AgOutsideAustin

4:05p

 

AG

 

She's a spinner I hope she wins

 

Captn_Ag05

4:06p

 

AG

 

The district is 65-35 Republican. She should have focused more time on her constituents and less on being AOC with a gun.

 

JustPanda

In reply to BluHorseShu • 4:06p

 

AG

 

That's my thought. The district leans so heavily R that I'd be shocked if a super lib entitled ex Aspen city council member survives long term.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

THIS.

In 2024, Democrats will be defending in MT, NV, AZ, WI, OH, PA, and WV. In a bad environment, NM, VA, and maybe even MN could be on the table. No realistic pickups. It's the downside of downsides, but Democrats could lose 10 Senate seats in 2024. They'll almost certainly lose their majority, the only question is if it can be recovered in the next cycle or not.

The difference in 51 vs 50 for the next two years is somewhat limited in practical application - nullifying the craziness of half of Manchin-Sinema is something, but not as important given there's no legislation coming from the house - but in 2024 it is enormous in likely guaranteeing that the GOP can't get a filibuster-proof majority even in their best case scenario, and could be the difference between getting to a majority or not in 2026.

Most of the races you mention will cost ungodly amounts of money to win. Dems are basically going to sudden death Overtime with Warnock right now. They have to throw in whatever possible to keep warnock in the senate thru 2028.

[Chewbacca 7780]

38 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Yeah whoever wins these last votes gets it. Do we know where is outstanding?  Still some from Pueblo and Garfield right?

 

just imagine if she does come back to win, all the people that will think it was their prayers that made it happen. 

Primarily Pueblo and Garfield, I believe.  The last dump was Mesa, so that should be the last big block of her supporters.

[Bullneck 19181]

 

 

[The Dog 44066]

[Chewbacca 7780]

Another ~2500 ballots in (don't know where they're from).  Frisch now up 73...

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

2 hours ago, 'stache said:

Since Nevada is now firmly a swing state, can they find a better way to count votes? What a beating waiting forever to see who wins those races. 

Get a blackjack dealer to count. They always seem to know I'm over 21 before I do.

[Js1 85436]

otero only has 300-400 left for Boebert. The only territory left she’s winning 

Pueblo has like 6000 but those fucks are getting some time off to eat and rest. Pussies!