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2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

Js1

By Js1
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Born to Run

Born to Run 6569

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369c3fff829e63b7a281bf464b0a6093.jpg
 
On an unrelated note, can someone tell this casual observer why its not a total disaster that the 30-44 age group only went D+2? After all the shit GOP has pulled, not to mention Roe going down, how tf do the millennials basically split equally between GOP and Dems?
I've been screaming this for years: Not all utes go to college find a new black friend and undo years of systemic racism. Plenty go on to be welders and hate taxes and mythical welfare queens as they were raised. And, this is shocking, not all migrants to Texas are liberal techbros. Someone has to build the facility the techbros work in, or remodel the house they move in to, and those folks are gonna be Maga types through and through.

I see it daily. I personally can't imagine putting political shit on my Work vehicle but they do. Progressive clients bitch, but what can I do? Who can I hire? We are fresh the fuck out of immigrants who might keep thier head down and not air political messages.
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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5 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

I've been screaming this for years: Not all utes go to college find a new black friend and undo years of systemic racism. Plenty go on to be welders and hate taxes and mythical welfare queens as they were raised. And, this is shocking, not all migrants to Texas are liberal techbros. Someone has to build the facility the techbros work in, or remodel the house they move in to, and those folks are gonna be Maga types through and through.

I see it daily. I personally can't imagine putting political shit on my Work vehicle but they do. Progressive clients bitch, but what can I do? Who can I hire? We are fresh the fuck out of immigrants who might keep thier head down and not air political messages.

Tell them good help is hard to find.

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

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House watching is just entertainment to us.  The war is already won.  No wave.  Admit it’s flipping and move on.  AZ, GA and NV senate are all that really matters.  

I’d add the AZ and NV governorships/SOS races to that list of things that matter.
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Satchel

Satchel 6938

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2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm giving up on Texas.  The state Rs won by a million votes each.  A million.  That's after little children were fucking liquified and old people froze to death and we are all now paying higher electric bills to pay off their cronies.  There's no defeating a million votes that don't give a shit about any of that.

And the AG is a won ton criminal.

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Js1

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4 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

What a dumpster fire of a state. That’s nothing close to a representative democracy. 
 

 

And it won’t unless Dems flip the WI Supreme Court and overturn those maps. 2023 is the next opportunity I believe

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9872

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2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Bobo down 73 votes 98% reporting.  
 

Both sides must be scouring their strong areas for unaccounted for bins. 

I wonder if his campaign had a victory plan of any kind. Did anyone foresee this (race being close at all)?

Edited by chainsaw
specifying what i mean
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29192

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ok, finally caught up, was traveling back from fucking florida which takes half the fucking day.  here are some general thoughts after watching coverage, especially watching clips and reading shit from the right about how astounded they are that the red wave didn't actually happen:

-polling needs to change or go away.  it doesn't work, it's based on models, previous behavior, stats, and assumes a small number of people can be a moderately accurate template for a large group using some simple math bends.  vote tallies are news.  how the vote tallies didn't match polling is not news.  how past polling got lucky in certain areas is not news.  local people who cover and know geographical area is all we should be interested in until early voting starts.

-presidential approval rating is an archaic and completely useless metric.  this could be its own thread, but for now i'll just say that plenty of people "disapprove" of biden's job performance but that has very little to do with them going out and voting gop wherever they live.  i'm trying to find a use for it but i can't.  it was also included on lots of lists...

-and these lists were part of right-leaning pundits investigations to piece everything back together last night/this morning.  "crime, biden's approval is in the toilet, inflation is setting records, gas prices, how in the world did this happen?!?"  um, ok.  first of all, stop listing approval rating, nobody is voting for hershel walker because of biden.  they were already going to vote for walker.  second, stop listing made-up shit like crime, that you helped make a thing.  oh, and also, here's why the "list" doesn't matter:

-republicans don't have issues or policy platforms.  it's been a while, and last time they just pointed at trump and said that's our platform.  the fuck outta here.  the gop decided to play scare tactic games and lean into culture war nonsense for years while the dems tried to win on policy positions and issues.  the republicans turned this into a team sport.  they universally voted against every single thing that could've helped their constituents, but instead decided this is who they are. 

-well guess fucking what?  old people died and a lot of 17 year olds turned 18.  there are more of us than there are of you, and guess what else?  it's not about issues anymore, because you decided you wanted it to be a team sport without first checking the scoreboard.  the gop lost races they could've possibly won because they forgot they changed the rules that everyone else is playing by.  twitter profiles promoting dems didn't argue about inflation, they didn't explain gas prices, they said vote blue. 

but no, now the gop wants to list issues and befuddle themselves about why they lost.  well, it's too fucking late for that.  they should be happy that the only reason they're taking the house is because of fucked up redistricting and bullshit court rulings on map-drawings.  fuck all the way off and take the loss, pussies.  

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Js1

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Waiting on Maricopa to fly in some phantom Jeb ballots 

Just now, Pancho said:

 

Man other than FL, I don’t see a Latino problem. South Texas was better and Dems did not lose ground in CO, NM, AZ, NV, CA with them 

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Js1

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Pueblo County ballot processors have gone home. Unlikely to have resolution on CO-03 until tomorrow. They’ll finish counting what they have ready but no new ballots will be prepped 

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9872

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Waiting on Maricopa to fly in some phantom Jeb ballots 

Man other than FL, I don’t see a Latino problem. South Texas was better and Dems did not lose ground in CO, NM, AZ, NV, CA with them 

Texas had an enthusiasm problem. Vibes were way different from 2018. No Betomania, really. Way fewer yard signs. Even with low turnout in the cities and along the border, Beto outperformed 2018 Lupe Valdez vs. Abbott but underperformed 2018 Beto vs. Cruz.

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

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Nice to see Hobbs pulling away a bit. 

I see an 8k vote gap. Reporter tweet upthread quoted a GOP source as saying Lake campaign was feeling good as they only need ~51% of outstanding vote. Going to be watching that closely. Lake and the stooge SOS in charge of AZ means you can write that state off in 2024, 2026, and 2028 at a minimum. They will not certify any Democratic wins that might occur.
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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24 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

ok, finally caught up, was traveling back from fucking florida which takes half the fucking day.  here are some general thoughts after watching coverage, especially watching clips and reading shit from the right about how astounded they are that the red wave didn't actually happen:

-polling needs to change or go away.  it doesn't work, it's based on models, previous behavior, stats, and assumes a small number of people can be a moderately accurate template for a large group using some simple math bends.  vote tallies are news.  how the vote tallies didn't match polling is not news.  how past polling got lucky in certain areas is not news.  local people who cover and know geographical area is all we should be interested in until early voting starts.

-presidential approval rating is an archaic and completely useless metric.  this could be its own thread, but for now i'll just say that plenty of people "disapprove" of biden's job performance but that has very little to do with them going out and voting gop wherever they live.  i'm trying to find a use for it but i can't.  it was also included on lots of lists...

-and these lists were part of right-leaning pundits investigations to piece everything back together last night/this morning.  "crime, biden's approval is in the toilet, inflation is setting records, gas prices, how in the world did this happen?!?"  um, ok.  first of all, stop listing approval rating, nobody is voting for hershel walker because of biden.  they were already going to vote for walker.  second, stop listing made-up shit like crime, that you helped make a thing.  oh, and also, here's why the "list" doesn't matter:

-republicans don't have issues or policy platforms.  it's been a while, and last time they just pointed at trump and said that's our platform.  the fuck outta here.  the gop decided to play scare tactic games and lean into culture war nonsense for years while the dems tried to win on policy positions and issues.  the republicans turned this into a team sport.  they universally voted against every single thing that could've helped their constituents, but instead decided this is who they are. 

-well guess fucking what?  old people died and a lot of 17 year olds turned 18.  there are more of us than there are of you, and guess what else?  it's not about issues anymore, because you decided you wanted it to be a team sport without first checking the scoreboard.  the gop lost races they could've possibly won because they forgot they changed the rules that everyone else is playing by.  twitter profiles promoting dems didn't argue about inflation, they didn't explain gas prices, they said vote blue. 

but no, now the gop wants to list issues and befuddle themselves about why they lost.  well, it's too fucking late for that.  they should be happy that the only reason they're taking the house is because of fucked up redistricting and bullshit court rulings on map-drawings.  fuck all the way off and take the loss, pussies.  

I’m glad that the American public ( from a general sense) realized that the GOP had nothing to offer because they don’t. All they do is pass a tax cut bill and shrug their shoulders at every other problem or issue going on and say “free markets…… trickle down….stock market” blah blah. They don’t do shut but enrich the rich. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29192

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3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m glad that the American public ( from a general sense) realized that the GOP had nothing to offer because they don’t. All they do is pass a tax cut bill and shrug their shoulders at every other problem or issue going on and say “free markets…… trickle down….stock market” blah blah. They don’t do shut but enrich the rich. 

they explain that the govt is bloated, corrupt, and inefficient.  then, when they get elected, they sit around, do nothing, and steal.

then they look at voters and say, "see?"

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