2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[chainsaw 9870]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The runoff definitely favors Warnock for several reasons:

More reliable Dem coalition (college educated voters)

No Kemp to boost Walker

Walker is not liked, so why turn out to vote for just him 

No way to flip the Senate now; GOP is deflated and Dems have the momentum 

Abrams turnout machine (for others, not herself)

The biggest question is whether Manchin will be stumping for Walker

[Francisco 2.0 32395]

6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Obama got 30% of the rural retard vote in 2008.

Beto got 21.2%

that’s a huge difference. Especially because Beto personally went to all of those counties. Fox News is tough to overcome.

 

 

 

 

[HenryJames 66125]

 

[Mo Horn 8849]

36 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

If this does turn out to be true, I'm guessing the turnout in Georgia will be really low, and should favor Warnock. If there are 51 dems in the senate then Manchin loses a ton of his power. 

[Pato del Muerto 52526]

Wake and bake, Colorado. Time to send Lauren’s political career to the ferryman, without two coins. I’m sure she’ll pay him somehow. 

[Gap03 3308]

3 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

If this does turn out to be true, I'm guessing the turnout in Georgia will be really low, and should favor Warnock. If there are 51 dems in the senate then Manchin loses a ton of his power. 

Yeah, but ...

Short of getting to 52, the Dems are still going to be held hostage by these two.  

[Mo Horn 8849]

2 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Yeah, but ...

Short of getting to 52, the Dems are still going to be held hostage by these two.  

True. Wouldn't surprise me if either of them decided to flip parties, or maybe go Independent. 

[Js1 85416]

4 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Yeah, but ...

Short of getting to 52, the Dems are still going to be held hostage by these two.  

She’s on thin ice because she’s very close to someone like Gallego starting his primary challenge

Just now, Mo Horn said:

True. Wouldn't surprise me if either of them decided to flip parties, or maybe go Independent. 

Unlikely. 

[Gap03 3308]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Wake and bake, Colorado. Time to send Lauren’s political career to the ferryman, without two coins. I’m sure she’ll pay him somehow. 

Colorado, Nevada and Arizona all trying to outdo each other this year.  Time to break the classics back out ...

[Gap03 3308]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

She’s on thin ice because she’s very close to someone like Gallego starting his primary challenge.

I think a Gallego senate run is absolutely in the cards. 

Sinema is probably hoping that Lake pulls out the win - otherwise, she might need to stay out of crosswalks, away from windows, etc. in Arizona.   

[SydneyCarton 48110]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’s on thin ice because she’s very close to someone like Gallego starting his primary challenge

 

That doesn't factor one bit into her thinking. She knows she cast her die already, and that she's going to get primaried by Gallego already. She's knows she'll be Tulsi Gabbard'ing it up here in a few years. She'll play into that avenue of her life, not work to cling to her Democratic position. 

[WBT 20617]

57 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

That's what it started looking like to me by yesterday morning.  With Rs going 0-2 in the last runoff when they actually had a chance to win the Senate, I can't see their enthusiasm/turnout being better this time.  Although I guess there will also be some dampening affect for Ds knowing that they'll have the Senate no matter what.

[Firemans4Horn 18107]

3 minutes ago, WBT said:

That's what it started looking like to me by yesterday morning.  With Rs going 0-2 in the last runoff when they actually had a chance to win the Senate, I can't see their enthusiasm/turnout being better this time.  Although I guess there will also be some dampening affect for Ds knowing that they'll have the Senate no matter what.

how much enthusiasm could their be for Repubs to get off their couch and go vote for that mouth breather Walker with no other races on the ticket? I think the Dems will get the Warnock vote to show up like they did 2 years ago. 

[Mo Horn 8849]

3 minutes ago, WBT said:

That's what it started looking like to me by yesterday morning.  With Rs going 0-2 in the last runoff when they actually had a chance to win the Senate, I can't see their enthusiasm/turnout being better this time.  Although I guess there will also be some dampening affect for Ds knowing that they'll have the Senate no matter what.

There will be more motivation for those who want to vote against Walker than those who want to vote for him, but the turnout will be really low

[Mo Horn 8849]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’s on thin ice because she’s very close to someone like Gallego starting his primary challenge

Unlikely. 

I'm happy to be wrong

[gmr548 16580]

how much enthusiasm could their be for Repubs to get off their couch and go vote for that mouth breather Walker with no other races on the ticket? I think the Dems will get the Warnock vote to show up like they did 2 years ago. 

There will be more motivation for those who want to vote against Walker than those who want to vote for him, but the turnout will be really low

There’s some potential truth in the last point, but I’d also note that a runoff is where the democrats really get an advantage out of now being the party of more educated voters.

[Macklemore 2872]

Sohrab Ahmari nails it. I’m glad the GOP didn’t get their red wave with peddling the same crap. The transformation to the type of party that I’m looking for hasn’t happened yet because of the zombie GOP playbook that idiots still peddle. This country desperately needs a new party to replace the GOP. Post-liberals like myself don’t have a home.

 

[Js1 85416]

19 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

There’s some potential truth in the last point, but I’d also note that a runoff is where the democrats really get an advantage out of now being the party of more educated voters.

 

100% this

[C-Man 27230]

3 hours ago, Clintonaldo said:

The only race I care about it Lake losing Arizona. I cannot believe people in good conscience can vote for her. 

We really, really need Finchem to go down in the SOS race. He's a full-blown MAGA/election denier who will make things fucky in the 2024 Presidential Election if he's in office.

 

2 hours ago, Celery Man said:

Holy shit is that true?

 

 

[Js1 85416]

1 minute ago, C-Man said:

We really, really need Finchem to go down in the SOS race. He's a full-blown MAGA/election denier who will make things fucky in the 2024 Presidential Election if he's in office.

@Zonahorn is more optimistic than I am but I see Lake/Kelly/Fontes as the most likely outcome 

Kelly and Fontes are running neck and neck right now with Hobbs behind them. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Js1

[Gengs1 2583]

9 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Sohrab Ahmari nails it. I’m glad the GOP didn’t get their red wave with peddling the same crap. The transformation to the type of party that I’m looking for hasn’t happened yet because of the zombie GOP playbook that idiots still peddle. This country desperately needs a new party to replace the GOP. Post-liberals like myself don’t have a home.

 

Lulz, when has the Republican Party been about helping American workers?

 

please list legislation that helped the American workers that were sponsored and approved by republicans?

Edited November 10, 2022 by Gengs1

[Gengs1 2583]

 

 

 

[Gengs1 2583]

 

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

13 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Fascists like myself don’t have a home.

 

Good

Edited November 10, 2022 by SmokeyTheBear

[Js1 85416]

2 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

 

 

 

At no point in my cycle of predictions did I have "Lauren Boebert's seat is potentially the one to decide the House majority for 2023" on my bingo card

Which means this timeline is only going to get more wild.

If it ends up being 218-217, I expect multiple special elections in 2023 that will cost $10 billion each each time the majority could flip. 

[Gengs1 2583]

He isn’t wrong 

No idea what the solution is but allowing the Rs to get Supreme Court always fucks the dems 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

8 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Sohrab Ahmari nails it. I’m glad the GOP didn’t get their red wave with peddling the same crap. The transformation to the type of party that I’m looking for hasn’t happened yet because of the zombie GOP playbook that idiots still peddle. This country desperately needs a new party to replace the GOP. Post-liberals like myself don’t have a home.

 

Thanks for posting. Good write-up on the contradictions and failures of the GOP as the transition from the party of capitalism and the wealthy to the working class. And they seemingly decline to accept all working class people. You have $75K in student loans but only earn $30K? we don't want to help you out of that student loan mess. In fact, we will probably laugh at you.

 

[Dahobbs 17625]

8 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Lulz, when has the Republican Party been about helping American workers?

More lulz at Macklemore being some sort of "post-liberal". 

[Js1 85416]

We will get some red-friendly drops in the morning/afternoon and the presumably Big Dem dumps in the evening.

 

[C-Man 27230]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

At no point in my cycle of predictions did I have "Lauren Boebert's seat is potentially the one to decide the House majority for 2023" on my bingo card

Which means this timeline is only going to get more wild.

If it ends up being 218-217, I expect multiple special elections in 2023 that will cost $10 billion each each time the majority could flip. 

Holy shit, does it really like it's going wind up falling 218-217 in either direction, hinging on the Frisch-Boebert race? What a fun one-two it would be for Boebert to lose her seat and McCarthy lose the Speaker spot in one fell swoop.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Holy shit, does it really like it's going wind up falling 218-217 in either direction, hinging on the Frisch-Boebert race? What a fun one-two it would be for Boebert to lose her seat and McCarthy lose the Speaker spot in one fell swoop.

Might be the second time Boebert fucked McCarthy.

[C-Man 27230]

5 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

He isn’t wrong 

No idea what the solution is but allowing the Rs to get Supreme Court always fucks the dems 

Perhaps but we cannot discount the importance of Fetterman beating Oz in Penn and I heard that race cost like $300M+, which is absolutely staggering.

[Brian Fantana 6689]

23 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Post-liberals like myself don’t have a home.

You misspelled psychotic meth head freaks

[The Dog 44063]

 

[Js1 85416]

4 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Holy shit, does it really like it's going wind up falling 218-217 in either direction, hinging on the Frisch-Boebert race? What a fun one-two it would be for Boebert to lose her seat and McCarthy lose the Speaker spot in one fell swoop.

 

Personally, I don't see 218-217 as likely, but it's theoretically possible.  I think it'll be more like 220-215, with +/- 1 on each side.

Dems would have to sweep AZ-01, CO-03, most of the California races (13, 22, 27, 41), the two Washington races and one or two of the Oregon seats.

[Dr. Teeth 5845]

3 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Perhaps but we cannot discount the importance of Fetterman beating Oz in Penn and I heard that race cost like $300M+, which is absolutely staggering.

The numbers are there at the start of each race to figure out where to put the money. You can add to places if a candidate does well or a there is a national swing. But having Dems across the county pour money into impossible to win races because you hate McConnell or Paul is stupid. Those guys get primaried not beat in a statewide election unless something crazy happens. 

[Queen Bitch 1692]

Massive dumps, baybeeeeeee

[gmr548 16580]

 
 
 

I swear to God if this seat ends up the tipping point

[Bateshorn 9928]

1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

Yeah, but ...

Short of getting to 52, the Dems are still going to be held hostage by these two.  

Ruben Gallego, please come to the courtesy phone. Rueben Gallego, please come to the courtesy phone…

[cactusflinthead 27601]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Gallego starting his primary challenge

[Dahobbs 17625]

14 minutes ago, Dr. Teeth said:

The numbers are there at the start of each race to figure out where to put the money. You can add to places if a candidate does well or a there is a national swing. But having Dems across the county pour money into impossible to win races because you hate McConnell or Paul is stupid. Those guys get primaried not beat in a statewide election unless something crazy happens. 

It actually seems like a better strategy for dems would be to pour tons of money into all the other little races in red states. Benefits are that money is less likely to be wasted overall because those down ballot races can be more easily affected and because you're spreading the money over a larger number of races. And second, there may actually be a reverse coat-tail effect where the down ballot races actually have a positive affect on the top of the ticket. 

[Js1 85416]

Not really in doubt that the Alaska Senate race was going to go to RCV - date is the 23rd apparently

Trump endorsed Republican Tshibaka is at 44%, incumbent and MAGA-enemy Murkowski is at 43% and the Democrat is at 10%

In a perfect world, all those Dems put Murkowski second on their ballot, which should propel Murkowski over 50%.  That is what is *expected* to happen, as that is what Dems and moderate Republicans campaigned on doing "moderate GOP put Murkowski first in the Senate race but countered by ranking Peltola second on their House ballot and Dems put Chesboro first and Murkowski second"

Murkowski is the better choice any day over Tshibaka.  

Edited November 10, 2022 by Js1

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

At no point in my cycle of predictions did I have "Lauren Boebert's seat is potentially the one to decide the House majority for 2023" on my bingo card

Which means this timeline is only going to get more wild.

If it ends up being 218-217, I expect multiple special elections in 2023 that will cost $10 billion each each time the majority could flip. 

and it's going to be the thinnest of thin thin 90s heroin chic thin margin, so my posts about covid numbers not actually affecting anything might actually be so wrong that it changes the entire control of the house. 

[Js1 85416]

GoP iS rUnNinG aWaY wItH lAtInOs

[Js1 85416]

On 11/6/2022 at 3:49 PM, Humble Beast said:

53R/47D Senate

Rs pick up 25 seats in house

Unpopular President. Economic issues dominate all others. Ds pay.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

GoP iS rUnNinG aWaY wItH lAtInOs

Evan Smith tweeted this morning about border counties being more red than before.

[Voldemort86 2259]

It wouldn’t surprise me if the capitol riot hurt the GOP.  I know some folks who aren’t democrats who were totally disgusted by it.

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if the capitol riot hurt the GOP.  I know some folks who aren’t democrats who were totally disgusted by it.

[GenXer 2882]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if the capitol riot hurt the GOP.  I know some folks who aren’t democrats who were totally disgusted by it.

Everyone who’s not a mouth breathing moron should be totally disgusted by it

[Js1 85416]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Evan Smith tweeted this morning about border counties being more red than before.

Hidalgo, Webb, Starr and Willacy all saw GOP vote share go down.

Cameron and Zapata went up a tad.

It's a mixed signal, but one that continues the theme that Dems are recovering with Latinos outside of Florida and South Texas ,to an extent.  

The lack of competitiveness in Texas at the top of the ticket absolutely hurt, but Cuellar and Gonzales both won their seats, which indicate some strength, as Abbott was actually pretty sure they could win 3 of 4 border seats.  They only won the one they gerrymandered to be an auto-win.