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Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:12 PM, Mo Horn said:

If this does turn out to be true, I'm guessing the turnout in Georgia will be really low, and should favor Warnock. If there are 51 dems in the senate then Manchin loses a ton of his power. 

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Yeah, but ...

thumbs-down-sinema.gif

Short of getting to 52, the Dems are still going to be held hostage by these two.  

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:18 PM, Gap03 said:

Yeah, but ...

thumbs-down-sinema.gif

Short of getting to 52, the Dems are still going to be held hostage by these two.  

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True. Wouldn't surprise me if either of them decided to flip parties, or maybe go Independent. 

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:18 PM, Gap03 said:

Yeah, but ...

thumbs-down-sinema.gif

Short of getting to 52, the Dems are still going to be held hostage by these two.  

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She’s on thin ice because she’s very close to someone like Gallego starting his primary challenge

  On 11/10/2022 at 2:22 PM, Mo Horn said:

True. Wouldn't surprise me if either of them decided to flip parties, or maybe go Independent. 

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Unlikely. 

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Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:18 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

Wake and bake, Colorado. Time to send Lauren’s political career to the ferryman, without two coins. I’m sure she’ll pay him somehow. 

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Colorado, Nevada and Arizona all trying to outdo each other this year.  Time to break the classics back out ...

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Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:23 PM, Js1 said:

She’s on thin ice because she’s very close to someone like Gallego starting his primary challenge.

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I think a Gallego senate run is absolutely in the cards. 

Sinema is probably hoping that Lake pulls out the win - otherwise, she might need to stay out of crosswalks, away from windows, etc. in Arizona.   

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:23 PM, Js1 said:

She’s on thin ice because she’s very close to someone like Gallego starting his primary challenge

 

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That doesn't factor one bit into her thinking. She knows she cast her die already, and that she's going to get primaried by Gallego already. She's knows she'll be Tulsi Gabbard'ing it up here in a few years. She'll play into that avenue of her life, not work to cling to her Democratic position. 

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 1:32 PM, Chuckie Finster said:

 

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That's what it started looking like to me by yesterday morning.  With Rs going 0-2 in the last runoff when they actually had a chance to win the Senate, I can't see their enthusiasm/turnout being better this time.  Although I guess there will also be some dampening affect for Ds knowing that they'll have the Senate no matter what.

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:31 PM, WBT said:

That's what it started looking like to me by yesterday morning.  With Rs going 0-2 in the last runoff when they actually had a chance to win the Senate, I can't see their enthusiasm/turnout being better this time.  Although I guess there will also be some dampening affect for Ds knowing that they'll have the Senate no matter what.

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how much enthusiasm could their be for Repubs to get off their couch and go vote for that mouth breather Walker with no other races on the ticket? I think the Dems will get the Warnock vote to show up like they did 2 years ago. 

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:31 PM, WBT said:

That's what it started looking like to me by yesterday morning.  With Rs going 0-2 in the last runoff when they actually had a chance to win the Senate, I can't see their enthusiasm/turnout being better this time.  Although I guess there will also be some dampening affect for Ds knowing that they'll have the Senate no matter what.

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There will be more motivation for those who want to vote against Walker than those who want to vote for him, but the turnout will be really low

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Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:36 PM, Firemans4Horn said:

how much enthusiasm could their be for Repubs to get off their couch and go vote for that mouth breather Walker with no other races on the ticket? I think the Dems will get the Warnock vote to show up like they did 2 years ago. 

  On 11/10/2022 at 2:36 PM, Mo Horn said:
There will be more motivation for those who want to vote against Walker than those who want to vote for him, but the turnout will be really low

There’s some potential truth in the last point, but I’d also note that a runoff is where the democrats really get an advantage out of now being the party of more educated voters.
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Posted

Sohrab Ahmari nails it. I’m glad the GOP didn’t get their red wave with peddling the same crap. The transformation to the type of party that I’m looking for hasn’t happened yet because of the zombie GOP playbook that idiots still peddle. This country desperately needs a new party to replace the GOP. Post-liberals like myself don’t have a home.

 

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Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:50 PM, gmr548 said:

 


There’s some potential truth in the last point, but I’d also note that a runoff is where the democrats really get an advantage out of now being the party of more educated voters.

 

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100% this

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 11:58 AM, Clintonaldo said:

The only race I care about it Lake losing Arizona. I cannot believe people in good conscience can vote for her. 

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We really, really need Finchem to go down in the SOS race. He's a full-blown MAGA/election denier who will make things fucky in the 2024 Presidential Election if he's in office.

 

  On 11/10/2022 at 12:53 PM, Celery Man said:

Holy shit is that true?

 

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Posted (edited)
  On 11/10/2022 at 3:12 PM, C-Man said:

We really, really need Finchem to go down in the SOS race. He's a full-blown MAGA/election denier who will make things fucky in the 2024 Presidential Election if he's in office.

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@Zonahorn is more optimistic than I am but I see Lake/Kelly/Fontes as the most likely outcome 

Kelly and Fontes are running neck and neck right now with Hobbs behind them. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted (edited)
  On 11/10/2022 at 3:09 PM, Macklemore said:

Sohrab Ahmari nails it. I’m glad the GOP didn’t get their red wave with peddling the same crap. The transformation to the type of party that I’m looking for hasn’t happened yet because of the zombie GOP playbook that idiots still peddle. This country desperately needs a new party to replace the GOP. Post-liberals like myself don’t have a home.

 

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Lulz, when has the Republican Party been about helping American workers?

 

please list legislation that helped the American workers that were sponsored and approved by republicans?

Edited by Gengs1
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Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 3:20 PM, Gengs1 said:

 

 

 

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At no point in my cycle of predictions did I have "Lauren Boebert's seat is potentially the one to decide the House majority for 2023" on my bingo card

Which means this timeline is only going to get more wild.

If it ends up being 218-217, I expect multiple special elections in 2023 that will cost $10 billion each each time the majority could flip. 

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 3:09 PM, Macklemore said:

Sohrab Ahmari nails it. I’m glad the GOP didn’t get their red wave with peddling the same crap. The transformation to the type of party that I’m looking for hasn’t happened yet because of the zombie GOP playbook that idiots still peddle. This country desperately needs a new party to replace the GOP. Post-liberals like myself don’t have a home.

 

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Thanks for posting. Good write-up on the contradictions and failures of the GOP as the transition from the party of capitalism and the wealthy to the working class. And they seemingly decline to accept all working class people. You have $75K in student loans but only earn $30K? we don't want to help you out of that student loan mess. In fact, we will probably laugh at you.

 

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Posted

We will get some red-friendly drops in the morning/afternoon and the presumably Big Dem dumps in the evening.

 

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 3:24 PM, Js1 said:

At no point in my cycle of predictions did I have "Lauren Boebert's seat is potentially the one to decide the House majority for 2023" on my bingo card

Which means this timeline is only going to get more wild.

If it ends up being 218-217, I expect multiple special elections in 2023 that will cost $10 billion each each time the majority could flip. 

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Holy shit, does it really like it's going wind up falling 218-217 in either direction, hinging on the Frisch-Boebert race? What a fun one-two it would be for Boebert to lose her seat and McCarthy lose the Speaker spot in one fell swoop.

missed-kick-kick.gif

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Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 3:25 PM, Gengs1 said:

He isn’t wrong 

No idea what the solution is but allowing the Rs to get Supreme Court always fucks the dems 

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Perhaps but we cannot discount the importance of Fetterman beating Oz in Penn and I heard that race cost like $300M+, which is absolutely staggering.

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 3:29 PM, C-Man said:

Holy shit, does it really like it's going wind up falling 218-217 in either direction, hinging on the Frisch-Boebert race? What a fun one-two it would be for Boebert to lose her seat and McCarthy lose the Speaker spot in one fell swoop.

 

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Personally, I don't see 218-217 as likely, but it's theoretically possible.  I think it'll be more like 220-215, with +/- 1 on each side.

Dems would have to sweep AZ-01, CO-03, most of the California races (13, 22, 27, 41), the two Washington races and one or two of the Oregon seats.

Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 3:32 PM, C-Man said:

Perhaps but we cannot discount the importance of Fetterman beating Oz in Penn and I heard that race cost like $300M+, which is absolutely staggering.

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The numbers are there at the start of each race to figure out where to put the money. You can add to places if a candidate does well or a there is a national swing. But having Dems across the county pour money into impossible to win races because you hate McConnell or Paul is stupid. Those guys get primaried not beat in a statewide election unless something crazy happens. 

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Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 2:18 PM, Gap03 said:

Yeah, but ...

thumbs-down-sinema.gif

Short of getting to 52, the Dems are still going to be held hostage by these two.  

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Ruben Gallego, please come to the courtesy phone. Rueben Gallego, please come to the courtesy phone…

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Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 3:40 PM, Dr. Teeth said:

The numbers are there at the start of each race to figure out where to put the money. You can add to places if a candidate does well or a there is a national swing. But having Dems across the county pour money into impossible to win races because you hate McConnell or Paul is stupid. Those guys get primaried not beat in a statewide election unless something crazy happens. 

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It actually seems like a better strategy for dems would be to pour tons of money into all the other little races in red states. Benefits are that money is less likely to be wasted overall because those down ballot races can be more easily affected and because you're spreading the money over a larger number of races. And second, there may actually be a reverse coat-tail effect where the down ballot races actually have a positive affect on the top of the ticket. 

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Posted (edited)

Not really in doubt that the Alaska Senate race was going to go to RCV - date is the 23rd apparently

Trump endorsed Republican Tshibaka is at 44%, incumbent and MAGA-enemy Murkowski is at 43% and the Democrat is at 10%

In a perfect world, all those Dems put Murkowski second on their ballot, which should propel Murkowski over 50%.  That is what is *expected* to happen, as that is what Dems and moderate Republicans campaigned on doing "moderate GOP put Murkowski first in the Senate race but countered by ranking Peltola second on their House ballot and Dems put Chesboro first and Murkowski second"

Murkowski is the better choice any day over Tshibaka.  

Edited by Js1
Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 3:24 PM, Js1 said:

At no point in my cycle of predictions did I have "Lauren Boebert's seat is potentially the one to decide the House majority for 2023" on my bingo card

Which means this timeline is only going to get more wild.

If it ends up being 218-217, I expect multiple special elections in 2023 that will cost $10 billion each each time the majority could flip. 

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and it's going to be the thinnest of thin thin 90s heroin chic thin margin, so my posts about covid numbers not actually affecting anything might actually be so wrong that it changes the entire control of the house. 

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Posted
  On 11/10/2022 at 4:12 PM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Evan Smith tweeted this morning about border counties being more red than before.

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Hidalgo, Webb, Starr and Willacy all saw GOP vote share go down.

Cameron and Zapata went up a tad.

It's a mixed signal, but one that continues the theme that Dems are recovering with Latinos outside of Florida and South Texas ,to an extent.  

The lack of competitiveness in Texas at the top of the ticket absolutely hurt, but Cuellar and Gonzales both won their seats, which indicate some strength, as Abbott was actually pretty sure they could win 3 of 4 border seats.  They only won the one they gerrymandered to be an auto-win. 



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