2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[Snake Diggity 4625]

51-49 D Senate with 220-215 R House is just about best case realistic scenario.  Only need to find 3 sane Republicans in order to be able to pass everything needed to keep the lights on.

By 2024 there’s a good chance inflation will be <3% and unemployment will still be <6%, making for a better environment for Dems, which they’ll need since the senate races coming up look bad for them.

[Bojack 2081]

1 hour ago, G650 said:

I think someone needs to do a wellness check on Incredulity.

I suck at gifs. Tanner is saying, "He's not dead. He's drunk."

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

29 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If the House can stay within 5-7 seats, McCarthy will struggle to get much done. Every GOP sub-group will attempt to extract something from McCarthy on each vote but he doesn’t have the power to give anything.

we also might discover a few more mavericks in the GOP side that have stayed quiet because there was no value in rocking the boat.

There’s going to be votes where McCarthy will have to ask for Dem support.

 

You can tell some of the Republicans are making a push to bring the party back to sanity right now too. It’ll be interesting to see if they win.  There’s that one guy who said the voters are saying let’s fix policy later let’s fix crazy now. Crenshaw in Houston saying that everybody knew the stolen vote theme was a lie.

Edited November 11, 2022 by BehoId, The Underminer!

[Dahobbs 17545]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

You can tell some of the Republicans are making a push to bring the party back to sanity right now too. It’ll be interesting to see if they win.  There’s that one guy who said the voters are saying let’s fix policy later let’s fix crazy now. Crenshaw in Houston saying that everybody knew the stolen food theme was a lie.

Stolen food theme? What is that in reference to?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Stolen food theme? What is that in reference to?

Typo. Voice to text from a mumbler. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by BehoId, The Underminer!

[Js1 85353]

Looks like Clark will drop 35k mail in ballots today as part of the count. If CCM wins 60%, as has been, it will totally wipe out Laxalt’s lead. She may take the lead today between those 35k + what’s left in Washoe

Even after that, there’s still another 20k+ Clark ballots. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Shame Boebart escaped.  I’d wonder if she’d consider refining her image if I believed she was capable of thoughts at that level.  

[Voldemort86 2259]

15 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

You can tell some of the Republicans are making a push to bring the party back to sanity right now too. It’ll be interesting to see if they win.  There’s that one guy who said the voters are saying let’s fix policy later let’s fix crazy now. Crenshaw in Houston saying that everybody knew the stolen vote theme was a lie.

Funny that it takes them several years to figure something out that democrats and independents knew was bullshit all along.

[Js1 85353]

This is why no one can call the House yet. Quite a few races can change in California. Dems are looking at CA-22, 27 and 41 as pickup opportunities 

 

[A-Tex Devil 2446]

8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Funny that it takes them several years to figure something out that democrats and independents knew was bullshit all along.

Most knew it was bullshit, but it was useful bullshit until they lost control of it.  

[Js1 85353]

30 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Shame Boebart escaped.  I’d wonder if she’d consider refining her image if I believed she was capable of thoughts at that level.  

Better chance of Sark learning to coach a competent second half on the road than this happening 

[tbone_ 14127]

Most knew it was bullshit, but it was useful bullshit until they lost control of it.  

Most I know seem to view it the same way they viewed hiring pornstar hookers and they paying them to keep quiet - whatever it takes to get someone in who’ll stop these damn liberals from ruining my country.

[hpslugga 4062]

37 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

You can tell some of the Republicans are making a push to bring the party back to sanity right now too. It’ll be interesting to see if they win.  There’s that one guy who said the voters are saying let’s fix policy later let’s fix crazy now. Crenshaw in Houston saying that everybody knew the stolen vote theme was a lie.

Go back and look where they were the day before Trump announced his candidacy in 2015 and tell me that lot qualified as "sane." Trump was an outlier, but only slightly and only in style. In terms of substance, there's very little that separates him from even a John Kasich. The GQP is still, as Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein put it back in 2012:

"an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.

When one party moves this far from the mainstream, it makes it nearly impossible for the political system to deal constructively with the country’s challenges.

“Both sides do it” or “There is plenty of blame to go around” are the traditional refuges for an American news media intent on proving its lack of bias, while political scientists prefer generality and neutrality when discussing partisan polarization. Many self-styled bipartisan groups, in their search for common ground, propose solutions that move both sides to the center, a strategy that is simply untenable when one side is so far out of reach.

It is clear that the center of gravity in the Republican Party has shifted sharply to the right. Its once-legendary moderate and center-right legislators in the House and the Senate — think Bob Michel, Mickey Edwards, John Danforth, Chuck Hagel — are virtually extinct."

And bear in mind, they wrote that article in April of 2012, when hardly anyone noticed the one-issue clown car of a campaign the Orange Douchebag briefly ran. The insanity of the GQP pre-dates Trump and Trumpism. These are not your pre-Nixon's-2nd-term republicans. Now, if you want to say that the R's who did well in the midterms are "more sane" than the Trumpists, that's fine. Just understand that's like arguing who the nicest guy in prison is. It's like...it's like...Ted Bundy meeting with Jeff Dahmer and Bundy says "wait, you rape them and eat them after they're dead? YOU'RE SICK!!!"

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

Go back and look where they were the day before Trump announced his candidacy in 2015 and tell me that lot qualified as "sane." Trump was an outlier, but only slightly and only in style. In terms of substance, there's very little that separates him from even a John Kasich. The GQP is still, as Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein put it back in 2012:

"an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.

When one party moves this far from the mainstream, it makes it nearly impossible for the political system to deal constructively with the country’s challenges.

“Both sides do it” or “There is plenty of blame to go around” are the traditional refuges for an American news media intent on proving its lack of bias, while political scientists prefer generality and neutrality when discussing partisan polarization. Many self-styled bipartisan groups, in their search for common ground, propose solutions that move both sides to the center, a strategy that is simply untenable when one side is so far out of reach.

It is clear that the center of gravity in the Republican Party has shifted sharply to the right. Its once-legendary moderate and center-right legislators in the House and the Senate — think Bob Michel, Mickey Edwards, John Danforth, Chuck Hagel — are virtually extinct."

And bear in mind, they wrote that article in April of 2012, when hardly anyone noticed the one-issue clown car of a campaign the Orange Douchebag briefly ran. The insanity of the GQP pre-dates Trump and Trumpism. These are not your pre-Nixon's-2nd-term republicans. Now, if you want to say that the R's who did well in the midterms are "more sane" than the Trumpists, that's fine. Just understand that's like arguing who the nicest guy in prison is. It's like...it's like...Ted Bundy meeting with Jeff Dahmer and Bundy says "wait, you rape them and eat them after they're dead? YOU'RE SICK!!!"

I’m not interested in defending the party, but Trump was a horse of a different color.  There’s a reason we (this board) believes he is the worst president in our history by miles. 

[MeerkatBong 115]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

51-49 D Senate with 220-215 R House is just about best case realistic scenario.  Only need to find 3 sane Republicans in order to be able to pass everything needed to keep the lights on.

By 2024 there’s a good chance inflation will be <3% and unemployment will still be <6%, making for a better environment for Dems, which they’ll need since the senate races coming up look bad for them.

This is an ideal situation as you describe above at this point. As a conservative I love a gridlock where change, if any, is incremental, and the stock market is stable and happy.

[Captainant 27678]

53 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Shame Boebart escaped.  I’d wonder if she’d consider refining her image if I believed she was capable of thoughts at that level.  

It's not over yet, there's a load of mail in ballots missing a date or that had a fuzzy signature that have until Saturday to be "cured" and counted

[Mdhorn 5949]

57 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Shame Boebart escaped.  I’d wonder if she’d consider refining her image if I believed she was capable of thoughts at that level.  

Like suddenly become smart?  Not going to happen because it can't happen.  There's not enough time to evolve for her in this lifetime.  

[chainsaw 9869]

6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's not over yet, there's a load of mail in ballots missing a date or that had a fuzzy signature that have until Saturday to be "cured" and counted

I'd like to hold onto this hope. But the gap is huge now. Has this one been Wasserman'd yet?

[Left Coast 863]

Oh MTG not gonna be happy about this new colleague:

Another election first: California sending first openly gay immigrant to Congress

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-11-10/long-beach-sending-first-openly-gay-immigrant-to-congress

 

[Js1 85353]

Just now, chainsaw said:

I'd like to hold onto this hope. But the gap is huge now. Has this one been Wasserman'd yet?

Not officially no 

[Mdhorn 5949]

15 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I’m not interested in defending the party, but Trump was a horse of a different color.  There’s a reason we (this board) believes he is the worst president in our history by miles. 

Back when Trump was accusing Obama of being a dictator, he was already thinking about becoming a dictator.  He really believes the president has that power.  After winning, he then befriended the absolute worst dictators in the world, that were not black because racist standards.  He is a wanna be but failed totalitarian.  

[Js1 85353]

2 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

Oh MTG not gonna be happy about this new colleague:

Another election first: California sending first openly gay immigrant to Congress

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-11-10/long-beach-sending-first-openly-gay-immigrant-to-congress

 

The new Vermont at large rep is a lesbian. I fully expect MTG to claim she was hit on by Maggie Balint 

[SubliminalHorn 6799]

36 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Better chance of Sark learning to coach a competent second half on the road than this happening 

Take that shit to the football board!

 

😉

[WBT 20580]

58 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Most knew it was bullshit, but it was useful bullshit until they lost control of it.  

It was never useful.  It cost them the senate last time.

[hobbes2702 13045]

34 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I’m not interested in defending the party, but Trump was a horse of a different color.  There’s a reason we (this board) believes he is the worst president in our history by miles. 

The only thing different about Trump is he says the quiet part out loud.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

You can tell some of the Republicans are making a push to bring the party back to sanity right now too. It’ll be interesting to see if they win.  There’s that one guy who said the voters are saying let’s fix policy later let’s fix crazy now. Crenshaw in Houston saying that everybody knew the stolen vote theme was a lie.

When the GOP takes the majority, I agree there will be a push by some to become a more sane House majority. But the relatively sane side will not even comprise 50% of the GOP.  When you have a slight majority, the extremes have all of the power, not the opposite.

McCarthy may even come across as sane and moderate but he won't have the votes to push that agenda.

[Js1 85353]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

When the GOP takes the majority, I agree there will be a push by some to become a more sane House majority. But the relatively sane side will not even comprise 50% of the GOP.  When you have a slight majority, the extremes have all of the power, not the opposite.

McCarthy may even come across as sane and moderate but he won't have the votes to push that agenda.

The Freedom Caucus are already posturing themselves as Kevin McCarthy’s worst enemy. 

[Foosters 17858]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

This is why no one can call the House yet. Quite a few races can change in California. Dems are looking at CA-22, 27 and 41 as pickup opportunities 

 

I'd be shocked if CA-27 didn't flip. 

[Js1 85353]

 

[texastough 1129]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

too perfect

[Dahobbs 17545]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Well, maybe now they will support ranked choice voting. Ha. 

[WBT 20580]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, maybe now they will support ranked choice voting. Ha. 

[Gengs1 2583]

Scary

 

 

[Gil Bang 25960]

 

My district. I actually saw Maryott standing on a busy corner waving the other day.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

Scary
 
 

If there’s anyone who had their finger on the pulse of this election, it’s anonymous Dem operatives who run to the media and downplay their party’s success.

[Js1 85353]

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

If there’s anyone who had their finger on the pulse of this election, it’s anonymous Dem operatives who run to the media and downplay their party’s success.

Like I trust any pollster after another garbage attempt to poll the election failed miserably 

[Pato del Muerto 52506]

Rs that matter, ie not the sloths that vote for him, knew all along that trump was bullshit. But after 2016 they thought it was winning bullshit. Took them 2 elections to figure out it isn’t. 
but now they have to figure out how to win elections without the sloths, continue the bullshit to keep the sloths engaged and on their side, use the power they have to change the rules so they can win elections by chicanery, or figure out how to win and hold power without winning elections. 

[chainsaw 9869]

9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Rs that matter, ie not the sloths that vote for him, knew all along that trump was bullshit. But after 2016 they thought it was winning bullshit. Took them 2 elections to figure out it isn’t. 
but now they have to figure out how to win elections without the sloths, continue the bullshit to keep the sloths engaged and on their side, use the power they have to change the rules so they can win elections by chicanery, or figure out how to win and hold power without winning elections. 

Yup. They overplayed the gift of Turd Sandwich and thought they'd struck political gold.

[Tuco 5076]

Like I trust any pollster after another garbage attempt to poll the election failed miserably 

What is your take on polling? To me, it looks like you were able to get a pretty good read on this election by reviewing the polls, analyzing them for validity, and figuring out which analysts to trusts. While that certainly equates to not trusting all polls at face value, the polling is still at the heart of it.

[Js1 85353]

6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

What is your take on polling? To me, it looks like you were able to get a pretty good read on this election by reviewing the polls, analyzing them for validity, and figuring out which analysts to trusts. While that certainly equates to not trusting all polls at face value, the polling is still at the heart of it.

Well I threw out the garbage (Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, Coefficient) - basically anything that was explicitly being disingenuous (like women being a tie or GOP winning 20% of black votes and 40% of the young vote).  Also any poll that had abortion near the bottom for issues - inflation/abortion were the top 2 issues, but the GOP and other pollsters tried to tell us it was about inflation/crime. 

My read was less on polls and more on the Special Elections post-Dobbs. Independents weren't breaking to the out party like they normally would.

We also saw a lot of pollsters overcorrect their samples from 2020 and assumed a more GOP turnout because that's what "normally" happens.  Their likely voter screens were very strict - i.e., you had to be a 9 or 10 in terms of voting intention, which missed a lot of people who were either a 6, 7 or 8 and showed up.  Post-Dobbs registrants were primarily young and female and definitely got left out of these screens because part of the screen is that you voted in previous midterms. 

Nothing really changed in terms of the environment from July/August to last Tuesday, other than junk right wing polls flooding the zone and confusing the pundits. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Js1

[Voldemort86 2259]

Fox News polling and Marist polling did a pretty good job this cycle. Trafalgar got embarrassed.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Voldemort86

[Tuco 5076]

I think there was also a bit of misleading smoke about Republican registrations. My guess is that had more to do with MAGA v “RINO” primaries where indies and Dems wanted a voice.

[Bateshorn 9928]

4 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

I don’t think the ga rs will show up to vote for walker. They showed up now voting against Stacy and for Kemp. Them showing up to vote for just Walker isn’t happening 

To be a bit rude:  A bunch of rural whites are not showing up to choose between two black men running for United States Senate. 

[Pato del Muerto 52506]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

To be a bit rude:  A bunch of rural whites are not showing up to choose between two black men running for United States Senate. 

Well when you put that fine a point on it…oof. 

[Dutchrudder 11139]

I like this guy so far, he might have potential for national elections.

[Js1 85353]

4 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I think there was also a bit of misleading smoke about Republican registrations. 

Yeah, it was a lot of ancestral Dems who haven't voted for GOP since 2008 finally flipping their registrations.  

[Js1 85353]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

To be a bit rude:  A bunch of rural whites are not showing up to choose between two black men running for United States Senate. 

That too.  I've said the dynamic favors Warnock for a few reasons:

• No Kemp on the ballot.  I have a feeling a bunch of "moderate" GOP who liked Kemp hit that box for Walker too because they just happened to be on the same ballot. 
• No Stacy - she's a bit more polarizing than Warnock.  No, I do not believe she "dragged" Warnock down (some will suggest that, I find it highly bullshit) - Kemp dragged Walker up. 
• Warnock is liked, Walker is not.  Why would someone take the time of their day to vote for a guy they hate, that has no real consequence, when there's nothing else to vote for on the ballot. 
• If CCM wins (which she will, I'm almost ready to bet money on it at this point), GOP has lost any path to retaking the Senate.  The GOP is already deflated because their supposed red wave was nothing but a pathetic trickle, and having no shot at the Senate - why bother? 
• What @Bateshorn said - rural whites aren't really going to show up for a black on black matchup with nothing else on the ballot.

The Dems are going to come up big for Warnock - Obama, Abrams, Harris and maybe even Biden will be out in force.  Get them to Atlanta and juice turnout for the Dems. 

[Queen Bitch 1692]

Also, when politely asked to stay away, Trump will absolutely show up to make the runoff about himself. That'll help bigly.

[Js1 85353]

2 minutes ago, Queen Bitch said:

Also, when politely asked to stay away, Trump will absolutely show up to make the runoff about himself. That'll help bigly.

The absolute worst thing he could do for Walker / best thing he could do for Warnock is announce his presidential run before/during the run-off voting. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

2 hours ago, hpslugga said:

Go back and look where they were the day before Trump announced his candidacy in 2015 and tell me that lot qualified as "sane." Trump was an outlier, but only slightly and only in style. In terms of substance, there's very little that separates him from even a John Kasich. The GQP is still, as Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein put it back in 2012:

"an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.

When one party moves this far from the mainstream, it makes it nearly impossible for the political system to deal constructively with the country’s challenges.

“Both sides do it” or “There is plenty of blame to go around” are the traditional refuges for an American news media intent on proving its lack of bias, while political scientists prefer generality and neutrality when discussing partisan polarization. Many self-styled bipartisan groups, in their search for common ground, propose solutions that move both sides to the center, a strategy that is simply untenable when one side is so far out of reach.

It is clear that the center of gravity in the Republican Party has shifted sharply to the right. Its once-legendary moderate and center-right legislators in the House and the Senate — think Bob Michel, Mickey Edwards, John Danforth, Chuck Hagel — are virtually extinct."

And bear in mind, they wrote that article in April of 2012, when hardly anyone noticed the one-issue clown car of a campaign the Orange Douchebag briefly ran. The insanity of the GQP pre-dates Trump and Trumpism. These are not your pre-Nixon's-2nd-term republicans. Now, if you want to say that the R's who did well in the midterms are "more sane" than the Trumpists, that's fine. Just understand that's like arguing who the nicest guy in prison is. It's like...it's like...Ted Bundy meeting with Jeff Dahmer and Bundy says "wait, you rape them and eat them after they're dead? YOU'RE SICK!!!"

The rightward drift of the GOP really was a case of a boiling frog.  It was so gradual that a lot of us who were Republicans didn't notice.  In fact, with Bush's talk of "compassionate conservatism" and his father's reconciliation to the New Deal programs, it seemed to some of us like the Party was going the other way.

But then Trump came along and turned the dial on the stovetop to "High," and a lot of us frogs jumped out of the pot.

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

When the GOP takes the majority, I agree there will be a push by some to become a more sane House majority. But the relatively sane side will not even comprise 50% of the GOP.  When you have a slight majority, the extremes have all of the power, not the opposite.

McCarthy may even come across as sane and moderate but he won't have the votes to push that agenda.

The House majority really is a poisoned chalice.  One may accuse me of pronouncing those grapes to be sour, but they really are fucking sour.  

In a House in which every Member is his/her own majority, you're right that it highlights the most extreme voices.  And as a Democrat, who do I want highlighted?  Primilia Jayapal?  Or Marjorie Taylor Greene?

It's not like either side is going to get anything done anyway.  But at least the Republicans will look extreme and incompetent while they're in the majority.