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2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

Js1

By Js1
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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

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Redistribute about 50k votes nationally and the Dems would have lost the senate.  Didn’t Biden really only defeat trump by 100k or so in key states? Thinking Dems are in good position for ‘24 is 100% wrong. And as today, the ‘24 senate races look horrible for democrats. They need to work to change that.

This. Although the only reason any of those election days for house, senate, or the presidency have even been close since maybe 2004 is because of gerrymandering and the outsize role of small states. Nationally, dem candidates have crushed the GQP in votes.

So 2024 will be a bonanza of voter suppression.
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Valmy77

Valmy77 13226

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Redistribute about 50k votes nationally and the Dems would have lost the senate.  Didn’t Biden really only defeat trump by 100k or so in key states? Thinking Dems are in good position for ‘24 is 100% wrong. And as today, the ‘24 senate races look horrible for democrats. They need to work to change that.

I mean if can just take some votes from someplace and use them elsewhere we would have won the Senate races in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida.

And yes 2024 looks really bad for the Senate...but so did 2020 and somehow that wasn't a disaster. We'll see what happens.

The Republican Party is a formidable and well funded political adversary. They are always going to be difficult to defeat.

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tbone_

tbone_ 14118

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If you wanted to do an actual you know democracy thing and make it easy for as many people to vote as possible (being that’s what democracy is all about and all) without the risks of mail fraud just open the polls at 6:00 am on Friday and close them at 5pm on Sunday.

I mean I get why that will never happen but it’s not that hard.

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bolverk

bolverk 29671

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1 hour ago, Gengs1 said:

I know hard to quantify, what are the thoughts of Covid deaths and costing Rs some seats?

 

1 hour ago, Dutchrudder said:

It's hard to say how many voters died for each party, but I never met an anti-vaxxer that was a Democrat. Some "libertarians" but the vast majority were Republicans who either don't trust science,the government, big pharma or think the COVID vaccine is The Mark of the Beast (not kidding). I am in Texas, so that probably skews my experience.  If those people died at a significantly higher rate, then it probably did cause a few seats to flip this year and will have ripple effects for years to come. I think it's fair to say it definitely had a negative effect on Republicans more so than Dems. 

 

The National Bureau of Economic Research found there was a statistically significant difference in death rates between Ds and Rs after the vaccine became available.

Abstract:

Political affiliation has emerged as a potential risk factor for COVID-19, amid evidence that Republican-leaning counties have had higher COVID-19 death rates than Democrat- leaning counties and evidence of a link between political party affiliation and vaccination views. This study constructs an individual-level dataset with political affiliation and excess death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic via a linkage of 2017 voter registration in Ohio and Florida to mortality data from 2018 to 2021. We estimate substantially higher excess death rates for registered Republicans when compared to registered Democrats, with almost all of the difference concentrated in the period after vaccines were widely available in our study states. Overall, the excess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points (pp), or 76%, higher than the excess death rate for Democrats. Post- vaccines, the excess death rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% of the Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess death rate). The gap in excess death rates between Republicans and Democrats is concentrated in counties with low vaccination rates and only materializes after vaccines became widely available.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30512

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52492

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1 hour ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Whatever it takes to make it harder for working class voters to vote.

Aren’t the working class the ones that are embracing trumpism?

things are flipping, the poor working class are all about the christofascism and 2a and freedoms that the Rs are shilling. 
 

and the white collar college educated are voting democrat now in support of womens rights and general democracy. 
 

The rich and very rich remain unchanged. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9927

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45 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

If you wanted to do an actual you know democracy thing and make it easy for as many people to vote as possible (being that’s what democracy is all about and all) without the risks of mail fraud just open the polls at 6:00 am on Friday and close them at 5pm on Sunday.

I mean I get why that will never happen but it’s not that hard.

I’ve said it many times: if part of your core platform is making it harder for people to vote, it’s because your ideas suck and people don’t like them.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45681

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12 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

The older people get, the more they believe a little bit more money is worth denying other peoples rights 

Seems to be the case.  WTF is wrong with people?  Is it just getting jaded by life as you get older?  Fuck everyone, I got mine?  It's so weird to me.

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tbone_

tbone_ 14118

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I’ve said it many times: if part of your core platform is making it harder for people to vote, it’s because your ideas suck and people don’t like them.

Agreed. But let’s be honest. Election Day has been during the day on a weekday for 177 years for a reason.
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48092

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12 minutes ago, Bookman said:

If the Texags politics board is any indication, then Republicans simply have no idea why they didn't do well this election. It's like they live in an alternative reality.

Oh, it’s like they live in an alternate reality? It’s just like that, is it? 
 

It IS that. They live in an alternate reality where they’re also a winning football program, dude. 

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Dr. Teeth

Dr. Teeth 5844

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5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Oh, it’s like they live in an alternate reality? It’s just like that, is it? 
 

It IS that. They live in an alternate reality where they’re also a winning football program, dude. 

I have a feeling a lot of them will be taking a long look in the mirror when they go 4-8. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

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10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The republicans won’t succeed in stopping early voting and vote by mail. The backlash would be too strong. They’re just venting their frustrations, but they won’t be able to do anything about it.

Republicans won’t succeed in outlawing abortion. The backlash would be too strong. 

How did that work out?

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11139

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Those age group numbers are relative to 2020 voting, right? So if it's -2 it doesn't necessarily mean +2 republicans, right? Wouldn't someone like McMullin in Utah running as a Indy distort the national numbers a bit? And aren't there lots of unopposed races that can also make those numbers misleading?

Need to see the actuals of 2022 vs 2020, and consider all those circumstances.

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Dr. Teeth

Dr. Teeth 5844

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7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Republicans won’t succeed in outlawing abortion. The backlash would be too strong. 

How did that work out?

Exactly. There are Rs that only want to end democracy as we know it. They are doing their best and people are acting like it isn’t happening. We got lucky this time. But they aren’t going to stop trying. Loses only make them want to succeed more. 

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