2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[Brisketexan 105123]

It’s not bad. It’s not good either.

But it’s fucking honest and real, and I appreciate that.

[David Dennison 18856]

48 minutes ago, RabidM said:

Thanks again New York.  Here comes 2 years of Hunter Biden laptop investigations and bullshit impeachments. 

Meh. 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

1 hour ago, RabidM said:

Thanks again New York.  Here comes 2 years of Hunter Biden laptop investigations and bullshit impeachments. 

Let them go after Hunter.  It hasn’t done shit for them so far, and I’d rather they waste their time on Hunter than a lot of other shit they could be doing. 

[henrygandorf 29190]

3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

that’s strange. she seems like she has so much depth. 

[Pods 7552]

4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

that’s strange. she seems like she has so much depth. 

It's the filter. 

[HenryJames 66048]

 

[troph 24789]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

 

Yeah you can when it’s the only place in the entire country besides Florida where this happened. Or maybe rural NY is anti-woke and knows the real truth about dark Brandon.

[Pato del Muerto 52492]

7 minutes ago, troph said:

Yeah you can when it’s the only place in the entire country besides Florida where this happened. Or maybe rural NY is anti-woke and knows the real truth about dark Brandon.

Sounds like we need to investigate massive voter fraud in ny state. 

[Valmy77 13226]

NY Democratic Party fucked up. Something local was obviously going on there.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

Your reminder that Hugh Hewitt remains a dumbass.

[Js1 85321]

3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

NY Democratic Party fucked up. Something local was obviously going on there.

A lot of infighting. Zeldin’s crime arguments were surprisingly strong as well. 

Also lends credence to the theory that blue states Dems didn’t feel abortion rights were under assault in their state, so they were less engaged. 

[ChiTownDoc 21152]

50 minutes ago, troph said:

Yeah you can when it’s the only place in the entire country besides Florida where this happened. Or maybe rural NY is anti-woke and knows the real truth about dark Brandon.

Nope.  

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

A lot of infighting. Zeldin’s crime arguments were surprisingly strong as well. 

Also lends credence to the theory that blue states Dems didn’t feel abortion rights were under assault in their state, so they were less engaged. 

This especially the top part imo.  

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

A lot of infighting. Zeldin’s crime arguments were surprisingly strong as well. 

Also lends credence to the theory that blue states Dems didn’t feel abortion rights were under assault in their state, so they were less engaged. 

I wonder if the 5 seats that flipped are in really crime ridden areas or did the scare tactic work on people living in safe places but were afraid the big, bad crime wave from NYC was going to come get them. 

[chainsaw 9867]

2 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I wonder if the 5 seats that flipped are in really crime ridden areas or did the scare tactic work on people living in safe places but were afraid the big, bad crime wave from NYC was going to come get them. 

I think it was mainly that the normal midterm turnout trends held: voters for the party in power not as motivated to show up. Whenever a base feels like "we got this" it bodes horribly for turnout. The NY state democratic party fatcats should be put out to pasture.

[Underdog 28623]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Sounds like we need to investigate massive voter fraud in ny state. 

I voted 9 times, I did my part. 

[Snake Diggity 4622]

Are there 5-6 sane GOP Reps who can prevent bullshit?  Who are they?

[Js1 85321]

Monday morning update from NYT:

• All but 1 Senate race has been called - Georgia will be going to a December 6, runoff.  Dems have picked up 1 open seat in PA and held all other seats. 
• 416/435 House races have been called.  GOP 212, Dems 204.  Outstanding House races:
  • CA-6: Dem leads 56-44 (expected Dem hold)
  • CA-21: Dem leads 55-45 (expected Dem hold)
  • CA-34: Dem vs Dem race, so Dem hold regardless
  • Alaska AL: Dem leads 47-27-24 and RCV runoff will be November 23 (expected Dem hold)
  • CA-9: Dem leads 56-44  (expected Dem hold)
  • AZ-01: GOP leads 50.1-49.9  (tossup, tilt R)
  • CA-13: GOP leads 50.1-49.9 (tossup, lean D)
  • CA-22: GOP leads 53-47  (tossup)
  • CA-27: GOP leads 55-45 (tossup, lean R)
  • CA-47: Dem leads 51-47 (tossup, lean D)
  • CA-49: Dem leads 53-47 (tossup, lean D)
  • CO-08: Dem leads 48.4-47.7 (lean D as its been called by several outlets)
  • ME-02: Dem leads 48-45 (lean D, as the Dem is expected to hold once the RCV is tabulated today)
  • NY-22: GOP leads 51-49 (lean R)
  • OR-06: Dem leads 50-48 (lean D, as its been called by several outlets)
  • AZ-06: GOP leads 50.3-49.7 (tossup, tilt R)
  • CA-03: GOP leads 53-47 (lean R)
  • CA-41: GOP leads 51-49 (lean R)
  • CA-45: GOP leads 54-46 (lean R)
  • CO-03: GOP leads 50.2-49.8 (lean R)
• All but 1 governor race has been called (Arizona) - Dems have netted 1 seat (won MD, Mass, but lost NV).  If Hobbs wins, Dems will net 2 seats. 

Dems won 20/37 tossup House seats so far, with an expected win total of 25/37.  They also won every likely/lean D seat and picked off 1 lean R seat (WA-03).  Dems also won 3 of the 4 tossup Senate seats so far, with GA going to runoff.   And Dems have also won 3/5 tossup Governor races so far, with one outstanding (AZ).  

The House race was lost by the DeSantis-mander (+4 for the GOP) and the destruction of the Hochulmander + NY infighting + Zeldin running a stronger race (+4 for the GOP).  That's half the flips so far. 

[Tuco 5076]

Are there 5-6 sane GOP Reps who can prevent bullshit?  Who are they?

In a 215/220 House you would only need 3 flips or 6 no votes.

While I really dislike the dude, Don Bacon (NE-2, Omaha) would be a likely target. NE-2 went Biden in 2020. While Bacon voted against the Trump impeachment, he said he thought Trump’s actions were wrong, but not illegal. (Bullshit, but at least acknowledging it wasn’t a perfect call.). He said he would probably not support Trump in a primary.

I could absolutely see him supporting an investigation into the Afghanistan withdrawal. He’s a former Air Force general.

[Valmy77 13226]

Ah ok. They have 20 outstanding seats with 19 left to call because they are giving CA-34 to the Dems because both the candidates are Democrats. That makes sense.

I was scrambling there thinking I had missed something being called overnight.

[Horn Dog 9844]

2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I could absolutely see him supporting an investigation into the Afghanistan withdrawal. He’s a former Air Force general.

I an all for a congressional investigation into the withdrawal from Afghanistan as long as we are able to subpoena Trump about his role in initiating it.

[Valmy77 13226]

1 minute ago, Horn Dog said:

I an all for a congressional investigation into the withdrawal from Afghanistan as long as we are able to subpoena Trump about his role in initiating it.

I am also pro-investigation. The Republicans are welcome to position themselves as pro-forever war.

[Js1 85321]

46 minutes ago, Tuco said:

In a 215/220 House you would only need 3 flips or 6 no votes.

While I really dislike the dude, Don Bacon (NE-2, Omaha) would be a likely target. NE-2 went Biden in 2020. While Bacon voted against the Trump impeachment, he said he thought Trump’s actions were wrong, but not illegal. (Bullshit, but at least acknowledging it wasn’t a perfect call.). He said he would probably not support Trump in a primary.

I could absolutely see him supporting an investigation into the Afghanistan withdrawal. He’s a former Air Force general.

Besides Bacon, there will be like 3 NY GOP in Biden seats + Mike Garcia in CA + Fitzpatrick in PA

Edited November 14, 2022 by Js1

[babysdaddy 2721]

Looks like pretty good outcome, all things considered.  Personally, I'm a bit embarrassed about Fetterman but looks like Warnock will walk in through the runoff.  So only one mentally disabled individual in the Senate.  The real maga idiots all rejected and Rs finally looking to kick the Trump habit, R's get the house (so no massive legislation packages will get through) in the slimmest possible way and Dems keep the Senate.  Divided government is the best government.

Props to Js1.  More accurate than any of the pundits I paid any attention to. 

[Js1 85321]

There’s nothing mentally disabled about Fetterman, but you do you bro 

[G650 14254]

11 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Personally, I'm a bit embarrassed about Fetterman but looks like Warnock will walk in through the runoff.  So only one mentally disabled individual in the Senate.

[Js1 85321]

Just now, G650 said:

Maybe he’s talking about Tuberville 

[babysdaddy 2721]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There’s nothing mentally disabled about Fetterman, but you do you bro 

Sure there is.  My mom had aphasia so recovery for him has peaked.  But you do you bro.

[SydneyCarton 48092]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Maybe he’s talking about Tuberville 

What, you don't want to talk about Louie Gohmert?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

1 minute ago, babysdaddy said:

Sure there is.  My mom had aphasia so recovery for him has peaked.  But you do you bro.

are you a physician?

[Js1 85321]

Also Dems did in fact have a turnout problem, but independents went for the party in power (doesn't often happen)

Evidence of that is Nevada - Dems are D+3 in registration and turnout was R+1, but CCM managed to flip that on its head and do 2 points better than turnout by winning independents at a huge margin. 

100% persuasion of undecided independents/soft Republicans and not juiced turnout among Dems.  

Edited November 14, 2022 by Js1

[babysdaddy 2721]

Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

are you a physician?

No, but I've spent multiple years speaking with neurologists about the very issue Senator Fetterman is dealing with. 

[Js1 85321]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

What, you don't want to talk about Louie Gohmert?

He's not in the Senate, and don't give the Texas GOP any ideas.

[Gengs1 2583]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also Dems did in fact have a turnout problem, but independents went for the party in power (doesn't often happen)

Evidence of that is Nevada - Dems are D+3 in registration and turnout was R+1, but CCM managed to flip that on its head and do 2 points better than turnout by winning independents at a huge margin. 

100% persuasion of undecided independents/soft Republicans and not juiced turnout among Dems.  

So dems got extremely fortunate this year and had rs run slightly better candidates it could have been a disaster but well take it

[SydneyCarton 48092]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

He's not in the Senate, and don't give the Texas GOP any ideas.

Jesus, not sure where that brain fart came from. 

[Js1 85321]

3 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

So dems got extremely fortunate this year and had rs run slightly better candidates it could have been a disaster but well take it

Yes.  Republicans ran a bunch of election deniers and extremists and totally negated their own midterm advantage. 

[Js1 85321]

Also the 7-7 NC map will be decimated in 2024, as the current map is just a "rental" map and GOP have majorities in the NC House and Senate and have the majority on the NC Supreme Court.  NC Congressional Maps are not subject to governor approval, so they're going to get wiped into something like 11-3. 

Dems *have* to reclaim the Biden seats held by Republicans in 2024 because NC alone might keep the House in GOP hands if not. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21195]

11 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

No, but I've spent multiple years speaking with neurologists about the very issue Senator Fetterman is dealing with. 

No clue if you're correct or not but, if you are, he's still >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Oz.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

5 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

So dems got extremely fortunate this year and had rs run slightly better candidates it could have been a disaster but well take it

But having those terrible candidates is the GQP's identity.  That's what its base wants.  That's what they voted for in the primaries.  It's like saying "that fat dude would probably be not so fat if he ate McDonald's less than five times a week."  I mean, ok.  But he knows that, and he doesn't care.  He wants his fucking Royale with Cheese, goddamn it, and he doesn't really give a shit about the consequences.

[Zonahorn 8079]

12 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

@Zonahorn How is the AZ state legislature looking so far?

Looks like 17-13 in the state house and Senate. Republicans gained a couple seats in both. Given the complete lunatics in the leg, that isn't ideal

[Js1 85321]

Just now, Zonahorn said:

Looks like 17-13 in the state house and Senate. Republicans gained a couple seats in both. Given the complete lunatics in the leg, that isn't ideal

Thank God for Hobbs and Fontes (if Hobbs wins). 

[tchookem 3900]

 

Yet they'll claim they don't *hate* anyone. They just don't want them voting... or getting married... or controlling their bodies... or getting insulin.

[Zonahorn 8079]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Thank God for Hobbs and Fontes (if Hobbs wins). 

Yes, that will keep a lid on it. Wendy Rogers being on the elections committee makes my skin crawl.

[Valmy77 13226]

32 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

So dems got extremely fortunate this year and had rs run slightly better candidates it could have been a disaster but well take it

I mean you could say this about every election. If the Democrats could also only run great candidates they would probably do better.

I don't really get the people who only show up for the Presidential election but not the midterms as if somehow only the President matters but there it is. I guess me having to suffer the existential pain of 18 months of non-stop Presidential election drama has some good impacts at least.

[hobbes2702 13033]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

Looks like pretty good outcome, all things considered.  Personally, I'm a bit embarrassed about Fetterman but looks like Warnock will walk in through the runoff.  So only one mentally disabled individual in the Senate.  The real maga idiots all rejected and Rs finally looking to kick the Trump habit, R's get the house (so no massive legislation packages will get through) in the slimmest possible way and Dems keep the Senate.  Divided government is the best government.

Props to Js1.  More accurate than any of the pundits I paid any attention to. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

This especially the top part imo.  

And it doesn’t help that that doofus Eric Adams is a cop and has been playing heavily into the hysterical crime messaging to get his cop buddies more cash.

[Old Freak Nasty 821]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Also lends credence to the theory that blue states Dems didn’t feel abortion rights were under assault in their state, so they were less engaged. 

The reverse could also be a factor.  Pro-choice Republics (probably a lot of suburban white women in these districts) feeling its safe to vote GQP as they don't feel abortion rights in their state are at risk and are not yet sufficiently scared that these fucks are coming for it federally at some point.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Old Freak Nasty

[ChiTownDoc 21152]

42 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

And it doesn’t help that that doofus Eric Adams is a cop and has been playing heavily into the hysterical crime messaging to get his cop buddies more cash.

Yes, agreed.  They definitely played themselves.  Self inflicted wound. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

59 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

And it doesn’t help that that doofus Eric Adams is a cop and has been playing heavily into the hysterical crime messaging to get his cop buddies more cash.

I couldn't agree with this more.  He's just terrible.

[deft 6845]

“Nah, I’d rather have tax cuts for Halliburton and Exxon. “
/40kyr Americans

[Zonahorn 8079]

Poetic justice

Edited November 14, 2022 by Zonahorn