2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[chainsaw 9,873]

1 minute ago, Zonahorn said:

 

That's a bad omen for Kari

[Brisketexan 105,203]

43 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That's a bad omen for Kari

Being born was a bad omen for Kari.  Her destiny was to become a walking soft-lit human shitstain.

[Js1 85,492]

If you allocate the non-Maricopa votes by what the county breakdown is, Lake would add approximately 33,500 more votes and Hobbs would add 41,200 votes.

This would put Hobbs up 32,500 votes. 

Maricopa has 94,000 votes.  If they go 55/45 for Lake, she loses by 22k votes.  If they go 60/40, she loses by 13,600.  If they go 65/35, she loses by 4200 votes.

She needs every county, including Pima, to give her a bigger vote share than they already are AND win the remaining Maricopa votes with 60+%

There's 25k votes left in Lake counties and 49k left in Hobbs counties, not including Maricopa.  The math for Lake looks like the math for House Democrats - not impossible, but divine intervention is needed. 

[Js1 85,492]

McCarthy ain't going to be Speaker if he's already searching for conservaDems who can help him. 

[Goredho 17,413]

Take this with a few thousand grains of salt, but...
 

Covid Deaths Probably Cost Republicans the Midterms

November 14, 2022 at 12:51 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 146 Comments

Jonathan Last: “So again, lots of factors were at play. Including one that doesn’t get talked about much: excess Covid deaths. There’s been an ongoing study of the Republican resistance to the Covid vaccines and the preliminary findings suggest that post-vaccine, Republicans accounted for about 80 percent more of the excess deaths than Democrats. Part of this is because of vaccine hesitancy; part of it is because of the age profile of voters.”

“I’m not going to burden you with the math here, but if you want to read up on it, the data is quite striking, all the way to the county level.”

“To take just one example: between January 2021 and this month, 9,400 people in Nevada died of Covid. The data suggests that the majority of these people would have been Republican voters. Keep that number in mind.”

https://politicalwire.com/2022/11/14/covid-deaths-probably-cost-republicans-the-midterms/

[chainsaw 9,873]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

McCarthy ain't going to be Speaker if he's already searching for conservaDems who can help him. 

what a fucking snake

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,883]

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Take this with a few thousand grains of salt, but...
 

Covid Deaths Probably Cost Republicans the Midterms

November 14, 2022 at 12:51 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 146 Comments

Jonathan Last: “So again, lots of factors were at play. Including one that doesn’t get talked about much: excess Covid deaths. There’s been an ongoing study of the Republican resistance to the Covid vaccines and the preliminary findings suggest that post-vaccine, Republicans accounted for about 80 percent more of the excess deaths than Democrats. Part of this is because of vaccine hesitancy; part of it is because of the age profile of voters.”

“I’m not going to burden you with the math here, but if you want to read up on it, the data is quite striking, all the way to the county level.”

“To take just one example: between January 2021 and this month, 9,400 people in Nevada died of Covid. The data suggests that the majority of these people would have been Republican voters. Keep that number in mind.”

https://politicalwire.com/2022/11/14/covid-deaths-probably-cost-republicans-the-midterms/

Ok, someone walk me through the math here. I don't know why they put things in terms of a multiplier of itself, but when they say R's died at 80% higher rate than D's, does it simply boil down to out of 100 deaths, ~65R, 35D? Is that correct? My math skills get fucky around ratios and percentages.

[Goredho 17,413]

10 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Ok, someone walk me through the math here. I don't know why they put things in terms of a multiplier of itself, but when they say R's died at 80% higher rate than D's, does it simply boil down to out of 100 deaths, ~65R, 35D? Is that correct? My math skills get fucky around ratios and percentages.

Yeah, I'm not sure their math works.  Also assumptions that all 9,400 dead people would have voted, that all 9,400 would have been straight ticket voters, etc...  I think its a click-baity headline without much statistical veracity.  So of course, I'm forwarding it to all my MAGA anti-mask family members.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Goredho

[YGIFS 19,452]

48 minutes ago, Js1 said:

McCarthy ain't going to be Speaker if he's already searching for conservaDems who can help him. 

Yeah, I know shit like this goes on behind the scenes.  But they're not even done counting votes just 5 full days after the election and Trump hasn't even made his batshit crazy re-emergence speech yet and they're  already down the list to the Hispanic Democrats on conversion attempts?  Shit, at this rate, McCarthy will be calling openly gay Native American Davids and AOC by Friday to switch over. 

[tx 3 putt 77,282]

[Pato del Muerto 52,555]

32 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Yeah, I'm not sure their math works.

We’re in a post-fact world where the message is all that matters. 

[Js1 85,492]

3 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Yeah, I know shit like this goes on behind the scenes.  But they're not even done counting votes just 5 full days after the election and Trump hasn't even made his batshit crazy re-emergence speech yet and they're  already down the list to the Hispanic Democrats on conversion attempts?  Shit, at this rate, McCarthy will be calling openly gay Native American Davids and AOC by Friday to switch over. 

No doubt Nancy has called a few of the CA and NY GOP in Biden districts to either get their votes or find a compromise “moderate” GOP candidate that would get all 215/216 Dem votes, like Brian Fitzpatrick or something 

[TexEx15 17,564]

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

She’s got my vote!

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, Goredho said:

Take this with a few thousand grains of salt, but...
 

Covid Deaths Probably Cost Republicans the Midterms

November 14, 2022 at 12:51 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 146 Comments

Jonathan Last: “So again, lots of factors were at play. Including one that doesn’t get talked about much: excess Covid deaths. There’s been an ongoing study of the Republican resistance to the Covid vaccines and the preliminary findings suggest that post-vaccine, Republicans accounted for about 80 percent more of the excess deaths than Democrats. Part of this is because of vaccine hesitancy; part of it is because of the age profile of voters.”

“I’m not going to burden you with the math here, but if you want to read up on it, the data is quite striking, all the way to the county level.”

“To take just one example: between January 2021 and this month, 9,400 people in Nevada died of Covid. The data suggests that the majority of these people would have been Republican voters. Keep that number in mind.”

https://politicalwire.com/2022/11/14/covid-deaths-probably-cost-republicans-the-midterms/

Not ashamed to admit, but due to the anti masking and anti vaccine rhetoric, I didn’t feel bad for republicans who got the virus. Play stupid games win stupid prizes.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1,291]

53 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Ok, someone walk me through the math here. I don't know why they put things in terms of a multiplier of itself, but when they say R's died at 80% higher rate than D's, does it simply boil down to out of 100 deaths, ~65R, 35D? Is that correct? My math skills get fucky around ratios and percentages.

Yeah, basically. All of the studies that I have seen were comparing gross excess deaths within republican strongholds to those in democratic strongholds, though. Not registered R deaths vs registered D deaths. I'm inclined to believe that the ratio was actually greater than what those studies estimate, since the vast majority of these deaths were elderly people, and my experience (living in Kansas, granted) has been that elderly liberals seem to be unicorns we only read about. Also, elderly people vote like no other group of people, so I tend to believe that COVID deaths have helped the democrats considerably, not just in this election but also in 2020.

[YGIFS 19,452]

Amazing Keri Lake is tracking to lose Arizona by 30,000 votes.  By no coincidence, Arizona had 30,000 Covid-19 deaths...many preventable but for her "side's" shitty messaging.  

[Valmy77 13,265]

30 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Amazing Keri Lake is tracking to lose Arizona by 30,000 votes.  By no coincidence, Arizona had 30,000 Covid-19 deaths...many preventable but for her "side's" shitty messaging.  

Yeah well surely some of those people were non-voters or were Democratic voters. Viruses don't discriminate.

[Guest]

34 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Amazing Keri Lake is tracking to lose Arizona by 30,000 votes.  By no coincidence, Arizona had 30,000 Covid-19 deaths...many preventable but for her "side's" shitty messaging.  

I think the incredible part is that a television anchor was just 30,000 votes away from winning the highest office in the state. 

Say you were on a committee searching for a new CEO of a Fortune 50 company. Would you consider someone who has never even worked in the industry? It's like a football team hiring a head coach from a group of guys on a message board because they are able to talk about what the team "should" be doing.

My take is that a role in government is just like any other position in that it requires experience to be effective. I don't like the way Austin is run, but I'm sure as shit not going to run for mayor because I don't know jack about getting things done via the system.

[henrygandorf 29,194]

 

[Js1 85,492]

10 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I think the incredible part is that a television anchor was just 30,000 votes away from winning the highest office in the state. 

Not really. Being a politician is being media savvy. That’s a huge part of the modern job. Policy? Constituent services? PFFTH

[Macanudo 13,005]

12 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I think the incredible part is that a television anchor was just 30,000 votes away from winning the highest office in the state. 

Say you were on a committee searching for a new CEO of a Fortune 50 company. Would you consider someone who has never even worked in the industry? It's like a football team hiring a head coach from a group of guys on a message board because they are able to talk about what the team "should" be doing.

My take is that a role in government is just like any other position in that it requires experience to be effective. I don't like the way Austin is run, but I'm sure as shit not going to run for mayor because I don't know jack about getting things done via the system.

You're surprised that Lake is 30,000 votes away from the governorship when Jesse Venture, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump have all held high government office?   Not to mention Sonny Bono, Fred Grandy, Al Franken and Fred Thompson.

[Js1 85,492]

Just now, Macanudo said:

You're surprised that Lake is 30,000 votes away from the governorship when Jesse Venture, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump have all held high government office?   Not to mention Sonny Bono, Fred Grandy, Al Franken and Fred Thompson.

Madison Cawthorne was a rep because he was young, good looking, media savvy and "owned the libs."

He dropped out of college, had no policy vision or experience, no legitimate business experience, a whopping 18 months of part-time work at a district-level Representative's office and basically filed no legislation and ignored constituent work. 

And he would still be in office if he hadn't gone against the party bosses and aired dirty laundry. 

Republicans don't have to be qualified, competent or even be able to walk to be elected.  Kari Lake is an attractive woman with credibility from reading a teleprompter.   They ran a meteorologist in New Mexico for Senate in 2020 and Governor in 2022 because people think being on TV = credibility. He doesn't even have a meteorology degree, Troy Kimmell would laugh in his face. 

[henrygandorf 29,194]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not really. Being a politician is being media savvy. That’s a huge part of the modern job. Policy? Constituent services? PFFTH

especially in today's gop.  if you're already a celebrity than that's half (95%) of the battle.

how else are they going to get votes?  through ideas and policy positions?

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

33 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Yeah well surely some of those people were non-voters or were Democratic voters. Viruses don't discriminate.

They do discriminate.  They kill olds and those not wearing masks at a much higher rate.  So yes all 30k, no, but run those numbers across the whole country and it definitely hurt the R's.  Love to see it.  

[tbone_ 14,142]

Kari Lake is an attractive woman

Not even close to threesome worthy.

[Js1 85,492]

1 minute ago, tbone_ said:

 

Not even close to threesome worthy.

 

This website and its iterations had threads dedicated to FitLump. I won’t listen to you weird straight men 

[henrygandorf 29,194]

18 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

They do discriminate.  They kill olds and those not wearing masks at a much higher rate.  So yes all 30k, no, but run those numbers across the whole country and it definitely hurt the R's.  Love to see it.  

covid isn't over and neither is the flu.  the next 2 years will be more of the same with the olds and the college kids.  nothing is trending right for them, so expect a whole new suppression energy over the coming months.

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

covid isn't over and neither is the flu.  the next 2 years will be more of the same with the olds and the college kids.  nothing is trending right for them, so expect a whole new suppression energy over the coming months.

That and a lot of olds vote by mail later in life. They’re being told those don’t count anyway.  Gonna get ugly for these fools.  

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

covid isn't over and neither is the flu.  

Raises hand. I think there is one case of each in my house right now. I know Covid is one for sure. The kid has a bug that's put him on his butt, but it's not Covid.

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

3 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Ok, someone walk me through the math here. I don't know why they put things in terms of a multiplier of itself, but when they say R's died at 80% higher rate than D's, does it simply boil down to out of 100 deaths, ~65R, 35D? Is that correct? My math skills get fucky around ratios and percentages.

 

2 hours ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Yeah, basically. All of the studies that I have seen were comparing gross excess deaths within republican strongholds to those in democratic strongholds, though. Not registered R deaths vs registered D deaths. I'm inclined to believe that the ratio was actually greater than what those studies estimate, since the vast majority of these deaths were elderly people, and my experience (living in Kansas, granted) has been that elderly liberals seem to be unicorns we only read about. Also, elderly people vote like no other group of people, so I tend to believe that COVID deaths have helped the democrats considerably, not just in this election but also in 2020.

 

58 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

They do discriminate.  They kill olds and those not wearing masks at a much higher rate.  So yes all 30k, no, but run those numbers across the whole country and it definitely hurt the R's.  Love to see it.  

The real number of victims of Covid, particularly in red areas is not known. DeSantis fired health people for telling facts and stopped reporting unless they had to.

How many deaths due to Covid were reported as something else? That's the real question. Instead of looking at Covid death rates look at the overall deaths. Tease out what you can, but the +/- of a county. Like say Smith, Taylor, Throckmorton. We know it takes out people that are older with pre-existing conditions. 

I think it had an impact on the election. How much? Well, let's look at all the data shall we?

[Js1 85,492]

Maricopa is dumping everything tonight except cured ballots and provisionals. 

Pima is dumping half of their 48k 

[G650 14,273]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Kari Lake is an attractive woman

[Valmy77 13,265]

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Maricopa is dumping everything tonight except cured ballots and provisionals. 

Pima is dumping half of their 48k 

So I was curious which Congressional districts are in Maricopa County and apparently the answer is: all of them. Yeah as a city dweller in Texas I know how that goes.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Valmy77

[Texas73 421]

20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Maricopa is dumping everything tonight except cured ballots and provisionals. 

Pima is dumping half of their 48k 

Here's hoping they take a big dump on Kari Lake and end her bullshit political future.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

3 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

Here's hoping they take a big dump on Kari Lake and end her bullshit political future.

Ballots drop 8 central?

[Js1 85,492]

Hobbs gets 58% in Pima. So Lake now needs ~65% of the Maricopa drop 

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

 

[chainsaw 9,873]

27 minutes ago, G650 said:

slump buster

[Biff Tannen 45,701]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Hobbs gets 58% in Pima. So Lake now needs ~65% of the Maricopa drop 

lol

[Js1 85,492]

AZ-06 called for the GOP

[Brisketexan 105,203]

2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

It's like a football team hiring a head coach from a group of guys on a message board because they are able to talk about what the team "should" be doing.

That's a weird way to suggest me as Sark's successor, but you've convinced me -- I'M IN.  There is no question that I should be the Horns next football coach.   In fact, if I don't get the job, the selection process is clearly rigged, and I will have my devotees march around the stadium, playing mariachi music alternated with NOLA jazz on the trumpet in protest and prayer.

[Biff Tannen 45,701]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

That's a weird way to suggest me as Sark's successor, but you've convinced me -- I'M IN.  There is no question that I should be the Horns next football coach.   In fact, if I don't get the job, the selection process is clearly rigged, and I will have my devotees march around the stadium, playing mariachi music alternated with NOLA jazz on the trumpet in protest and prayer.

I mean, I feel like I could at least give the ball to Bijan more than 12 times.

[Clintonaldo 2,576]

I wish someone would put a bullet in this dumb bitch. She is trying to incite violence. Just another fucking loser following the playbook of a fucking loser. Shit like this makes it hard for me to consider voting R again. 

[Firemans4Horn 18,118]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

AZ-06 called for the GOP

early prognostication,

 

how do the statewide trends in Arizona and Georgia look for the 2024 presidential race?

[Brisketexan 105,203]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I mean, I feel like I could at least give the ball to Bijan more than 12 times.

Back off, fucker.  The coaching job is mine, it is preordained.  I prayed on it, with all of my prayer warriors, and the Lord decided that what Texas needs is a salty sailor who won't be controlled by the deep state.  Also, you are fake news.

[Biff Tannen 45,701]

9 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

I wish someone would put a bullet in this dumb bitch. She is trying to incite violence. Just another fucking loser following the playbook of a fucking loser. Shit like this makes it hard for me to consider voting R again. 

That's the final straw eh?

[LTbear 4,171]

12 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

I wish someone would put a bullet in this dumb bitch. She is trying to incite violence. Just another fucking loser following the playbook of a fucking loser. Shit like this makes it hard for me to consider voting R again. 

Are you talking in general or did she do something new today?

[Clintonaldo 2,576]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

That's the final straw eh?

I keep saying it after every new thing. 

3 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Are you talking in general or did she do something new today?

She appears to be turning up the rhetoric if that is even possible. 

[bluto 4,935]

They got the election officials out of the bldg ahead of the announcement.