2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[atomheartbevo 89775]

53 minutes ago, mchookem said:

i mean didn't she finally win?? wtf are they trying to accomplish?

Intimidation.

[atomheartbevo 89775]

56 minutes ago, mchookem said:

i mean didn't she finally win?? wtf are they trying to accomplish?

If that had been my house, I might have been tempted to say “I’m sorry I signed a non-disclosure agreement when I received the check, and I don’t want to be sued by Mr. Soros, so please leave or I will have to call FEMA to have you removed.”

[Js1 85494]

32 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I saw the gop officially clinched the house majority. I’m starting to get a little concerned, I was banking on them having only 218-220 seats. We’re still stuck at 206. 

CALM DOWN YOU GOD DAMN NANCY

They haven’t called ME-02 and AK-AL bc of RCV. That’s 2 more for Dems. They just called CA-06 for Dems. Dem should win CA-09/13/21/49. That’s 214. At worst we will be down 221-214 with an off chance at 220-215 or 219-216 depending on how CA-22 goes and ballot during/votes abroad in C0-03

And CA-22 said the only counting machine in Kern County broke so we might know the GA-Sen runoff winner before that race. 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Js1

[YGIFS 19452]

220-215.  It's going to be ideal.  A 1-2 vote margin, everybody holds the line.  7-10 vote margin, people predictably break off into set pacts.  3-6 vote margin, you get people getting some self-anointed delusional trips about themselves being the most important person since Manchin or Stuart Smalley.  You gonna see some wild shit.  There is so much fucking insanity yet to some on the GOP side.  This gone be fucking lit as fuck.  

The Main Street Republican Caucus (not MAGA-insane, though I know you guys think every Republican is a fascist monster, and that's fine...they deserve a bit of that) are the centre-right conservatives that make up a huge swarth of the GOP house membership.  Most Americans have never heard of them by design because they all clenched their assholes the last 6 years and shut the fuck up.  But they make up about 1/3rd of the GOP House.  They are already moving to modify the House committee calendar so that they can move ahead with some conservative budgetary/taxation/regulatory business before the MAGA insanity shit hits the fan and forces the House to spend all its time creating a human blockade around a defunct Circuit City in Bakersfield which supposedly still houses Hunter's laptop.  The freakshow has already started, let it happen.  Don't ffret about numbers quite yet.  That time will come when we have to sweat out votes and who is present and not voting and all that.  The DEMOCRATIC party should hang back for a moment, although do be sure to fuck with the Speaker election.  That part's gone be fun too.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Sorry if already linked.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Supposedly GOP is at 219 now. 

[Pods 7586]

23 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Sorry if already linked.

[StassneyHorn 6624]

I own half this site and I will delete most of you.

[Valmy77 13266]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Supposedly GOP is at 219 now. 

Well...guess we were expecting to lose anyway but it still sucks.

[Voldemort86 2259]

43 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Well...guess we were expecting to lose anyway but it still sucks.

I was hoping to keep them under 220, but looking doubtful. I think hopes for the house left a few days ago.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Anyone heard from Trafalgar?  Oh I guess they might release a Georgia senate poll soon.

[Gengs1 2583]

Sorry if been posted 

 

he really needs to be more engaged and early on, you can’t tell me this didn’t get ppl to go vote 

 

[TexasHooch 5125]

15 years younger than Trump.  Just saying.

[Js1 85494]

“They?” He must not know GA voting laws since he only moved back from Texas to run for Senate

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Huh, last I checked this one was losing.  Nice.

Quote

 

Oregon will be the first state in the nation to enshrine the right to affordable health care in its constitution. 

Ballot Measure 111 narrowly passed, with nearly 50.7% of voters in favor and 49.3% of voters opposed. The measure’s long-term impact on Oregon health care is unclear because it doesn’t prescribe how the state should ensure that everyone has affordable health care.

 

 

 

https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2022/11/15/oregon-will-be-the-first-state-to-make-affordable-health-care-a-constitutional-right/

[Valmy77 13266]

9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I was hoping to keep them under 220, but looking doubtful. I think hopes for the house left a few days ago.

I haven't had much hope for the House for about a year. Census years tend to favor the Republicans, midterms tend to favor the party out of power, the world economy sucks thanks to Covid and war. So yeah.

But it still sucks to lose. Especially since it was a few seats in New York of all places that probably sank us. After all that and it was some bullshit up in the North East that sealed it.

[Foosters 17869]

LA Times on CA races. Would be interested to hear @Js1's take. I am surprised that CA-27 stayed red after all the GOP bullshit over the last 2+ years.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-11-15/smith-faults-national-democrats-for-her-likely-loss-against-gop-rep-mike-garcia

Quote

“Our campaign got next-to-zero outside resources to fight this battle. In fact, I was fighting the institutional power of my own party from the outset of this race,” Smith said in a scathing series of remarks on Twitter. With no help on the airwaves and little elsewhere from Democratic Party committees and PACs, “we didn’t stand a chance.”

Smith is no different from scores of other candidates who believe victory would’ve been theirs if not for stingy support from Washington. But her unusually blunt remarks Sunday highlighted the stark turn of events in the campaign for California’s 27th District — a contest in which Democrats were expected to mount an all-out effort to oust incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia after he barely eked out a win two years earlier.

“This is a massive screw-up on their end,” said political consultant Brandon Zavala, who ran Smith’s 2020 campaign but did not work on this year’s race. “We’re looking here at a Biden plus-12 [district] that we’re about to hand to Republicans.”

 

Quote

Smith’s woes underscored a particular challenge for candidates running in the Los Angeles media market, where reaching voters via television can be prohibitively expensive. In a year when Democrats were playing defense all across the country, the party opted to stay out of Los Angeles’ broadcast market entirely — a decision that reverberated through closely watched congressional races.

In Orange County, Democrat Jay Chen was outspent by roughly $5 million, according to AdImpact, a firm that tracks television and digital ads, in his unsuccessful bid to unseat GOP Rep. Michelle Steel, who got millions of dollars of assistance from the House GOP campaign arm and allied outside groups. GOP Rep. Young Kim had around $500,000 more in advertising than her Democratic challenger, Asif Mahmood, whom she easily defeated.

Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who remains locked in a close contest with Republican challenger Scott Baugh in Orange County, also got no advertising help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, although her commanding fundraising meant she had plenty of funds to outspend her opponent. In Riverside County, Will Rollins, the Democrat who challenged incumbent Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, had a slight advantage on-air, but his unexpectedly narrow loss made some allies wonder whether more party help could’ve made a difference.

 

[henrygandorf 29194]

13 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Sorry if already linked.

i've heard people say, "vote as if your life depended on it", but this is more of a "live as if your vote depended on it."

[Nuge 1981]

22 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Upset of the year by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. She won because she talked about real issues. Her opponent was tinfoil hat wearing MAGAt. Well done. 

This is my district.  I voted for her.  Kent is a fucking psycho.

[Js1 85494]

1 hour ago, Foosters said:

LA Times on CA races. Would be interested to hear @Js1's take. I am surprised that CA-27 stayed red after all the GOP bullshit over the last 2+ years.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-11-15/smith-faults-national-democrats-for-her-likely-loss-against-gop-rep-mike-garcia

 

 

Christy Smith is a loser.  Lost in the 2020 special, lost in the 2020 general.

Sorry, two time losers tend to become three time losers.  She can blame national Dems all she wants, but once you get that stink on you, it's not coming off.

I've also mentioned that the DCCC (and most people) thought we'd be shellacked for 20-30 seats and were defending incumbents all over the country. A few people got triaged, for right or wrong, but that happens for both parties.  Specifically, the DCCC should have put more money into some of the CA races (27, 22, 41), the NY races (especially Maloney's district) and the AZ races. 

The Democrats relied on some strong statewide candidates, like Beasley, Ryan, Polis (who pulled CO-08 over the line), Whitmer, and Shapiro (Dems protected some seats in unfriendly territory in PA) to use coattails. 

The fact is, Dems were already playing defense in places like CT-05 and RI-02 - that's how bad the environment was.  In places where Dem statewide candidates performed well or overperformed (Patty Murray, Whitmer, Shapiro, Wes Moore, Hassan), they didn't have to spend as much money.  Places where Dem statewide candidates struggled, we didn't see any gains (Hochul, Beto, Crist).  A stronger performance from Hobbs might have pulled 2 seats over the line in AZ. 

And CA, NY, OR - just further proof that safe blue states had some very complacent Democratic turnout in 2022, compared to purple states (AZ, WI, MI, PA). 

Either way, there will be 15-17 Republicans sitting in seats that Biden won and only a few Dems in GOP seats (like Peltola and Jared Golden).  More that enough places to play offense in 2024.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Js1

[Js1 85494]

 

 

[The Dog 44097]

Democrats should be absolutely giddy right now (with work to do in Georgia).

Consider this was a midterm election with:

• Biden approval at 41.6% (from 538)
• The first (non pandemic) recession in over a decade 
• The highest domestic inflation rate since the late 70s/early 80s. 

Not only did the Democrats not lose many seats in the House, they are likely to GAIN a seat in the senate and flipped a few governorships and some critical state houses - including BOTH the state house and senate in Michigan. 

That's remarkable considering the environment. 

[Js1 85494]

Possible hope Lombardo will be Hogan/Baker/Scott type of GOP with a legislature that is near supermajority Dem forcing moderation. A competent transition team not full of extremists and unqualified partisans 

 

[Js1 85494]

Officially a Dem hold in a Trump district, again

 

[henrygandorf 29194]

might as well leave this here. 

 

[Js1 85494]

Porter and Levin get called tonight. That’s 211

Dem should win AK-AL, CA-47 and CA-13. That’s 214. GOP is leading, barely, in CA-13 but the outstanding vote should favor the Dem 

GOP at 218 and are favored in CA-03, so 219

CO-03 (Boobert) and CA-22 (Valadao/Salas) will decide if its 221-214, 220-215 or 219-216

Edited November 17, 2022 by Js1

[henrygandorf 29194]

are we on the right side of any redistricting?

[Js1 85494]

24 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

are we on the right side of any redistricting?

Illinois gerrymander was very effective.  New Mexico too. 

[Valmy77 13266]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Illinois gerrymander was very effective.  New Mexico too. 

Yeah. Hate to see that. But I get it. The stakes are high, hard not to. It is always an arms race and it is hard to unilaterally disarm.

Besides Illinois is always been the shady uncle of the blue state family.

Kind of sad you can gerrymander a three district state, but I guess that is all it takes.

Edited November 17, 2022 by Valmy77

[tx 3 putt 77287]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

are we on the right side of any redistricting?

Nevada house went pretty well too.  We need to end these bipartisan redistricting commissions because they just help republicans. Republicans just take what they can get in those states and screw over the dems as hard as possible in states they control.

if anything, we need to fight fire with fire if they’re not going to fight fairly.  There’s no reason Ohio should be 12-4 or 13-3 gop when the gop wins statewide races with less then 60% of the statewide vote. No reason North Carolina should be 10-4 after they jam the new map thru when they only win statewide races by 3-4 points.

[Bullneck 19196]

9 hours ago, Nuge said:

This is my district.  I voted for her.  Kent is a fucking psycho.

But he's a mate.  So what can you do?

[Voldemort86 2259]

Most likely outcome as of right now supposedly. I was hoping to keep them 220 or less, but still a good outcome in the house when you compare it to history.

[Degenerate Gardner 4085]

On 11/15/2022 at 1:04 PM, henrygandorf said:

twice in one page.

democrat is a noun, guys.  if you want to blend in, use it properly.

It doesn’t bother me. Pronouns have been a beating. Don’t make nouns taboo too. Then they’ll come after the adverbs and adjectives and

[Voldemort86 2259]

Can’t wait to crap on the latest Trafalgar poll. Can’t wait for them to release a Walker+5 Georgia poll. Bring it on

[Tuco 5077]

It doesn’t bother me. Pronouns have been a beating. Don’t make nouns taboo too. Then they’ll come after the adverbs and adjectives and

….conjunctions?

[Incredulity 11682]

 

[Js1 85494]

22 minutes ago, Tuco said:

….conjunctions?

What's your function

[YGIFS 19452]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13519]

15 hours ago, Js1 said:

Officially a Dem hold in a Trump district, again

 

Ranked choice voting kills divisive politicians that turn off 50% of the public. 

[SydneyCarton 48147]

34 minutes ago, Js1 said:

What's your function

I feel like this post should have been directed at Incredulity. 

[closetohumping 17456]

 

cross post

[Bozo_Casanova 26521]

Wait for it 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13519]

8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Wait for it 

 

It must suck to sit on boards that allow public comments. the concept of public comments is valid but only when the public has valid comments to make.

It's no surprise that little progress can be made in govt when they spend time being required to listen to the public.  And as a reminder, half of the public is below the median intelligence.

[atomheartbevo 89775]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It must suck to sit on boards that allow public comments. the concept of public comments is valid but only when the public has valid comments to make.

 

[Gengs1 2583]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Wait for it 

 

This should be really an ad, kids don’t do drugs or you will end up like this  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

And as a reminder, half of the public is below the median intelligence.

Don’t do that.  Don’t ‘well-actually’ George Carlin.  

[sidis 9832]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Wait for it 

 

you guys don't remember this dude?

 

@Goredho definitely has the skills to rock out a sequel.

Edited November 17, 2022 by sidis

[The Dog 44097]

10 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Can’t wait to crap on the latest Trafalgar poll. Can’t wait for them to release a Walker+5 Georgia poll. Bring it on

he's been hiding.