2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They also unlikely to have the votes for impeachment based on Hunter Biden stuff. Too many GOP in Biden districts looking to lay low and try not to make big waves before 2024 re-election. NY/CA GOP in Biden seats especially 

that'll be interesting to test.  i bet you're right, but I wouldn't bet a whole lot.

[jimmyjazz 46,206]

35 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Yeah, there is a real narrow window here for SCOTUS.  It’ll be hard to get anyone in in 2 years, even assuming a D president.  

That's why BIden needs to have a heart-to-heart with Sonia Sotomayor, who is 68 years old and a lifetime Type 1 diabetic.  We don't need RBG 2 Electric Boogaloo.

[Js1 85,599]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's why BIden needs to have a heart-to-heart with Sonia Sotomayor, who is 68 years old and a lifetime Type 1 diabetic.  We don't need RBG 2 Electric Boogaloo.

This.  Make her a promise that a Latina will go to her seat to continue that representation.  Someone like Monica Marquez, 12 years on SCOCO, is only 53 and also LGBT. 

It would make the GOP's head explode. 
 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Js1

[immamac 43,157]

45 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The hunter biden fauci witch hunts will backfire spectactularly. Normal americans are still the vast majority of voters and they don't reward that kind of behavior.

I honestly can't believe that trumps first impeachment has been downplayed so much when it has now become extremely obvious that he was definitely influenced by Russia on not giving Ukraine weapons for defense and for trying to meddle with our election. It's pure insanity that people forgot about his perfect call already. 

 

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This.  Make her a promise that a Latina will go to her seat to continue that representation.  Someone like Monica Marquez, 12 years on SCOCO, is only 53 and also LGBT. 

It would make the GOP's head explode. 
 

But the gays have aids so they die young. /Republican talking point 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This.  Make her a promise that a Latina will go to her seat to continue that representation.  Someone like Monica Marquez, 12 years on SCOCO, is only 53 and also LGBT. 

It would make the GOP's head explode. 
 

sounds catholic, so she checks that qualifier box.

[Storm the Field 5,302]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Warnock up 2.8 with 99% in. They basically nailed it

 

I love how, after getting laughed off the scene with their comically bad polls a month ago, Trafalgar decided to try and regain some street cred by releasing a last minute poll that just happened to line up perfectly with the polling average. Must have decided not to use their "Secret Hidden GOP Voter Formula" this time. 

[Js1 85,599]

Just now, Storm the Field said:

I love how, after getting laughed off the scene with their comically bad polls a month ago, Trafalgar decided to try and regain some street cred by releasing a last minute poll that just happened to line up perfectly with the polling average. Must have decided not to use their "Secret Hidden GOP Voter Formula" this time. 

As did Sean Hannity's Insider Advantage. 

Further proof they were absolutely cooking the books to craft a narrative that the GOP red wave was coming. 

DFP also must have made some changes, as their polling was very off all cycle too in favor of the GOP (as a left-leaning org) but this one was pretty spot on. 

[tokamak 6,442]

51 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The hunter biden fauci witch hunts will backfire spectactularly. Normal americans are still the vast majority of voters and they don't reward that kind of behavior.

It creates a general air of distrust around people. A big part of the reason that people don't like Hillary and that she lost in 2016 was thanks to endless investigations creating the perception that she's crooked. Even if it's all bullshit. People aren't following the details but they do see "oh, Hillary's being investigated AGAIN". They don't need (and it's not possible) to influence large swaths of people. But if they can get a few fence sitters, or infrequent voters, to stay home because "both sides are the same", that's good enough to win some close elections.

It also gives cover for investigations going the other way. Endless bullshit investigations take the shine off of real shit like Mueller. The "bOtH siDEs!!" crowd feasts on that shit because they're clueless to anything other than the headline.

[G650 14,278]

I think people have generally tired of the nonsense though, judging by the midterms.

[The Dog 44,157]

 

More shocking is Duluth and Suwanee going blue. 

ETA: oof

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by The Dog

[Js1 85,599]

31 minutes ago, G650 said:

I think people have generally tired of the nonsense though, judging by the midterms.

This. Candidate quality mattered a lot. The more milquetoast/less outright and loud crazy Republicans, like Budd and Lombardo, did well. The nut jobs like Oz, Walker, Masters, Lake, Laxalt, Buldoc got embarrassed.

Eventually screaming the quiet part out loud and flying banners and having a parade of your overt fascism/racism/sexism/homophobia was a bridge too far for many, it seems. An encouraging sign if it continues into 2024 elections 

[wildcat09 29,416]

Best part about last night:

 

 

[kevwun 15,926]

Manchin's leverage took a huge blow too.  If he causes too much of a stink on votes, Harris can just cast the tiebreaker.

[Valmy77 13,273]

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I’d like to see evidence of that. The argument could be made that the Dems are winning races only because of mistakes the GOP is making: bad candidates, Trump endorsements, Supreme Court row vs wade, etc. I also don’t know how far a progressive agenda can go without getting voter pushback from the independents. 

It seemed to me we were headed for a crushing defeat and then Biden started throwing some bones to the progressives and his approval rating went up, the Democrats got a bounce and then we lost the election in the House just barely but mostly due to local conditions in New York and Florida and we won it in the Senate. 

Getting those chip manufacturing jobs back here also might have played a role.

But politics is ultimately reading bones and tea leaves and trying to control what is ultimately a chaotic process. So I could be wrong and I certainly have my biases.

I don't think moderating to try to get right wing independent or moderate Republican votes works for Democrats anymore. I think we are too demonized to be palatable. Even when Joe does something like crush the Railworker strike (like he just did) I think the main effect is that left wing independents and progressive Democrats get pissed off and stay home, I don't think right wingers looked at what Joe did would decide to vote Democrat and start to praise his moderate actions. But can I provide evidence for that? Well I will say Obama got elected in 2008 promising hope and big changes (that he mostly did not deliver on) while Clinton promising to be the sane moderate candidate to Trump lost. 

This is not an age of moderation. People are frustrated with the current status quo and want changes. Democrats have to deliver on that, not a moderate defense of the current way we do things. Delivering progressive changes will mobilize the base and get out independents I think.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Valmy77

[Valmy77 13,273]

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

Manchin's leverage took a huge blow too.  If he causes too much of a stink on votes, Harris can just cast the tiebreaker.

That is good for him. Now Manchin can grandstand all he wants and help with a re-election campaign in coal country West Virginia. Presuming he is not retiring after this.

11 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Best part about last night:

Yep. We only need 49 Democrats to pass something in the Senate now.

[henrygandorf 29,195]

19 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Best part about last night:

 

 

it’s gonna be a fucking party when gallego replaces her. 

[lemonlime 5,503]

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

It's the new "antifa".... it just means "anything I don't like."

I don't get it, or why the left lets them get away with it.  Not looking for genuine answers but how is being awake, a warrior for social justice, anti-fascist, or signaling virtue ever a bad thing?  These all sound pretty to awesome to me.  And telling that the right thinks these are somehow derogative terms.

[henrygandorf 29,195]

2 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I don't get it, or why the left lets them get away with it.  Not looking for genuine answers but how is being awake, a warrior for social justice, anti-fascist, or signaling virtue ever a bad thing?  These all sound pretty to awesome to me.  And telling that the right thinks these are somehow derogative terms.

sounds like you actually do get it. 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

I honestly can't believe that trumps first impeachment has been downplayed so much when it has now become extremely obvious that he was definitely influenced by Russia on not giving Ukraine weapons for defense and for trying to meddle with our election. It's pure insanity that people forgot about his perfect call already. 

People need to read the Mueller report. There is a shit ton of evidence in there showing all the connections between Trumps campaign and Russia. But People are stupid and can't read more than Tweet. That's why Trump's lie of "no collusion" + repetition = new truth

 

 

[wildcat09 29,416]

43 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Manchin's leverage took a huge blow too.  If he causes too much of a stink on votes, Harris can just cast the tiebreaker.

That's not how it works. If he's causing a stink, Sinema and probably Coons will be too. But Sinema was always the biggest problem. Manchin and Coons at the end of the day still consider themselves to be Democrats. She doesn't.

Edited December 7, 2022 by wildcat09

[G650 14,278]

Yeah for all of Manchin's faults, he is nowhere near the shit heel she is.

[Dbeasy 15,094]

45 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

It seemed to me we were headed for a crushing defeat and then Biden started throwing some bones to the progressives and his approval rating went up, the Democrats got a bounce and then we lost the election in the House just barely but mostly due to local conditions in New York and Florida and we won it in the Senate. 

Getting those chip manufacturing jobs back here also might have played a role.

But politics is ultimately reading bones and tea leaves and trying to control what is ultimately a chaotic process. So I could be wrong and I certainly have my biases.

I don't think moderating to try to get right wing independent or moderate Republican votes works for Democrats anymore. I think we are too demonized to be palatable. Even when Joe does something like crush the Railworker strike (like he just did) I think the main effect is that left wing independents and progressive Democrats get pissed off and stay home, I don't think right wingers looked at what Joe did would decide to vote Democrat and start to praise his moderate actions. But can I provide evidence for that? Well I will say Obama got elected in 2008 promising hope and big changes (that he mostly did not deliver on) while Clinton promising to be the sane moderate candidate to Trump lost. 

This is not an age of moderation. People are frustrated with the current status quo and want changes. Democrats have to deliver on that, not a moderate defense of the current way we do things. Delivering progressive changes will mobilize the base and get out independents I think.

I am a moderate independent. I don’t know how many are out there like me. But it sure seems like people like me are deciding all of these 50.1/49.9 races. 

[jimmyjazz 46,206]

Obviously 51-49 is better than 50-50, but it still doesn't change the fact that jackassery by Sinema AND Manchin renders Harris moot.  There's no tie to break when it's 49-51.

['stache 21,887]

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Republicans use “woke” because they can’t say the n-word in public anymore. It used to be “urban” or “inner city” in the 90s. In the 60s and 70s, they actually used “negro”. They all mean the same thing. 

It's also broader to include white libruls who dare recognize institutional racism and its remnants todays and support policies that would help remediate those remnants, formerly known as "race-traitors" or "n-word lovers."

Edited December 7, 2022 by 'stache

[immamac 43,157]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Obviously 51-49 is better than 50-50, but it still doesn't change the fact that jackassery by Sinema AND Manchin renders Harris moot.  There's no tie to break when it's 49-51.

you think they will go on record against the party? That's a good way to not get re-elected. 

[Valmy77 13,273]

9 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I am a moderate independent. I don’t know how many are out there like me. But it sure seems like people like me are deciding all of these 50.1/49.9 races. 

In an election that close lots of groups are. Taking all the others for granted to go after the moderate independents has shown to not be a very successful tactic for either party.

Obviously if the Democrats can please their base plus more populist independents AND the moderate independents they should do that. But how many times is that a realistic possibility?

Edited December 7, 2022 by Valmy77

[jimmyjazz 46,206]

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

you think they will go on record against the party? That's a good way to not get re-elected. 

I have no idea what those two will do on any given vote.  This is the world we live in.

[Valmy77 13,273]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Obviously 51-49 is better than 50-50, but it still doesn't change the fact that jackassery by Sinema AND Manchin renders Harris moot.  There's no tie to break when it's 49-51.

Well that's true. If they go that far then at least one of them needs to be won over.

[jimmyjazz 46,206]

Just now, Valmy77 said:

Well that's true. If they go that far then at least one of them needs to be won over.

Correct.  In the current Senate, both of them need to fall in line.  In the next Senate, only one needs to do the same.

[Neonmoon 38,130]

8 minutes ago, 'stache said:

It's also broader to include white libruls who dare recognize institutional racism and its remnants todays and support policies that would help remediate those remnants, formerly known as "race-traitors" or "n-word lovers."

That is correct. 

[henrygandorf 29,195]

talk all the shit you want about manchin (and i have) but he's a democratic senator from west virginia.  he's basically an endangered species.  he's the best case scenario for that seat for the foreseeable ever.

[Pato del Muerto 52,610]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Correct.  In the current Senate, both of them need to fall in line.  In the next Senate, only one needs to do the same.

Which means both have lost leverage.  First one to take a deal gets it, so take something or miss out when the other one does.  
 

Ya know, if you can get the other 49 in line. 

[henrygandorf 29,195]

can we make sinema an ambassador or put her in the cabinet or something?  i feel like that's what the pubs would do.

[jimmyjazz 46,206]

10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Which means both have lost leverage.  First one to take a deal gets it, so take something or miss out when the other one does.  
 

Ya know, if you can get the other 49 in line. 

No disagreement there.

[The Dog 44,157]

7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

can we make sinema an ambassador or put her in the cabinet or something?  i feel like that's what the pubs would do.

only if you have someone in mind who can actually win Arizona and not just help push through Biden's agenda. 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

can we make sinema an ambassador or put her in the cabinet or something?  i feel like that's what the pubs would do.

Republicans would threaten bodily harm to make her resign for "family reasons" and then put in a rubber stamp person

[Huckleberry 33,108]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

only if you have someone in mind who can actually win Arizona and not just help push through Biden's agenda. 

I thought that was Gallego.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,146]

New York has to rebuild the machine.  Post Cuomo, it is gutted.  The New York Dems did nothing.  It doesn't help that NYC has Adams as a mayor either.  Not my choice (voted for Garcia in the primary), but held my nose and voted for him in the general as Silwa was a nut.

13 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I thought that was Gallego.

I think it is.

[henrygandorf 29,195]

i was sold on gallego after his jan 6th tweet.  then i read up on him and seems like a strong dude who arizona already really likes.  if there's other stuff out there i haven't seen it.

[The Dog 44,157]

16 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I thought that was Gallego.

yeah that's the name being thrown around here but I know nothing about him. Democrats like to "fall in love" with a candidate and it's not always the best one. regardless I'll defer to those who know more. 

[Js1 85,599]

13 minutes ago, The Dog said:

yeah that's the name being thrown around here but I know nothing about him. Democrats like to "fall in love" with a candidate and it's not always the best one. regardless I'll defer to those who know more. 

Well let's see. He is progressive, yet in the blue collar caucus, military and Hispanic.  Seems a good fit for Arizona

He's not AOC/Omar type progressive, but he is progressive. 

[Ghost of LL 15,544]

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Georgia, with Atlanta’s growth, will soon look like Illinois where Atlanta metro dominates the state like Chicago does and basically decides the outcome. Atlanta metro + Columbus, Macon, Savannah and Augusta can dominate the rurals with continued growth.  North Georgia is seemingly the only place the Georgia GOP is doing better in recent years, but it’s getting washed out by the metro and southern suburbs of Atlanta 

It's a weird thing, because Atlanta's growth has been every bit as explosive as Dallas's.  But Dallas's growth has come hugely from disaffected Republican Californians who think they're moving to some anti-vax refuge, which has kept Collin and Denton counties red (and made Southlake even crazier than it already was).  Atlanta's growth seems very different.

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Warnock up 2.8 with 99% in. They basically nailed it

 

Yeah--that's called "herding."

[wildcat09 29,416]

55 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well let's see. He is progressive, yet in the blue collar caucus, military and Hispanic.  Seems a good fit for Arizona

He's not AOC/Omar type progressive, but he is progressive. 

Also he understands what the GOP is and isn't going to fuck around pretending to be bipartisan.

[tokamak 6,442]

2 hours ago, immamac said:

you think they will go on record against the party? That's a good way to not get re-elected. 

Like others have said, Manchin can do whatever he wants because there's no fucking way any other D candidate comes within 20 points of winning WV. He knows it and Dem leadership knows it. Given the structural problem that Ds have in the Senate, I'm sure they're happy to have his vote on judicial appointments, etc.

I don't know much about Synema - could she take the Tulsi Gabbard route? Lots of money to be made in that racket.

[Js1 85,599]

7 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Like others have said, Manchin can do whatever he wants because there's no fucking way any other D candidate comes within 20 points of winning WV. He knows it and Dem leadership knows it. Given the structural problem that Ds have in the Senate, I'm sure they're happy to have his vote on judicial appointments, etc.

I don't know much about Synema - could she take the Tulsi Gabbard route? Lots of money to be made in that racket.

Party leadership will 100% allow Manchin, Tester and/or Brown to vote against something if they have the votes to pass it otherwise. WV, MT and OH are our most endangered seats in 2024.  Obviously they can't do it all together without voting something down, but it'll be strategic - periodic no votes by each of them here and there in anticipation of tough 2024 races. 

[SydneyCarton 48,201]

19 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Like others have said, Manchin can do whatever he wants because there's no fucking way any other D candidate comes within 20 points of winning WV. He knows it and Dem leadership knows it. Given the structural problem that Ds have in the Senate, I'm sure they're happy to have his vote on judicial appointments, etc.

I don't know much about Synema - could she take the Tulsi Gabbard route? Lots of money to be made in that racket.

Could she take that route? She started taking that route 4 years ago. 

[henrygandorf 29,195]

55 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Like others have said, Manchin can do whatever he wants because there's no fucking way any other D candidate comes within 20 points of winning WV. He knows it and Dem leadership knows it. Given the structural problem that Ds have in the Senate, I'm sure they're happy to have his vote on judicial appointments, etc.

I don't know much about Synema - could she take the Tulsi Gabbard route? Lots of money to be made in that racket.

it's sad because manchin probably does actually represent the interests of his constituents.  he's what a senator is supposed to be, before politics became 100% a team sport. 

when one side's only goal is obstruction, you have to adapt.

[wildcat09 29,416]

48 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Party leadership will 100% allow Manchin, Tester and/or Brown to vote against something if they have the votes to pass it otherwise. WV, MT and OH are our most endangered seats in 2024.  Obviously they can't do it all together without voting something down, but it'll be strategic - periodic no votes by each of them here and there in anticipation of tough 2024 races. 

Tester and Brown have always been fairly progressive Senators though.  Tester makes sense, he's a big ol' boy and big ol' boys kill it in politics. Brown I think uses voodoo.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

only if you have someone in mind who can actually win Arizona and not just help push through Biden's agenda. 

Rueben Gallego says hello.

[henrygandorf 29,195]

this was my introduction to gallego:

kelli ward runs the az gop.