2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[Captainant 28557]

1 hour ago, Macklemore said:

Sohrab Ahmari nails it. I’m glad the GOP didn’t get their red wave with peddling the same crap. The transformation to the type of party that I’m looking for hasn’t happened yet because of the zombie GOP playbook that idiots still peddle. This country desperately needs a new party to replace the GOP. Post-liberals like myself don’t have a home.

 

Not enough goose-stepping for your tastes, I'm guessing?

[Pato del Muerto 53515]

Counties, or districts?  Because didn’t Texas redraw and add some red areas to border districts?

 

also I think the R already conceded but that’s non binding, and co-8 is showing within 900 votes.  Maybe that one has a clearer picture of where the outstanding totals will be coming from. 
 

(and the L candidate there has 8000 votes)

Edited November 10, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[G650 14440]

16 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if the capitol riot hurt the GOP.  I know some folks who aren’t democrats who were totally disgusted by it.

 

Really insightful take here

[C-Man 27783]

28 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It actually seems like a better strategy for dems would be to pour tons of money into all the other little races in red states. Benefits are that money is less likely to be wasted overall because those down ballot races can be more easily affected and because you're spreading the money over a larger number of races. And second, there may actually be a reverse coat-tail effect where the down ballot races actually have a positive affect on the top of the ticket. 

Actually, the only strategy that will ultimately be effective in destroying MAGA/GQP is something that hastens the demise of the Baby Boomers (COVID denial holla!). I really hate to say that because my parents fit that demo but their politics, while not horrific, are not great, buddy. I say this with full realization that my demo (White, 45-64) was just as much to blame -- minus me, of course -- for the results last week (and previously).

[Gap03 3386]

Just curious - have CO and AZ said anything about when they might expect to provide updates?  NV is providing daily updates in the evenings right?  At the pace they're counting, it feels like they may take a week or so to get through the remaining votes in NV and AZ.  Absolutely glacial, but I guess when you have to deal with AR-15 toting dipshits, I guess you have to make sure that there are no mistakes.

[Js1 87187]

12 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Counties, or districts?  Because didn’t Texas redraw and add some red areas to border districts?

They did make TX-23 much redder and fucked around with TX-34 and TX-28 and Doggett's seat to make TX-15 red leaning. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Js1

[aggie08 21817]

24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

So surprising the Humble Beast's information sources are flat out garbage. Who could have possibly guessed.

[troph 25231]

4 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Just curious - have CO and AZ said anything about when they might expect to provide updates?  NV is providing daily updates in the evenings right?  At the pace they're counting, it feels like they may take a week or so to get through the remaining votes in NV and AZ.  Absolutely glacial, but I guess when you have to deal with AR-15 toting dipshits, I guess you have to make sure that there are no mistakes.

it was weeks in 2022.  this ain't over until December when you take into account required recounts, some automatic, AZ, NV, run off in GA, plus counting in CA which takes weeks too it's just rarely an issue because winners can be declared early or plus or minus 2-3 house of reps rarely moves the needle. 

[Js1 87187]

6 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Just curious - have CO and AZ said anything about when they might expect to provide updates?  NV is providing daily updates in the evenings right?  At the pace they're counting, it feels like they may take a week or so to get through the remaining votes in NV and AZ.  Absolutely glacial, but I guess when you have to deal with AR-15 toting dipshits, I guess you have to make sure that there are no mistakes.

CO should have some more counting today, the clerks and counters went home last night to eat and sleep
AZ, posted above - the red leaning counties will update this morning/afternoon and Pima and Maricopa (blue parts) will do an evening update

Clark County, NV should have an update later

California updates every evening with mail updates

[chainsaw 10297]

Just now, Js1 said:

They did make TX-23 much redder and pulled some blue areas out of TX-34 and TX-28 to make TX-15 a red-leaning seat and to make Doggett's seat safer.

If you give perennial losers a glimmer of hope, it drives up turnout. I think that's what you saw in Cameron county, which I'm pretty sure is the whitest in the Valley.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Democrats actually do pretty well in rural AZ, and it will depend on what kinds of ballots get counted. So, the updates from our rural counties aren’t guaranteed to be 3:1 for Republicans

[Incredulity 11876]

These counts feel like when you step up to a customer service counter and the fucking employee spends a good 45 seconds typing on computer and stares blank at the computer screen for another 45 seconds then turns their head and smiles, "can I help you?"

[Js1 87187]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

If you give perennial losers a glimmer of hope, it drives up turnout. I think that's what you saw in Cameron county, which I'm pretty sure is the whitest in the Valley.

And as I mentioned, Beto being non-competitive in the end really hurt.  A better top of the ticket race could have helped some of the margins in South Texas -  Dems lost some ground in the State House races in South Texas, losing HD-37.  Dems did flip suburban Collin County house seat.

[HenryJames 67390]

1 hour ago, Macklemore said:

Sohrab Ahmari nails it. I’m glad the GOP didn’t get their red wave with peddling the same crap. The transformation to the type of party that I’m looking for hasn’t happened yet because of the zombie GOP playbook that idiots still peddle. This country desperately needs a new party to replace the GOP. Post-liberals like myself don’t have a home.

 

Maybe you can move to Hungary.

[chainsaw 10297]

Just now, Js1 said:

And as I mentioned, Beto being non-competitive in the end really hurt.  A better top of the ticket race could have helped some of the margins in South Texas -  Dems lost some ground in the State House races in South Texas, losing HD-37.  Dems did flip suburban Collin County house seat.

There won't be data or polls to back this up, but anecdotally I think people just got bored of the texts, the e-mails, the calls, the everything. Too much outreach. Beto minus the novelty doesn't bring people to the polls. Also didn't help that Trump isn't president--there's no two years of MAGA chaos to repudiate this time.

[Ghost of LL 15698]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

 

There’s some potential truth in the last point, but I’d also note that a runoff is where the democrats really get an advantage out of now being the party of more educated voters.

 

It's going to present much more like a special election than anything.  For most of the state, there's going to be a single race on the ballot.  And while it'll be relatively high-profile, the national consequences are going to be muted because it won't determine who holds the Senate.

Democrats have performed really well in special elections going back to 2017.  Part of that speaks to being the party of more-educated voters, as you point out.  Part of that indicates a more motivated base.  But regardless, I feel pretty confident about that runoff.

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

At no point in my cycle of predictions did I have "Lauren Boebert's seat is potentially the one to decide the House majority for 2023" on my bingo card

Which means this timeline is only going to get more wild.

If it ends up being 218-217, I expect multiple special elections in 2023 that will cost $10 billion each each time the majority could flip. 

It's just fucking wild.  And I'm totally here for a 218-217 House.  

For one thing, to @Bateshorn's point from yesterday, I can't imagine the Republicans will put the Hastert Rule back into effect.  I mean, why would any Member possibly favor that?  It would take away most of the power individual Republicans have in a House that hinges on every single vote.  But if there's no Hastert Rule, then you could have some absolutely wild politicking for individual votes for all manner of things.  It's just going to be amazing to watch.

But beyond that, at some point some Republican is going to die or get arrested for child pornography or get indicted for seditious conspiracy.  And, as you note, that special election is going to be insane.

40 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not really in doubt that the Alaska Senate race was going to go to RCV - date is the 23rd apparently

Trump endorsed Republican Tshibaka is at 44%, incumbent and MAGA-enemy Murkowski is at 43% and the Democrat is at 10%

In a perfect world, all those Dems put Murkowski second on their ballot, which should propel Murkowski over 50%.  That is what is *expected* to happen, as that is what Dems and moderate Republicans campaigned on doing "moderate GOP put Murkowski first in the Senate race but countered by ranking Peltola second on their House ballot and Dems put Chesboro first and Murkowski second"

Murkowski is the better choice any day over Tshibaka.  

This is really when you might look to the possibility of Murkowski switching parties.  She would be the 52nd vote, which would give her tremendous leverage because the Administration would be able to get shit done without Manchin and Sinema.  And now it's pretty well demonstrated between her and Peltola that she can win without having the (R) by her name.

[chainsaw 10297]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

It's going to present much more like a special election than anything.  For most of the state, there's going to be a single race on the ballot.  And while it'll be relatively high-profile, the national consequences are going to be muted because it won't determine who holds the Senate.

Democrats have performed really well in special elections going back to 2017.  Part of that speaks to being the party of more-educated voters, as you point out.  Part of that indicates a more motivated base.  But regardless, I feel pretty confident about that runoff.

It's just fucking wild.  And I'm totally here for a 218-217 House.  

For one thing, to @Bateshorn's point from yesterday, I can't imagine the Republicans will put the Hastert Rule back into effect.  I mean, why would any Member possibly favor that?  It would take away most of the power individual Republicans have in a House that hinges on every single vote.  But if there's no Hastert Rule, then you could have some absolutely wild politicking for individual votes for all manner of things.  It's just going to be amazing to watch.

But beyond that, at some point some Republican is going to die or get arrested for child pornography or get indicted for seditious conspiracy.  And, as you note, that special election is going to be insane.

This is really when you might look to the possibility of Murkowski switching parties.  She would be the 52nd vote, which would give her tremendous leverage because the Administration would be able to get shit done without Manchin and Sinema.  And now it's pretty well demonstrated between her and Peltola that she can win without having the (R) by her name.

She's a Sununu-type untouchable and bigger than the R. She would still win in a RCV state.

[Js1 87187]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

But beyond that, at some point some Republican is going to die or get arrested for child pornography or get indicted for seditious conspiracy.

You can count on that easily lol

[Js1 87187]

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

She's a Sununu-type untouchable and bigger than the R. She would still win in a RCV state.

Yep. She survived her dad’s miserable approvals in 04, won as a write in 2010 and will win with RCV in 2022. She’s electorally lucky 

[Gengs1 2583]

17 Million registered voters in Texas and 10 million didn’t cast a vote 

[SydneyCarton 49507]

7 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Maybe you can move to Hungary.

You can be the 20th person to tell him that Hungary isn't interested in gay, brown men. He doesn't seem to listen, even though Orban repeatedly says they only want straight, white people in their country. 

[Tuco 5094]

That's what it started looking like to me by yesterday morning.  With Rs going 0-2 in the last runoff when they actually had a chance to win the Senate, I can't see their enthusiasm/turnout being better this time.  Although I guess there will also be some dampening affect for Ds knowing that they'll have the Senate no matter what.

To put it differently, I think Republicans will show up to vote for Republican control of the Senate. They won’t show up to elect Walker over Warnock. A 50D/49R going into the race changes the election to one about the man rather than the party. And that’s not much of a contest.

[Pato del Muerto 53515]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This is really when you might look to the possibility of Murkowski switching parties.  She would be the 52nd vote, which would give her tremendous leverage because the Administration would be able to get shit done without Manchin and Sinema

Why would she need to change parties to be a hedge against sinema and manchin?  

[GenXer 3438]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And as I mentioned, Beto being non-competitive in the end really hurt.  A better top of the ticket race could have helped some of the margins in South Texas -  Dems lost some ground in the State House races in South Texas, losing HD-37.  Dems did flip suburban Collin County house seat.

Holy shit! My neighbor won. I’ll have to walk over and start pounding her on insulin prices, Colorado allowing international online purchases, and California making their own insulin.

[chainsaw 10297]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Why would she need to change parties to be a hedge against sinema and manchin?  

probably for some inside baseball reasons that most people don't give a shit about. committee shit, procedural rules, that would be the only reason. and also as a big fuck you to mitch

[Pato del Muerto 53515]

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

also as a big fuck you to mitch

Sold

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, GenXer said:

Holy shit! My neighbor won. I’ll have to walk over and start pounding her

sounds like the victory parties cawthorn was talking about

[chainsaw 10297]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Sold

i don't think it would happen though. the state republican party would do everything to extract a political toll by dragging her. it would be a totally unnecessary infliction of grief.

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Js1 87187]

Otero netted Boobert 550 votes so she’s leading again. It will come down to crucial Pueblo County 

[chainsaw 10297]

1 minute ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Cry me a river. Everyone knows Masters had unlimited money from Peter Thiel.

[SydneyCarton 49507]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Otero netted Boobert 550 votes so she’s leading again. It will come down to crucial Pueblo County 

Is Mesa county already done? How many outstanding in Pueblo. An approximately 450 vote lead feels hard to overcome. Esp if they are same day...

[GenXer 3438]

9 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

sounds like the victory parties cawthorn was talking about

I was hoping someone would catch that

[Js1 87187]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Is Mesa county already done? How many outstanding in Pueblo. An approximately 450 vote lead feels hard to overcome. Esp if they are same day...

I think Mesa is all done.

Pueblo supposedly has 1,800 in-person votes, 5,200 mail-votes and 550 ballots that need signature curing.

450 is not impossible to overcome if those 5,200 are Dem-leaning. 

[Pato del Muerto 53515]

It feels like it will be close enough that they will have to wait for and process all the military mail ins that trickle in over the next 8 days. Unless she’s ahead and those will break for her. 

[Ghost of LL 15698]

19 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

probably for some inside baseball reasons that most people don't give a shit about. committee shit, procedural rules, that would be the only reason. and also as a big fuck you to mitch

Right.  And others can speak to this more intelligently than I can.  But having her in the caucus meetings just makes it easier to bargain.

[SimonBolivar 11064]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Otero netted Boobert 550 votes so she’s leading again. It will come down to crucial Pueblo County 

Pueblo is our only hope, Jesus. 

 

[Js1 87187]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It feels like it will be close enough that they will have to wait for and process all the military mail ins that trickle in over the next 8 days. Unless she’s ahead and those will break for her. 

They're military and Americans abroad - I actually think they favor him. 

[yoladu 4191]

When it is all said and done i will be curious what that the overall popular vote for the midterms will be. Republican will gain seats, but certainly lose the overall vote.

Gerrymandering!

 

[[In 2018, Democrats won the popular vote by more than 9.7 million votes or 8.6%.]]

 

 

 

[Neonmoon 38130]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think Mesa is all done.

Pueblo supposedly has 1,800 in-person votes, 5,200 mail-votes and 550 ballots that need signature curing.

450 is not impossible to overcome if those 5,200 are Dem-leaning. 

How fucking long does it take to count 7K votes? Jesus

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

13 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

More than half the electorate being white people over 45 explains a hell of a lot about the current state of the country.

Me, a white people turning 44 in 17 days, "Yeah, fuck those people!"

[G650 14440]

3 minutes ago, yoladu said:

When it is all said and done i will be curious what that the overall popular vote for the midterms will be. Republican will gain seats, but certainly lose the overall vote.

Gerrymandering!

 

[[In 2018, Democrats won the popular vote by more than 9.7 million votes or 8.6%.]]

 

 

 

I think the overall is actually going to be R +2% nationally

[The Dog 44861]

 

[Dahobbs 18326]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think Mesa is all done.

Pueblo supposedly has 1,800 in-person votes, 5,200 mail-votes and 550 ballots that need signature curing.

450 is not impossible to overcome if those 5,200 are Dem-leaning. 

Winning the remaining pueblo vote, not including any cured ballots, by just a bit over 6% would make up that difference. That seems doable? If the remaining oversees mail ins also favor dem, that may provide enough margin to make up whatever is left in red counties. 

[Js1 87187]

4 minutes ago, G650 said:

I think the overall is actually going to be R +2% nationally

It could end up anywhere from R+0.5 to R+2 with the caveat that the GOP had a lot more uncontested races than Dems did, so that inflates their popular vote.

7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

How fucking long does it take to count 7K votes? Jesus

I know it's weird to hear, but the people doing the counting and preparing the ballots to be run through the machines are human and do require food and sleep.

I know, it's awful.  Robot umps and robot poll workers.

[Dahobbs 18326]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

It could end up anywhere from R+0.5 to R+2 with the caveat that the GOP had a lot more uncontested races than Dems did, so that inflates their popular vote.

I know it's weird to hear, but the people doing the counting and preparing the ballots to be run through the machines are human and do require food and sleep.

I know, it's awful.  Robot umps and robot poll workers.

Hey now, don't take away Boebert's only other job.. 

[Clintonaldo 2618]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

@Zonahorn is more optimistic than I am but I see Lake/Kelly/Fontes as the most likely outcome 

Kelly and Fontes are running neck and neck right now with Hobbs behind them. 

Are you saying you think Lake beats Hobbs? I have an irrational hatred of Lake so I have trouble comprehending sometimes.

[SizzleChest 8314]

50 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Maybe you can move to Hungary.

People say they have a highly evolved butthole culture.  Nice and billowy.

[Pato del Muerto 53515]

14 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Me, a white people turning 44 in 17 days, "Yeah, fuck those people!"

White people that turned 44 4 weeks ago here.  Just constantly wondering how other white peoples can act so cravenly selfish. And then knowing they the selfishness for most is misguided as they aren’t rich enough to even reap the benefits of R leadership. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

51 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

There won't be data or polls to back this up, but anecdotally I think people just got bored of the texts, the e-mails, the calls, the everything. Too much outreach. Beto minus the novelty doesn't bring people to the polls. Also didn't help that Trump isn't president--there's no two years of MAGA chaos to repudiate this time.

Universally I’m hearing all over town: Dems need to stop with the constant texting.  It’s incredibly off puttinf