2022 Election Day Thread - Midterm Rumble

[Js1 87174]

29 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Tester and Brown have always been fairly progressive Senators though.  Tester makes sense, he's a big ol' boy and big ol' boys kill it in politics. Brown I think uses voodoo.

Both Brown and Tester are in favor of nuking the filibuster, unlike Manchin and Sinema. 

Brown is just a rust belt progressive populist.  Tester is literally the epitome of Montana - the dude runs his farm when he's back home in MT. 

[Ghost of LL 15698]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Both Brown and Tester are in favor of nuking the filibuster, unlike Manchin and Sinema. 

Brown is just a rust belt progressive populist.  Tester is literally the epitome of Montana - the dude runs his farm when he's back home in MT. 

I'm going to tell you what--people who are writing off Manchin, Tester, and Brown in 2024 are just ignoring the history of the Republican Party.

Maybe this is a discussion for the 2024 thread.  But we heard plenty of it last night.  We need a cushion for 2024.

But fuck--you know that no matter how favorable the map is, the Republicans will blow one or two seats just on their candidate-recruitment efforts.

This isn't a 2022 phenomenon.  It was maybe particularly acute in 2022.  But the recruitment problem didn't begin with their failure to get Sununu to run for Senate in New Hampshire.  And the nomination problem didn't start with Herschel and Oz.  This is a long-standing problem.

This is a problem that goes back a generation.  It predates Trump by two decades.  Trump didn't have anything to do with the nomination of Todd Akin ("legitimate rape") or Richard Mourdock (pregnancy from rape is "something God intended").  And for that matter, Mitch McConnell didn't have anything to do with running Alan Keyes in fucking Illinois in 2004--who the hell thought that was a good idea?

The Republicans were running people like Fay Boozman for Senate in Arkansas in 1998, as a result of which the voters got to learn that pregnancy doesn't result from rape because there's "God's little protective shield" that intercedes.  And so they fucking lost an open seat in fucking Arkansas.

There's no excuse for that.

And I've just named a few.  The list of ridiculous Republican Senate nominees is exceptionally long.  And the list of recruitment misses is even longer.

For all the talk of how disorganized the Democratic Party is--"Democrats in Disarray" has become a cliché at this point--the Democrats are on fucking point with their Senate candidate recruitment.  Mark Kelly was a fucking coup.  Fetterman was so great he could win with half his brain tied behind his back.  

 

TLDR: The Republicans are going to blow at least one winnable seat in 2024 because of a shitty candidate.  It's in their nature.

[The Dog 44854]

 

[henrygandorf 29225]

50 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm going to tell you what--people who are writing off Manchin, Tester, and Brown in 2024 are just ignoring the history of the Republican Party.

Maybe this is a discussion for the 2024 thread.  But we heard plenty of it last night.  We need a cushion for 2024.

But fuck--you know that no matter how favorable the map is, the Republicans will blow one or two seats just on their candidate-recruitment efforts.

This isn't a 2022 phenomenon.  It was maybe particularly acute in 2022.  But the recruitment problem didn't begin with their failure to get Sununu to run for Senate in New Hampshire.  And the nomination problem didn't start with Herschel and Oz.  This is a long-standing problem.

This is a problem that goes back a generation.  It predates Trump by two decades.  Trump didn't have anything to do with the nomination of Todd Akin ("legitimate rape") or Richard Mourdock (pregnancy from rape is "something God intended").  And for that matter, Mitch McConnell didn't have anything to do with running Alan Keyes in fucking Illinois in 2004--who the hell thought that was a good idea?

The Republicans were running people like Fay Boozman for Senate in Arkansas in 1998, as a result of which the voters got to learn that pregnancy doesn't result from rape because there's "God's little protective shield" that intercedes.  And so they fucking lost an open seat in fucking Arkansas.

There's no excuse for that.

And I've just named a few.  The list of ridiculous Republican Senate nominees is exceptionally long.  And the list of recruitment misses is even longer.

For all the talk of how disorganized the Democratic Party is--"Democrats in Disarray" has become a cliché at this point--the Democrats are on fucking point with their Senate candidate recruitment.  Mark Kelly was a fucking coup.  Fetterman was so great he could win with half his brain tied behind his back.  

 

TLDR: The Republicans are going to blow at least one winnable seat in 2024 because of a shitty candidate.  It's in their nature.

maybe the gop should stop relying on half-assed celebrities and last minute investigations to save them.

their playbook is a post-it.

[Voldemort86 2259]

11 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

I love how, after getting laughed off the scene with their comically bad polls a month ago, Trafalgar decided to try and regain some street cred by releasing a last minute poll that just happened to line up perfectly with the polling average. Must have decided not to use their "Secret Hidden GOP Voter Formula" this time. 

I didn’t even know they released a poll for the run off. They must’ve dropped it on Election Day after being reassured 50 times over by experts that Warnock was going to win.

Trafalgar is trash. I think it’s hilarious that the GOP got totally duped by it and expected this massive red wave that never came close to materializing.

[Gatorubet 30710]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

TLDR: The Republicans are going to blow at least one winnable seat in 2024 because of a shitty candidate.  It's in their nature.

“I am not a witch…”

[The Dog 44854]

I don't understand why y'all are so bearish on 2024 already but you do you.

[G650 14437]

8 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

“I am not a witch…”

Always my first thought when discussing crazy Republicans

[SydneyCarton 49475]

8 hours ago, The Dog said:

I don't understand why y'all are so bearish on 2024 already but you do you.

Senate map, I’d wager. 

[Aqua Buddha 14803]

12 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm going to tell you what--people who are writing off Manchin, Tester, and Brown in 2024 are just ignoring the history of the Republican Party.

Maybe this is a discussion for the 2024 thread.  But we heard plenty of it last night.  We need a cushion for 2024.

But fuck--you know that no matter how favorable the map is, the Republicans will blow one or two seats just on their candidate-recruitment efforts.

This isn't a 2022 phenomenon.  It was maybe particularly acute in 2022.  But the recruitment problem didn't begin with their failure to get Sununu to run for Senate in New Hampshire.  And the nomination problem didn't start with Herschel and Oz.  This is a long-standing problem.

This is a problem that goes back a generation.  It predates Trump by two decades.  Trump didn't have anything to do with the nomination of Todd Akin ("legitimate rape") or Richard Mourdock (pregnancy from rape is "something God intended").  And for that matter, Mitch McConnell didn't have anything to do with running Alan Keyes in fucking Illinois in 2004--who the hell thought that was a good idea?

The Republicans were running people like Fay Boozman for Senate in Arkansas in 1998, as a result of which the voters got to learn that pregnancy doesn't result from rape because there's "God's little protective shield" that intercedes.  And so they fucking lost an open seat in fucking Arkansas.

There's no excuse for that.

And I've just named a few.  The list of ridiculous Republican Senate nominees is exceptionally long.  And the list of recruitment misses is even longer.

For all the talk of how disorganized the Democratic Party is--"Democrats in Disarray" has become a cliché at this point--the Democrats are on fucking point with their Senate candidate recruitment.  Mark Kelly was a fucking coup.  Fetterman was so great he could win with half his brain tied behind his back.  

 

TLDR: The Republicans are going to blow at least one winnable seat in 2024 because of a shitty candidate.  It's in their nature.

Ah, Fay Boozman.  There's a name I haven't heard in a long time.....

This is largely correct but you're leaving out something.  That would be the actual Republican primary voters.  There are more than a few examples of a serviceable candidate losing in the primary to a complete fucking loon.  Roy Moore was admitted child molester who was on a no fly list at a mall, for God's sake and he beat an incumbent.  Then you have Herschel getting 70% or whatever in the primary.  

The voters are more concerned about liberal tears and the outrage of the day.

[cactusflinthead 27627]

3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

There are more than a few examples of a serviceable candidate losing in the primary to a complete fucking loon

This right here. I see no signs that the Republican primary voter is any less crazy. Run a generic R businessman type and a wild eyed crazy motherfucker and the mfer is going to win the primary. Especially if Trump gives an endorsement. 

They don't want sanity. Crazy train or bust.

[Ghost of LL 15698]

2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Ah, Fay Boozman.  There's a name I haven't heard in a long time.....

This is largely correct but you're leaving out something.  That would be the actual Republican primary voters.  There are more than a few examples of a serviceable candidate losing in the primary to a complete fucking loon.  Roy Moore was admitted child molester who was on a no fly list at a mall, for God's sake and he beat an incumbent.  Then you have Herschel getting 70% or whatever in the primary.  

The voters are more concerned about liberal tears and the outrage of the day.

I think the two are closely related.  Perhaps they're so closely related that they're the same problem.

There's no doubt that the Republican primary  electorate is prone to nominating lunatics.  That's probably due to the fact that the average Republican primary voter is . . . a lunatic.  So you're right that they have a real problem there.

But that then impairs their candidate-recruitment efforts.  If I'm a business executive or whatever, am I going to subject myself to a primary electorate that is filled with loons?  Fuck that shit.  Run for Dallas mayor in a non-partisan election?  Sure.  But run in a Republican primary?  Fucking never.  If I'm sane, I know I wouldn't win.  And why would I subject myself to that?

On the rare occasion that the Party can steal the nomination process away from its voters, it comes up with a good candidate like Glen Youngkin.  And Youngkin was encouraged to run because he knew he'd get the nomination through a convention, and not through a primary.

 

If you go back, this whole thing probably started with Pat Buchanan in 1992.  Fucking "peasants carrying pitchforks."  But Pat Buchanan was no peasant, and he certainly wasn't carrying a pitchfork.  He was Nixon's speechwriter, for chrissakes.  He was as "establishment" as it got.  His whole populism was what populism always is: a cynical appeal to popular discontent in the middle of a recession wielded by a cynical elite against other elites.

Pat Buchanan could kind of contain his lunatics.  But they quickly got off the reservation with Ross Perot.  And ever since then, the Republican Party has had a devil of a time trying to contain what Pat Buchanan originally let out of that Pandora's box.  Trump may have picked that box up and thrown it against the wall to shatter it into little pieces and let all the demons out.  But this problem long predates him.

[Js1 87174]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

On the rare occasion that the Party can steal the nomination process away from its voters, it comes up with a good candidate like Glen Youngkin.  And Youngkin was encouraged to run because he knew he'd get the nomination through a convention, and not through a primary.

 

Yeah, in a GOP primary, Amanda Chase probably would have easily won that governor primary.  

[G650 14437]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, in a GOP primary, Amanda Chase probably would have easily won that governor primary.  

[henrygandorf 29225]

3 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This is largely correct but you're leaving out something.  That would be the actual Republican primary voters.  There are more than a few examples of a serviceable candidate losing in the primary to a complete fucking loon.

there was also a calculated effort this year by dems to prop up fringe/wack-job maga candidates in the hope that they would do, well, exactly what they did - lose in the general.  i don't think this is a long-term sustainable strategy moving forward, but it was a high-stakes decision made and executed at the highest level in 2022 and the dems deserve a lot of credit for it.

[babysdaddy 2731]

30 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

there was also a calculated effort this year by dems to prop up fringe/wack-job maga candidates in the hope that they would do, well, exactly what they did - lose in the general.  i don't think this is a long-term sustainable strategy moving forward, but it was a high-stakes decision made and executed at the highest level in 2022 and the dems deserve a lot of credit for it.

It worked extraordinarily well.  I think Dems won 11 or 12 out of the 13 or 14 races they tried this strategy on.  Unfortunately for us, Rs will try to copy and Ds will double down and we will end up with races between super left and super right candidates.  further division incoming unless we can switch to rank choice voting or some other way to fix the primary season.  Sweet.

[cactusflinthead 27627]

The Republicans have been doing it. Democrats finally figured out two can play that game.

[The Dog 44854]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

It worked extraordinarily well.  I think Dems won 11 or 12 out of the 13 or 14 races they tried this strategy on.  Unfortunately for us, Rs will try to copy and Ds will double down and we will end up with races between super left and super right candidates.  further division incoming unless we can switch to rank choice voting or some other way to fix the primary season.  Sweet.

It won’t work as well against the dems.  The dems get involved in the primary process and push their voters to choose the best candidate for the general election. It usually works, not 100% full proof tho.  The Republican policy is to stay out of it and let the Republican base choose their champion.

[henrygandorf 29225]

6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It won’t work as well against the dems.  The dems get involved in the primary process and push their voters to choose the best candidate for the general election. It usually works, not 100% full proof tho.  The Republican policy is to stay out of it and let the Republican base choose their champion.

the other thing to consider is that fringe lefties and fringe righties are not the same thing.  half the gop is/supports the fringe wack-jobs.  i don't know a good comp for the left since we don't have a trump.  

56 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

i heard a little bit of this conversation yesterday.  "the dems start with a huge lead because of early voting and we're forced to win 60% of the day-of votes which is too steep of a hill to climb."  yeah, well no shit.  you dug your way into this hole you can dig your way out (that's not how holes work).

you should always vote early if given the opportunity because, "what if it rains?"

[Js1 87174]

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

the other thing to consider is that fringe lefties and fringe righties are not the same thing.  half the gop is/supports the fringe wack-jobs.  i don't know a good comp for the left since we don't have a trump.  

i heard a little bit of this conversation yesterday.  "the dems start with a huge lead because of early voting and we're forced to win 60% of the day-of votes which is too steep of a hill to climb."  yeah, well no shit.  you dug your way into this hole you can dig your way out (that's not how holes work).

you should always vote early if given the opportunity because, "what if it rains?"

Smarter to bank your votes and work on soft/uncommitted voters for Election Day than chasing your entire base + some for Election Day

[Voldemort86 2259]

16 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

the other thing to consider is that fringe lefties and fringe righties are not the same thing.  half the gop is/supports the fringe wack-jobs.  i don't know a good comp for the left since we don't have a trump.  

i heard a little bit of this conversation yesterday.  "the dems start with a huge lead because of early voting and we're forced to win 60% of the day-of votes which is too steep of a hill to climb."  yeah, well no shit.  you dug your way into this hole you can dig your way out (that's not how holes work).

you should always vote early if given the opportunity because, "what if it rains?"

The narrative this year in some states was vote as late as possible, don’t vote by mail, and vote only in certain locations in a certain way so the democrats can’t “ find” enough votes to counter punch.

kari lake is a freaking loon.

[YGIFS 19458]

Y'all also really need to a better messaging job reaching out to former GOP/Libertarian voters who may just sit the thing out.  I know you think anybody that ever voted Republican is a soulless asshole.  But there are millions of those votes up for grabs now, several hundred thousand of them just in Texas.  And if they're gonna break AND also actually turn out, they do it 70/30 during early voting.  Otherwise, they get cold feet and stay home or vote familiar on Election Day.  Sort of this, "If I'm gonna do this, rip the band-aid off fast and get it over with."  That new tranche of post-MAGA voters can literally swing entire states (not Texas, yet).  But all they hear/read during early voting is "Fellow Democrats, bring 3 friends with you to vote.  Turn out the Blue Wave, Progressives Unite!"  And then a barrage of berating points about how all former Republicans against Trump are still disingenuous enablers to blame.  Nobody's asking for a group hug, but 2024 doesn't go how you think it's gonna go unless those centre-right independents, never Trumpers, and Libertarians stay home in PA, WI, MI, and AZ.  And they will.  They had a patriotic duty in 2020 to get Commander Shithead out of office.  But that'll swelled chest will deflate by 2024 and they'll just skip that part of the ballot.  More research confirming this is coming from TPP and others next year.

[jimmyjazz 47126]

5 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

The Republicans have been doing it. Democrats finally figured out two can play that game.

Shit, my mom cross-party voted in certain primaries when I was a kid, and she was a Republican.  Then she eventually switched parties, as did my Dad.  She continued the practice.  It's not new.

[cactusflinthead 27627]

On 12/7/2022 at 2:59 PM, Js1 said:

the dude runs his farm when he's back home in MT.

I follow him on FB. A couple of years ago while they were on a break he hauled ass home to get the last of the year finished up. A couple of days later there he is working on equipment. He's a legit farmer.

[cactusflinthead 27627]

This gave me tiredhead.

Whole lotta words and charts to say that people changing parties is a big mover.

Ok then. 

But why did they do it?

 

[cactusflinthead 27627]

Kari Lake made it before the 5pm cutoff 

 

[tbone_ 14438]

Thank God she’s going to set us straight

[WhatTheBuck 28928]

On 12/7/2022 at 9:39 PM, Gatorubet said:

“I am not a witch…”

That was around the same time when if someone mentioned the rape guy you’d have to ask “Which one?”

[cactusflinthead 27627]

Get your shit together NY.

Be like Georgia not Texas.

 

[Bullneck 19511]

On 11/9/2022 at 9:28 PM, Bullneck said:

In case anyone is wondering how the Macomb County election in Michigan is going, whelp, it got a lot less interesting earlier this year:

A Michigan election denier who was parodied by ‘S.N.L.’ is disqualified as a candidate.

Melissa Carone, who was enlisted by Rudolph W. Giuliani to testify at an election oversight hearing, made a false statement on a candidate affidavit, state officials said.

 

Damn, Melissa Carone AND Jenna Ellis.  Now that's an OnlyFans I can get behind.

Edited March 25 by Bullneck