The Republican Civil War - it will be because we destroyed ourselves

[Francisco 2.0 32214]

6 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Can the Republican party afford to lose X million number of MAGA votes next election cycle?  I don't think so with how close many states are.  

Well, not really.

But if they eliminate non-property owners from the vote, people under the age of 21 and women, they might have a chance.

 

 

[aggie08 20486]

While losing the MAGA base--who were mostly non-voters before Trump--would be catastrophic to the GOP, let's not underestimate how many people held their noses to vote for Biden who will jump right back on the elephant to vote for literally ANY piece of shit not named Trump.

Edited November 14, 2022 by aggie08

[Biff Tannen 45209]

12 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Can the Republican party afford to lose X million number of MAGA votes next election cycle?  I don't think so with how close many states are.  

Only if the Dems don't turn out and/or the votes are suppressed.

2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

While losing the MAGA base--who were mostly non-voters before Trump--would be catastrophic to the GOP, let's not underestimate how many people help their noses to vote for Biden who will jump right back on the elephant to vote for literally ANY piece of shit not named Trump.

Also this.  My in laws are prime examples.

[atomheartbevo 89044]

25 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Some will, some won't. Won't hit Trump's numbers in the general but I could see him outperforming Romney but not flipping any Biden 2020 states. Not even Georgia.

21 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Can the Republican party afford to lose X million number of MAGA votes next election cycle?  I don't think so with how close many states are.  

Quite a few will probably be pissed and stay home or even vote against DeSantis. At the very least, they will lump him in with The Deep State and say that this is all a part of the RINO conspiracy against Trump, etc.

Trump holds a grudge like nobody’s business, and I expect some of his followers do as well.

[The Dog 43483]

32 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

What is interesting to me is based on that poll where Desantis is at 42% and Trump at 35%, what happens if Desantis wins the primary?  Do the 35% MAGA's go out and vote for Desantis or do they stay home.  Staying home would be disastrous for the Republicans (hate to see it). 

vast majority will fall in line just like they did behind Trump. 

However, those that stick with him if he runs third party won't be insignificant and likely will cost the GOP the White House. I don't think he wants to be the spoiler though - it's win or back out like a bitter bitch.

[aggie08 20486]

I wonder what the price would be for Republican donors to buy off Trump to have him come up with some bullshit excuse for dropping out, and then endorsing Desantis.

[Brisketexan 103650]

44 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

What is interesting to me is based on that poll where Desantis is at 42% and Trump at 35%, what happens if Desantis wins the primary?  Do the 35% MAGA's go out and vote for Desantis or do they stay home.  Staying home would be disastrous for the Republicans (hate to see it). 

This.

Scenario 1: nominate Desantis, see GQP turnout drop by 10% = DISASTER.

Scenario 2: nominate Trump, see rational GOP voter turnout drop by 3%, see more Dem enthusiasm to show up because they hate Trump, maybe 5%, so an 8% negative number....This is the winning play.

It's all math, and you can be damn sure that the GQP strategists will be running all of those numbers repeatedly.  And I think that ultimately, the math in favor of continuing to go with Trump as the party leader and nominee will be undeniable.

[wildcat09 28562]

27 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

While losing the MAGA base--who were mostly non-voters before Trump--would be catastrophic to the GOP, let's not underestimate how many people held their noses to vote for Biden who will jump right back on the elephant to vote for literally ANY piece of shit not named Trump.

This is true, but the problem with this (for Republicans) is that, while all the "moderates" in the party want to paint DeSantis as a moderate Republican now, he's not. He's a far-right dipshit who does nothing but wage all the far-right culture war shit, and he'll have to tack even further to the right to win a primary against Trump. So even if he somehow overcame his crippling lack of charisma to beat Trump, a lot of people who've been holding their nose and voting D are still going to smell the far-right shit caked all over him because he's been swimming in it for years.

[Biff Tannen 45209]

5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

This is true, but the problem with this (for Republicans) is that, while all the "moderates" in the party want to paint DeSantis as a moderate Republican now, he's not. He's a far-right dipshit who does nothing but wage all the far-right culture war shit, and he'll have to tack even further to the right to win a primary against Trump. So even if he somehow overcame his crippling lack of charisma to beat Trump, a lot of people who've been holding their nose and voting D are still going to smell the far-right shit caked all over him because he's been swimming in it for years.

Methinks you underestimate the ability for people to twist their logic.  ANYONE not named Trump will be good enough for many traditional R voters.  They think HE is the problem, not the far right insanity.

[Macanudo 12798]

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

Debates did kinda matter in the 2016 GOP Primary.  Trump was a buffoon to most serious Republicans.  But it was watching Trump just beat the shit out of the half dozen to his left flank, then the half dozen to his right flank...changed minds.  Well, minds didn't change but noses were held and checks written and levers pulled.  Most serious Republican operators we heard from liked him even less after those debates...but they also noticed---he was invigorating a base they didn't know was there/couldn't reach AND their preferred candidate looked befuddled up there and not very Presidential at all standing up to a fucking gameshow host.  

But to your point, a general election debate is about as worthwhile as Dolly Parton last prostate exam.  Sure I'll still watch, but no opinions would be swayed.

Somebody is gonna figure out though how to get DeSantis and Trump in the same room with cameras long before Iowa 2024 (15 months away, keep in mind).  Some conference or fundraiser or some shit.  Nevermind there's a half dozen other legitimate candidates out there waiting to pounce in once these two start beating the shit outta each other.  DeSantis can run intellectual circles around Trump on policy, reasoning, vision, etc.  But to points above, DeSantis comes across as flat, flaccid, and boring.  

 

Today I learned that Dolly Parton has a prostate.

[atomheartbevo 89044]

13 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Methinks you underestimate the ability for people to twist their logic.  ANYONE not named Trump will be good enough for many traditional R voters.  They think HE is the problem, not the far right insanity.

Yep.

[The Dog 43483]

MTG falling in line:

[WBT 20278]

I think the key point from the DeSantis 42% Trump 35% poll is that it is a head to head poll.  I have little doubt that Trump will keep his 35-40%.  In 2016 that was enough as the Rs who wanted anyone but Trump never united between one alternative.  Will they unite behind one candidate and get everyone else to clear out, like the Ds were able to do behind Biden to shutdown Bernie?  Would DeSantis really be that guy?  

[Nivek 16688]

41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.

Scenario 1: nominate Desantis, see GQP turnout drop by 10% = DISASTER.

Scenario 2: nominate Trump, see rational GOP voter turnout drop by 3%, see more Dem enthusiasm to show up because they hate Trump, maybe 5%, so an 8% negative number....This is the winning play.

It's all math, and you can be damn sure that the GQP strategists will be running all of those numbers repeatedly.  And I think that ultimately, the math in favor of continuing to go with Trump as the party leader and nominee will be undeniable.

And more voter restrictions will be put in place to 'even' those numbers out.

[chainsaw 9668]

Trump was elected for one reason and one reason only: Hillary Clinton.

[chainsaw 9668]

56 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Quite a few will probably be pissed and stay home or even vote against DeSantis. At the very least, they will lump him in with The Deep State and say that this is all a part of the RINO conspiracy against Trump, etc.

Trump holds a grudge like nobody’s business, and I expect some of his followers do as well.

Trump's power comes from his people. What happens if they all defect, though?

[Chuckie Finster 22342]

MTG falling in line:

Jesus Christ. I know it’s been implied for decades but explicitly hearing “The enemy is the Democrat Party” is jarring.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33723]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Trump was elected for one reason and one reason only: Hillary Clinton.

Which in hindsight seems like a pretty fucking stupid reason, dontcha think? >1M dead people probably think so

[WhatTheBuck 28615]

3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Trump was elected for one reason and one reason only: Hillary Clinton.

Really? You missed the massive freak out on the right over having a black President?

[chainsaw 9668]

1 minute ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Really? You missed the massive freak out on the right over having a black President?

That was the Tea Party. Obama carried WI/MI/PA consistently. Hell, he even carried Ohio.

[The Dog 43483]

Now she wants a war…make up your mind you stupid bitch:

[atomheartbevo 89044]

15 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Really? You missed the massive freak out on the right over having a black President?

Somehow they couldn’t stop him beating a Vietnam War hero or a rich generic white guy.

Which gets into Trump tapping into something that got people out in 2016 when the Black guy wasn’t on the ballot.

Edited November 14, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Ghost of LL 15255]

1 hour ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

What is interesting to me is based on that poll where Desantis is at 42% and Trump at 35%, what happens if Desantis wins the primary?  Do the 35% MAGA's go out and vote for Desantis or do they stay home.  Staying home would be disastrous for the Republicans (hate to see it). 

I think it's under-appreciated just how many Trump voters never voted before in their lives.  It's a huge number, and was enough to swing Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan in 2016.

It's not hard to see why--he played right to their grievances.  All the things they thought about politics and politicians and the "system" he said out loud for them.  And he was an asshole while doing it who infuriated everyone they wanted to infuriate.  For them, it was only ever about "owning the libs."  And if destroying the country is what it took, that's fine; the country wasn't working great for them anyway (at least in their though process).

So if there's a guy who's not just all about owning the libs, they're going to sink back into the woodwork and not be heard from.  For them, politics has become entertainment.  Trump is the hero.  The "libs" are the villain.  DeSantis doesn't very well play the hero, and he doesn't go out and slay the villain in the way Trump does.  And without that screenplay, they're just not interested in the show.

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

While losing the MAGA base--who were mostly non-voters before Trump--would be catastrophic to the GOP, let's not underestimate how many people held their noses to vote for Biden who will jump right back on the elephant to vote for literally ANY piece of shit not named Trump.

Undoubtedly, some will.  I think you saw that in Texas.  A whole bunch of people in Tarrant and Collin counties went back to the GQP with Trump not on the ballot.

But for every suburbanite that comes back, I think you lose two people in the rural and exurban areas who were only ever excited about Trump.

Trump's right about one thing: he got more votes than Romney.  Trump energized a lot of people.  And without those votes, the GQP is sunk.

[956 Worldwide 34016]

1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

This is true, but the problem with this (for Republicans) is that, while all the "moderates" in the party want to paint DeSantis as a moderate Republican now, he's not. He's a far-right dipshit who does nothing but wage all the far-right culture war shit, and he'll have to tack even further to the right to win a primary against Trump. So even if he somehow overcame his crippling lack of charisma to beat Trump, a lot of people who've been holding their nose and voting D are still going to smell the far-right shit caked all over him because he's been swimming in it for years.

He also has a tough row to hoe because he’s trying to attract two blocs— what is left of the moderate GOP and the jihadist culture war wing that’s mad at Trump for not going all-in enough. This early head to head poll is one thing but here’s the thing that’s gonna hurt him— he’ll go out there in front of Trump and he can’t be more genuine than Trump. That’s Trump’s secret sauce, he’s an openly, genuinely sack of garbage and that is what sinks people who try to stand up against him in a party that has a base craving a genuine piece of garbage. 

[Brisketexan 103650]

He also has a tough row to hoe because he’s trying to attract two blocs— what is left of the moderate GOP and the jihadist culture war wing that’s mad at Trump for not going all-in enough. This early head to head poll is one thing but here’s the thing that’s gonna hurt him— he’ll go out there in front of Trump and he can’t be more genuine than Trump. That’s Trump’s secret sauce, he’s an openly, genuinely sack of garbage and that is what sinks people who try to stand up against him in a party that has a base craving a genuine piece of garbage. 

This. The GQP base is shitty people who believe and want shitty things and so they will only support a shitty candidate who is a shitty person.

“The cruelty is the point.” In the end, it’s the only point. The base will not support anyone who isn’t a complete fucking asshole.

[WhatTheBuck 28615]

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That was the Tea Party. Obama carried WI/MI/PA consistently. Hell, he even carried Ohio.

You missed Trump’s birther campaign? The “blacklash” wasn’t limited to the creation of the Tea Party. Trump’s campaign of racism appealed to a lot of people. (Thanks for letting me know how my state votes, btw.)

It’s never just one thing but the most significant thing in Hillary’s loss was probably talking about a new investigation into her emails, which was just the old one over again because they found some on Weiner’s laptop. If Comey kept his mouth shut (as dept. policy would dictate), or if at the same time he had announced that the FBI was also investigating connections between the Trump campaign and Russia, Hillary probably would’ve won.

Chances are good that Trump would’ve won the popular vote if he had been running against Bernie. Sure, he would’ve lost the votes from disgruntled Bernie Bros who thought Bernie got screwed (he didn’t), but Bernie wouldn’t have had the minority support that Hillary did. So I think it’s just horribly inaccurate to say that “Trump was elected for one reason and one reason only: Hillary Clinton.”

[chainsaw 9668]

Here's the play from today until the end of the Republican Primary:

Trump is DeSantis and DeSantis is Trump.

Just say that over and over and over again. The same bullshit culture wars, the same replacement theory hysterics, the same covid denialism.

If Trump wins the primary, all you need to do is run the better candidate. Joe Biden probably cleans his clock.

If DeSantis wins the primary, you don't let him or his party distance themselves from Trump's failures.

[chainsaw 9668]

5 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

You missed Trump’s birther campaign? The “blacklash” wasn’t limited to the creation of the Tea Party. Trump’s campaign of racism appealed to a lot of people. (Thanks for letting me know how my state votes, btw.)

It’s never just one thing but the most significant thing in Hillary’s loss was probably talking about a new investigation into her emails, which was just the old one over again because they found some on Weiner’s laptop. If Comey kept his mouth shut (as dept. policy would dictate), or if at the same time he had announced that the FBI was also investigating connections between the Trump campaign and Russia, Hillary probably would’ve won.

Chances are good that Trump would’ve won the popular vote if he had been running against Bernie. Sure, he would’ve lost the votes from disgruntled Bernie Bros who thought Bernie got screwed (he didn’t), but Bernie wouldn’t have had the minority support that Hillary did. So I think it’s just horribly inaccurate to say that “Trump was elected for one reason and one reason only: Hillary Clinton.”

The crazy base gets all the credit for delivering WI/MI/PA to Trump, but Hillary's negatives are why those states were lost. Moderates stayed home or took a chance on Trump.

[Hermanator 6693]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Can they really put that toothpaste back in the tube?  They showed what they want.  I don't think most people, especially women, will fall for "oh, we was just kiddin".

This is why the Supreme Court ruling shocked me it actually ever happened. I had long figured that Republicans were never going to actually challenge to change Rowe because it would harm them to do so. Rowe was a built in vote magnet for them where they could drum up support from the religious fucks on this single issue and never have to do a single thing for those people.

Just keep the "well we need more support to get it done! The democrats keep blocking us and killing babies!" going indefinitely. For decades the republican leadership knew this. But then the loonies got too much power within the republican ranks and the idiots actually changed it and fucked themselves over. 

[WhatTheBuck 28615]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Somehow they couldn’t stop him beating a Vietnam War hero or a rich generic white guy.

Which gets into Trump tapping into something that got people out in 2016 when the Black guy wasn’t on the ballot.

Obama benefitted from GWB just being so bad. He didn’t avenge 9/11 like he promised, Iraq was a fiasco, he alienated our allies, he cost Tony Blair his job, he bungled education, he bungled Katrina, he came off looking like an idiot whenever he went off script, and he left the economy in the shitter. He started two wars, didn’t finish either of them, and left his successor holding the bag. That was a lot to ask John “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran” McCain to overcome even if he hadn’t selected Simple Sarah the Winking Bimbo as his running mate.

In 2012 the memory of the Bush years was still fresh, the economy had improved, it was nice having an intelligent, thoughtful, and articulate statesman in the White House again, and Romney/Ryan were such a perfect, boring stereotype of the privileged white elite. It was funny, though. I remember Karl Rove on Fox News practically throwing a fit, refusing to believe it when they called the election for Obama. Suck it, Turd Blossom, you sniveling, cheating little weasel.

[chainsaw 9668]

2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Obama benefitted from GWB just being so bad. He didn’t avenge 9/11 like he promised, Iraq was a fiasco, he alienated our allies, he cost Tony Blair his job, he bungled education, he bungled Katrina, he came off looking like an idiot whenever he went off script, and he left the economy in the shitter. He started two wars, didn’t finish either of them, and left his successor holding the bag. That was a lot to ask John “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran” McCain to overcome even if he hadn’t selected Simple Sarah the Winking Bimbo as his running mate.

In 2012 the memory of the Bush years was still fresh, the economy had improved, it was nice having an intelligent, thoughtful, and articulate statesman in the White House again, and Romney/Ryan were such a perfect, boring stereotype of the privileged white elite. It was funny, though. I remember Karl Rove on Fox News practically throwing a fit, refusing to believe it when they called the election for Obama. Suck it, Turd Blossom, you sniveling, cheating little weasel.

Obama knew what he was doing when he tapped Joe Biden as his running mate.

[Wally Fairway 5494]

Gotta say as a life time R voter, who hates to see what the R has become and/or stands for.
I have to say this pretty much summarizes how I view this battle

[tx 3 putt 75522]

 

[tx 3 putt 75522]

 

[G650 13334]

[WBT 20278]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Undoubtedly, some will.  I think you saw that in Texas.  A whole bunch of people in Tarrant and Collin counties went back to the GQP with Trump not on the ballot.

Yep.  Trump carried Texas by 5.5% in 2020.  In 2022 I think Paxton's race was the closest at 10%.  Some of that is the lower turnout but not all of it.

[Bama Chick 28595]

He also has a tough row to hoe because he’s trying to attract two blocs— what is left of the moderate GOP and the jihadist culture war wing that’s mad at Trump for not going all-in enough. This early head to head poll is one thing but here’s the thing that’s gonna hurt him— he’ll go out there in front of Trump and he can’t be more genuine than Trump. That’s Trump’s secret sauce, he’s an openly, genuinely sack of garbage and that is what sinks people who try to stand up against him in a party that has a base craving a genuine piece of garbage. 

Oh, DeSantis is an open genuine sack of garbage too - he’s just a chubby, short, pinched face, uptight sack of garbage with negative charisma.

DeSantis is evil but he doesn’t stir up the blood lust like Trump does.

[chainsaw 9668]

Just now, Bama Chick said:

Oh, DeSantis is an open genuine sack of garbage too - he’s just a chubby, short, pinched face, uptight sack of garbage with negative charisma.

DeSantis is evil but he doesn’t stir up the blood lust like Trump does.

If this is a looks fight, Trump is probably going to lose.

[Bama Chick 28595]

This is why the Supreme Court ruling shocked me it actually ever happened. I had long figured that Republicans were never going to actually challenge to change Rowe because it would harm them to do so. Rowe was a built in vote magnet for them where they could drum up support from the religious fucks on this single issue and never have to do a single thing for those people.
Just keep the "well we need more support to get it done! The democrats keep blocking us and killing babies!" going indefinitely. For decades the republican leadership knew this. But then the loonies got too much power within the republican ranks and the idiots actually changed it and fucked themselves over. 

Y’all thought that because you didn’t listen to us women.

It started out as a political wedge for folks like Reagan and the conservatives on the SC in the 80s and early 90s.

But starting with Bush II and continuing with Trump, their SC appointees we’re true believers. And these new lunatics in red states and in Congress are true believers too.

It’s been about controlling women’s bodies and putting sluts in their place. And has been for two decades.

But we were told over and over again we were overreacting.

[Pescado_Rojo 19262]

3 hours ago, aggie08 said:

I wonder what the price would be for Republican donors to buy off Trump to have him come up with some bullshit excuse for dropping out, and then endorsing Desantis.

He'd take their money and run anyway. 

[Macanudo 12798]

29 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

He'd take their money and run anyway. 

I'm guessing he'd about $350,000,000.

[Hermanator 6693]

25 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Y’all thought that because you didn’t listen to us women.

It started out as a political wedge for folks like Reagan and the conservatives on the SC in the 80s and early 90s.

But starting with Bush II and continuing with Trump, their SC appointees we’re true believers. And these new lunatics in red states and in Congress are true believers too.

It’s been about controlling women’s bodies and putting sluts in their place. And has been for two decades.

But we were told over and over again we were overreacting.

They did it to their own detriment. 

The last 3 elections have shown most Americans don't want extremism. With Biden embattled with high inflation, global conflict, an uncertain economy, and the overall perception he's just an empty suit the republicans still got their asses handed to them. Globally there's a growing trend towards calling organized religion bullshit, and it's big in the US among younger generations. The more they embrace extremism and religious nuttery the worse it will be for them. 

The thing is the democrats are very much to blame for the republicans having this much power. At any time the democrats have the ability to gerrymander their states the way republicans have, and given how even the way it is it's very close if they did that the republicans would never have the house again. That would force them to beg for the bargaining table to negotiate a federal law ending the practice, and that's where the democrats could make demands such as ratifying abortion rights into the Constitution. 

[The Dog 43483]

[YGIFS 19445]

He spent the last two years secretly taking pediatrist classes at CSU-Bakersfield and is gonna fix her fucked up donkey feet?  

[tx 3 putt 75522]

25 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

 

but hunter biden's laptop !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Pescado_Rojo 19262]

29 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Has to be a choice committee assignment. What do you think she wants? Judicial? I can't wait to hear this idiot ask questions in a public hearing. 

[SydneyCarton 47486]

35 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

 

4 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Has to be a choice committee assignment. What do you think she wants? Judicial? I can't wait to hear this idiot ask questions in a public hearing. 

He's promised to impeach Biden. That's what she wants, has wanted, and continues to want. 

[Brisketexan 103650]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

He's promised to impeach Biden. That's what she wants, has wanted, and continues to want. 

Correct.  Charges: Hunter's laptop Burisma China pizza parlor!  

Seriously, it's going to be that nonsensical, but that's exactly what is going to happen, on day 1 of the new Congress.

[The Dog 43483]

 

[YGIFS 19445]

Anybody else find it weird that you never see Jack Ma & Charlie Kirk's faces on the same, I mean in the same room, at the same time?