2022-2023 Winter Weather Thread

[Underdog 28,870]

Guess I’ll be snow blowing tonight maybe in morning? 

[Post Oak 20,327]

 

 

[YGIFS 19,453]

Thoughts and Prayers on the inevitable fucked-upness this causes in Texas.  

[UTexasFight 9,606]

Who’s available to install a transfer switch on my electric panel this week?

[YGIFS 19,453]

3 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Who’s available to install a transfer switch on my electric panel this week?

Electric, Electrical.  Whatever it takes.

[Hate 20,157]

Although he is wrong about the last time it snowed (it snowed here in December of 2017), this forecast would be a lot of fun.

 

[DaysOff 8,005]

come to butthead

[Brisketexan 105,575]

Christmas snow would be pretty.

Brutal cold crashing our grid and killing hundreds at Christmas wouldn't.

In this timeline, which is more likely?

[DigglerontheHoof 21,284]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Christmas snow would be pretty.

Brutal cold crashing our grid and killing hundreds at Christmas wouldn't.

In this timeline, which is more likely?

An Abbott Christmas; God bless us, every one. 

Edited December 12, 2022 by DigglerontheHoof

[utee94 15,879]

54 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Christmas snow would be pretty.

Brutal cold crashing our grid and killing hundreds at Christmas wouldn't.

In this timeline, which is more likely?

Guess it depends on how close to the ledge, you choose to live, on a daily basis?

[Brisketexan 105,575]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Guess it depends on how close to the ledge, you choose to live, on a daily basis?

[Storm the Field 5,305]

Spent the weekend in NYC where it was in the low 40's most of the time. Landing back in Houston yesterday to mid-70's and humid was a bit obnoxious. It has been a steady 15-20 degrees above average for the last 7 days straight. Most of the trees in my neighborhood still have the majority of their leaves and we're dealing with mosquitoes in freaking mid-December.

Definitely won't mind an extended stretch of cooler temps, and happy to see that current long-range forecasts currently envision a cold-but-not-freezing Xmas Weekend. That said, obviously hoping that the more aggressive models are overestimating and we're not looking at a deep freeze scenario with power outages and iced over roads.

[Hate 20,157]

From what I understand, the grid is ready and we shouldn't have the issues like we did last time.  Now, if there is an ice issue all bets are off.  Any impacts of ice would be locally and not really impact the "grid" everywhere in the state.  Here is the latest from the Euro leading up to Christmas Day.

[InkaUtexas 26,356]

Perfect timing for holiday travel.  

[Post Oak 20,327]

28 minutes ago, Hate said:

From what I understand, the grid is ready and we shouldn't have the issues like we did last time.  Now, if there is an ice issue all bets are off.  Any impacts of ice would be locally and not really impact the "grid" everywhere in the state.  Here is the latest from the Euro leading up to Christmas Day.

@Hate

Dumb question amnesty .

Help me out here. I think I know the answer but those temps on this for central Texas are just degrees below average temp right?

So if the average temp on the 24th is say 40 degrees then that -14 would mean the temp would be 26 right? Or am I missing something.

Thx

[Hate 20,157]

That is correct.  There are also quite a few models showing a coastal low forming after the cold air is in place.  That could result in some heavy snow/ice across portions of Texas.  It's still a long ways out, but it is something to keep an eye on.

[Skipper 6,319]

I only go over to that Storm2k forum a few times per year in advance of potential severe weather events.  Weird fucking bunch of weather nerds over there that for the most part seem to actively root for the worst case scenarios.  So pretty hard to tell the actually likelihood of any of the more extreme scenarios they are discussing.  

[Born to Run 6,583]

Going go Isla Mujeres Dec 24. Guessing snorkeling is out? Get to airport the day before and expect Thunderdome?

[Post Oak 20,327]

14 minutes ago, Hate said:

That is correct.  There are also quite a few models showing a coastal low forming after the cold air is in place.  That could result in some heavy snow/ice across portions of Texas.  It's still a long ways out, but it is something to keep an eye on.

Thx

[Hate 20,157]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I only go over to that Storm2k forum a few times per year in advance of potential severe weather events.  Weird fucking bunch of weather nerds over there that for the most part seem to actively root for the worst case scenarios.  So pretty hard to tell the actually likelihood of any of the more extreme scenarios they are discussing.  

You have to take each weather model posted that is over a 4-5 days out as possible outcomes, but not certain.  And even 4-5 days out, the actual details of exactly how everything will play out is speculation.  Whatever happens, it looks like there is a better than zero percent chance of extreme cold for us on the horizon.  If a coastal low forms with all of the cold air in place, even Texas could get a lot of snow.  Houston got 20 inches of snow back in 1895, so there is precedent for extreme winter weather events even this far south.  I lived in SA in January of 1985 when we got 13 inches of snow.  Everything I have read right now seems to indicate the models are forecasting the textbook scenario for winter weather in Texas.  We just have to wait and see now.  There are still even a few models showing 80 degrees on Christmas, but those are in the extreme minority now.

[Storm the Field 5,305]

15-day forecast on Weather.com is starting to pick up that strong front Hate has been talking about. Showing a low of 27 on 12/23 and 31 on 12/24 in Houston. Subtract 3 to get the current numbers for Austin.

 

[texasdago 7,589]

LOL 15-day forecasts 

Edited December 13, 2022 by texasdago

[UT_OB1 2,227]

On 12/11/2022 at 3:17 PM, UTexasFight said:

Who’s available to install a transfer switch on my electric panel this week?

Do you need to be permitted?  If not, I can probably do it. How hard can it be?  Wire nut the black to black and white to white and boom. Done. I gotch u. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by UT_OB1

[UT_OB1 2,227]

What is freezing fog?  Because that is what I have forecasted for Christmas day

Edited December 13, 2022 by UT_OB1

[Message Board User 12,397]

 

[Post Oak 20,327]

 

[Hate 20,157]

Keep weather aware today for North and East Texas.  There are already tornadoes reported in the Metroplex area.

[Hate 20,157]

And for the latest on the cold fronts.  From what I have read, it's rare for the weather models to agree on something like this so far out. 

[Post Oak 20,327]

Is @phdhorn on sabbatical?  Hope he's ok. Seems like he hasn't been around much.

[Parliament 14,373]

He's at Menards buying generators, knipco's and such.

[Deej 77,173]

4 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Is @phdhorn on sabbatical?  Hope he's ok. Seems like he hasn't been around much.

I'm beginning to think he and Randolph Duke are the same person.

[hornian 5,251]

6 minutes ago, Deej said:

I'm beginning to think he and Randolph Duke are the same person.

It is known. 

[RPM 26,429]

 

[atomheartbevo 90,054]

 

[Pimphand 6,051]

On 12/12/2022 at 7:20 AM, Hate said:

Although he is wrong about the last time it snowed (it snowed here in December of 2017), this forecast would be a lot of fun.

 

Just check the GFS models.... https://tinyurl.com/yrajjdyu

[Shaddie 1,666]

14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Just saw pics of damage in Grapevine. 

[Pimphand 6,051]

Snow in 49 states (not sure about Hawaii) before Christmas.  Grand solar minimum anyone?

Edited December 13, 2022 by Pimphand

[RPM 26,429]

22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Just got a text from a guy at work near Keller. They had a Stage 2 Tornado Warning (head to shelter) and a power outage at the same time. I got off work just in time.

[Trey3216 15,380]

50 minutes ago, RPM said:

Just got a text from a guy at work near Keller. They had a Stage 2 Tornado Warning (head to shelter) and a power outage at the same time. I got off work just in time.

Yep.  My Sister & BiL (they live in Haslet) were on their way to a final checkup for her baby due next week and got caught up in it.  Damage all over the place that way.  The OB office had lost all power, so they had to head back home.  

[Parliament 14,373]

How long until Oklahoma trailer houses are landing in your front yard?

[BabaYaga 15,375]

1 hour ago, RPM said:

Just got a text from a guy at work near Keller. They had a Stage 2 Tornado Warning (head to shelter) and a power outage at the same time. I got off work just in time.

Friend in Keller reported no damage and it passed right over them.  Kids in HS in Frisco had to shelter in place, but just heavy rain.  Now I need this front to do an about face, head west for a few hours, and hover over Coleman for a solid week.  Tanks getting dry.  

[RPM 26,429]

 

[Brisketexan 105,575]

45 minutes ago, RPM said:

 

On the bright side, Discount Tire can probably fix all that with a coupla patches and be up and running in about an hour.

[Trey3216 15,380]

25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

On the bright side, Discount Tire can probably fix all that with a coupla patches and be up and running in about an hour.

Not until they plug the 200 cars in line 

[Wally Pryor 5,310]

3 hours ago, RPM said:

Just got a text from a guy at work near Keller. They had a Stage 2 Tornado Warning (head to shelter) and a power outage at the same time. I got off work just in time.

Is a Stage 1 Tornado Warning when you can go outside and record the thing when it's 100 yards from you?

I thought you take shelter under any Tornado Warning. Never heard of the stage thing. 

[Wally Pryor 5,310]

dp

Edited December 13, 2022 by Wally Pryor

[Brisketexan 105,575]

4 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Is a Stage 1 Tornado Warning when you can go outside and record the thing when it's 100 yards from you?

I thought you take shelter under any Tornado Warning. Never heard of the stage thing. 

[Storm the Field 5,305]

Currently close to 80 in Houston, despite 100% cloud cover and high winds. Temps should start dropping later tonight after showers pass through. Tomorrow will be the first day this month without a high 10+ degrees above average. Then some really nice 65/45 and sunny days on tap for Thursday and Friday. 

[atomheartbevo 90,054]

1 hour ago, Wally Pryor said:

Is a Stage 1 Tornado Warning when you can go outside and record the thing when it's 100 yards from you?

I thought you take shelter under any Tornado Warning. Never heard of the stage thing. 

[Deej 77,173]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

On the bright side, Discount Tire can probably fix all that with a coupla patches and be up and running in about an hour.

Was it a tornado, or just a little old lady?