2022-2023 Winter Weather Thread

[MoJames 8244]

4-6 inches of snow yesterday. Need more tho.

[UTCzech III 2907]

Cool front blowing into Taylor right now, feels fantastic.

[Post Oak 20209]

Local KWTX just started talking about Xmas week.

 

[Wally Pryor 5261]

8 hours ago, Post Oak said:

Is @phdhorn on sabbatical?  Hope he's ok. Seems like he hasn't been around much.

Prepping for his holiday weather camp (13 and under).

[miguelito 11255]

1 hour ago, MoJames said:

4-6 inches yesterday. Need more tho.

You sounds like my wife.

 

 

 

 

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

21 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

[RPM 26318]

6 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

Is a Stage 1 Tornado Warning when you can go outside and record the thing when it's 100 yards from you?

I thought you take shelter under any Tornado Warning. Never heard of the stage thing. 

It's a work safety protocol. We have stage 1, 2 & 3. Basically telling you where to go. Stage 3 is everyone head to the basement and pray.

[Parliament 14247]

4 hours ago, miguelito said:

You sounds like my wife.

 

 

 

 

Don't worry.  There are plenty of Surly posters giving her more.

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

On 12/12/2022 at 9:09 PM, Message Board User said:

 

 

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

Sounds like sleet hitting us in Spring right now.

[YGIFS 19449]

Muh, muh...muh god...quit cloaking up my weather thread!  

[YGIFS 19449]

FWIW---for us in Central Texas, weather.com and some other models backing off the hard freezes for next week/holiday weekend.  Highs near 50 and soft freezes in hill country type of stuff.  Today and tomorrow still reaching 70 so gonna try and warm up the house before temps drop off the cliff on Friday and let the furnace rest.  Monday rain still holding steady across all websites which is good, we could still use it and nobody does anything fun first Monday of Holiday Break anyway.  Typical seasonal weather most of next week leading up to Christmas with very little precip so we can all have our kiddo activities outside.  

some bad news though for our football team, looks like precip chances high in San Antonio for the AlamoBowl.  Seattle-based Huskies are used to that, we aren't.  /scaresyoutodeathMB

[Steamboat1874 4050]

40 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

FWIW---for us in Central Texas, weather.com and some other models backing off the hard freezes for next week/holiday weekend.  Highs near 50 and soft freezes in hill country type of stuff.  Today and tomorrow still reaching 70 so gonna try and warm up the house before temps drop off the cliff on Friday and let the furnace rest.  Monday rain still holding steady across all websites which is good, we could still use it and nobody does anything fun first Monday of Holiday Break anyway.  Typical seasonal weather most of next week leading up to Christmas with very little precip so we can all have our kiddo activities outside.  

some bad news though for our football team, looks like precip chances high in San Antonio for the AlamoBowl.  Seattle-based Huskies are used to that, we aren't.  /scaresyoutodeathMB

Uh what ?

It is going to rain inside the Alamodome ?

[YGIFS 19449]

Just now, Steamboat1874 said:

Uh what ?

It is going to rain inside the Alamodome ?

It's in the basement.  Basements can leak, but they can't get rain.  DUH! 

[texasdago 7568]

Weather.com and big national weather sites are largely hot garbage for local coverage.  Find a local news guy you can trust.  I like the CBS Austin team as they are decidedly non-hype.

Edited December 14, 2022 by texasdago

[Brisketexan 105079]

4 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Weather.com and big national weather sites are largely hot garbage for local coverage.  Find a local news guy you can trust.  I like the CBS Austin team as they are decidedly non-hype.

Yeomans on KXAN is pretty damn solid as well.  When he and Jim Spencer were providing round-the-clock coverage of the February 2021 event (lead-up and once it was happening), it was as good as it gets.

[utee94 15808]

Only local weather I trust is @phdhorn .

[Brisketexan 105079]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Only local weather I trust is @phdhorn .

Frankie is not amused by your shenanigans.....

[YGIFS 19449]

32 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Weather.com and big national weather sites are largely hot garbage for local coverage.  Find a local news guy you can trust.  I like the CBS Austin team as they are decidedly non-hype.

Yeah, I mainly look to KXAN/Yeoman.  Hate does some good stuff on here but he's near Houston and whenever I ask him about Austin weather, he just screams at me, "They shut down all the good restaurants after we moved, Austin sucks...get out before the.....!"  And then he cuts out.  

PhDHorn was obviously my favorite.  We lived on opposite ends of 2244, but for a couple years there, his exact rainfall amounts matched mine (though I'm several inches longer).  So whatever he says about Austin-area weather is still gospel to me.  But I dunno where the hell he went.  This time of year...ya' miss him...

[Skipper 6128]

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

 

some bad news though for our football team, looks like precip chances high in San Antonio for the AlamoBowl.  Seattle-based Huskies are used to that, we aren't.  /scaresyoutodeathMB

I mean not only is it in a dome, from what I understand, precipitation is most difficult thing to predict far in advance.  Trying to predict the chance of rain 15 days out seems worthless.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Skipper

[YGIFS 19449]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I mean not only is it in a dome, from what I understand, precipitation is most difficult thing to predict far in advance.  Trying to predict the change of rain 15 days out seems worthless.

Yeah see, but thats what makes the Dome prediction more reliable.  Because it's played in the Alamodome...the precip levels are much easier to predict this far out.  And so far, the high chances of rain, perhaps even wintry mix, will favor the Seattle-based Huskies...not us.  Especially with us missing our two best ground attack guys 

[texasdago 7568]

I like Eric Berger's quote this morning on Space City Weather...

 

"We’re still talking about a forecast 8 to 10 days from now so, you know, it’s basically blindfolds and crayons at this point."

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

2 hours ago, Steamboat1874 said:

Uh what ?

It is going to rain inside the Alamodome ?

It wouldn't be the first time.

 

 

 

[YGIFS 19449]

Warriors…..come IN to play-ay-ay

Edited December 14, 2022 by YGIFS

[Vanderpool 23]

2 hours ago, texasdago said:

Weather.com and big national weather sites are largely hot garbage for local coverage.  Find a local news guy you can trust.  I like the CBS Austin team as they are decidedly non-hype.

Anytime someone quotes weather.com or whatever their phone says for the weather, I get all judgey. Ain’t nobody got time for that stupidity!

Edited December 14, 2022 by Vanderpool

[Brisketexan 105079]

2 hours ago, texasdago said:

blindfolds and crayons

Accurately describes every single bit of analysis or opinion, on any matter, found on this site.

[YGIFS 19449]

I think you mean metaphorically blindfolded by stupidity and sharpies  in lieu of crayons.  

Dumbasses with markers, that's how you affect extreme weather.  You fucking new here or something?  

Edited December 14, 2022 by YGIFS

[atomheartbevo 89630]

1 hour ago, Vanderpool said:

Anytime someone quotes weather.com or whatever their phone says for the weather, I get all judgey. Ain’t nobody got time for that stupidity!

At this point, weather apps on a phone are good for one thing: The radar.

[Biff Tannen 45665]

4 hours ago, YGIFS said:

Dumbasses with markers, that's how you affect extreme weather. 

And cheap fabric and dim lighting.

[YGIFS 19449]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

And cheap fabric and dim lighting.

Don't you fucking lecture me on rainfall, I literally sold raincoats in the garment district for 35 years.  

[Welch 635]

Bob Rose is also worth following.  He’s leaning towards the “not quite as cold as some models are saying” for Christmas weekend, but he’s pretty clear that everything’s still on the table.

Link

Usually updates once every weekday.

[Hate 20107]

From a poster on one of the forums I follow, this is in regards to all of the factors that need to come into play for us to get a really cold event here in Texas:

Quote

Arctic Air next week - it's likely happening.

So, in my mind the questions left are down to the following:

- Just how cold is the arctic airmass?
- What is the magnitude of high pressure - the higher it is, the more likely it heads this way
- Will the be any blocking N of Texas? (Probably NO)
- What is the Eastward bias of the airmass?
- How much snowpack will there be north of Texas?
- Other moderating factors?

All of these factors will determine just how cold it gets and every scenario is on the table at this point.  It could be seasonal cold, it could be a little colder and have precipitation, or it could be really fucking cold and dry.  We'll know more by Saturday and Sunday. 

[Wally Pryor 5261]

10 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeomans on KXAN is pretty damn solid as well.  When he and Jim Spencer were providing round-the-clock coverage of the February 2021 event (lead-up and once it was happening), it was as good as it gets.

Yeomans is really good. Guessing with his depth of knowledge, personality and looks he'll be getting offers from major markets soon, if not already.

[Hate 20107]

Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner. He is the lead meteorologist for Harris County and someone that I really respect and listen to.  Keep in m ind, this is for SE Texas, but it applies to Central Texas as well.  The temps of course may be a few degrees colder for CenTex.

Quote

Late Next Week:
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to support the unleashing of an arctic air mass into the US around the middle of next week with an arrival into TX around the 22nd. This cold air mass is driven by a significant 1050-1065mb arctic high pressure dome that develops over NW Canada later this weekend and sinks southward toward the US/Montana border early next week. Some of the deterministic model runs want to push the arctic air more east with a glancing (still cold) blow across TX. Historical analogs suggest that once this air mass begins to move southward it is coming south fast and cold as global models tend to struggle with the extreme density of such air masses and are historically too warm and slow with the arrival of such air masses into the southern plains. Still need to see how cold the air mass becomes this weekend in NW Canada before having a decent idea of how cold temperatures will be in the southern plains and TX late next week.

For now will go with an arrival of the arctic front across SE TX on the 22nd/23rd with significantly colder temperatures. Averaging out the various longer range guidance outputs suggests at least 2-3 nights below freezing over the entire area with highs in the 30’s around Christmas Eve/Day. This may need to be trended colder as the intensity of this air mass comes into better focus early next week. The NAM usually does a good job with these sorts of air masses and we are still 3-4 days before coming into the view of that guidance. For now much of the global guidance is fairly dry behind the arctic front, so at the moment no entertainment of freezing or frozen precipitation.

 

[Hate 20107]

And since PHD is mia, this guy does a pretty good job of explaining the setup for the next 10 days.

 

[Storm the Field 5294]

Absolutely perfect today. 51 and 30% humidity right now. Not a cloud in the sky and hardly any wind. Going be in the low 60's this afternoon. Definitely outdoor happy hour weather.

Pretty solid weekend on tap, though not quite as idyllic as today. Looks to be quite chilly Saturday night.

Coldest weather seems set to arrive overnight on 12/22 into the morning of 12/23. Gonna be visiting in-laws in Baton Rouge that day. Current forecast showing a low of 22. Don't know if it will get THAT cold, but I don't think anyone needs to worry about an unseasonably warm Xmas weekend. 

[Orange&White 5522]

This is all well and good but I am not falling for it until this storm has a NAME.

No storm worth its salt doesn't have a name.

[Brisketexan 105079]

4 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

This is all well and good but I am not falling for it until this storm has a NAME.

No storm worth its salt doesn't have a name.

If its make is Inigo Montoya....we should best watch our ass.

[YGIFS 19449]

I was gonna buy some firewood this week but now i have thousands of dollars of worthless trading cards to burn with my grid inevitably gives out.  

[Brisketexan 105079]

3 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I was gonna buy some firewood this week but now i have thousands of dollars of worthless trading cards to burn with my grid inevitably gives out.  

So...what am I missing with this "trading card" story/meme?

[YGIFS 19449]

I’ll tell you at Waffle House.  Tomorrow morning?  I didn’t even tell you about our mutual friend and fitlump at DQ holiday party last weekend.  I am forgetful in my old age 

[Brisketexan 105079]

5 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I’ll tell you at Waffle House.  Tomorrow morning?  I didn’t even tell you about our mutual friend and fitlump at DQ holiday party last weekend.  I am forgetful in my old age 

I'd KILL for a Waffle House visit.  Have a morning meeting.  But I might could do lunch?  You know, they'll serve the full menu all day long.

[Orange&White 5522]

43 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I’ll tell you at Waffle House.  Tomorrow morning?  I didn’t even tell you about our mutual friend and fitlump at DQ holiday party last weekend.  I am forgetful in my old age 

I'm sorry, but you're not allowed to just drop this nugget and not follow through. I will be watching the other thread for a detailed report.

[Hate 20107]

Wait...Dairy Queen has a holiday party??

[Brisketexan 105079]

5 minutes ago, Hate said:

Wait...Dairy Queen has a holiday party??

That you automatically assume that YGIFS wouldn't be welcome at the Demented Queers holiday party is super-judgmental of you.  For shame.  It's a great party.

[Hate 20107]

I've known Ygifs for 20+ years, so I know he would not only be welcome but would fit right into that kind of party.

[Voldemort86 2259]

15 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Absolutely perfect today. 51 and 30% humidity right now. Not a cloud in the sky and hardly any wind. Going be in the low 60's this afternoon. Definitely outdoor happy hour weather.

Pretty solid weekend on tap, though not quite as idyllic as today. Looks to be quite chilly Saturday night.

Coldest weather seems set to arrive overnight on 12/22 into the morning of 12/23. Gonna be visiting in-laws in Baton Rouge that day. Current forecast showing a low of 22. Don't know if it will get THAT cold, but I don't think anyone needs to worry about an unseasonably warm Xmas weekend. 

70-80 degree Christmas’s suck balls unless you’re in Arizona or Hawaii I guess.

[Hate 20107]

The GFS gives some parts of Texas a white Christmas.  It's a long way out and there is probably only a 10% chance of this verifying, but it is something to watch.

[TornACL 7698]

Repeat of 2004?

[texasdago 7568]

2 hours ago, TornACL said:

Repeat of 2004?

No, we're not playing Michigan in the Rose Bowl.