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2022-2023 Winter Weather Thread

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HornOnTheBayou

HornOnTheBayou 8919

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Still got the rv. Fixed the roof so we are good there. Wife is making a fire. They say it’s. Due back by noon. We will be fine for a couple days at least.  No water bc we have a well and it’s powered by electricity. Going to Xmas eve service tonight so can’t just drink beer instead. 

You might want to consult a calendar, chief.

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The Dog
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This was a big tree in the park behind our house: Same tree today:

GhostOfTomJoad
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The "chain saw" my wife ordered for me on Amazon the other day. Should make short work of the live oaks

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I might go for a jog and see if I end up governor.

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HenryJames

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17 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Still got the rv. Fixed the roof so we are good there. Wife is making a fire. They say it’s. Due back by noon. We will be fine for a couple days at least.  No water bc we have a well and it’s powered by electricity. Going to Xmas eve service tonight so can’t just drink beer instead. 

Did you mean to send this as a telegram?

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Spaulding Smails

Spaulding Smails 1552

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11 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

1989? Was 7 F in Houston. I was a kid but remember it well
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1989_United_States_cold_wave#Texas

I went deer hunting with my dad at his friend's lease in Lampasas during that cold snap.  Two things I vividly remember:

-Making homemade sternos out of lighter fluid and a roll of toilet paper in a coffee can.

-Going to grab my dad's beer for him while he was quartering a doe.  It was frozen solid after sitting on the table for less than an hour.  

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HouTex

HouTex 1866

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11 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

When was the last major winter storm that affected so much of our country this time of year?

Was it the year Rudolf moved up from the minor league? Can someone dig up Burl Ives and ask him?

As mentioned, 1989 was bad, but December 1983 was way worse.  That was my senior year at UT.  IIRC, the temp stayed below freezing for about a week or so in the Houston area.  We never lost power, but our pipes froze in the attic.  We were deer hunting for much of that cold snap and it was so cold we didn't see one fucking deer.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19189

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

1700 homes without electricity since 1:00 AM in The Woodlands High School vicinity.  Fortunately not at my house, at least not yet.  Fuck Greg Abbott.

I’m in the safe zone from that outage by about half a mile; usually my neighborhood is the one to get its shit knocked out but so far we have lucked out. They’ve been without power over there since 1:00AM. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19189

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20 minutes ago, HouTex said:

As mentioned, 1989 was bad, but December 1983 was way worse.  That was my senior year at UT.  IIRC, the temp stayed below freezing for about a week or so in the Houston area.  We never lost power, but our pipes froze in the attic.  We were deer hunting for much of that cold snap and it was so cold we didn't see one fucking deer.

1983 is the one I remember being the worst although ‘89 was rough its own self.  My cousins and I would always shoot off fireworks at Grandma’s house on Christmas Eve.  We got about five minutes into it in ‘83 and said fuck this shit.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62568

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Things never got close on the supply side this morning. They just got expensive. Big difference. None of that gets passed on to residential consumers at this point, so all anyone should notice is that things worked fine with very high overall load.

Folks who lost power lost power because that happens everyday, especially days with high wind gusts. There were no rolling blackouts and they were never close to being contemplated. Today is the highest load day and most extreme temps for this snap. Tomorrow there is no wind, but I know folks are certainly cheering for the reduced load to offset that and keep prices manageable versus what happened this morning in the real time market.

If the wave trend holds, there will be another one of these in mid-late January. Same severity or worse is not guaranteed, but could be pretty cold. 

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Steel Shank

Steel Shank 9421

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We call it Xmas eve service but we have one at 6:00 pm the night before Xmas eve and then 4 during the actual day of Xmas eve.  Tomorrow we are doing Xmas with wife’s family, thus the early early service. 

aight

Also, what are you wearing to he Xmas eve service?

Edited by Steel Shank
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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11819

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44 minutes ago, Spaulding Smails said:

I went deer hunting with my dad at his friend's lease in Lampasas during that cold snap.  Two things I vividly remember:

-Making homemade sternos out of lighter fluid and a roll of toilet paper in a coffee can.

-Going to grab my dad's beer for him while he was quartering a doe.  It was frozen solid after sitting on the table for less than an hour.  

I was hunting outside Llano.  Finally shot a doe right before dusk.  My feet were freezing in the blind and hands hurt so bad I could barely gut it. Took it back to camp, hung it up, and decided to go in the shack to warm my hands at the fire.  Went back out to skin it about an hour later, and she was frozen solid.  I said fuck it and went back inside.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6575

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21 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Things never got close on the supply side this morning. They just got expensive. Big difference. None of that gets passed on to residential consumers at this point, so all anyone should notice is that things worked fine with very high overall load.

Folks who lost power lost power because that happens everyday, especially days with high wind gusts. There were no rolling blackouts and they were never close to being contemplated. Today is the highest load day and most extreme temps for this snap. Tomorrow there is no wind, but I know folks are certainly cheering for the reduced load to offset that and keep prices manageable versus what happened this morning in the real time market.

If the wave trend holds, there will be another one of these in mid-late January. Same severity or worse is not guaranteed, but could be pretty cold. 

We’re you looking at this below on the ERCOT site? Closest demand/supply came at 7 when people wake up. Noticed the price spike at the same time. 
 

 

C2ECC5EC-2074-44D4-A9CA-C11FC9BEFCB5.png

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Cletus

Cletus 57

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14 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Anyone in CP experiencing natural gas outages? A friend a few blocks away near Naumann Elementary who lives in that unincorporated sliver is reporting he & his neighbors are out, and the help line is busy.

Yup I am at Hatch/620 and have little to no pressure. Atmos is supposed to be out to adjust it. same thing happened in 21

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utee94

utee94 15808

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Anyone in CP experiencing natural gas outages? A friend a few blocks away near Naumann Elementary who lives in that unincorporated sliver is reporting he & his neighbors are out, and the help line is busy.

 

10 minutes ago, Cletus said:

Yup I am at Hatch/620 and have little to no pressure. Atmos is supposed to be out to adjust it. same thing happened in 21

That sucks, sorry to hear it.  No issues here right by CPHS.  We also never had any issues with power, water, or gas, during 2021.

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Cletus

Cletus 57

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Posted
2 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

I’m down the road from you so if you need some over easy eggs just let me know. Gas still good here. 

I would take you up on that but I am at work. I had to get a chiller up and running so my ice rinks didn't melt. Go figure.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62568

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22 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

We’re you looking at this below on the ERCOT site? Closest demand/supply came at 7 when people wake up. Noticed the price spike at the same time. 
 

 

C2ECC5EC-2074-44D4-A9CA-C11FC9BEFCB5.png

ERCOT has done a good job developing that app, so it useful for folks looking to better understand the grid, for sure. 

Part of my livelihood depends upon this space, so we use more advanced data. If you want to see some things that get a little closer to industry and dork out, here are few:

This is a link to the real time pricing by 15 minute interval, ie., what the market cleared at: 

https://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/20221223_real_time_spp.html

In the link above, the columns to the right are most indicative of costs to utilities in the market, the load zones. The one with AE in the title is Austin Energy, the one with CPS is San Antonio for those that care.

This is a link below to what the Day Ahead Market (DAM) cleared at, ie., a glimpse into what kind of load and scarcity the market is actually anticipating: 

https://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/20221223_dam_spp.html

Tomorrow’s market will clear around 1pm today. The link above shows you that heavy load and certain scarcity were anticipated for today. The reason real time prices went even higher this morning is that the forecasted load ended up being off by like 9,000 MWs this morning, which is considerable. That’s an indicator to me that they were expecting less commercial load today than what come in, because that would be a fuckton of residential overage. 

This link is to the Abilene station on WindGuru. It’s one of the better indicators of what kind of wind gen you can expect on the grid from the West Zone in Texas. Tomorrow is abnormally not windy, which is common following a truly extreme arctic front. 

https://www.windguru.cz/85

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texasdago

texasdago 7568

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Posted
1 hour ago, Sandman said:

Woke up to 6F here in the OKC burbs. Power is fine but no hot water. Cold comes out the tap just fine but if I move the handle over to hot, water flow stops. Only supposed to get up to 20F, fuck. 

Ditto in SW Austin... master bath hot water is on vacation.  Have a space heater going under the sink we think is the main culprit.  We'll see.

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RPM

RPM 26318

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It was 54° in the house when I got home at 7 am. Central heater was running full blast. I turned on the oven, set it at 350° and left the door open. It's up to 67° so far.

But then I see this. We got a gotdamn level 1 national emergency!

 

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Sandman

Sandman 3403

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Posted
1 hour ago, texasdago said:

Ditto in SW Austin... master bath hot water is on vacation.  Have a space heater going under the sink we think is the main culprit.  We'll see.

I just put a heater on the pipes coming out of the water heater. Hoping this works. Otherwise, I have to go to my MIL house to take a shower. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19068

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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Things never got close on the supply side this morning. They just got expensive. Big difference. None of that gets passed on to residential consumers at this point, so all anyone should notice is that things worked fine with very high overall load.

Folks who lost power lost power because that happens everyday, especially days with high wind gusts. There were no rolling blackouts and they were never close to being contemplated. Today is the highest load day and most extreme temps for this snap. Tomorrow there is no wind, but I know folks are certainly cheering for the reduced load to offset that and keep prices manageable versus what happened this morning in the real time market.

If the wave trend holds, there will be another one of these in mid-late January. Same severity or worse is not guaranteed, but could be pretty cold. 

Thanks for the updates man. We are still without (we lose power really easily) and I just called to get status bc we’ve got some olds with us that are in front of the fireplace with blankets, but it’s a manageable 53 degrees inside. The good news is this is just run of the mill so we will get back sooner than later I guess. They said noon but it’s been out for 9 hours now which is a lot for normal for us. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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Posted

Low of 18 or so here in Houston (Oak Forest). All indoor faucets were still dripping when I woke up this morning. We’ve since lost nearly all water pressure on one side of the house (side farthest from main water line). There are reports of similar situations throughout the neighborhood and several water main busts in the city, so not really sure if we’ve got a frozen pipe or if this is a system issue. Water pressure not in great shape on the “good” side either. No outwardly obvious signs of busted pipes yet.

Fun game.

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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Thanks for the updates man. We are still without (we lose power really easily) and I just called to get status bc we’ve got some olds with us that are in front of the fireplace with blankets, but it’s a manageable 53 degrees inside. The good news is this is just run of the mill so we will get back sooner than later I guess. They said noon but it’s been out for 9 hours now which is a lot for normal for us. 

That blows. One of the most frustrating things about Houston is that certain areas lose power when you look at the lines the wrong way. At least it’s very sunny today, letting some slight in the house should help and then hopefully the power will kick back on. And with power outages not widespread you can always leave the house. Hope it gets turned back on for y’all soon.
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19068

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4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


That blows. One of the most frustrating things about Houston is that certain areas lose power when you look at the lines the wrong way. At least it’s very sunny today, letting some slight in the house should help and then hopefully the power will kick back on. And with power outages not widespread you can always leave the house. Hope it gets turned back on for y’all soon.

Oh no doubt. It means that it’s not dangerous for our olds. They can go get a motel room if it comes down to it. 

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Fuck Tim Beck

Fuck Tim Beck 3815

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, HouTex said:

As mentioned, 1989 was bad, but December 1983 was way worse.  That was my senior year at UT.  IIRC, the temp stayed below freezing for about a week or so in the Houston area.  We never lost power, but our pipes froze in the attic.  We were deer hunting for much of that cold snap and it was so cold we didn't see one fucking deer.

December 83 was my first deer hunt. 10 years old and we went out near McGregor. Never saw a deer. Got home and I walked across the swimming pool. Ice was about a foot thick.

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Deej

Deej 76755

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Posted
3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

1983 is the one I remember being the worst although ‘89 was rough its own self.  My cousins and I would always shoot off fireworks at Grandma’s house on Christmas Eve.  We got about five minutes into it in ‘83 and said fuck this shit.

 

alison-brie.gif

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ImissWallyPryor

ImissWallyPryor 9046

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Posted (edited)

Lows at our cabin in the Black Hills were -23 two nights ago (wind chills -50s), with highs still below zero. It was -12 last night when my daughter and fiancé came over for steaks. I still wanted to grill (lump charcoal and wood, too cold for propane) because that’s what I do, but everyone freaked out that I would even consider such a thing. I wanted to set a PR and have a story, but I gave in and used cast iron. I should’ve held my ground.

Shoveling snow was a bitch in windchills around -30 yesterday.

I just checked our propane tank, and we are <10% full. Our supplier has a program that’s supposed to keep us from running out, but with our erratic usage, they fail in that mission every few years. I should’ve checked it earlier, but at least it didn’t run out on Christmas Day.

All of the state and federal highways have a no travel advisory. The interstate highways across the state are officially closed, so some family can’t get here, at least for now. My daughter barely made her connection in MSP Monday night or she would still be there. Family driving from Texas are stranded in Chadron, Nebraska. 

Highs are rebounding into the 40s then low-50s beginning Christmas Day, so that will be a welcome change.

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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5537

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Posted
5 hours ago, HouTex said:

As mentioned, 1989 was bad, but December 1983 was way worse.  That was my senior year at UT.  IIRC, the temp stayed below freezing for about a week or so in the Houston area.  We never lost power, but our pipes froze in the attic.  We were deer hunting for much of that cold snap and it was so cold we didn't see one fucking deer.

I was growing up in the RGV at that time of both of those freezes.      1983 significantly hurt the citrus industry....   1989 virtually killed it and with that, the face of the RGV.   Most of that land was prime farm land.   It had the irrigation systems that were pioneered and engineered by people who knew how to work the land .    When the citrus growers decided to give it up, most of that land went on to become concrete parking lots and the such.  

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austintx

austintx 82

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, closetojumping said:

ERCOT has done a good job developing that app, so it useful for folks looking to better understand the grid, for sure. 

Part of my livelihood depends upon this space, so we use more advanced data. If you want to see some things that get a little closer to industry and dork out, here are few:

This is a link to the real time pricing by 15 minute interval, ie., what the market cleared at: 

https://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/20221223_real_time_spp.html

In the link above, the columns to the right are most indicative of costs to utilities in the market, the load zones. The one with AE in the title is Austin Energy, the one with CPS is San Antonio for those that care.

This is a link below to what the Day Ahead Market (DAM) cleared at, ie., a glimpse into what kind of load and scarcity the market is actually anticipating: 

https://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/20221223_dam_spp.html

Tomorrow’s market will clear around 1pm today. The link above shows you that heavy load and certain scarcity were anticipated for today. The reason real time prices went even higher this morning is that the forecasted load ended up being off by like 9,000 MWs this morning, which is considerable. That’s an indicator to me that they were expecting less commercial load today than what come in, because that would be a fuckton of residential overage. 

This link is to the Abilene station on WindGuru. It’s one of the better indicators of what kind of wind gen you can expect on the grid from the West Zone in Texas. Tomorrow is abnormally not windy, which is common following a truly extreme arctic front. 

https://www.windguru.cz/85

Do you trade? I've been trading ERCOT for the last 8 years give or take.

Edited by austintx
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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30188

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So - 2 days ago I’m riding along, and I noticed someone threw away an older igloo cooler. 
I knew cold weather was coming and had this idea I always wanted to try. Here was my opportunity. I removed the lid and then lined the inside with metallic insulation.  I then drilled an inch and a half circle in the side where I inserted a lamp holder with two electrical prongs on the bottom. Finally, I inserted a 150 Watt reptile terrarium heat emitter - the bulb rated at 120 degrees. To finish up I drilled four holes in the back where I inserted rope that I could tie to the pipe and faucet and snug the whole damn thing next to where my outside exposed water pipe enters my home. (why idiots in the 1960s did this I have no idea. )

Here are some temperature gun readings outside near my contraption. The readings are lower than the actual temperature outside.  But is the wind is blowing pretty hard, I’m sure the temperature for exposed metal and plastic is lower. See pictures below:
0DF805EF-E5B6-4BA2-B034-C49D6C86C306.thumb.jpeg.9ef3ba5d88ba41de4c87359b97b2dea2.jpegBDB5D394-145D-49E2-8156-CE43D2F7BA43.thumb.jpeg.bc18e4a8d8f0759d49471840b5ea8213.jpeg
I took these temperature readings where the plug enters the cooler, and also took readings on both side of the box next to the brick.  I think I’m good.
C0396F53-8DAF-44C1-8F81-691C59191E94.thumb.jpeg.76ee266c89ee37596d95d6d7aa674c22.jpegAF851CC1-9570-4EFF-A6C7-BEB7CC7726AD.thumb.jpeg.432d0bf0bef1a29431f79c2926b54e0a.jpeg87CC8E6F-4FEB-4417-92F6-74F58B695FB1.thumb.jpeg.25aa4b509d327aa1dfebf8217f323a40.jpeg
 
 
5B31FAFB-7BFD-442A-BEBF-A7C06ABC01E1.thumb.jpeg.43037310a5b5ae6fabbc1a6da7797f70.jpeg

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