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2022-2023 Winter Weather Thread

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The Dog
The Dog

This was a big tree in the park behind our house: Same tree today:

GhostOfTomJoad
GhostOfTomJoad

The "chain saw" my wife ordered for me on Amazon the other day. Should make short work of the live oaks

HenryJames
HenryJames

I might go for a jog and see if I end up governor.

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CleverNickname

CleverNickname 1319

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ten Bears said:

Thanks a lot. That was my greatest irrational fear. Now it my greatest rational fear. 

A few years ago (10?) I was taking the 183 South flyover from 45 after midnight, whilst rocking out (Fun "All Alone") when my glasses flew off my head into the backseat. Things seemed dire but I was able to make a peep with myself fingers on my left hand, slow down, and drive with one near-sighted eye until I could pull over. They never made a second album. 

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MissingInAction

MissingInAction 25107

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

If the @phdhorn is Franky rumors are true, that actually makes some sense if you've met @MissingInAction in person. Some strong resemblances.

There may be something to this conspiracy!

Now I have to punch you in your uterus.

GET YOUR PEPSI AND YOUR CHINESE FOOD!

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

Posted
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One by one, every ISD in Central Texas is announcing cancelled for Wednesday.  We ain't got it as bad as you folks from Waco and on up North, y'all stay safe  

Working idea from district leadership is if this thing finally melts Thursday overnight, idea would be delayed/staggered starts on Thursday morning and back to normal.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Yeah, yeah I'm still alive. I'm not Missing in Action, at least that's what the Chinese and Russians told me at the ladies' garden meeting (yeah, it's a reference to something).

Not a poster much any more, by design.  Weather? Sometimes if needed. This one's borderline.

Seriously, what do y' want to know about this, if anything?  I'll try to answer.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Yeah, yeah I'm still alive. I'm not Missing in Action, at least that's what the Chinese and Russians told me at the ladies' garden meeting (yeah, it's a reference to something).

Not a poster much any more, by design.  Weather? Sometimes if needed. This one's borderline.

Seriously, what do y' want to know about this, if anything?  I'll try to answer.

How long have you been a degenerate ginger and why did you pick the name MissingInAction?

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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The two people on 130 that were hurt...both had left their vehicles, one jumped over the barrier to avoid being hit by another car, the second was hit by a car and went over the barrier. Life threatening injuries. 

The person killed on Ben White...the EMS guy on KXAN was vague about it. Said it was a pedestrian but not someone getting out of a vehicle. 

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UnivTex34

UnivTex34 1763

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Yeah, yeah I'm still alive. I'm not Missing in Action, at least that's what the Chinese and Russians told me at the ladies' garden meeting (yeah, it's a reference to something).

Not a poster much any more, by design.  Weather? Sometimes if needed. This one's borderline.

Seriously, what do y' want to know about this, if anything?  I'll try to answer.

I mean, we needed you here last week!

 

Good to see you are still kicking, just some good natured ribbing at this point.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9499

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

The two people on 130 that were hurt...both had left their vehicles, one jumped over the barrier to avoid being hit by another car, the second was hit by a car and went over the barrier. Life threatening injuries. 

 

I can’t decide what’s worse.

Making a decision to jump off an overpass to avoid being hit by a vehicle….or having that choice made for me.

but man, idk the right thing to do in these situations, but you see it pretty often…people getting killed on icy roads after they leave their vehicle 

 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
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38 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Will HEB be open tomorrow?

Yes. I went there today after the post-apocalyptic rush of idiots buying 10 days' worth of shit yesterday. Roads were fine all morning, as I expected (because I study WEATHER!).

34 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

How long have you been a degenerate ginger and why did you pick the name MissingInAction?

Not a fair/accurate accusation. I'm only a ginger in my pubic area, where I bleached it.

29 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

I mean, we needed you here last week!

 

Good to see you are still kicking, just some good natured ribbing at this point.

Thanks.  Last week?  What happened last week? This wasn't really on anyone's radar until maybe Friday or so. Hell, the forecasts called for highs in the high 40's as recently as Sunday. I didn't pay much attention to it until then, and when I saw that the temps were trending down, I started looking. A semi-polar blast but not a direct vortex hit here. But anyone who follows this stuff knows, the models *always* underestimate the density and coldness of these air masses. They need to get those working better. But this cold isn't much below freezing so it's taken much more time to overcome the warmth of the ground. Hell, the icing is taking even longer than I thought, which is why I was all out and over this morning doing errands. Yeah bridges and stuff froze over here/there, but I wasn't going far and on any long overpasses. Worked out great. 

Today it'll still be borderline - temps will hit either side of freezing in the area, so icing will be sporadic.  Then this little disturbance is gone by dinner - no more precip.  But overnight and into tomorrow might be bad, the main system is finally moving over us - more widespread/heavier precip. If people lose power, it'll be starting Wed. morning into Thurs. The icing amounts could be damaging. The hopefully good news is that if the wind stays down stuff won't break. If not, it'll be worse. 
Anyway, this has turned into a true winter event, but not atypical at all in this area, and only (now) about 2 days. 

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UnivTex34

UnivTex34 1763

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, phdhorn said:

Yes. I went there today after the post-apocalyptic rush of idiots buying 10 days' worth of shit yesterday. Roads were fine all morning, as I expected (because I study WEATHER!).

Not a fair/accurate accusation. I'm only a ginger in my pubic area, where I bleached it.

Thanks.  Last week?  What happened last week? This wasn't really on anyone's radar until maybe Friday or so. Hell, the forecasts called for highs in the high 40's as recently as Sunday. I didn't pay much attention to it until then, and when I saw that the temps were trending down, I started looking. A semi-polar blast but not a direct vortex hit here. But anyone who follows this stuff knows, the models *always* underestimate the density and coldness of these air masses. They need to get those working better. But this cold isn't much below freezing so it's taken much more time to overcome the warmth of the ground. Hell, the icing is taking even longer than I thought, which is why I was all out and over this morning doing errands. Yeah bridges and stuff froze over here/there, but I wasn't going far and on any long overpasses. Worked out great. 

Today it'll still be borderline - temps will hit either side of freezing in the area, so icing will be sporadic.  Then this little disturbance is gone by dinner - no more precip.  But overnight and into tomorrow might be bad, the main system is finally moving over us - more widespread/heavier precip. If people lose power, it'll be starting Wed. morning into Thurs. The icing amounts could be damaging. The hopefully good news is that if the wind stays down stuff won't break. If not, it'll be worse. 
Anyway, this has turned into a true winter event, but not atypical at all in this area, and only (now) about 2 days. 

I understand you not going back to read that drivel, but the models were showing gloom and doom starting Wednesday and Thursday, and we were left to interpret and argue about them on our own! /GretaThornbergHowDareYou

But yeah, things started to confirm model wise Sunday afternoon. Appreciate the rundown.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
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8 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

I understand you not going back to read that drivel, but the models were showing gloom and doom starting Wednesday and Thursday, and we were left to interpret and argue about them on our own! /GretaThornbergHowDareYou

But yeah, things started to confirm model wise Sunday afternoon. Appreciate the rundown.

Oh, ok.

Yeah, whenever I see models like that, I don't pay much attention until about 48 hours out. They're accurate to about 50% outside of that. I start paying attention within about 2-3 days. The local honks were still saying high 40's (started about high 50's a week earlier) for this week. No one was calling for ice.  Admittedly I might have seen it if I had been looking at the Web models, I might have known. But really, it didn't make much difference in planning - 1-2 days is nothing as far as supplies, and the wife and I decided NOT to have our generator ready- this is a 48 hour max event, with cold but not frigid temps, and much less wind. This is an overrunning situation, not an arctic front blast that drives 15 degree winds up every crack in our house. If we'll lose power, we can manage. And since these 1-2 day freezups are common around here, I didn't think it was any big deal. I think people have gotten so jaded about the one in 1,000 year event that happened 2 years ago, they get nervous.

Anyway, I'll try to update here if something's worth it. Meantime, 1) roads will be mostly ok if not iffy on elevations the rest of today, 2) rain stops so we'll get a break for much of the rest of the day and evening, 3) more rain moves in tomorrow the main system, just now moving out of SoCal. Temps will be critical to the degree of icing. I have a faint hope that a little slightly warmer air will be swept in with the system movement and mitigate the ice problems. We'll be right on the border of bad vs. not-bad ice, so there's no way know with something this close. Hopefully it'll be relegated to about a 12-15 hour event. Sporadic power outages mostly due to ice breaking stuff, not a grid problem.  We'll see.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

Yup, 2021 PTSD is real.

Understandable, but way too paranoid.
We are not going to have an event like that in my, my kids', or my grandkids' lifetime. People forget just how utterly unworldly the combo of events were, it's probably more likely I'll win the lottery than that happening.  Maybe somethng close (3-4 days) but nope, no 10 day not-yet-hitting-25 degrees after FIVE winter storms in FIVE days.  

I'm certain of it.  Period.

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UnivTex34

UnivTex34 1763

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Understandable, but way too paranoid.
We are not going to have an event like that in my, my kids', or my grandkids' lifetime. People forget just how utterly unworldly the combo of events were, it's probably more likely I'll win the lottery than that happening.  Maybe somethng close (3-4 days) but nope, no 10 day not-yet-hitting-25 degrees after FIVE winter storms in FIVE days.  

I'm certain of it.  Period.

I wanna believe you, but probably gonna take another winter or two.

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texasdago

texasdago 7575

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

South Austin, they are just wet. 

Agreed in SW Austin... I want to make a run to somewhere by William Cannon/Mopac feeder and can theoretically do so without ever getting on Mopac. 

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Escarpment HEB was nearly fully stocked at noon

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Guest

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Posted

I wanna know why you decided to take a leave of absence. Is it this place or is it stuff in the real world? 

You're one of the best posters here and I feel like this place is slowly dying with fewer and fewer posters. 

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Understandable, but way too paranoid.
We are not going to have an event like that in my, my kids', or my grandkids' lifetime. People forget just how utterly unworldly the combo of events were, it's probably more likely I'll win the lottery than that happening.  Maybe somethng close (3-4 days) but nope, no 10 day not-yet-hitting-25 degrees after FIVE winter storms in FIVE days.  

I'm certain of it.  Period.

You arrogant ass, you’ve killed us. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105157

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Understandable, but way too paranoid.
We are not going to have an event like that in my, my kids', or my grandkids' lifetime. People forget just how utterly unworldly the combo of events were, it's probably more likely I'll win the lottery than that happening.  Maybe somethng close (3-4 days) but nope, no 10 day not-yet-hitting-25 degrees after FIVE winter storms in FIVE days.  

I'm certain of it.  Period.

 

6 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

You arrogant ass, you’ve killed us. 

Beat me to it.

That's why PhD is dialing back his presence -- he knows we'll come for him when Austin turns into Ice Station Zebra next winter and we all have to gut our Tauntauns.  We see what you're doing here.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

I wanna believe you, but probably gonna take another winter or two.

No, as I said it's understandable. Especially families with kids and stuff, that was a terrible experience, I lived it myself, 4 days without power and a 45° house.

But I guess I have enough chutzpah (arrogance) about to say what happened in '21 was otherworldly, and almost impossible over the next batch of years at least. It's always inconvenient with an icing situation again especially with kids, but keep in mind that even if this freeze lasted through Friday (it's going to be sunny, warm, in the mid to high 60s), that's only one-half of the duration of the '21 event.

I realize that event has left the bad scar on people's psyches, but at some point they'll realize that's just not going to happen again.

21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Beat me to it.

That's why PhD is dialing back his presence -- he knows we'll come for him when Austin turns into Ice Station Zebra next winter and we all have to gut our Tauntauns.  We see what you're doing here.

To my points and the one just before this, if I am wrong, you sonofabitches won't get here anyway. I live on a 1,100 ft. bluff west of austin, you'll never make it up here and you'll die trying in the cold. And I'll shoot ice pellets through my rifle. I'm safe.

I do have one update:

It looks like tomorrow will be a race against tiime and temp. The rain is definitely going to pick up in the early morning and things could get bad up until when (and IF) the temperature > freezing, which is now forecast in a good part of the region, we'll see. Without the sun, the temperature really needs to get above freezing for melting to occur; with it, it can be as cold as 26° and still melt. But we'll need the temperature up without the sun.

My personal planning is not going anywhere at least through noon or 1 p.m. tomorrow, then hopefully driving on nothing but wet streets meant to late afternoonas the ice melts. 50/50 right now but I'm optimistic.

Late Wednesday into thursday, I'll look at it.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45978

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

To my points and the one just before this, if I am wrong, you sonofabitches won't get here anyway. I live on a 1,100 ft. bluff west of austin, you'll never make it up here and you'll die trying in the cold. 

Ha HA!  We have a spiral staircase we can bring!

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