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Posted (edited)

Made it to my office at First and Congress just taking Lamar from Brentwood.  The drive was a breeze; roads were just wet with no ice.  Driving down Lamar it looked like power was out around the Central Market area and didn't see much on until I got south of MLK.  For now, I'm just enjoying a heated office and coffee.

Edited by South Austin
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Posted
  On 2/1/2023 at 4:42 PM, phdhorn said:

Update: We have one more batch of precip entering the ATX area now. This is going to last to around after lunch, then I think we'll be dry for another stretch. A bigger round of rain is coming in tonight but temps will rise. It's going to be a race <sigh>.

Edit: Trying to provide some hope:

image.png.793eed3d91e2c0e6069bc495c398d3ad.png

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This is the phd we know and love. 

 

Posted
  On 2/1/2023 at 4:45 PM, JesusSweatDuck said:

Same, but 10 years.  The summer sun is going to be brutal on the grass.  First world problems and all that

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Yeah it could be worse for sure, like our neighbors across the street who just got a leak in their roof from a falling limb. 

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Posted

If you do end up heading out today @woohorn, wouldn't hurt to add a bag of kitty litter and small dig out shovel to the trunk as a just in case. We went off road traveling through Kansas in an ice storm once and those two items got us back on the road in a jiffy. With all the precipitation, the ground can put your tires in a rut pretty fast and like Mona Lisa Vito said, " The ’64 Skylark had a regular differential, which, anyone who’s been stuck in the mud in Alabama knows, you step on the gas, one tire spins, the other tire does nothing."

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Posted

Quick question (I know, no math/physics here)..

If we get the rain while temps are above freezing, does that help the trees relieve some of the ice weight?  Or does this add more weight to those trees as the rain "sticks" on the ice?

 

 

Posted
  On 2/1/2023 at 5:05 PM, dittohead said:

Quick question (I know, no math/physics here)..

If we get the rain while temps are above freezing, does that help the trees relieve some of the ice weight?  Or does this add more weight to those trees as the rain "sticks" on the ice?

 

 

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I was wondering that too, if it gets above freezing going out and spraying the shit out of them with warm water from the hose to get some of the weight off...  

Posted
  On 2/1/2023 at 5:05 PM, dittohead said:

Quick question (I know, no math/physics here)..

If we get the rain while temps are above freezing, does that help the trees relieve some of the ice weight?  Or does this add more weight to those trees as the rain "sticks" on the ice?

 

 

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Not an easy answer, and temps are part of it, so the answer is...

image.png.1d0e079824ecb44c38dbfb773737b800.png

If the temps are at or near freezing, and the rain is heavy, and the air aloft is warm (like our situation today), it can actually bring warm air down with it and melt the ice, because both the air and rain > 32°. If you've ever poured faucet water into a cup of ice and it melts, you get the idea.

However, if temps are lower and/or rain is not as heavy, it can be worse and add.

If it's pouring out, it doesn't necessarily mean more ice accumulation... only so much water can layer up in a given instant, the rest will run off to the ground. 

But I don't think heavy rain is a good thing right now. And it won't be - until in many areas tomorrow morning, when it's been above freezing for several hours. In that case, it'll help scrub the trees.

Seems like an eternity to get to about 12 hours from now, though...

 

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Posted
  On 2/1/2023 at 5:00 PM, Mrs Whiggins said:

If you do end up heading out today @woohorn, wouldn't hurt to add a bag of kitty litter and small dig out shovel to the trunk as a just in case. We went off road traveling through Kansas in an ice storm once and those two items got us back on the road in a jiffy. With all the precipitation, the ground can put your tires in a rut pretty fast and like Mona Lisa Vito said, " The ’64 Skylark had a regular differential, which, anyone who’s been stuck in the mud in Alabama knows, you step on the gas, one tire spins, the other tire does nothing."

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Yep, also some blankets, gloves and other things to keep warm if shit really goes sideways and you're stuck on the side of the road waiting

Posted (edited)
  On 2/1/2023 at 5:11 PM, phdhorn said:

Not an easy answer, and temps are part of it, so the answer is...

image.png.1d0e079824ecb44c38dbfb773737b800.png

If the temps are at or near freezing, and the rain is heavy, and the air aloft is warm (like our situation today), it can actually bring warm air down with it and melt the ice, because both the air and rain > 32°. If you've ever poured faucet water into a cup of ice and it melts, you get the idea.

However, if temps are lower and/or rain is not as heavy, it can be worse and add.

If it's pouring out, it doesn't necessarily mean more ice accumulation... only so much water can layer up in a given instant, the rest will run off to the ground. 

But I don't think heavy rain is a good thing right now. And it won't be - until in many areas tomorrow morning, when it's been above freezing for several hours. In that case, it'll help scrub the trees.

Seems like an eternity to get to about 12 hours from now, though...

 

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It will be a dynamic situation even with warmer air / water. When it first begins raining, the initial rain will add force to the tree limbs before the warmer water has had time to melt any of the accumulated ice. That will make matters worse until enough of the ice melts that the remaining ice + rain is less heavy than the initial ice accumulation. How long that takes depends on the amount of rain and the temperature. 

Edited by BrickHorn
Posted (edited)
  On 2/1/2023 at 5:05 PM, dittohead said:

Quick question (I know, no math/physics here)..

If we get the rain while temps are above freezing, does that help the trees relieve some of the ice weight?  Or does this add more weight to those trees as the rain "sticks" on the ice?

 

 

Expand  

Depends on what temp the ice and rain are. Does the ice freeze the rain that lands on it, or does the rain thaw the ice it lands on?  Need more data.  Localized temps will equilibrate, will that equilibrium temp be above or below freezing?  Or if 32, could be either. But ice at 32 with an air temp above freezing should thaw quickly. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
Posted
  On 2/1/2023 at 5:19 PM, BrickHorn said:

It will be a dynamic situation even with warmer air / water. When it first begins raining, the initial rain will add force to the tree limbs before the warmer water has had time to melt any of the accumulated ice. That will make matters worse until enough of the ice melts that the remaining ice + rain is less heavy than the initial ice accumulation. How long that takes depends on the amount of rain and temperature. 

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Pretty good explanation here. It could vary almost house to house, too. Not an easy call. I prefer no more rain period, or at least temps get warm enough to start melting the ice and making it soft. Then the rain could wash it right off.

Posted

I have three large oaks in my yard in 78731. I’ve lost a few branches but nothing major. There are a bunch that are sagging like a mother fucker though. We made it through 2021 without losing anything, so not sure why this one already seems worse.

I can definitely hear the melting ice coming down when I go out but not enough yet. Need a few more degrees.

Posted

Thanks everyone.

Super large 0ak tree in Bee Cave (Falconhead) that survived 2021 and everything else before that.  It is sagging to say the least.. The golf course looks like a war zone out there with the trees snapping.

 

Posted
  On 2/1/2023 at 5:24 PM, hookemATL said:

I love their leaves in fall and the flowers in spring.  However they are weak and fall down all the fucking time.  Removed one in the backyard after half of it calved off for no reason.

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That's how all Bradfords die.  Usually about 15 - 20 yrs after being planted they will split in half.  People love them because they grow quickly and give good shade, but they don't last

  On 2/1/2023 at 5:29 PM, DaysOff said:

It's getting better. Maybe Abbott should go for a jog.

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Anthony Anderson Abc GIF by HULU

Posted (edited)

So it’s misting/sleeting in our neighborhood.   Not sure if this is good or not, as the temp is around 30, but whatever is falling is light enough, it feels like it could cling to icy branches and lines.

Outage listings have dropped off a bit - some Are still being added, but not as fast as before.   

Edited by atomheartbevo
Posted

I live near the state health services department (whatever it's called) off North Loop, and never was a part of the rolling outages in Feb. 2021, so I'm hoping I'm in one of the grids that gets some priority in restoring power.  I don't even have gas for cooking or showering. 

Posted
  On 2/1/2023 at 5:18 PM, JesusSweatDuck said:

Yep, also some blankets, gloves and other things to keep warm if shit really goes sideways and you're stuck on the side of the road waiting

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Also something to read, perhaps a few of the old school classics (hustler, swank, black tail). And maybe an extra sock or two.

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Posted
  On 2/1/2023 at 5:29 PM, dittohead said:

Thanks everyone.

Super large 0ak tree in Bee Cave (Falconhead) that survived 2021 and everything else before that.  It is sagging to say the least.. The golf course looks like a war zone out there with the trees snapping.

 

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I shot an 84 there on Sunday so this hits close to home.

Posted

Holy fucking shit, tell me that you have not lived very long in Austin and/or have never dug in your yard without telling me you have not lived very long in Austin and/or have never dug in your yard.

Do people really believe we could just bury all of our power lines?

 

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