2024 Senate Elections

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

It's all done but the crying in Georgia, so let's get this started.

It appears to be a rough map for the Democrats with Tester (MT), Brown (OH), and Manchin (WV) all running for reelection in very red states.  But here's the thing: those are really good candidates with a history of success in those states.  All three of them won pretty comfortably in 2018.  And while that was a wave election, I'm also a bit skeptical about how much of a blue wave there possibly could have been in West fucking Virginia.

I think those guys remain the favorites to be reelected until I see otherwise.

As always, the real interesting thing is when there's a retirement.

Mike Braun (IN) is the only incumbent to be known to be retiring.  But even with that retirement, I don't see that as a realistic pick-up opportunity.

Diane Feinstein (CA) may be retiring.  If she's not, she's going to have an interesting election.  With California's weird jungle-primary system, you could see two Democrats in the general election or, conceivably, two Republicans (particularly if Biden runs for reelection and is largely unopposed, thereby reducing Democratic turnout on primary day).

Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) is going to get primaried out.  I think there's just no real chance she survives a primary challenge by Gallego.  So that's going to be really interesting.  The Arizona Republican bench is a little bit thin these days, and I have confidence that they'll nominate a loon.  So I have to think Gallego is a favorite as of now.

Apart from that, you might see Manchin retire.  I could also see Bernie Sanders (VT) retire, but I don't see that seat going to the Republicans.  

 

And then there's Ted Cruz (TX).  In this cycle, that may be the Democrats' best chance for a pickup.

[Incredulity 11,643]

motion to adjourn for 12-18 months.

[gmr548 16,575]

No realistic pickups for Democrats, downside is losing as many as 10 seats (MT, NV, AZ, NM, WI, MI, OH, PA, WV, and VA).

Obviously some of those are true nightmare scenarios that are unlikely to come to pass, and depending on the outcome of this Georgia runoff and the 2024 election they might be able to absorb a loss of one seat, but it’s very likely the GOP will win a majority. The main question is if the losses can be limited to one or two seats, giving you at least a theoretical shot at taking it back in 2026.

[David Dennison 18,837]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

No realistic pickups for Democrats, downside is losing as many as 10 seats (MT, NV, AZ, NM, WI, MI, OH, PA, WV, and VA).

Obviously some of those are true nightmare scenarios that are unlikely to come to pass, and depending on the outcome of this Georgia runoff and the 2024 election they might be able to absorb a loss of one seat, but it’s very likely the GOP will win a majority. The main question is if the losses can be limited to one or two seats, giving you at least a theoretical shot at taking it back in 2026.

Never underestimate the power of incumbency. 

[chainsaw 9,850]

Manchin is popular. Would need a strong republican ticket and a red wave to lose. Same goes for Brown, oddly enough. It will be interesting to see if Ohio's red shift continues in 24.

I don't know enough about Tester's constituency but if he's as popular then I think the same idea would apply to him.

[Neonmoon 38,129]

There's also a non-zero chance one or more of the current Republican Senators is arrested for child pornography. 

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

28 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

motion to adjourn for 12-18 months.

Motion fails for lack of a second.

[chainsaw 9,850]

Just now, Neonmoon said:

There's also a non-zero chance one or more of the current Republican Senators is arrested for child pornography. 

that's not disqualifying to republican voters

[Incredulity 11,643]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

Motion fails for lack of a second.

obligatory

[Neonmoon 38,129]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

that's not disqualifying to republican voters

[Horn Dogg 3,868]

In on page 1!

[Valmy77 13,225]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

And then there's Ted Cruz (TX).  In this cycle, that may be the Democrats' best chance for a pickup.

Well we have the same old problem.

We have prominent Democrats who are popular in Austin. We have popular Democrats who are popular in Houston. We have popular Democrats who are popular in Dallas. Same for San Antonio and El Paso. And down in the RGV I suppose.

But none have much reach outside of their little sphere. Beto is done politically unless he finds something he can win. So who runs against Cruz? I get Cruz is a shitty candidate but we need to get basically everybody who doesn't like Ted Cruz in Texas to agree that a Democrat is better to have in the Senate than him. That would have to be one hell of a Democrat.

I personally think a populist with radical ideas is better than some moderate who tries to be show how much he or she loves conservative ideas. But maybe I am wrong about that. We just haven't had much success with the moderate conservative Democrat in the past.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Valmy77

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

56 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Never underestimate the power of incumbency. 

It's not just incumbency.  Tester and Brown were first elected in 2006; Manchin in 2010.  All three have been elected three times.  So voters are comfortable voting for them.  They know what they're getting, and apparently they've liked what they've been getting.

And beyond that, there is something of a small-state multiplier in the incumbency advantage.  Fivethirtyeight and others have done some interesting research on this, but it is pretty clear that incumbents in small states are voted out at a much lower rate than in large states.  Presumably, it has something to do with the higher percentage of people in a small state having had personal contact and/or getting constituent services from the incumbent than you see in a larger state.  So that works to the significant advantage of Manchin and Tester.

Oh, and I forgot to note that Jacky Rosen (NV) is up for reelection.  As I've said before, Nevada is Republican Florida.  They always think the polls look great, but then election day comes and the Democrats always win.  I don't expect this to be different.  But I'm sure the Republicans will keep fucking that chicken.

[chainsaw 9,850]

2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Well we have the same old problem.

We have prominent Democrats who are popular in Austin. We have popular Democrats who are popular in Houston. We have popular Democrats who are popular in Dallas. Same for San Antonio and El Paso. And down in the RGV I suppose.

But none have much reach outside of their little sphere. Beto is done politically unless he finds something he can win. So who runs against Cruz? I get Cruz is a shitty candidate but we need to get basically everybody who doesn't like Ted Cruz in Texas to agree that a Democrat is better to have in the Senate than him. That would have to be one hell of a Democrat.

I said it in another thread so I'll just link it here

Quote

Whoever it is has to have these four qualities:

1. Gen Z (not Gen X, sorry Beto; maybe Millennial although I think that window is closing)
2. Working Class (not born rich, not big tech-aligned, not a major law firm person, not a small business success story; someone who punches a clock. Amazon warehouser?)
3. Genuinely outdoorsy (no photo ops, no ridiculous gun collections, places in or wins shooting contests, has lifelong relationships with their local hunting and fishing scenes)
4. Fighter (doesn't avoid conflict, clearly picks sides, not so concerned with popularity that it changes his views)

In terms of their politics and positions on the issues, they would need to be Fiscally Leftist (think Fetterman, who was more vocal than Beto about Medicare For All, Student Debt relief, and other no-brainer policies that have overwhelming support), Socially Progressive (think Westlake Whole Foods crowd, tolerant of and entirely comfortable with LGBT+ but not over-the-top or showy about diversity and social justice), and Policy-Wise Moderate (think Admiral McRaven, doesn't rock the boat on the fundamentals such as policing, education, transportation).

The campaign strategy would be a mix of Beto (pounding the pavement in all 254 counties, livestreaming it, shaking hands with real people), Fetterman (the world's best shitposters), and AOC (great at discussing policy via social media to Gen Z and Millennials). Move away from using Hollywood celebrities. Move away from pandering to Latinos. Move far the fuck away from nagging people on the mailing/texting list. People have learned to tune that all out.

If turn-out had not declined in 2022 from 2018's levels, I think it would have been a lot more competitive for Beto and I think he would have held WilCo, Tarrant, Nueces, and some of these other purple counties. Going forward we need long-lasting, organic GOTV strategies. I don't know what the answer to that is. Sometimes it just helps turnout when you have a psychopath in the white house fucking everything up. If you don't have that, well, you need to find newer ways to fire up the base.

 

The idea is to get turnout as high as possible in these counties:

1. Harris
2. Dallas
3. Travis
4. Bexar
5. El Paso
6. Valley

While also flipping these counties:

1. Fort Bend
2. Tarrant
3. Williamson
4. Nueces
5. Hudspeth/Brewster
6. Upriver Rural Border (like Zapata)

The Gen X wine moms and retired boomers who fell in love with Beto would fall in love with a new rising star. The key is to bring out skeptical Millennials and nihilistic Gen Z voters who will skew heavily against Cruz.

Nobody had heard of Beto until July 2018 anyway. If the Dems are smart, we haven't heard of our 2024 candidate yet and they won't trot out some proven loser. Greg Casar is the absolute oldest person they should be considering. Ideally the candidate is 27 right now.

[Js1 85,258]

Both Montana House reps are in discussions to run against Tester.

Dude is a bit of an institution - he was not even the DSCC's choice in 2006 but kicked ass to the tune of a 25 point win in the primary.   

He won in a blue wave year (2006 by a point), in a presidential year (2012, by 4 points while Obama was losing the state by 14), and then in 2018 (won by 3.5 in a year that saw many red state Dems lose their seats despite a blue wave). 

Joe Manchin is another institution - won in a red wave year (2010 by 10 points), a presidential year (2012 by 24 points despite Obama losing the state by 27 points) and 2018 (3.5 points, in a year that saw many red state Dems lose)

And lastly, Sherrod Brown - 2006 blue wave (13 point win), 2012 (6 points, doubling Obama's margin), 2018 (7 points).

All 3 of these candidates have won in very different environments - blue waves, red waves, presidential years that their party lost the state.  They have a lot of crossover support. 

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

6 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Well we have the same old problem.

We have prominent Democrats who are popular in Austin. We have popular Democrats who are popular in Houston. We have popular Democrats who are popular in Dallas. Same for San Antonio and El Paso. And down in the RGV I suppose.

But none have much reach outside of their little sphere. Beto is done politically unless he finds something he can win. So who runs against Cruz? I get Cruz is a shitty candidate but we need to get basically everybody who doesn't like Ted Cruz in Texas to agree that a Democrat is better to have in the Senate than him. That would have to be one hell of a Democrat.

I personally think a populist with radical ideas is better than some moderate who tries to be show how much he or she loves conservative ideas. But maybe I am wrong about that. We just haven't had much success with the moderate conservative Democrat in the past.

Of the current officeholders, I'd say Colin Allred or Lina Hidalgo.  Maybe Clay Jenkins.  

Fuck--I'd say let Philip Kingston do it just for the lulz.  He'd lose, but he'd throw a lot of bombs and it'd honestly be really, really funny.

But honestly, I think you've got to go outside the bucket of current officeholders.  I know it's intensely stupid, but the best bet may be to go with someone like McConaughey or Cubes.

[Pescado_Rojo 19,412]

9 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Well we have the same old problem.

We have prominent Democrats who are popular in Austin. We have popular Democrats who are popular in Houston. We have popular Democrats who are popular in Dallas. Same for San Antonio and El Paso. And down in the RGV I suppose.

But none have much reach outside of their little sphere. Beto is done politically unless he finds something he can win. So who runs against Cruz? I get Cruz is a shitty candidate but we need to get basically everybody who doesn't like Ted Cruz in Texas to agree that a Democrat is better to have in the Senate than him. That would have to be one hell of a Democrat.

I personally think a populist with radical ideas is better than some moderate who tries to be show how much he or she loves conservative ideas. But maybe I am wrong about that. We just haven't had much success with the moderate conservative Democrat in the past.

This. Someone new is going to have to appear on the scene in Texas to have a shot and I can't think of who that would be. Bill McRaven? 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,506]

Important to not let the GA seat (Warnock) slip from the Dems fingers next month. While not needed in '23 and '24, it could be deciding the majority in the '24 election.

[Satchel 6,925]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Important to not let the GA seat (Warnock) slip from the Dems fingers next month. While not needed in '23 and '24, it could be deciding the majority in the '24 election.

That seat is needed because we’ll have it for six years and we’ll need every seat because the senatorial map does not favor Denocrats in 2024.

[Valmy77 13,225]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Important to not let the GA seat (Warnock) slip from the Dems fingers next month. While not needed in '23 and '24, it could be deciding the majority in the '24 election.

Warnock is absolutely essential next year. 51 is a huge difference from 50. It means we only need 49 of the Democrats+Independents to vote for something. It means we get to control all the committees. It is huge.

And obviously vital for beyond 2024.

Warnock losing would be a very bad thing. We need him badly.

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

Run Beto again vs Cruz 

[Js1 85,258]

16 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Warnock is absolutely essential next year. 51 is a huge difference from 50. It means we only need 49 of the Democrats+Independents to vote for something. It means we get to control all the committees. It is huge.

And obviously vital for beyond 2024.

Warnock losing would be a very bad thing. We need him badly.

No one in the Democratic Party is taking that race for granted.  First Gen Z Congressman Maxwell Frost is being deployed to ATL to get the youths out.  Would expect some visits by the big names - Obama, Harris, maybe Biden himself. 

51 is essential with Manchin up in 2024, to let him have some independence.  Full control of committees.  Stack judicial nominations for 2 years. 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Beto brought out crowds, but not votes. DFW and Houston turnout was dismal. Some of that is Biden (who was largely neutral in most states aside from Texas and Florida where he was an anchor for Dems).

Dems in Texas need a candidate to get out the vote to have a chance at replacing the embarrassingly awful Ted Cruz in 2024. If Biden is at the top of the 2014 ticket, no need to waste Dem money on Texas. 

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

There is no democrat who can win a senate race in Texas in 2024.  Texas Dems would be better doing something similar what Utahns did with McMullin this year: not running someone from the party at all and instead backing a moderate Republican in the primary or an independent who vows not to caucus with either party.  McConaughey could be a viable example of the latter.

[Js1 85,258]

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

There is no democrat who can win a senate race in Texas in 2024.  Texas Dems would be better doing something similar what Utahns did with McMullin this year: not running someone from the party at all and instead backing a moderate Republican in the primary or an independent who vows not to caucus with either party.  McConaughey could be a viable example of the latter.

This.

2026 is the better chance - people are basically meh on Cornyn and no Dem president dragging down the Dem.  It also might be an open race - 74 is young by Senate standards, but could see Cornyn passing on another run. 

[Chuckie Finster 22,692]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

This. Someone new is going to have to appear on the scene in Texas to have a shot and I can't think of who that would be. Bill McRaven? 

McRaven and Nate Boyer need to be the Texas Democratic Party's white whales.

No idea if either are attainable, but that's the type of candidate they will need to flip the state - be it in 2024, 2026, or beyond.

[chainsaw 9,850]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

McRaven and Nate Boyer need to be the Texas Democratic Party's white whales.

No idea if either are attainable, but that's the type of candidate they will need to flip the state - be it in 2024, 2026, or beyond.

way too old.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,389]

6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

way too old.

 Boyer is 41

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

[chainsaw 9,850]

9 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 Boyer is 41

Yes. Too old. Run young candidates or suffer the consequences.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Winning West Virginia and Montana in 2024 would be amazing for another reason. WV and Montana are part of the small group of states that require if a senator dies in office, the governor must appoint someone from the dying senators party to fill the void. I think the only senate seats that we could lose to a death and a Republican governor in place would be Ohio, Georgia, and New Hampshire.

[Pescado_Rojo 19,412]

56 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Yes. Too old. Run young candidates or suffer the consequences.

For a senate seat? Who is this unicorn young person that could beat Ted Cruz? 

 

[chainsaw 9,850]

1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

For a senate seat? Who is this unicorn young person that could beat Ted Cruz? 

 

They're an unknown right now. But they'll have 100k+ followers on TikTok, they will be highly authentic and charismatic, they will speak the language of the working class (ala Fetterman), and they won't be a limpdick centrist.

[StassneyHorn 6,573]

I’m fully onboard the Matthew McConaughey (R) for Senator train if he was seriously thinking about public service. The only way shitty R’s in Texas will get knocked out is via primary. Ours is usually the earliest in the nation, in March, with maybe 10% participation and zero press coverage. Don’t fight a battle that requires 50-60% participation. 

Republicans LOVE voting for celebrities despite their vocal cries of opposition, there are too many examples proving this. The state also has open primaries, that works against Cruz as well. Turning that race into a Ted Cruz vs MM popularity contest is easy money. Nobody here has ever seen a televised Texas Republican primary for Senate debate. There will be no clamoring for policy details. MM can withstand Hollywood attacks by playing his Oscar speech praising God and yadda yadda yadda over whatever bullshit they’ll try to make stick about being a Hollywood elite.
 

Edited November 14, 2022 by StassneyHorn

[chainsaw 9,850]

5 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

I’m fully onboard the Matthew McConaughey (R) for Senator train if he was seriously thinking about public service. The only way shitty R’s in Texas will get knocked out is via primary. Ours is usually the earliest in the nation, in March, with maybe 10% participation and zero press coverage. Don’t fight a battle that requires 50-60% participation. 

Republicans LOVE voting for celebrities despite their vocal cries of opposition, there are too many examples proving this. The state also has open primaries, that works against Cruz as well. Turning that race into a Ted Cruz vs MM popularity contest is easy money. MM can withstand Hollywood attacks by playing his Oscar speech praising God and yadda yadda yadda over whatever bullshit they’ll try to make stick about being a Hollywood elite.
 

R is still R. It would kill us downballot too. Fuck that.

[StassneyHorn 6,573]

I actually think it would depress the fuck out of turnout for Conservative men in the general.

[Js1 85,258]

 

[chainsaw 9,850]

2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

I actually think it would depress the fuck out of turnout for Conservative men in the general.

i don't see that happening in a general election unfortunately

[StassneyHorn 6,573]

I don't see Dems getting killed downballot when its A list celebrity vs Democrat for a statewide race 

[YGIFS 19,449]

that's the thing about Class One in 2024, it doesn't have much to do with the Texas ballot for statewide or Congressional (same 3-5 races are the only competitive ones outta 38 next time around in U.S. House from TX).  The handful of statewide judicial races are all going R no matter what.  And then when you get down to local races for City, County, and Judgeships, basically everything tilts blue in the cities/suburbs and red in exurbs/rural.  Other than Craddick who will easily win RRC re-election, there's nothing to throw all the Democrat Party might into than Senate and POTUS turnout.  Don't worry about fucking shit up for downballot Democrats in 2024, the ballot that year is pretty much already settled save for a couple U.S. House races.  

Either find a moderate/likable R to primary Cruz.  Or get that same person to run as in Independent maybe.  But do not let "downballot" effect thinking.  It's not really an issue with Class One this time.  Plus open primary with record turnout in 2022 for people that took one party's ballot in March and then voted mostly other party in the general.  There's not many of us, severral hundreds of thousands, but that's enough to help sway a senate election. Relying solely on "Blue Tide/Get out of the Vote" efforts in 2024 versus Cruz will not work...once again.  Turnout will be good after you can contest suppression efforts plus a big POTUS election likely.  But the state is just not there yet statistically.  You gotta court all the Republicans (former and begrudgingly current) to vote against Ted,  or skip over him at least.  You gotta get 10-20% of non-voters to come out who want nothing to do with the Democrat party apparatus.  And bump up your Beto numbers by every single extra D that turns out just to vote POTUS.  

Plus, and I have no empirical data to prove this but there's a 97% chance people hate Ted Cruz even more in two years than they do now.  And even most Republicans fucking hate him.  There's a primary opportunity in there somewhere especially Ted's eye will be off the ball, and mouth will be on Trump's balls angling for a SCOTUS or Cabinet position.  Abbott will be as well.  Lot of these guys are reaching the terminus of their political careers and have to figure out what's next.  But don't worry about downballot in Texas until 2026 (Cornyn, Patrick, et. al.)

Edited November 15, 2022 by YGIFS

[WBT 20,559]

4 hours ago, chainsaw said:

They're an unknown right now. But they'll have 100k+ followers on TikTok, they will be highly authentic and charismatic, they will speak the language of the working class (ala Fetterman), and they won't be a limpdick centrist.

Fetterman is 51 years old.  And picked up his Masters from Harvard at night classes while working his blue collar job?

[chainsaw 9,850]

9 hours ago, WBT said:

Fetterman is 51 years old.  And picked up his Masters from Harvard at night classes while working his blue collar job?

He also is in a state where Dems can win and have recently won statewide races. He was also holding statewide office. The reason why he blew Oz out isn't because of his age (which indirectly hurt him due to the stroke) but because he's a "Pennsylvania guy" and his "help the working-class for god's sake" policy positions have overwhelming support.

[A-Tex Devil 2,446]

12 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

I’d say that Majewski has no chance making it out of primary but MAGA + dumb Rs and one never knows.  Perfect candidate for Dem “dark” money.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,506]

11 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

I’d say that Majewski has no chance making it out of primary but MAGA + dumb Rs and one never knows.  Perfect candidate for Dem “dark” money.

The guy who lied about the extent of his military service which led to GOP to stop all support? Sounds like a winner for the gop.

[SydneyCarton 48,051]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The guy who lied about the extent of his military service which led to GOP to stop all support? Sounds like a winner for the gop.

Seriously, this is the knob who was exposed as a liar and couldn't win in what should have been a competitive House race. And now he thinks he's running for senate against a wildly successful Ohio politician. Well ok. Pay this man his Dark Money. 

[Js1 85,258]

11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Seriously, this is the knob who was exposed as a liar and couldn't win in what should have been a competitive House race. And now he thinks he's running for senate against a wildly successful Ohio politician. Well ok. Pay this man his Dark Money. 

Right.  He was ditched by the national party and lost an R+3 district by 13 points.

13! He underperformed that district by 16 points.  

What a loser.  It was literally drawn for him to pick up in 2022. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Js1

[G650 14,229]

14 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

Please dear god.

[G650 14,229]

He needs to make a new rap video for this too.

[Pancho 44,685]

 

[Js1 85,258]

12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

This will be interesting.  He's been WV-02 representative since 2015 (elected in 2014).

Prior to that, he was Chair of the Maryland GOP for 3 years and a member of the Maryland State Senate for over a decade.  Born in DC.  Tried to run for MD-06 in 2014, withdrew and then moved to WV to run.

Against Joe Manchin, born in Farmington, WV, went to WVU, member of the WV House of Delegates for 6 years, WV Senate for 10 years, WV SOS for 4 years, WV Governor for 5 years and the state's Senior Senator since 2010.