2024 Senate Elections

[Mdhorn 5945]

There’s no such thing as a conservative either, but I keep reading the word followed by republican on the board. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19412]

19 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Between having somebody like Will Hurd, George P. Bush, or Matt Dowd in office while---at the same time---kneecapping Ted Cruz for the rest of his cunt existence and NOT ALSO blowing $150mm running a sure-thing 8% loser in the general?  Yeah, let's just bitch and handwring about how there are no true decent Republicans anywhere on Planet Earth outta tens of millions.  Let's do the usual strategy.  Working fucking gangbusters right now.  Sinking ship at low tide gonna totally lift other boats! For sure bro!  

Doesn't even have to be that politically moderate, just slightly less detestible than Ted Cruz.  That's it, that's how goes away.  Otherwise, we use the "Let's run a popular, quality Democrat against cruz"  It'll fail in 2024 and in 2030.  SPECTACULARLY! 

George P Bush lost to Ken Fucking Paxton by 36% in the AG Primary, but you think he can beat Ted Cruz? 

Matt Dowd ran for Lt Governor as a Democrat and pulled 13% in a UT poll before dropping out, and you think HE can beat Ted Cruz? 

I actually like Will Hurd, but the campaign adds write themselves. Beto's Buddy, RINO, Quitter, said he didn't support President Trump, and well ahem...you know. I'll tell you what...If Will Hurd runs, I'll probably throw some money his way. How's that? 

[YGIFS 19449]

Paxton nor Patrick poll as negatively within their own party as Cruz.  And you're right, the plan doesn't work without 750k Democratic voters plugging their nose in non-competitive muni areas to vote for the anti-Cruz.  I freely admit we have a longshot plan.  But at least our plan rids the landscape of Ted Cruz.  That's the only one short of Heidi giving him Hep C

[Pescado_Rojo 19412]

4 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Paxton nor Patrick poll as negatively within their own party as Cruz.  And you're right, the plan doesn't work without 750k Democratic voters plugging their nose in non-competitive muni areas to vote for the anti-Cruz.  I freely admit we have a longshot plan.  But at least our plan rids the landscape of Ted Cruz.  That's the only one short of Heidi giving him Hep C

I love and support your hatred of Cruz, but it's a loooooooong shot. 

[Gil Bang 25907]

10 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

George P Bush lost to Ken Fucking Paxton by 36% in the AG Primary, but you think he can beat Ted Cruz? 

Matt Dowd ran for Lt Governor as a Democrat and pulled 13% in a UT poll before dropping out, and you think HE can beat Ted Cruz? 

I actually like Will Hurd, but the campaign adds write themselves. Beto's Buddy, RINO, Quitter, said he didn't support President Trump, and well ahem...you know. I'll tell you what...If Will Hurd runs, I'll probably throw some money his way. How's that? 

Has aggy revoked Hurd's degree yet? 

[YGIFS 19449]

Fair enough.  Not saying it's the strategery...it's just $50mm than the current plan.  

[Satchel 6925]

If you take a look at the UT Politics Polls, Cruz has not come close to garnering 50% approval in years. Texans hate him. Give them somebody not to hate and Cruz could be toast.

[Gengs1 2583]

11 minutes ago, Satchel said:

If you take a look at the UT Politics Polls, Cruz has not come close to garnering 50% approval in years. Texans hate him. Give them somebody not to hate and Cruz could be toast.

they vote for Cruz if Jesus was running against him because Jesus had D next to his name

[Gengs1 2583]

Convince him to run and an independent 

[Satchel 6925]

44 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Convince him to run and an independent 

Why? Because nobody knows where he stands politically?

[YGIFS 19449]

Cruz will not lose a general.  That's the whole fucking point.  I'm not here to deliver you a Senate seat to your party.  I';m here to tell you at least we can get the cyst lanced off and go home the same day.  Damn children, y'all wanna create a utopia but you have fucking taint cancer and I can at least cure that.  

[Brisketexan 105041]

Cruz will not lose a general.  That's the whole fucking point.  I'm not here to deliver you a Senate seat to your party.  I';m here to tell you at least we can get the cyst lanced off and go home the same day.  Damn children, y'all wanna create a utopia but you have fucking taint cancer and I can at least cure that.  

But we can’t get that either. The only person who can win a GQP primary is someone who is MORE of a MAGA-suck up-psychopath than Cruz. You won’t get Will Hurd. You’re much more likely to get a Sid Miller or Louie Gohmert.
We’re Texas. It only gets worse.

[Satchel 6925]

Cruz will Jaysus and border the requisite number of times to ensure he won’t lose in a primary. The best recourse is to hope for the fever to break, for non dominants to improve their voter output and for reasonable white voters to know they have nothing to fear from Texas Democrats.

[YGIFS 19449]

Brisket-Probably, yes.  Didn't say we were gonna save the world, just that we're gonna save $100mm mistake.  

His guy in Texas has stated as much, and you probably know this guy.  I think we talked about him in person.  Their working plan is to make Ted an even bigger asshole to bait somebody into running against him again to siphon off tens of millions of dollars in a futile competition that tilts some other race, somewhere else.  You know this guy, lives in Steiner Ranch with his...ahem...ladyfriend.

Edited February 23, 2023 by YGIFS

[Biff Tannen 45660]

29 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Cruz will not lose a general.  That's the whole fucking point.  I'm not here to deliver you a Senate seat to your party.  I';m here to tell you at least we can get the cyst lanced off and go home the same day.  Damn children, y'all wanna create a utopia but you have fucking taint cancer and I can at least cure that.  

I’m not fully against this plan, but how do you intend to get 700k Dems in texas to vote R as part of it?  That would take a hell of a lot of dimp and someone persuasive enough to make them believe it’s not a scam. Good luck man. 

[YGIFS 19449]

Same way hundreds of thousands of Texans pulled a Republican primary ballot because a handful of races were gonna actually make a difference in 2020 and then broke for Biden in the General.  Just like we make fun of them, not everything is binary.  

Aside from a handful of marquee municipal races, there is nothing for 80% of traditional/consistent Democrat voters to get out for primary season in 2024.  The plan needs just a few hundred thousand of them to be coached up to do the right thing.  It is a once in a lifetime opportunity to Cure Cruz Cancer.  If you look at primary history in Texas seats in the U.S. Senate going back 30+ years.  You don't need much to usurp Ted in a primary (we'll get to a runoff strategy later).  I am literally stealing this idea and maths strategy from his own fucking campaign adviser who got him in over Dewhurst.  

[Celery Man 20929]

Fuck George P Bush right in the P

[VRHorn 718]

11 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I’m not fully against this plan, but how do you intend to get 700k Dems in texas to vote R as part of it?  That would take a hell of a lot of dimp and someone persuasive enough to make them believe it’s not a scam. Good luck man. 

The Dems did some of this (mostly money) in 2022 to push the craziest R in the primary so they would be beaten in the general. I agree that voting is a step further, but it would work if the alternative to Cruz were less crazy, as opposed to what happened in the gov's race.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13506]

The latest from Montana.

As an outside observer, it’s always been strange that a deep red state like Montana always elects a democrat, Jon Tester as their senator. He’s up in ‘24. One aspect that has helped Tester a bit is that there is always a Libertarian in the race who receives a 2-3%. When you add the Libertarian and the GOP candidate together, they either equal or exceed Testers total. But Tester always defeats the GOP without a majority.

To remove the the libertarians from the mix, Montana’s GOP-led legislature is looking to switch to the CA style of a jungle primary where all candidates compete in the same primary, regardless of party, and then only the top 2 go to the general. Result, no libertarian candidate in the general.

the kicker is that this law would start the ‘24 senate race and then immediately sunsets. It’s basically the Defeat Jon Tester law. The law hasn’t passed yet.

[YGIFS 19449]

I suspect that Tester has brought enough federal money home to the districts of some key state legislative members that he can call in enough favor to quash that state bill.  look at the trend of reliance on federal aid/grants/employment.  It has exploded under Tester.  That's not a coincidence.  

[berlinerbaer 670]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The latest from Montana.

As an outside observer, it’s always been strange that a deep red state like Montana always elects a democrat, Jon Tester as their senator. He’s up in ‘24. One aspect that has helped Tester a bit is that there is always a Libertarian in the race who receives a 2-3%. When you add the Libertarian and the GOP candidate together, they either equal or exceed Testers total. But Tester always defeats the GOP without a majority.

To remove the the libertarians from the mix, Montana’s GOP-led legislature is looking to switch to the CA style of a jungle primary where all candidates compete in the same primary, regardless of party, and then only the top 2 go to the general. Result, no libertarian candidate in the general.

the kicker is that this law would start the ‘24 senate race and then immediately sunsets. It’s basically the Defeat Jon Tester law. The law hasn’t passed yet.

538 did an article on the Montana top 2 primary stuff last week and why they don't think it will change much.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jon-tester-montana-2024-election/

Basically, many indies don't like Ds or Rs, according to exit polls, and will sit out the runoff. Even if they all show up for the runoff, the R would need to pull them at a 2 to 1 clip to close a hypothetical 1 percent gap with Tester. 

[Js1 85258]

Q1 approvals for most at-risk Dem seats (including D-caucusing Attention Whore)

• Tester +25
• Rosen +6
• Brown +9
• Casey +13
• Manchin -17 (he is toast)
• Baldwin +1
• Sinema -2 (she actually rebounded, thanks to GOP and indies)

Edited April 19, 2023 by Js1

[TheStoicPaisano 9922]

Big Jim finna money whip the state.

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

On 4/19/2023 at 12:02 PM, Js1 said:

Q1 approvals for most at-risk Dem seats (including D-caucusing Attention Whore)

• Tester +25
• Rosen +6
• Brown +9
• Casey +13
• Manchin -17 (he is toast)
• Baldwin +1
• Sinema -2 (she actually rebounded, thanks to GOP and indies)

I hate to lose a seat, but fuck Manchin.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

 

[SydneyCarton 48051]

On 4/21/2023 at 7:09 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

I hate to lose a seat, but fuck Manchin.

He's a piece of shit, but he is monumentally wealthy, and he'll be replaced by someone way fucking worse than Manchin. 

[kevwun 15757]

They can almost never count on his vote for the really important legislation, so does it matter?  How many times has Manchin been the key vote in passing something the Republicans were fighting tooth and nail over?

Edited May 1, 2023 by kevwun

[Js1 85258]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

They can almost never count on his vote for the really important legislation, so does it matter?  How many times has Manchin been the key vote in passing something the Republicans were fighting tooth and nail over?

Gonna need you to cite all the Dem legislation and judges that Manchin “never” votes for.  Because he’s voted 88% with Biden, in a state that is R+infinity 

[kevwun 15757]

How many of those votes is he the deciding vote on?  It works both ways.  He votes for legislation that will pass regardless of what he does, but if it comes down to his vote, he's going to vote with the Republicans. 

[Js1 85258]

18 minutes ago, kevwun said:

How many of those votes is he the deciding vote on?  It works both ways.  He votes for legislation that will pass regardless of what he does, but if it comes down to his vote, he's going to vote with the Republicans. 

We had a 50/50 senate for the first 2 years of Biden’s presidency. 

[LCHorn 2612]

I feel like we Texans need to get our shit together before we cry too much about Manchin or anyone’s Senators.  It’s not just that we keep electing Republicans to state-wide offices, it’s that ours appear to be particularly reprehensible.  

[Gengs1 2583]

32 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I feel like we Texans need to get our shit together before we cry too much about Manchin or anyone’s Senators.  It’s not just that we keep electing Republicans to state-wide offices, it’s that ours appear to be particularly reprehensible.  

That’s like saying if Honey Boo-boo got her shit together she could lose weight and we all know that ain’t happening. Texas is like honey boo-boo and it won’t change 

[Js1 85258]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

I feel like we Texans need to get our shit together before we cry too much about Manchin or anyone’s Senators.  It’s not just that we keep electing Republicans to state-wide offices, it’s that ours appear to be particularly reprehensible.  

[Ghost of LL 15531]

3 hours ago, kevwun said:

They can almost never count on his vote for the really important legislation, so does it matter?  How many times has Manchin been the key vote in passing something the Republicans were fighting tooth and nail over?

Literally every fucking judge.  The Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, the Infrastructure Act.

Oh, you're going to say that we had one vote to spare.  But that means you're relying on Kyrsten Sinema.  And that means you really didn't have one vote to spare, because you cannot rely on Kyrsten Sinema.

[Chuckie Finster 22692]

 

Continuously amazed at how none of the old Democrats understand how the game is played now.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33859]

DINO

[Js1 85258]

More Manchin whining 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Leopards……faces……Fuck Senator Coal Mine.

[Js1 85258]

GOP: we are winning!

Checks math: 64% D, 26% R, 10% undecided 

[SydneyCarton 48051]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

GOP: we are winning!

Checks math: 64% D, 26% R, 10% undecided 

I’ll tell you, the Feinstein shit might almost be bearable if it means Senator Katie Porter. 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) is leading in the early polls in Montana, despite losing to Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in 2018.  

 

 

 

 

 

Senate Republicans have a good chance of winning back the majority in 2024, but their odds could tumble depending on the outcome of primaries in West Virginia, Montana and Arizona.  

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) is leading in the early polls in Montana, despite losing to Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in 2018.  

Republican strategists in Washington, D.C., see entrepreneur and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy as a more competitive matchup against Tester in the general election, but he is a relatively unknown candidate who trailed Rosendale by more than 50 points in a recent poll.  

In West Virginia, popular Gov. Jim Justice is favored by Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) but could face a tough primary challenge from Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), who is backed by the Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group with deep pockets. 

An East Carolina University poll of 957 West Virginia voters conducted May 22-23 showed Justice leading incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) by 22 points, 54 percent to 32 percent. But it showed Mooney in a statistical tie with Manchin, 41 percent to 40 percent.  

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4074931-gop-primaries-threaten-republican-hopes-winning-back-senate/

[gmr548 16575]

How many of those votes is he the deciding vote on?  It works both ways.  He votes for legislation that will pass regardless of what he does, but if it comes down to his vote, he's going to vote with the Republicans. 

*gestures toward Inflation Reduction Act*

[Js1 85258]

51 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) is leading in the early polls in Montana, despite losing to Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in 2018.  

 

 

 

 

 

Senate Republicans have a good chance of winning back the majority in 2024, but their odds could tumble depending on the outcome of primaries in West Virginia, Montana and Arizona.  

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) is leading in the early polls in Montana, despite losing to Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in 2018.  

Republican strategists in Washington, D.C., see entrepreneur and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy as a more competitive matchup against Tester in the general election, but he is a relatively unknown candidate who trailed Rosendale by more than 50 points in a recent poll.  

In West Virginia, popular Gov. Jim Justice is favored by Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) but could face a tough primary challenge from Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), who is backed by the Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group with deep pockets. 

An East Carolina University poll of 957 West Virginia voters conducted May 22-23 showed Justice leading incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) by 22 points, 54 percent to 32 percent. But it showed Mooney in a statistical tie with Manchin, 41 percent to 40 percent.  

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4074931-gop-primaries-threaten-republican-hopes-winning-back-senate/

Yet again, Senate primaries on the GOP side are more than likely to doom them in 2024. They may and could win back the senate, but most likely outcome is 50/50 or 51/49 R. Where with normalcy in their ranks, they’d be looking at likely pickups in WV, MT, OH and maybe AZ. Rosendale, Qari Lake and whatever crap comes out of Ohio is giving the Dems a chance to once again hold the Senate through another 2 years of a Biden presidency  

And they don’t have quite as favorable a map in 2026. 

Edited July 1, 2023 by Js1

[cactusflinthead 27598]

Arizona's Republican Party had less than $50,000 in cash reserves in its state and federal bank accounts as of March 31 to spend on overheads such as rent, payroll and political campaign operations, the filings show. At the same point four years ago, it had nearly $770,000.

The Michigan party's federal account had about $116,000 on March 31, a drop from nearly $867,000 two years ago. It has yet to disclose updated financial information for its state account this year.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/swing-state-republicans-bleed-donors-cash-over-trumps-false-election-claims-2023-07-05/

[Pescado_Rojo 19412]

17 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Arizona's Republican Party had less than $50,000 in cash reserves in its state and federal bank accounts as of March 31 to spend on overheads such as rent, payroll and political campaign operations, the filings show. At the same point four years ago, it had nearly $770,000.

The Michigan party's federal account had about $116,000 on March 31, a drop from nearly $867,000 two years ago. It has yet to disclose updated financial information for its state account this year.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/swing-state-republicans-bleed-donors-cash-over-trumps-false-election-claims-2023-07-05/

[bluto 4912]

Am I wrong to not give much attention to the local party pocket books when they are one Koch (very small to him) check away from being fully funded? 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

On the Koch bros

But, in the intervening time, many of the Trump apologists in the Koch orbit have soured on the ex-President. The deadly Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021, was a last straw for many, and the threat posed by a leader without respect for the rule of law—a key tenant for the free-market donors central to the Koch orbit—was too much to ignore. So, heading into the early days of the 2024 jockeying, it’s clear that the massive vault of cash controlled by these groups is up for grabs. It alone won’t be enough to win anyone the nomination—and maybe not enough to deny it to Trump—but it’s a force that doesn’t have a peer.

*tenet. Get it together Time.

https://time.com/6253038/koch-brothers-trump-gop-nomination/

[Voldemort86 2259]

Also keep in mind that creepy toad sheldon Adelson is dead. He’s been bankrolling the GOP for the last 20 years or so. Huge loss for them.

[SaucyJack 3488]

State Sen. Roland Gutierrez announcing Monday for U.S. Senate.

Links TBA

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]