2024 Senate Elections

[Dnaguy 11916]

On 10/31/2023 at 10:07 PM, Js1 said:

Amazing. She’s not up until 2028

I don’t think she’ll run though.

[gmr548 16576]

So, people are going to vote for Trump and Sherrod Brown?
M'kay.

I mean they clearly did in 2016-2018-2020 so I don’t know why that’s so hard to believe. People do it. There’s a non-zero bloc of Trump-Abbott-Beto voters from 2016-18.

[MrBig 5370]

19 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I feel like this seals the fate of the senate flipping back Red. The one unknown is that the Republicans often shoot themselves in the foot in nominating the worst candidate. See Roy Moore in Alabama.

If Texas Democrats want to win a statewide election like senator, they need to find the most right Democrat who most likely is a white guy. He needs to be pro-2A and at most, neutral on abortion. Perhaps say it should be a states right and the feds should stay out of it. If you can't beat Ted Cruz in a popularity contest, you're doing something wrong.

The Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate will be State Sen. Roland Gutierrez vs U.S. Rep Colin Allred. Two minority candidates who each represent a place where a mass shooting occurred (Uvalde and Allen). They are also against the Texas abortion law. 

I think James Talarico would have a better chance at beating Ted Cruz. He’s a smart, deeply religious man who uses logic and reason instead of arguing like a little bitch to get his way like Ted Cruz. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

Just now, MrBig said:

The Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate will be State Sen. Roland Gutierrez vs U.S. Rep Colin Allred. Two minority candidates who each represent a place where a mass shooting occurred (Uvalde and Allen). They are also against the Texas abortion law. 

I think James Talarico would have a better chance at beating Ted Cruz. He’s a smart, deeply religious man who uses logic and reason instead of arguing like a little bitch to get his way like Ted Cruz. 

keep trying the same thing and expecting a different result.

[Js1 85269]

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4300835-senate-republicans-say-election-results-sound-warning-for-2024/

Quote

Republican senators battling to win back the Senate majority say Democratic victories Tuesday in Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia are an early warning and a wake-up call ahead of next year’s elections.  

The GOP senators, who are vying to defeat Democratic incumbents in Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other swing states, say Tuesday’s results show that abortion remains a potent issue that will help Democratic candidates next year.  

Republican lawmakers also warn their party may have voter turnout problems that could hurt them in competitive Senate battlegrounds.

Quote

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said “the takeaway” for Republicans is “the issue of abortion is an important one to the electorate” and the party should recognize that. She said the results in Ohio “was the most direct example.”

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said voters showed once again Tuesday that they don’t want the government to interfere in their personal decisions about reproductive health care.  

Tillis said some Republican-controlled state legislatures have gone too far in restricting abortion. He said “some states … went further than they should have.” 

“We’ve seen that get rejected in Ohio,” he added, arguing that North Carolina passed a law limiting abortion that was more carefully calibrated to the views of the state’s voters.  

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said Senate Republican candidates need to frame their positions on abortion in a way that appeals to voters and stay away from endorsing a federal abortion ban.  

LMAO, as if JD Vance didn't immediately shit all over that strategy.

[Snake Diggity 4619]

2 hours ago, MrBig said:

The Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate will be State Sen. Roland Gutierrez vs U.S. Rep Colin Allred. Two minority candidates who each represent a place where a mass shooting occurred (Uvalde and Allen). They are also against the Texas abortion law. 

I think James Talarico would have a better chance at beating Ted Cruz. He’s a smart, deeply religious man who uses logic and reason instead of arguing like a little bitch to get his way like Ted Cruz. 

I like Talarico a lot but there’s no way he would win a statewide race.

 

If Texas is going to have a Democrat senator in the next 12 years, it’s going to have to be somebody way outside the box.  A celebrity (not McConaughey but somebody like him) or someone super wealthy (like maybe an HEB heir).

Edited November 10, 2023 by Snake Diggity

[LCHorn 2612]

2 hours ago, MrBig said:

I think James Talarico would have a better chance at beating Ted Cruz. He’s a smart, deeply religious man who uses logic and reason instead of arguing like a little bitch to get his way like Ted Cruz. 

Are you the guy on the board that is constantly pimping Talarico?  He’s going to need to actually accomplish something first besides giving the diminished number of white male Democrats a candidate who looks like them.  At least run for mayor or something.  
 

NYT just ran a conversation with Frank Bruni, Nate Silver and someone else with whom I’m unfamiliar and one of the three commented that they thought Allred is a better candidate than Beto was in 2018.  I disagree, I think that campaign represents the top end of what a Dem could have done in that race but I am interested to see if Allred’s pending loss shows us something new about the electorate.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

37 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Are you the guy on the board that is constantly pimping Talarico?  He’s going to need to actually accomplish something first besides giving the diminished number of white male Democrats a candidate who looks like them.  At least run for mayor or something.  
 

NYT just ran a conversation with Frank Bruni, Nate Silver and someone else with whom I’m unfamiliar and one of the three commented that they thought Allred is a better candidate than Beto was in 2018.  I disagree, I think that campaign represents the top end of what a Dem could have done in that race but I am interested to see if Allred’s pending loss shows us something new about the electorate.  

With the current voting patterns, a Democrat needs to get more votes out of South Texas/Valley, or at stop the leakage to the GOP.

I'm trying to decide whether Trump's coattails would hurt or help Cruz. I already think that he would underperform Trump in Texas. Some Trump voters already hate Cruz but it would seem unlikely too many Biden voters would cross the aisle to vote for Cruz.  Therefore I think Trump hurts Cruz.

With that begin written, if Trump takes <53% of the vote, it's possible that Cruz could lose. I would feel better if Cruz was facing 2018 Beto next year. A Dem win will require an energetic and inspiring candidate. If they run like most Dem statewide candidates, we get another 6 years of Ted.

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

Are you the guy on the board that is constantly pimping Talarico?  He’s going to need to actually accomplish something first besides giving the diminished number of white male Democrats a candidate who looks like them.  At least run for mayor or something.  
 

NYT just ran a conversation with Frank Bruni, Nate Silver and someone else with whom I’m unfamiliar and one of the three commented that they thought Allred is a better candidate than Beto was in 2018.  I disagree, I think that campaign represents the top end of what a Dem could have done in that race but I am interested to see if Allred’s pending loss shows us something new about the electorate.  

You might be thinking of me. I was one of Talarico's constituents before redistricting. I think he's a a rising star and a very impressive guy, but I hope the party doesn't do what they usually do and try to rush him to the head of the line and get him beat in a race he can't win. I agree he needs to find a step up from State Rep, but not sure what that would be. He would have been a great candidate for the old Tx31, but it went from R+4 to R+15 with redistricting. Maybe if Lloyd Doggett decides to hang it up he can take a crack at Tx 37? 

Texas grad with a Masters in public policy from Harvard

Texas Monthly "Top 10 Legislator" 

Introduced the legislation to cap insulin prices that the House eventually passed. 

Part of the group that passed the legislation to keep local PDs from contracting with reality TV shows. 

Not sure how much more you could expect from a 3 term State Rep from the minority party...

[Bozo_Casanova 26434]

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

If Texas is going to have a Democrat senator in the next 12 years, it’s going to have to be somebody way outside the box.  A celebrity (not McConaughey but somebody like him) or someone super wealthy (like maybe an HEB heir).

I got just the guy

[BamaATL 16593]

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I got just the guy

Does Selena Gomez maintain a residence in Texas?

[LCHorn 2612]

13 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Not sure how much more you could expect from a 3 term State Rep from the minority party...

The issue, for which you likely agree, isn’t specific to just Talarico.  It’s that any state rep from the minority party is a bad candidate to win a campaign against Ted Cruz.  

Plus, I’m picking on you Talarico partisans a bit-ya’ll are a little like Westlake parents thinking every one of your football players should be recruited by UT.  

Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin, just to name two local reps, have more appeal, in my opinion, than Talarico and no one is promoting them as formidable in a hypothetical race against Cruz.

[atomheartbevo 89623]

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

On 11/11/2023 at 5:40 AM, LCHorn said:

The issue, for which you likely agree, isn’t specific to just Talarico.  It’s that any state rep from the minority party is a bad candidate to win a campaign against Ted Cruz.  

Plus, I’m picking on you Talarico partisans a bit-ya’ll are a little like Westlake parents thinking every one of your football players should be recruited by UT.  

Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin, just to name two local reps, have more appeal, in my opinion, than Talarico and no one is promoting them as formidable in a hypothetical race against Cruz.

No one is really promoting Talarico as formidable in a race against Cruz, either. Just the opposite, really. Everyone here said he'd have no chance when it got brought up. 

One of the worst effects of Gerrymandering is that it makes it really hard to build a bench. With so few winnable seats out there, you have great candidates like Hinojosa, Goodwin, Talarico, etc that have nowhere to go after several years in the State ledge, or city council or whatever. Ideally they'd be able to move up to a congressional seat or state senate seat or whatever to continue to build their brand and run statewide in the future, but Texas Republicans have made that virtually impossible. Sucks, but it's what we're up against. 

[bolverk 29651]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

I don't really have a dog in this hunt with virtually zero connection to New Jersey and know next to nothing about either candidate, but I ain't much of a fan of political dynasties on principle. That said, Menendez just needs to drop out.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/poll-andy-kim-leads-tammy-murphy-by-19-points-in-u-s-senate-race/

 

[Js1 85269]

Just now, bolverk said:

I don't really have a dog in this hunt with virtually zero connection to New Jersey and know next to nothing about either candidate, but I ain't much of a fan of political dynasties on principle. That said, Menendez just needs to drop out.

 

He does.  I am also quite confident Andy Kim will be the next Senator from New Jersey. 

Damn, NJ is going to have such a good Senate team with Booker and Kim.  So jealous. 

[High Plains Drifter 11026]

 

On 11/10/2023 at 1:29 PM, Snake Diggity said:

If Texas is going to have a Democrat senator in the next 12 years, it’s going to have to be somebody way outside the box.  A celebrity (not McConaughey but somebody like him) or someone super wealthy (like maybe an HEB heir).

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Senator Pop has a nice ring to it.

The panel would also accept Governor Pop.

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

1 hour ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Senator Pop has a nice ring to it.

The panel would also accept Governor Pop.

 

Greg, or Candi? 

[Brisketexan 105057]

On 11/10/2023 at 1:29 PM, Snake Diggity said:

If Texas is going to have a Democrat senator in the next 12 years, it’s going to have to be somebody way outside the box.  A celebrity (not McConaughey but somebody like him) or someone super wealthy (like maybe an HEB heir).

This.  The only shot at a statewide Dem winning is if that candidate is non-traditional and runs an "asymmetric" campaign:  A celeb or somesuch, who says things like "Ted Cruz is a carpetbagging coward who abandoned Texas in its hour of need.  I stand with Texans, I don't run away from them."  Some Beto-ish rhetoric, but more sound-bitey.

[Js1 85269]

Allred isn't going to win this year.  Cornyn won by 10 in a presidential year.  It's not an environment conducive to a Dem winning. 

Maybe 2026, if Cornyn retires and it is a Trump presidency midterm (assuming we still have elections), do Dems stand a chance with the right candidate and the Texas GOP nominates someone like Paxton.  If it is a Biden second term midterm, not even worth running someone with a future just to lose by 20. 

Then the next chance is 2030, which, if history is any indication, would likely be a GOP president's first midterm and ripe for the picking - either against Cruz or whoever replaced him when he was appointed to SCOTUS. 

Wow, I need a shower now. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Allred isn't going to win this year.  Cornyn won by 10 in a presidential year.  It's not an environment conducive to a Dem winning. 

Maybe 2026, if Cornyn retires and it is a Trump presidency midterm (assuming we still have elections), do Dems stand a chance with the right candidate and the Texas GOP nominates someone like Paxton.  If it is a Biden second term midterm, not even worth running someone with a future just to lose by 20. 

Then the next chance is 2030, which, if history is any indication, would likely be a GOP president's first midterm and ripe for the picking - either against Cruz or whoever replaced him when he was appointed to SCOTUS. 

Wow, I need a shower now. 

We need a puke +rep emoji

[Snake Diggity 4619]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  The only shot at a statewide Dem winning is if that candidate is non-traditional and runs an "asymmetric" campaign:  A celeb or somesuch, who says things like "Ted Cruz is a carpetbagging coward who abandoned Texas in its hour of need.  I stand with Texans, I don't run away from them."  Some Beto-ish rhetoric, but more sound-bitey.

People I would be willing to vet for the job (I know nothing about almost all of them except they’re famous Texans with Q scores I think would give them a chance):

Morgan Fairchild

Ethan Hawke

Lucy Baines Johnson 

Kris Kristofferson

Eva Longoria

Lance Armstrong (mf seems to be Teflon)

Greg Popovich

Matthew McConaughey

Mark Cuban

Rhett Miller

Any HEB heir named Butt between 35 and 65

Edited November 15, 2023 by Snake Diggity

[Fudge Nuggets 19187]

Aren’t the HEB people aggy af?

[Js1 85269]

 

About as close to Romney 2.0 as we could get.  Curtis is normal and actually cares about the environment, climate change (as those policies align with conservative principles, but doesn't believe it is a hoax) and bipartisanship.  Feels like this is who Utah Dems could get behind. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

 

About as close to Romney 2.0 as we could get.  Curtis is normal and actually cares about the environment, climate change (as those policies align with conservative principles, but doesn't believe it is a hoax) and bipartisanship.  Feels like this is who Utah Dems could get behind. 

Has Romney endorsed a potential successor yet, or do you think he'll let the primary play out? The other guy that's declared is MAGA, right? 

[Js1 85269]

31 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Has Romney endorsed a potential successor yet, or do you think he'll let the primary play out? The other guy that's declared is MAGA, right? 

I could see him endorsing Curtis. But Curtis hasn’t originally declared yet 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

 

[YGIFS 19449]

I don't think I'd call it "Career Suicide", Rachel (whoever the fuck you are).  Porter is only 49.  She has 20-30 years left in elected office if she chooses that route.  That's time enough to get way up into House leadership, run for Senate again one day in a few cycles, join a cabinet as Sec. of Labor or Commerce or Education or H&HS.  She only got into federally elected office about 4 years ago so she's got a lot of runway left still.  Never mind her deep knowledge on banking, she could make a head of Treasury, FDIC, or SEC.  And top of all that, is at the top stair of the dugout for SCOTUS or Court of Appeals one day and could serve there for decades.  She's a brilliant legal mind on top of everything else.  

What cracks me up about that poll is fucking Steve Garvey.  75 year old serial philanderer whose children repeatedly sought legal protection to never have to see him again, just get money from him because he's a complete piece of shit.  I admit, I've voted for a celebrity or two in my time at the ballot box, but fucking Steve Garvey?  GQP'ers on the football board bemoaning some dude that fathered three kids out of wedlock, Garvey has at least 5 that he's admitted to, lord knows how many more.  I don't give a shit if Steve knocks up 50 women, so long as he provides for the children and nice to the mom.  But you know if elected, first thing he's gonna do is take out all those decades of frustration with mistressses, ex-wives, and daughters on American Women with some draconian ass shit.  Were Ron Cey or Steve Sax just booked up this Senate cycle out there or what? 

[Serak The Preparer 3431]

36 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

What cracks me up about that poll is fucking Steve Garvey.  75 year old serial philanderer whose children repeatedly sought legal protection to never have to see him again, just get money from him because he's a complete piece of shit.  I admit, I've voted for a celebrity or two in my time at the ballot box, but fucking Steve Garvey?  GQP'ers on the football board bemoaning some dude that fathered three kids out of wedlock, Garvey has at least 5 that he's admitted to, lord knows how many more.  I don't give a shit if Steve knocks up 50 women, so long as he provides for the children and nice to the mom.  But you know if elected, first thing he's gonna do is take out all those decades of frustration with mistressses, ex-wives, and daughters on American Women with some draconian ass shit.  Were Ron Cey or Steve Sax just booked up this Senate cycle out there or what? 

I think that 19% of Californians are near-sighted and think they're voting for the Family Feud host. Would be great to see him in the Senate, not gonna lie.

[YGIFS 19449]

2 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

I think that 19% of Californians are near-sighted and think they're voting for the Family Feud host. Would be great to see him in the Senate, not gonna lie.

Then maybe America will get lucky and Steve Harvey-Garvey will pull a Ray Combs and hang it up.

[Brisketexan 105057]

15 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

I think that 19% of Californians are near-sighted and think they're voting for the Family Feud host. Would be great to see him in the Senate, not gonna lie.

I would swap out Steve Harvey for 97.8% of all elected officials, and that number might be low.

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

It would be interesting to see where Barbra Lee's voters would go if she dropped out. Would Schiff and Porter split them, or would they mostly go to one or the other? 

[Js1 85269]

I guess it's been a while to discuss the state of the Senate

• 7 retirements - Laphonza Butler (CA), Tom Carper (DE), Mike Braun (IN), Ben Cardin (MD), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Mitt Romney (UT), Joe Manchin (WV)
• Rumored retirements - Bernie Sanders (VT) (still deciding)
• Safe D seats - CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MN, NJ*, NM, NY, RI, VT*, VA, WA
• Safe R seats - IN, MS, MO, NE (both seats), ND, TN, UT, WY
• Lean/likely D seats - ME*, MI, NV, PA, WI
• Lean/likely R seats - FL, TX, WV
• Tossups - OH, MT

*NJ - Menendez is absolutely going to lose a primary, but whoever wins that is going to win the election
*VT - Safe D even if Bernie (I) retires
*ME - Angus King (I) running for re-election

The Republicans will win WV easily.  No contest.

They are currently trying to lose OH and Montana as best they can.  Bernie Moreno is the weakest GOP candidate in OH and he got the Trump endorsement.  Rosendale is not the Senate GOP's pick for the race and is likely going to jump in and has had some good sized leads in primary polling.  He'd probably get a Trump endorsement too. 

Michigan, Nevada, PA, Wisconsin - what a bunch of crap they are trying to run.  I'm not worried about these seats.

FL, TX - I know Cruz's campaign seems to have some "alarm" about polling/trends, but I don't see either Allred or Gutierrez finishing within 5 points of Cruz in a presidential race.  Florida is Florida - Scott has never won a statewide race there by more than 1.15 (2010 governor 48.87-47.72; 2014 governor 48.14-47.07; 2018 senate 50.06-49.93). 

[pyrohornIII 4814]

On 11/10/2023 at 10:57 AM, MrBig said:

The Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate will be State Sen. Roland Gutierrez vs U.S. Rep Colin Allred. Two minority candidates who each represent a place where a mass shooting occurred (Uvalde and Allen). They are also against the Texas abortion law. 

I think James Talarico would have a better chance at beating Ted Cruz. He’s a smart, deeply religious man who uses logic and reason instead of arguing like a little bitch to get his way like Ted Cruz. 

Well, we are where we are now with our primaries set.  Allred leads in funds collected, but Gutierrez is working the campaign trail hard and gaining recognition and support every day.  I have met 6 of the 9 candidates, and Allred isn't one of them.   I'll just say he hasn't been as available as most of the others.  I really admire those I have met and all would be a step up from Cruz, but to be practical it will come down to a runoff between Allred and Gutierrez.   Gutierrez reminds me of Beto with a personality.  He is humble and available and speaks with a genuineness that Beto seemed to lack.  Allred is running a Hegar type campaign it seems.  Maybe it will pick up, but I think he is saving his treasure chest for the runoff, and then the general.

I really suggest you get out to see Roland when he gets into your neck of the woods.   He's a good speaker.  I feel he and Talarico are two of the best rising stars on the Texas Dem bench presently.

 

Watch for the debates.  There is one hosted by the PAC134 already online.   PAC 134 Texas Dem Senator debate

 Most senate hopefuls made it, but Allred and Gonzalez both missed.  There is one coming up sponsored by the AFL CIO, and it will be streamed on their Facebook page.

[Zonahorn 8079]

On 1/22/2024 at 11:51 AM, Js1 said:

I guess it's been a while to discuss the state of the Senate

• 7 retirements - Laphonza Butler (CA), Tom Carper (DE), Mike Braun (IN), Ben Cardin (MD), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Mitt Romney (UT), Joe Manchin (WV)
• Rumored retirements - Bernie Sanders (VT) (still deciding)
• Safe D seats - CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MN, NJ*, NM, NY, RI, VT*, VA, WA
• Safe R seats - IN, MS, MO, NE (both seats), ND, TN, UT, WY
• Lean/likely D seats - ME*, MI, NV, PA, WI
• Lean/likely R seats - FL, TX, WV
• Tossups - OH, MT

*NJ - Menendez is absolutely going to lose a primary, but whoever wins that is going to win the election
*VT - Safe D even if Bernie (I) retires
*ME - Angus King (I) running for re-election

The Republicans will win WV easily.  No contest.

They are currently trying to lose OH and Montana as best they can.  Bernie Moreno is the weakest GOP candidate in OH and he got the Trump endorsement.  Rosendale is not the Senate GOP's pick for the race and is likely going to jump in and has had some good sized leads in primary polling.  He'd probably get a Trump endorsement too. 

Michigan, Nevada, PA, Wisconsin - what a bunch of crap they are trying to run.  I'm not worried about these seats.

FL, TX - I know Cruz's campaign seems to have some "alarm" about polling/trends, but I don't see either Allred or Gutierrez finishing within 5 points of Cruz in a presidential race.  Florida is Florida - Scott has never won a statewide race there by more than 1.15 (2010 governor 48.87-47.72; 2014 governor 48.14-47.07; 2018 senate 50.06-49.93). 

Can't wait to make Kari Lake lose again

[Guest]

15 hours ago, pyrohornIII said:

Well, we are where we are now with our primaries set.  Allred leads in funds collected, but Gutierrez is working the campaign trail hard and gaining recognition and support every day.  I have met 6 of the 9 candidates, and Allred isn't one of them.   I'll just say he hasn't been as available as most of the others.  I really admire those I have met and all would be a step up from Cruz, but to be practical it will come down to a runoff between Allred and Gutierrez.   Gutierrez reminds me of Beto with a personality.  He is humble and available and speaks with a genuineness that Beto seemed to lack.  Allred is running a Hegar type campaign it seems.  Maybe it will pick up, but I think he is saving his treasure chest for the runoff, and then the general.

I really suggest you get out to see Roland when he gets into your neck of the woods.   He's a good speaker.  I feel he and Talarico are two of the best rising stars on the Texas Dem bench presently.

 

Watch for the debates.  There is one hosted by the PAC134 already online.   PAC 134 Texas Dem Senator debate

 Most senate hopefuls made it, but Allred and Gonzalez both missed.  There is one coming up sponsored by the AFL CIO, and it will be streamed on their Facebook page.

I first became aware of Gutierrez due to Uvalde. Was extremely impressed and continued to be as he has fought all he could for those families.

As someone that Uvalde really impacted, I'm all for Gutierrez but honestly seems like it's not the issue with most Texans that it is with me. 

[Js1 85269]

28 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Can't wait to make Kari Lake lose again

LOL I had a whole thing about AZ and forgot to include it.  Whoops

[Zonahorn 8079]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LOL I had a whole thing about AZ and forgot to include it.  Whoops

Not like she has a chance of winning a senate seat anyway.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Speak of the devil

 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Speak of the devil

 

Wearing a wire?

[Brisketexan 105057]

3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Speak of the devil

 

What I enjoyed was digging a little deeper into that article, and being introduced to the wife of the AZ GQP chair, Marina DeWit.  Seen in this picture asking "are any of you ready to have the most boring sex in your entire life?"

[Underdog 28544]

Boring sex is still sex. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

On 1/22/2024 at 12:51 PM, Js1 said:

I guess it's been a while to discuss the state of the Senate

• 7 retirements - Laphonza Butler (CA), Tom Carper (DE), Mike Braun (IN), Ben Cardin (MD), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Mitt Romney (UT), Joe Manchin (WV)
• Rumored retirements - Bernie Sanders (VT) (still deciding)
• Safe D seats - CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MN, NJ*, NM, NY, RI, VT*, VA, WA
• Safe R seats - IN, MS, MO, NE (both seats), ND, TN, UT, WY
• Lean/likely D seats - ME*, MI, NV, PA, WI
• Lean/likely R seats - FL, TX, WV
• Tossups - OH, MT

*NJ - Menendez is absolutely going to lose a primary, but whoever wins that is going to win the election
*VT - Safe D even if Bernie (I) retires
*ME - Angus King (I) running for re-election

The Republicans will win WV easily.  No contest.

They are currently trying to lose OH and Montana as best they can.  Bernie Moreno is the weakest GOP candidate in OH and he got the Trump endorsement.  Rosendale is not the Senate GOP's pick for the race and is likely going to jump in and has had some good sized leads in primary polling.  He'd probably get a Trump endorsement too. 

Michigan, Nevada, PA, Wisconsin - what a bunch of crap they are trying to run.  I'm not worried about these seats.

FL, TX - I know Cruz's campaign seems to have some "alarm" about polling/trends, but I don't see either Allred or Gutierrez finishing within 5 points of Cruz in a presidential race.  Florida is Florida - Scott has never won a statewide race there by more than 1.15 (2010 governor 48.87-47.72; 2014 governor 48.14-47.07; 2018 senate 50.06-49.93). 

I agree with all of this.

As I've said before, Nevada is like Democratic Florida.  The Republicans always think they're going to win there; they never do.  It's not to say that the Dems don't need to work for it.  It is to say that given a decent Democratic incumbent--and Jacky Rosen is an above-decent incumbent--the Democrats shouldn't have much trouble holding this seat.

On Texas, I just don't have a feel for it yet.  Cruz is wildly unpopular.  But it's going to take an exceptional Democratic candidate to beat him.  And even then, the presidential race is really going to dictate the outcome.  If Trump is down big in the polling and Republicans are demoralized--something akin to 1996--I could see an upset.  But otherwise, . . . no.

In Florida, you're right about Rick Scott.  But Florida has become a lot more Republican over the past six years.  The Dems are probably going to have Debbie Mucarsel-Powell as their nominee and . . . yeah--I just don't know how strong a strong a candidate she is.  I don't think she really lights me up.

[gmr548 16576]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I agree with all of this.

As I've said before, Nevada is like Democratic Florida.  The Republicans always think they're going to win there; they never do.  It's not to say that the Dems don't need to work for it.  It is to say that given a decent Democratic incumbent--and Jacky Rosen is an above-decent incumbent--the Democrats shouldn't have much trouble holding this seat.

On Texas, I just don't have a feel for it yet.  Cruz is wildly unpopular.  But it's going to take an exceptional Democratic candidate to beat him.  And even then, the presidential race is really going to dictate the outcome.  If Trump is down big in the polling and Republicans are demoralized--something akin to 1996--I could see an upset.  But otherwise, . . . no.

In Florida, you're right about Rick Scott.  But Florida has become a lot more Republican over the past six years.  The Dems are probably going to have Debbie Mucarsel-Powell as their nominee and . . . yeah--I just don't know how strong a strong a candidate she is.  I don't think she really lights me up.

Nevada's got a Republican Governor right now so they've won something. Tend to agree that it's a D tilt; it'll be a tough out, but beating incumbents is hard.

Cruz will win Texas by 4-6 points. He can only lose if he alienates Cult 45. He's already endorsed Trump so I am assuming he'll stay in line the next 10 months and it'll be a non-event.

Florida, I mean, there are some bright spots for Dems in the past 12 months if you squint but yeah I can't see it with Trump on the ballot.

Senate is a heavy R overall. I mostly agree with @Js1's assessment of individual races, though I'd move WV to Safe R. But those lean/likely D's include a few that are just slight leans, and FL-T are really likely R. Dems have to make sure they take no losses in AZ, NV, WI, MI, and PA; win tossup-at-best defensive races in MT and OH, and win the presidency. Long odds on a parlay like that. Lose even once in any of those and it's a GOP senate.

Biden and Schumer need to get busy with judicial vacancies.

[TeeDubya 3362]

What is the status of that putz-wipe coward Hawley in Missouri?  Is he going to win?

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

What is the status of that putz-wipe coward Hawley in Missouri?  Is he going to win?

Unfortunately he’s safe. After he beat mccaskill, he probably won’t see a close race again.  Missouri has gotten redder and redder over time.

[atomheartbevo 89623]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

What I enjoyed was digging a little deeper into that article, and being introduced to the wife of the AZ GQP chair, Marina DeWit.  Seen in this picture asking "are any of you ready to have the most boring sex in your entire life?"

[Ghost of LL 15531]

47 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Nevada's got a Republican Governor right now so they've won something. Tend to agree that it's a D tilt; it'll be a tough out, but beating incumbents is hard.

Cruz will win Texas by 4-6 points. He can only lose if he alienates Cult 45. He's already endorsed Trump so I am assuming he'll stay in line the next 10 months and it'll be a non-event.

Florida, I mean, there are some bright spots for Dems in the past 12 months if you squint but yeah I can't see it with Trump on the ballot.

Senate is a heavy R overall. I mostly agree with @Js1's assessment of individual races, though I'd move WV to Safe R. But those lean/likely D's include a few that are just slight leans, and FL-T are really likely R. Dems have to make sure they take no losses in AZ, NV, WI, MI, and PA; win tossup-at-best defensive races in MT and OH, and win the presidency. Long odds on a parlay like that. Lose even once in any of those and it's a GOP senate.

Biden and Schumer need to get busy with judicial vacancies.

I don't think Montana is a tossup.  Tester is very popular there, and the power of incumbency is very strong in small states.  It's not like here, where people have heard of Ted Cruz.  In Montana, most people have probably met John Tester.  He's probably provided some constituent service for a significant percentage of the voters.  So in a small state like that, there's got to be a good reason to toss out an incumbent.  And barring an absolute red wave that I don't see forming with Trump at the top of the ballot, it's unlikely to happen.

I put that as a "Lean D."

Ohio's a different matter.

[Js1 85269]

If Moreno wins that primary, and he has the Trump endorsement, it’s going to be a race. Candidate quality matters and Moreno is not good 

[BamaATL 16593]

18 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Maybe cold fusion is possible?