2024 Senate Elections

[bluto 4932]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

The state GOP owns this state. It’s implementing highly unpopular laws, racist laws, laws that relegate women to second class citizens without body autonomy, and they’re winning elections. They are the state of Texas and they are implementing racist and misogynistic laws, and they’re getting re elected. Given that, how is the state NOT getting more revisit and misogynistic? 
 

 

Not just winning but trouncing. And the change in just the last 2 yrs with the primary results as evidence is pure nuttery. 

[tx 3 putt 77060]

On 4/16/2024 at 3:44 PM, Js1 said:

Yes, it's only April, but cash on hand totals:

Montana:
Tester $12.7m
Sheehy $1.9m

WIsconsin:
Baldwin $10.3m
Hovde $5.3m

Michigan:
Slotkin $8.6m
Rogers $1.4m

Nevada:
Rosen $13.2m
Brown $2.3m

Ohio:
Brown $16.0m
Moreno $1.8m

Arizona:
Gallego $9.6m
Lake $2.5m

Pennsylvania:
Casey $11.9m
McCormick $6.2m

there’s Going to be zero financial help this election cycle ?

[Js1 85409]

A lot of weird fretting about Maryland has disappeared, as I predicted 

2 new polls from PPP and Memerson both have the two Dems up on former governor Hogan, both up 10/11 on Hogan

 

[Jive Turkey 12617]

This ain’t gonna win you the election, Colin.  I mean, nothing will.  But at least don’t put voters to sleep with your ads.  Not one mention of what a choad Ted Cruz is.

 

[chainsaw 9870]

7 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This ain’t gonna win you the election, Colin.  I mean, nothing will.  But at least don’t put voters to sleep with your ads.  Not one mention of what a choad Ted Cruz is.

 

the texas democratic party needs to be rebuilt from the ground up.

[Js1 85409]

My god he’s BORING

[Mdhorn 5970]

On 5/9/2024 at 12:41 PM, Js1 said:

A lot of weird fretting about Maryland has disappeared, as I predicted 

2 new polls from PPP and Memerson both have the two Dems up on former governor Hogan, both up 10/11 on Hogan

 

Hogan was never going to win.  He was only governor because some wealthy suburbanites were against the purple line, and there was a lot of apathy as to whether a Republican could win, so why vote. He did, and admittedly, he wasn't bad. Of course, he was kept in check by Democrats, as were they by his office--which is really how government should run.   I didn't agree with everything, but he also wasn't beholden to the party, and didn't bend the knee.  

[chainsaw 9870]

1 minute ago, Mdhorn said:

Hogan was never going to win.  He was only governor because some wealthy suburbanites were against the purple line, and there was a lot of apathy as to whether a Republican could win, so why vote. He did, and admittedly, he wasn't bad. Of course, he was kept in check by Democrats, as were they by his office--which is really how government should run.   I didn't agree with everything, but he also wasn't beholden to the party, and didn't bend the knee.  

I was surprised to see Sununu go on some sunday show a few weeks ago and bend the knee for Trump

[Foosters 17858]

Surprised he passed the NFL physicals without a spine

[YGIFS 19452]

There are 4 truly competitive U.S. House races in Texas this year, never mind a couple of State Senate seats.  And the Democrats are gonna throw $50mm+ at Allred to lose to Cruz by 6-8 points and lose all those other seats.  And then spend 2 years scratching their heads.  What's the definition of insanity again?  We can't get to 2032 unless everybody gets their shit together in the next 8 years and quits being dumb asses.  

[Js1 85409]

4???

The map was designed for 2 

[Biff Tannen 45691]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

My god he’s BORING

And we definitely can't have that in this reality TV show we've all put ourselves into. 

[SubliminalHorn 6806]

10 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

And we definitely can't have that in this reality TV show we've all put ourselves into. 

Yeah not one AR. He’s not even wearing a Kevlar vest!

[atomheartbevo 89729]

4 hours ago, chainsaw said:

the texas democratic party needs to be rebuilt from the ground up.

We need a James Carville or Karl Rove type who understands A) How to get shit done and B) that the R's are dirty as fuck, and you don't get anywhere playing nice with them.

[berlinerbaer 678]

On 5/16/2024 at 4:33 PM, YGIFS said:

There are 4 truly competitive U.S. House races in Texas this year, never mind a couple of State Senate seats.  And the Democrats are gonna throw $50mm+ at Allred to lose to Cruz by 6-8 points and lose all those other seats.  And then spend 2 years scratching their heads.  What's the definition of insanity again?  We can't get to 2032 unless everybody gets their shit together in the next 8 years and quits being dumb asses.  

I just threw Allred $50 but yeah, you're right.

A cheat sheet on who/where to donate in Texas would be helpful. For example, last cycle I remember all the swingy TX state house districts were bundled together into one account on act blue IIRC. 

[Js1 85409]

@GopherRock

MN GOP going to pick Royce White to run against Klobuchar??

Did they see what Herschel managed??

[YGIFS 19452]

17 hours ago, Js1 said:

@GopherRock

MN GOP going to pick Royce White to run against Klobuchar??

Did they see what Herschel managed??

He managed two or three complete sentences over a full year of campaigning?  Is that anything?  

[Pancho 44856]

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26488]

 

and it just goes on and on like that. NFL, Obama, blah, blah, blah…

 

[chainsaw 9870]

55 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

and it just goes on and on like that. NFL, Obama, blah, blah, blah…

 

He's also pandering to the right by acting "tough" on immigration. News flash to the incompetent Texas Dems and their overpaid consultants: any voter who wants "tough" immigration policy is just going to vote for Ted Cruz. The voters you are pretending to court do not exist.

[YGIFS 19452]

^

Yep, this.  Instead of spending money to take back a couple of competitive U.S. House and State seats, they're gonna throw $50-$75mm behind Allred and fuck everything up yet again.  Incremental victories are called just that for a reason.  Some people really need to start thinking of primaries, not general election defeats.  But keep doing you, worked so fucking great for the last 30 years.  

You take the lesser of two evils every chance you can.  There is no panacea.  But they'll fuck it up.  once again.  

[The Dog 44062]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

Trump leads Biden by 5 in that same poll in Arizona.

[atomheartbevo 89729]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

With any luck,  all the folks in the Kari lake photo will be gone within 5-7 years.

[Underdog 28711]

We’re here for bingo, who is this bimbo? 

[Js1 85409]

1 hour ago, Underdog said:

We’re here for bingo, who is this bimbo? 

Her next career move after she loses again - bingo caller 

Edited May 20 by Js1

[Chuckie Finster 22700]

On 5/18/2024 at 6:50 PM, Js1 said:

@GopherRock

MN GOP going to pick Royce White to run against Klobuchar??

Did they see what Herschel managed??

Sometimes I wonder if I base too much of my opinion of a person on political affiliation, but time and time again the people I hated before I really started following politics end up emerging as Republican congressional candidates. It's honestly a bit comforting.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2841]

19 hours ago, chainsaw said:

He's also pandering to the right by acting "tough" on immigration. News flash to the incompetent Texas Dems and their overpaid consultants: any voter who wants "tough" immigration policy is just going to vote for Ted Cruz. The voters you are pretending to court do not exist.

Completely untrue.  Unless you are just assuming that the only "tough"policy is a Trump policy.

Colin's doing a straight up "moderate suburban" strategy that won him his seat and has basically been very successful throughout the US. I think Gaza has really made things difficult but Biden would be a lot stronger if he had slow played changes in immigration policy and really focused on a message of welcoming immigrants while looking tough on illegal entry. 

The "you didn't support our last minute efforts do try to fix the border" schtick, by itself, isn't going to work. 

[Js1 85409]

1 minute ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Colin's doing a straight up "moderate suburban" strategy that won him his seat

That strategy isn’t going to work statewide. 

[BamaATL 16593]

7 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

With any luck,  all the folks in the Kari lake photo will be gone within 5-7 years.

I'm more optimistic, lets hope for under 5 months.  

[Jive Turkey 12617]

This could go in the cult thread as well. 

 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2841]

24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That strategy isn’t going to work statewide. 

I think there is a decent argument that no strategy for any Dem is going to work statewide but a low key one for a black athlete is better than most.

[StassneyHorn 6614]

18 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I think there is a decent argument that no strategy for any Dem is going to work statewide but a low key one for a black athlete is better than most.

It says the ad is going up in key areas in South Texas. I’m sure he has a plan for what messages he wants to hammer in specific areas of Texas and that’s part of it.

[Chuckie Finster 22700]

45 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This could go in the cult thread as well. 

 

I know it's overdone to claim that the other party is mentally ill, but Royce is LITERALLY mentally ill.  It's the only reason anyone knows who he is.

[LCHorn 2621]

47 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I think there is a decent argument that no strategy for any Dem is going to work statewide but a low key one for a black athlete is better than most.

Ah, the "lull them to sleep" gambit, AKA Lupe Valdez but darker and with more muscles instead of an LEO background. 

Beto created a pretty good template for how to campaign and could have crafted a credible run in another race against a candidate with high negatives (say Dan Patrick) had he not gotten googley eyed about POTUS and gone hard left on guns.  I bet if we asked 100 random Texas voters who Colin Allred is 90 of them will have no or a wrong answer. 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2841]

Well what's your issue then?  Is it because he's unknown or he's running the wrong kind of campaign.  I mean, I'd see some advantages to him being an actor or a rock star with instant name recognition, but the Dems don't have the balls to do that.

I just don't see any advantage in him pretending he's a firebrand progressive, because he isn't, and that's not going to be a big advantage over him just being himself.  

[Gil Bang 25975]

New Jersey Republicans should have their best chance in decades to win a Senate seat with Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez on trial, but the leading candidates are mired in a losing strategy: supporting Donald Trump.

It’s become a ritual for Republican candidates nationwide, and tends to lead to success in party primaries. But backing Trump hasn’t worked yet for anyone seeking statewide office in New Jersey.

The party’s conundrum is on stark display in the Senate primary: Christine Serrano Glassner, a Trump-endorsed mayor, is all in on 2020 election denial while the moderate hotelier Curtis Bashaw is now backing Trump with no substantial record of supporting him in the past.

Chris Russell, a longtime top Republican strategist in the state not affiliated with either campaign, sees this as a liability. “Anytime that a Republican in New Jersey gets into a position where they are identified solely by the national brand, it just doesn’t go well.”

It also hasn’t worked in a number of flippable statewide races in blue and swing states around the country, with notable losses for Trump-backed candidates in last year’s Kentucky governor’s race and the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate election that helped preserve Democrats’ slim majority.

Trump lost by double digits in the past two presidential elections in New Jersey, and his support of the GOP nominee for Senate didn’t help defeat Menendez in 2018.

Yet endorsing the former president seems to be a must for most Republican candidates. The same is true in the early stage of the 2025 Republican primary for New Jersey governor, with one of the two declared candidates endorsing Trump last month after famously calling him a “charlatan” who is unfit to be president nine years ago.

In the Senate contest, both candidates are racing to pledge their allegiances to Trump ahead of the June 4 primary, while Democrats have spent most of the year railing against the state’s party boss system. As a result, neither party’s primary has focused much on policy. For Democrats, most of the oxygen was consumed by debate over New Jersey’s “county line,” a unique ballot design that gives party leaders unusual influence over elections. For Republicans, what little oxygen is left has been sucked up by Trump.

 

Mike DuHaime, another top GOP strategist and an adviser to the Bashaw campaign, said that to win as a Republican in New Jersey, “It’s difficult to do, but the math is simple. You need to win more than two thirds of independents.”

“You have to be bigger than the national brand, you have to have to be a little bit more local. And if it’s just a typical Democrat versus a typical Republican, you don’t win,” he added.

Bashaw’s first television ad, put out on May 2, gives some sense of his policy positions, heavily criticizing President Joe Biden’s border policy and inflation — both issues that Serrano Glassner also lists on her website.

Serrano Glassner, meanwhile, started airing ads Thursday touting her recent endorsement by Trump and pointing out Bashaw’s past donations to “radical Democrats,” saying he “is no conservative.”

Bashaw had no record of supporting Trump besides having a Trump supporter on his campaign when he launched it in January. Then, in early April, Bashaw suddenly endorsed the former president. Jeanette Hoffman, a spokesperson for Bashaw, called that move a clarification of his position, saying, “[Bashaw] would support [Trump] as an alternative to President Biden, who’s taken the country in the wrong direction on issues ranging from the economy to the border.”

But Bashaw’s campaign is not totally leaning into Trump’s political rhetoric — and part of his strategy is to win over a portion of Biden voters as a “common sense Republican.”

Serrano Glassner, on the other hand, has wholeheartedly embraced Trump — and all of his conspiracies about the 2020 election. Married to former Trump campaign adviser Michael Glassner, she said that the election had “entirely too much suspect and criminal activity that was taking place” during an April 3 online “debate” — which Bashaw backed out of less than a week before. That sparked criticisms from Serrano Glassner that he was “too chicken to debate the only pro-Trump candidate in the U.S. Senate race, just like he’s too chicken to back Trump.”

And in a rally in Wildwood on May 11, Trump rewarded Serrano Glassner’s loyalty with an endorsement. “I was going to stay out of it but you’re running against a Christie person,” he said onstage, likely a reference to Bashaw’s 2016 support of the former New Jersey governor.

Other warning signs for GOP

The last time Menendez was up for reelection in 2018, Republican Bob Hugin raised at least $8 million before the primary. He ultimately raised and spent $39 million — most of it his own — to try defeating the incumbent Democrat who had just beaten corruption charges a year earlier. Menendez spent a third of that and won by 11 points.

But now, with Menendez on trial again and Hugin now leading the state GOP, neither Republican has anywhere close to the money Hugin had and spent in the primary, although that could change after the election.

There are other warning signs that Republicans Bashaw and Serrano Glassner don’t have much of a chance and aren’t trying very hard to take back the Senate seat: Neither candidate has raised even a fraction of what the last Republican nominee for Senate did in 2018, when Menendez was fresh off a mistrial, and one recent poll showed Democratic Rep. Andy Kim up six points when up against each Republican in general election races to replace Menendez.

First quarter campaign filings show Bashaw has a campaign war chest of $1.1 million, while Serrano Glassner has around $400,000. A significant portion of Bashaw’s funding — $600,000 — came from Bashaw himself in campaign loans. Kim, on the other hand, has nearly $7 million in his campaign stash and has proven to be one of the country’s most effective fundraisers since winning election to the House in 2018.

Statewide races in New Jersey are extremely costly due to the need to buy into both New York and Philadelphia media markets — two of the most expensive in the nation. Russell explained that each candidate should be raising “something in excess of a half million dollars in the last three months, and I’d argue that’s probably light, then that’s a problem,” he said prior to the release of the filings.

 

Local support is also crucial in this race, as national organization support tends not to flow into New Jersey for Republicans. The National Republican Senatorial Committee did not spend any money on Senate races in the state in 2018 or 2020, the last time that Sens. Menendez and Cory Booker were up for reelection, respectively. They also aren’t making a bid in the state this year, but are using Menendez’s trial as campaign fodder against other vulnerable senators, like Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey and Montana’s Jon Tester.

And the state party stays out of primaries, except for exceptionally rare cases, Russell said. He added that their neutrality up to now has been “standard” compared to previous primaries.

Neither candidate can expect much national help, either. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is not expected to play in the New Jersey Senate race, instead focusing on incorporating Menendez’s legal problems into a larger narrative against Democrats in Pennsylvania and Montana races.

Bashaw has more organizational support than Serrano Glassner, which typically translates to primary success because of New Jersey’s county line system. Candidates endorsed by county organizations get placed in a row or column, making them appear more legitimate to voters — it can increase a candidate’s share of a primary vote by up to 50 percentage points, according to one study.

Although a federal judge has ruled that system unconstitutional in the Democratic primary — because of a lawsuit brought by Kim — it is still in place for the Republican primary. Bashaw has the endorsement of 14 county parties, twelve of which use the county line, while Serrano Glassner has seven endorsements, six in counties that use the line.

Is the race really competitive?

Despite Bashaw’s advantage in his finances and his local support, polling shows that both he and Serrano Glassner lag significantly behind Kim in a general election. If indicted Menendez enters the race as an independent — which he has said he’ll do if he is “exonerated” by the summer, Kim has a six-point lead over both Republican candidates, while if Menendez stays out, that lead grows to nine points over Bashaw and 10 over Serrano Glassner.

The last time Republicans seemed to have a chance to flip the seat, in 2018, Hugin lost decisively by 12 points. The bigger threat to the seat had actually come earlier that year, in the Democratic primary, when relatively unknown challenger Lisa McCormick won nearly 40 percent of the vote in what was widely seen as a protest against Menendez.

Since then, though, Democrats have increased their registration to a nearly million-voter advantage. And although voters have elected several Republican governors since a GOP Senator served in Washington 52 years ago, it seems unlikely they would break their pattern of keeping that seat blue in the same year Biden and Trump top ballots, Taylor said.

“I have a hard time seeing that a voter would vote for Biden and then, especially given the incredibly slim majority, would vote for a Republican senator,” said Jessica Taylor, the senate and governors editor of the Cook Political Report.

 

 

[Js1 85409]

10 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

but are using Menendez’s trial as campaign fodder against other vulnerable senators, like Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey and Montana’s Jon Tester.

……

So tone deaf when their presidential nominee is in a bunch of different trials 

Edited May 20 by Js1

[LCHorn 2621]

2 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Well what's your issue then?  Is it because he's unknown or he's running the wrong kind of campaign.  I mean, I'd see some advantages to him being an actor or a rock star with instant name recognition, but the Dems don't have the balls to do that.

I just don't see any advantage in him pretending he's a firebrand progressive, because he isn't, and that's not going to be a big advantage over him just being himself.  

Not to be a dick but I answered your question in my post-maybe it’s not in him to copy Beto, but try running as a man of the people, going town to town, speaking to independents and Republicans, run against Washington, etc.  

If you have the charisma it’ll get you publicity.  At this point he’s poised for a trouncing because no one knows who he is and he doesn’t have anything to offer besides his bio.  

The uncomfortable truth is that he’s a lackluster and underbaked candidate in the first place.  The Texas Dems, however, don’t have anyone willing to run that’s clearly better so here we are.  

[GopherRock 1765]

Ladies and gentlemen, the Minnesota Republican Party!

 

On 5/18/2024 at 6:50 PM, Js1 said:

@GopherRock

MN GOP going to pick Royce White to run against Klobuchar??

Did they see what Herschel managed??

 

Amy Klobuchar has been an excellent Senator. It doesn't hurt that her seat has come up in blue wave environments.

2006: Dubya dragging down Republicans across the map. Gets elected despite being on the same ballot that elected Tim Pawlenty to a second term.

2012: This ballot had Obama at the top, and the anti-gay-marriage and Photo ID Required constitutional amendments. Both measures are rejected, with Obama and Klobuchar's blowout wins  

2018: Blue wave. Klobuchar re-elected, Walz elected the first time.

2024: See the above Tweet.

The only time the GOP has sent out a legitimate challenger was 06, with sitting Rep. Mark Kennedy. Otherwise it's been nothing but rotten, ends-blown-out tomato cans.

[Pato del Muerto 52524]

So he was an only child until he wasn’t?  How unique.

[chainsaw 9870]

Allred accepting right wing framing on immigration is stupid.

30 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Ladies and gentlemen, the Minnesota Republican Party!

 

 

Amy Klobuchar has been an excellent Senator. It doesn't hurt that her seat has come up in blue wave environments.

2006: Dubya dragging down Republicans across the map. Gets elected despite being on the same ballot that elected Tim Pawlenty to a second term.

2012: This ballot had Obama at the top, and the anti-gay-marriage and Photo ID Required constitutional amendments. Both measures are rejected, with Obama and Klobuchar's blowout wins  

2018: Blue wave. Klobuchar re-elected, Walz elected the first time.

2024: See the above Tweet.

The only time the GOP has sent out a legitimate challenger was 06, with sitting Rep. Mark Kennedy. Otherwise it's been nothing but rotten, ends-blown-out tomato cans.

Tater salad?

[Sawbonz 27578]

9 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

This could go in the cult thread as well. 

 

He already does that every time he steps up to a podium, except for the pulling his pants down part 

[Biff Tannen 45691]

On 5/19/2024 at 12:19 PM, Pancho said:

 

 

On 5/19/2024 at 2:04 PM, The Dog said:

Trump leads Biden by 5 in that same poll in Arizona.

[YGIFS 19452]

25 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

 

Hey, what if we combined the two polls like ketchup and mustard into one?

Oh, I like that idea very much!  

[atomheartbevo 89729]

Saw the same Colin Allred ads on YouTube tonight.

Starts off with him warning us of the dangers of fentanyl and then he mentions how he challenged Joe Biden over border security and briefly mentioned Cruz.  That was the ad.

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

Edited June 15 by Zonahorn

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

Dems can’t sleep on the senate races. If Trump pulls out a victory, Dems have to keep the senate. If Trump gets his senate, Alito and Thomas will retire and be replaced with 2 similar 45 year olds.

[Js1 85409]

I don’t think they are? Or is this just “Hurr Durr incompetent Dems?”

For having what should be an awful map, Dems are on offense where they need to be and they have Cruz and Scott on their heels. Numerous polling has Brown up 5+ while Trump is up 8+ in Ohio.