2024 Senate Elections

[bluto 4,927]

31 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don’t think they are? Or is this just “Hurr Durr incompetent Dems?”

For having what should be an awful map, Dems are on offense where they need to be and they have Cruz and Scott on their heels. Numerous polling has Brown up 5+ while Trump is up 8+ in Ohio. 

Cruz is in no way ‘on his heels’ and won’t be. 

[Hawndoh 2,386]

Allred's commercials are awful. He's basically a sentient cardboard cutout, with less personality.

Cruz, unfortunately, can do what he wants and still win.

[GopherRock 1,765]

No one is sleeping on the Senate, but this map is absolutely hideous. Defending in Ohio and Montana to hold a 50-50 split? Yuk. The only place to play offense is Florida, and that's because of the abortion referendum maybe having enough coattails to pick off Rick Scott.

Cal Cunningham's inability to keep his pants zipped up has proven to be incredibly costly.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

Two weeks before the election it will come out that Brown has some unpaid parking tickets in Cleveland and it will cost him the suburban soccer mom vote.

9 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Cal Cunningham's inability to keep his pants zipped up has proven to be incredibly costly.

And would not have meant shit if he was the R candidate instead of D.

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

This is a state senate race in Georgia, buts this stuff still matters

 

[Sawbonz 27,548]

2 hours ago, GopherRock said:

No one is sleeping on the Senate, but this map is absolutely hideous. Defending in Ohio and Montana to hold a 50-50 split? Yuk. The only place to play offense is Florida, and that's because of the abortion referendum maybe having enough coattails to pick off Rick Scott.

Cal Cunningham's inability to keep his pants zipped up has proven to be incredibly costly.

Well hopefully lots of people who like to fuck will be out for the abortion vote 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

 

[tx 3 putt 76,933]

Tom cotton is an empty headed dildo …..

 

[YGIFS 19,450]

If you've been playing the "San Francisco Liberal" drinking game this afternoon/evening.  Congrats, you now know what it feels like to have the mental acuity of Eric Trump.  And probably the same facial expression. 

[Gil Bang 25,951]

2 hours ago, YGIFS said:

If you've been playing the "San Francisco Liberal" drinking game this afternoon/evening.  Congrats, you now know what it feels like to have the mental acuity of Eric Trump.  And probably the same facial expression. 

did I need to watch it live to play the game, or can I do it on replay?

[Biff Tannen 45,679]

7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Tom cotton is an empty headed dildo …..

 

One might even say a Cotton-headed Ninny-muggins 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

Yes

[Pancho 44,771]

 

[Biff Tannen 45,679]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

 

[Js1 85,320]

It’ll come down to Tester being #50 + Walz as the tiebreaker or one of FL/TX to offset a loss in Montana + Walz. Brown will win - Ohio is red, but not as red as Montana. 

Ive already said Dems should immediately court Murkowski as an independent who caucuses with the Dems and give her natural resources chair. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,451]

Imagine if Colin Allred and his campaign weren’t so terrible. They raised a shit ton of money, though. 

Edited August 18 by Bozo_Casanova

[Biff Tannen 45,679]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Imagine if Colin Allred and his campaign weren’t so terrible 

Isn’t it pretty to think so?

[Js1 85,320]

DMP is running a much better campaign against Rick Scott, who has won his last 3 statewide elections in Florida by 1.10, 1.07 and 0.13

[Js1 85,320]

So Brown is up like 6-8 

[Pato del Muerto 52,492]

How are senate and potus races so divergent?  I’d say I’m glad people feel informed enough to split their tickets but it’s Trump that is the beneficiary somehow. 

[Js1 85,320]

11 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How are senate and potus races so divergent?  I’d say I’m glad people feel informed enough to split their tickets but it’s Trump that is the beneficiary somehow. 

I mean, Susan Collins won in 2020 while Biden won Maine. Sometimes a senator has a very good brand and is very locked into their state - Manchin also won WV in 2012 when Obama was destroyed there.

When I think of this, I think of Collins, Brown, Tester, Manchin. Even Murkowski, considering she won as a write-in 

Edited August 19 by Js1

[Sawbonz 27,548]

I thought Tester was up in Montana

[Js1 85,320]

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I thought Tester was up in Montana

Mixed bag. Some have him up, some have him down. Literally last weekend had competing polls of Tester +5 and Sheehy +5 released in consecutive days 

[Sawbonz 27,548]

A lot of folks are in Montana because they want to be left the fuck alone. Sheehy seems full bore MAGA. I think Tester wins

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,512]

Definitely odd split ticket polls results right now. Nevada and Ohio like their Dem senators in the polls but lean Trump for president.

if the gop wins, what’s the consensus for majority leader? Thune? 

[Js1 85,320]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Definitely odd split ticket polls results right now. Nevada and Ohio like their Dem senators in the polls but lean Trump for president.

if the gop wins, what’s the consensus for majority leader? Thune? 

Didn’t Rick Scott already try to challenge Turtle? Oh how amazing would it be if they thought they were going to win the Senate and they lose it because Scott loses unexpectedly 

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

John Goodman doing Good things.

 

[swraith 346]

Good ad by Goodman. I’m under the assumption that Hawley still has a lock on that Missouri seat. 

[Js1 85,320]

I'm guessing Turtle has passed around internal polling and it is not good.  Sound the alarms

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4835774-senate-republicans-concerned-trump/

Senate Republicans are worried former President Trump could be blowing their chances of winning back the majority as he flails in his response to Vice President Harris’s surge of momentum, according to GOP aides and strategists.

Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead in Republican-leaning Senate battlegrounds such as Ohio and Florida and pulled ahead in other states where Republicans have a chance of picking up seats, such as Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Ron Bonjean, a GOP strategist and former Senate GOP leadership aide, said Republicans are “running into rougher terrain, because Democrats have a much more viable candidate at the presidential level” in Harris compared to President Biden.

He said Harris’s record gives Republicans opportunities to go on offense over policy differences but warned that Trump has to focus more on policy and less on throwing red meat to his core supporters.

“Trump is trying to get on message. In the last couple of press conferences, he’s started to talk about her policies, but he just can’t help getting the crowd responses by going after her personally. He can’t get away from it. It may get a great reaction from the crowd, but it’s doing nothing for independent voters that are looking for the contrast. They know who Donald Trump is, they’re trying to figure out who Kamala Harris is,” he said.

A Senate Republican aide told The Hill that Senate Republicans aren’t thrilled about the trajectory of Trump’s campaign and worry what it will mean for Senate GOP candidates in key states.

“You can start to feel trepidation. Like with Arizona, you get a sense in talking to folks that it’s not going as well as we hoped. In Nevada, it’s not going as well as we hoped,” the GOP aide said.

The source said “there’s a legitimate gripe” that Trump “is not as aggressive [of a] campaigner as he could be,” referring to the amount of time that Trump is spending on the stump reaching out to voters in key swing states.

Republican lawmakers fear that Trump’s personal attacks on Harris may only backfire with swing voters and put downballot GOP candidates in the awkward position of having to respond to Trump’s inflammatory statements.

“There’s no question Trump is going through self-immolation. He’s killing himself. All swing states are won by independent votes, and he’s alienated the independent vote almost every day with some foolish statement that marginalizes him, and as a result the party — and the majority of independents are educated women, and they’re just turned off by the guy and what he says,” said former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), a onetime adviser to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s (Ky.) leadership team.

[hornmpa96 2,618]

It’s really a shame to see that group of assholes struggling with this. They had a chance to be completely free from Trump after January 6 and lacked the courage. 90% of the R Senators would tell you behind closed doors that Trump has no business being anywhere close to the White House. 
 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,512]

Ohio GOP senate candidate Moreno has earned an estimated $100m in selling off his car dealerships where he proudly states that he started with very little a couple of decades ago. Great story where a guy from Colombia made it big in America. Pulled himself up by his own bootstraps and now wants to lead by serving in the Senate. Maybe not.

As a GOP guy, he has the standard platform. Here are 2 out of his 16 priorities on his website

• 12. Allow free markets to work
• 15. End Wokeness and Cancel Culture

Why did I list these? He received special deals (lower financial requirements, special start up costs and financing) from the car manufacturers because..., well I will let Moreno's deposition speak for itself.  Source

Quote

“[big car companies were] under a lot of pressure to have the dealer body be diverse, be representative of the community. And so I’m certain, at that time, when—they may have been getting pressure to have more diversity among their dealership ranks, have the dealer body be diverse, be representative of the community.”

here is some of the money that he received for being Hispanic. This is from a court case where other dealers (probably non-hispanic, white guys) were upset. 

Quote

To cover the costs, Moreno got a much-needed handout. A centerpiece of the case was a confidential agreement Moreno signed with Infiniti. The manufacturer offered $4.4 million in financial assistance, about $2.4 million of which came in the form of performance incentives but the rest came in guaranteed payouts to defray the cost of rent and—somewhat presciently—delays due to litigation. According to court records, Nissan also gave Moreno $1.25 million in assistance to open a dealership in Akron, $650,000 to open a location in Cleveland, and $3.75 million to open another dealership by that city’s airport.

“Your honor, they keep giving this guy money,” complained John Forehand, an attorney for one of the plaintiffs, South Motors. “They aren’t giving anybody else money.”

Moreno is the epitome of a guy that was offered a ladder and then pulled it up after himself. I don't necessarily care that he received help from private industry. They can do what they want but he's the biggest hypocrite by running as a Trump Republican.  As an aside, he earned the Trump endorsement by spending the most at Trump properties but that's another story.

He also has a weird start in business with an older guy in the car business acting as a mentor. The two later had a falling out while vacationing together.

 

Edited August 23 by Nice Guy Eddie

[quigley 1,563]

On 8/18/2024 at 4:39 PM, Pancho said:

 

 

On 8/18/2024 at 5:56 PM, Js1 said:

It’ll come down to Tester being #50 + Walz as the tiebreaker or one of FL/TX to offset a loss in Montana + Walz. Brown will win - Ohio is red, but not as red as Montana. 

Ive already said Dems should immediately court Murkowski as an independent who caucuses with the Dems and give her natural resources chair. 

 

On 8/18/2024 at 10:29 PM, Sawbonz said:

I thought Tester was up in Montana

 

49 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Moreno is the epitome of a guy that was offered a ladder and then pulled it up after himself.

 

 

There are basically 11 contested senate races this cycle, listed below with the state's partisan lean (Cook, via Wiki). WV is lost so Dem need to win 9 to get to a 50-50 tie.

The Dems are doing really well due to a combination of good candidates and strategy and republican stupidity. They lead in 8 so they need to get one of FL, TX, MT.

        Lean   Comments (average of polls from 538; ++ = quigley donated)
MD    D+14   Former popular Rep vs Dem Alsobrooks; Dem up but limited polling  --> watch out here
NM    D+3    Incumbent Heinrich-D lead is ~ 6 over daughter of former Rep senator --> watch out here
MI    R+1    Slotkin-D up 3-5
NV    R+1    Rosen-D up 5-8, wide poll results in hard to poll state
AZ    R+2    Gallego-D up ~ 6; bad R candidate; ++
PA    R+2    Casey-D up 6-8
WI    R+2    Baldwin-D up ~ 7
FL    R+3    Mucarsel-Powell-D down 4; Rep candidate with tons of $; ++
TX    R+5    Cruz 3-4; ++
OH    R+6    Brown-D up 5-6; ++
MT    R+11   4 of 5 polls Tester-D down; only 1 quality poll, Emerson, Rep +2; ++

Here's why you should focus your attention on Senate races, particularly FL and TX:
1. Harris-Walz will win, but if they don't, we're screwed anyway.
2. Harris has to show results and will need a trifecta to do so. House should be carried to Dems by Harris's coattails.
3. Brown and Tester are great (esp Brown), but they will be last Dem Senators from OH and MT for a while.
4. Nate Silver is an ass, but he's right about small dollar donations not mattering for presidential race funding. I give in big enough chunks that I get calls from actual Senate candidates, and my donations are inconsequential at the presidential level.
5. Dems need to make FL or TX swing blue to have a shot at maintaining Senate control moving forward because WV, MT and OH seats will disappear at some point (2 may be gone in November). Plus, if either FL or TX go blue, republican path 270 at any point become super hard.
6. I've donated the most to Mucarsel-Powell this year because I have great personal antipathy to Rick Scott and because I think, with abortion on the ballot, she *should* have a better path to victory. Many of you live in or have deep connections to TX, and Cruz is an easy villain also so please go after him too.

[Js1 85,320]

24 minutes ago, quigley said:

MD    D+14   Former popular Rep vs Dem Alsobrooks; Dem up but limited polling  --> watch out here
NM    D+3    Incumbent Heinrich-D lead is ~ 6 over daughter of former Rep senator --> watch out here

MD is not going to be one to watch.  You can ask Steve Bullock, Linda Lingle, Phil Bredesen, etc. about being elected statewide as an opposite party governor and then finding out what happens when you run for Senate (hint: you lose).  Statewide races are so different from national races; do you really think Andy Beshear or Laura Kelly would win a Senate race in KY or KS? Jon Bel Edwards won LA twice - he'd get killed in a LA Senate race. Unfortunately, voters are dumb enough to pick really good people to run their state, but when it comes time to run for Senate, they revert back to their presidential lean most of the time (Brown, Tester, Manchin, Ron Johnson, Susan Collins being big time outliers)

Just had a NM poll by Emerson of Heinrich up 12, fyi. 

Edited August 23 by Js1

[quigley 1,563]

24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

MD is not going to be one to watch.  You can ask Steve Bullock, Linda Lingle, Phil Bredesen, etc. about being elected statewide as an opposite party governor and then finding out what happens when you run for Senate (hint: you lose).  Statewide races are so different from national races; do you really think Andy Beshear or Laura Kelly would win a Senate race in KY or KS? Jon Bel Edwards won LA twice - he'd get killed in a LA Senate race. Unfortunately, voters are dumb enough to pick really good people to run their state, but when it comes time to run for Senate, they revert back to their presidential lean most of the time (Brown, Tester, Manchin, Ron Johnson, Susan Collins being big time outliers)

Just had a NM poll by Emerson of Heinrich up 12, fyi. 

 

When looking at polls, I drop top/bottom and average others.

Republicans viewed MD and NM as targets.

If the MD race is not competitive, it is a testament to Alsobrooks and Wes Moore. Alsobrooks won, I would say in an upset, a primary against a rich white centerist Dem congressman from the largest county in the state (Trone). He got funding from outside and used his own money. As a minority woman from a poor county who had less money, Alsobrooks beat him.

Hogan was a great get for Reps. Hogan remains very popular and is well-funded. Hogan vs Trone would have been Hogan vs worse Hogan. Alsobrooks still has less name-ID than Hogan, but she's out running and winning.

Edited August 23 by quigley
clarity

[bluto 4,927]

On 8/20/2024 at 11:15 AM, hornmpa96 said:

It’s really a shame to see that group of assholes struggling with this. They had a chance to be completely free from Trump after January 6 and lacked the courage. 90% of the R Senators would tell you behind closed doors that Trump has no business being anywhere close to the White House. 
 

The really amazing thing to me is the gop has had at least a half dozen EASY off ramps from maga over the last 4 yrs. Talking no brainers especially with his meddling in the mid term destruction. And yet they persist, bc they have to  

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[quigley 1,563]

20 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

trump: rearviewmirror

[gmr548 16,576]

9 hours ago, bluto said:

The really amazing thing to me is the gop has had at least a half dozen EASY off ramps from maga over the last 4 yrs. Talking no brainers especially with his meddling in the mid term destruction. And yet they persist, bc they want to  

FIFY

[Dnaguy 11,951]

On 7/23/2024 at 4:22 PM, tx 3 putt said:

Tom cotton is an empty headed dildo …..

 

Are all republicans a rotting corpse made to wander the earth as a condition of their deal with the devil for power and influence.?

[bolverk 29,671]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/us/politics/tim-sheehy-native-americans-montana.html

https://archive.is/O53rU

Tim Sheehy, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Montana, made comments perpetuating racist stereotypes about Native Americans during private fund-raisers last year, according to recordings of the events published by a local news outlet late last week and obtained by The New York Times.

In one recording, Mr. Sheehy, a cattle rancher and businessman, can be heard saying that he had participated in roping and branding cattle on the Crow Reservation, in southeastern Montana, and that it was “a great way to bond with all the Indians out there, while they’re drunk at 8 a.m.” In another clip, he said that he had ridden in a Crow parade, and that “they’ll let you know whether they like you or not, there’s Coors Light cans flying by your head.”

By making these remarks, Mr. Sheehy not only used stereotypes, but he also waded into the complex history of Native American tribal dynamics in Montana, where Indigenous residents make up about 6 percent of the population. The state has seven reservations and 12 tribes.

Native Americans say that they have long been forgotten in political discussions and that basic needs on reservations, including water, electricity and health care, have been ignored by leaders of both major political parties.

In Montana, some Native Americans said they were appalled but not surprised by Mr. Sheehy’s comments, first reported by The Char-Koosta News, which covers the Flathead Indian reservation in the northwestern part of the state.

Calvin Lime, who lives on the Blackfeet reservation in northern Montana, said the remarks were a “slap in the face,” and especially unfortunate because the Crow Tribe was one of the most outspokenly pro-Trump tribes. (Mr. Sheehy received the endorsement of former President Donald J. Trump in the Republican primary.)

“For them to bring him there, work with him, they’re happy, they’re promoting him, but behind closed doors they’re the drunken Indian,” Mr. Lime said. “Behind closed doors, you’re actually getting looked at as a lesser-than.”

A spokeswoman for Mr. Sheehy’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment. A spokeswoman for Senator Jon Tester, the Democratic incumbent locked in a tight race with Mr. Sheehy, declined to comment.

Native Americans in Montana have been a key voting bloc for Mr. Tester, who is in his third term, but local Native American leaders say that Democrats cannot take their votes for granted. Some suggested that Montana Republicans like Representative Ryan Zinke had made progress in improving the perception of Republicans among the state’s tribes, but Mr. Sheehy’s comments may have jeopardized that, said Alexandra Lin, a former member of the Montana Democratic Party who is Indigenous.

“Representative Zinke and Senator Daines have begun to understand these really important demographic groups and have been investing in them,” Ms. Lin said, referring to Steve Daines, the state’s Republican senator, “and it’s surprising that Sheehy is not doing this.”

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

57 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Calvin Lime, who lives on the Blackfeet reservation in northern Montana, said the remarks were a “slap in the face,” and especially unfortunate because the Crow Tribe was one of the most outspokenly pro-Trump tribes. (

[bolverk 29,671]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

That line threw me for a loop too, like "wut?"

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,512]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/us/politics/tim-sheehy-native-americans-montana.html

https://archive.is/O53rU

Tim Sheehy, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Montana, made comments perpetuating racist stereotypes about Native Americans during private fund-raisers last year, according to recordings of the events published by a local news outlet late last week and obtained by The New York Times.

In one recording, Mr. Sheehy, a cattle rancher and businessman, can be heard saying that he had participated in roping and branding cattle on the Crow Reservation, in southeastern Montana, and that it was “a great way to bond with all the Indians out there, while they’re drunk at 8 a.m.” In another clip, he said that he had ridden in a Crow parade, and that “they’ll let you know whether they like you or not, there’s Coors Light cans flying by your head.”

By making these remarks, Mr. Sheehy not only used stereotypes, but he also waded into the complex history of Native American tribal dynamics in Montana, where Indigenous residents make up about 6 percent of the population. The state has seven reservations and 12 tribes.

Native Americans say that they have long been forgotten in political discussions and that basic needs on reservations, including water, electricity and health care, have been ignored by leaders of both major political parties.

In Montana, some Native Americans said they were appalled but not surprised by Mr. Sheehy’s comments, first reported by The Char-Koosta News, which covers the Flathead Indian reservation in the northwestern part of the state.

Calvin Lime, who lives on the Blackfeet reservation in northern Montana, said the remarks were a “slap in the face,” and especially unfortunate because the Crow Tribe was one of the most outspokenly pro-Trump tribes. (Mr. Sheehy received the endorsement of former President Donald J. Trump in the Republican primary.)

“For them to bring him there, work with him, they’re happy, they’re promoting him, but behind closed doors they’re the drunken Indian,” Mr. Lime said. “Behind closed doors, you’re actually getting looked at as a lesser-than.”

A spokeswoman for Mr. Sheehy’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment. A spokeswoman for Senator Jon Tester, the Democratic incumbent locked in a tight race with Mr. Sheehy, declined to comment.

Native Americans in Montana have been a key voting bloc for Mr. Tester, who is in his third term, but local Native American leaders say that Democrats cannot take their votes for granted. Some suggested that Montana Republicans like Representative Ryan Zinke had made progress in improving the perception of Republicans among the state’s tribes, but Mr. Sheehy’s comments may have jeopardized that, said Alexandra Lin, a former member of the Montana Democratic Party who is Indigenous.

“Representative Zinke and Senator Daines have begun to understand these really important demographic groups and have been investing in them,” Ms. Lin said, referring to Steve Daines, the state’s Republican senator, “and it’s surprising that Sheehy is not doing this.”

The GOP loves themselves former Navy SEALs. By just seeing that Sheehy is ~40 and looks to be in decent shape, I knew that he was selected as a candidate because he was a former Navy SEAL. A quick google validated that though.

They look to create the image and then find the guy, who fits that image, to get the spot. 2024's Brady Bunch Johnny Bravo .

[Js1 85,320]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The GOP loves themselves former Navy SEALs. By just seeing that Sheehy is ~40 and looks to be in decent shape, I knew that he was selected as a candidate because he was a former Navy SEAL. A quick google validated that though.

They look to create the image and then find the guy, who fits that image, to get the spot. 2024's Brady Bunch Johnny Bravo .

He’s also loaded. $150m or so. Looks and bank account 

[swraith 346]

I had to go down the rabbit hole to understand how a Navy Seal gets to $150 million.  

 

Bridger Aerospace - Wikipedia

 

Of course he operated a company, whose revenue is tied to government contracts, which went public via a SPAC, and the company has been consistently unprofitable.  

[Js1 85,320]

Crystal Ball -

AZ/NV/WI/MI/PA all Lean Dem
MT/OH are the only toss-ups
TX/FL still likely R

Montana - Sheehy is likely ahead, but not by much.  Weird state because of small population retail politics and no high-quality poll because it is not a swing state
Ohio - the more toss-up-y state, but Brown is leading in all the public polls, but it depends on how much ticket-splitting (Brown won by 7 in 2018 while statewide Reps won by 3-6; Ryan lost by 6 in 2022 while statewide Reps won by 18+) 

Sleeper races - Texas is more likelier than Florida because Cruz is a lightning rod of hate and Scott is a self-funder who has lived winning close races, plus the influx of conservative retirees into the state.  They are skeptical of Maryland being competitive - so many examples of a cross-party popular governor looking super good and then losing badly in the Senate race (MT, TN, IN, HI, etc.) - no reason yet to move it to competitive.

Nebraska is kind of worth a watch, as Fischer is running against an independent (no Dem) and there's been some polling showing it a tied race.  Nebraska, like Maryland (and Montana), are deeply uncompetitive states at the presidential level and likely will revert to their partisan leans. 

 

[David Dennison 18,856]

 

[Burt 4,080]

I hate it, but Tester is done. And then every statewide seat will be controlled by out-of-state millionaires.

Edited September 9 by Burt

[BamaATL 16,593]

11 hours ago, Burt said:

I hate it, but Tester is done. And then every statewide seat will be controlled by out-of-state millionaires.

That's been said many times before for Tester.  

[Js1 85,320]

38 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

That's been said many times before for Tester.  

Montana is

A) Super rural, so hard to poll - especially Native populations. 

B) Super rural and small population, so retail politics do a lot of heavy lifting.  Doesn't take much to change the outcome. 

C) Jon Tester is no stranger to close races - 0.9 in 2006, 3.7 in 2012 (Libertarian got 6.6) while Obama lost the state by 14 points and 3.5 in 2018

Tester was down 49-45 in polling as late as October 31, 2012 and Sabato's Crystal Ball had it Lean R.  Hell, he was down 49-46 in a poll as late as November 2-4, 2018.