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2024 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

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Js1

Js1 85270

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49 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Gets me thinking if Allred would have had a better chance running as I instead of D. It's much different since TDP sort of does its own thing and the primary process feels like it matters for fundraising and momentum. In smaller states you don't need as much of a party apparatus to get your name out there.

I have been saying this for a while - there are some states that being labeled a Dem hurts, so running as a indie might be a good move.  Allred is trying to run as one, but he has that (D) after his name that will hurt him. 

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HenryJames
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Horn Under a Bad Sign
Horn Under a Bad Sign

This is a brilliant political commercial.          

cactusflinthead
cactusflinthead

This applies here too.  

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Js1

Js1 85270

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Posted
36 minutes ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

Are y'all suggesting he run as a third party independent? Why? That would split the non-MAGA vote and hand the election to Cruz. 

No, a Dem wouldn’t run and you’d just have R vs indie. 

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Js1

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Just now, HornOnTheBayou said:

How are you going to convince the TDP to sit on the sideline and not nominate a candidate? I mean I know they haven't done jackshit for 30 years, but they at least put a name on the ballot each election.

It happens though, Nebraska Dems didn’t nominate anyone this year and Osborn is running a close race against Fischer. Alaska Dems did not run anyone in 2020 and Al Gross only lost by 12 (with a third independent on the ballot)

Utah Dems didn’t run anyone in 2022 Senate and McMullin only lost by 10.5

There is some precedent for doing it. But it requires the state Dems to sit out with the agreement to fully support the indie candidate, but not tie them to the party 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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Posted
It happens though, Nebraska Dems didn’t nominate anyone this year and Osborn is running a close race against Fischer. Alaska Dems did not run anyone in 2020 and Al Gross only lost by 12 (with a third independent on the ballot)
Utah Dems didn’t run anyone in 2022 Senate and McMullin only lost by 10.5
There is some precedent for doing it. But it requires the state Dems to sit out with the agreement to fully support the indie candidate, but not tie them to the party 

And frankly, there aren’t a lot of up and coming Dems that are itching to get hammered in a statewide race. In 2020, none of the three primary candidates had previously held elected office. This year, there are actually two Senate races and the Dems put up Preston Love against billionaire asshole Pete Ricketts. Preston is a local civil rights activist; good guy, he takes high schoolers to the Deep South on civil rights history tours. But he knows he has no shot. It’s not a race worth even mentioning. It’s hard to even find information on it. At best, it’s a race that helps with Gotv in North Omaha. At worst, it drives Republicans to the polls. So, it’s pretty easy for Dems in Nebraska to concede the race and hope an Independent fills the void. I think in Texas, the right candidate has a shot against Cruz. So recruiting a Dem isn’t as hard.
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chainsaw

chainsaw 9857

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2 hours ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

How are you going to convince the TDP to sit on the sideline and not nominate a candidate?

Show them how all the money they've ever spent on these races has yielded like a 40+ year losing streak?

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Js1

Js1 85270

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Internal memo from the Senate Leadership Fund (GOP Senate main PAC)

Internally, they have Cruz up 1 and Allred gaining, Nebraska is a serious trouble spot, Sheehy up 4 in Montana and every other challenger down, including Moreno down 6 in Ohi

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Internal memo from the Senate Leadership Fund (GOP Senate main PAC)

Internally, they have Cruz up 1 and Allred gaining, Nebraska is a serious trouble spot, Sheehy up 4 in Montana and every other challenger down, including Moreno down 6 in Ohi

That means 50R/49D/1I - assuming Allred or Tester doesn't pull it out, correct? 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19187

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On 10/11/2024 at 3:35 PM, Js1 said:

It happens though, Nebraska Dems didn’t nominate anyone this year and Osborn is running a close race against Fischer. Alaska Dems did not run anyone in 2020 and Al Gross only lost by 12 (with a third independent on the ballot)

Utah Dems didn’t run anyone in 2022 Senate and McMullin only lost by 10.5

There is some precedent for doing it. But it requires the state Dems to sit out with the agreement to fully support the indie candidate, but not tie them to the party 

Sounds like a real bang-up strategy.

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Js1

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4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Sounds like a real bang-up strategy.

Tell me you know nothing about Alaska and Utah without telling me you know nothing about Alaska and Utah.

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11133

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Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Sad that Cruz has been in politics for his entire life and been a US Senator for 12 years but his only issue is preventing schools from random transgender surgery on your kids during homeroom hour.

He should list all his accomplishments, I'm sure it would fit in a 15 second ad spot. 

Supposedly Kim Ogg is supporting him for sponsoring a bill to keep violent illegals locked up when arrested, but they never name the bill or give any other info on it. I guess they don't want people to look up the specifics and see that it's already an option for judges regardless of someone citizenship. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89625

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I view Texags politics board occasionally and they are bitching about allred a lot.  Mainly seeing his ads so much.  He is blanketing the airwaves better than any Texas democrat I’ve ever seen.

4 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

There were some really shitty Ted Cruz ads during the RRSO. As a New Yorker, I definitely do not want to see those.

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Sad that Cruz has been in politics for his entire life and been a US Senator for 12 years but his only issue is preventing schools from random transgender surgery on your kids during homeroom hour.

Allred actually dropped an ad last night or sometime yesterday addressing Cruz’s recent ads, and he was  repeatedly calling Cruz a liar, about Cruz’s ads claiming Allred wanted boys in girls sports, etc.

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Js1

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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I see Allred falling short unless Harris can get Texas to Trump taking 51% or less. The GOP could generate a fake candidate from ChatGPT and easily win Texas but instead they continue to nominate the most hated man in Texas.

The GOP Senate PAC has him running 2 points behind Trump and Allred is running 2 points ahead of Harris in their polling (and internal polling is always going to be a little more rosy for the party that's sponsoring it). They have Cruz +1 in favorability and Allred +12. 

Internal poling is supposed to be extremely optimistic.  Allred is doing a good job of separating himself from Harris to run ahead of her by 2 points.  And Cruz is so despised, he runs behind the top of the ticket when he's up for re-election.  

It's a recipe for a huge surprise if polling is off by even a fraction in favor of Harris/Democrats. 

This polling (from the GOP) does not jive with the state polling in the presidential race, that's for sure. 

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Jive Turkey

Jive Turkey 12594

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Harris is going to be huge for Allred.  County, that is.  Allred is a known commodity in Dallas.  Not sure how he's playing in Houston, but if he can destroy the numbers in H-Town . . . don't give me hope.  The fact that Ogg is so despised in Houston but supporting Cruz in those annoying commercials may actually help Allred.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22694

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

Harris is going to be huge for Allred.  County, that is.  Allred is a known commodity in Dallas.  Not sure how he's playing in Houston, but if he can destroy the numbers in H-Town . . . don't give me hope.  The fact that Ogg is so despised in Houston but supporting Cruz in those annoying commercials may actually help Allred.

Don't know if anyone else made the connection, but the two types of local ads for Republicans I've seen are:

1) "DEMOCRATS ARE SOFT ON CRIME AND THE CAUSE OF ALL YOUR PROBLEMS IN HARRIS COUNTY" and

2) "I'm a Democrat and the top law enforcement officer in Harris County and I endorse Ted Cruz"

It made me chuckle that nothing matters any more.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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Satchel

Satchel 6925

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1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Don't know if anyone else made the connection, but the two types of local ads for Republicans I've seen are:

1) "DEMOCRATS ARE SOFT ON CRIME AND THE CAUSE OF ALL YOUR PROBLEMS IN HARRIS COUNTY" and

2) "I'm a Democrat and the top law enforcement officer in Harris County and I endorse Ted Cruz"

It made me chuckle that nothing matters any more.

I wonder if going to work is at all uncomfortable for the DA.

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kevwun

kevwun 15759

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Posted (edited)

No, it's a legless Vietnam vet who says that Allred supports transgender surgery for kids in the military.  He looks like they pulled him out of a nursing home to film the commercial. 

Edited by kevwun
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High Plains Drifter

High Plains Drifter 11026

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On 10/14/2024 at 10:41 AM, Dutchrudder said:

He should list all his accomplishments, I'm sure it would fit in a 15 second ad spot. 

Supposedly Kim Ogg is supporting him for sponsoring a bill to keep violent illegals locked up when arrested, but they never name the bill or give any other info on it. I guess they don't want people to look up the specifics and see that it's already an option for judges regardless of someone citizenship. 

 

Allred voted for it. Hugely bipartisan. 

Assuming the bill actually exists. 

 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11916

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On 10/14/2024 at 10:51 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I see Allred falling short unless Harris can get Texas to Trump taking 51% or less. The GOP could generate a fake candidate from ChatGPT and easily win Texas but instead they continue to nominate the most hated man in Texas.

Candidate Name: James “Jim” Richards

Background:
James “Jim” Richards is a fifth-generation Texan from Midland who grew up working on his family’s cattle ranch. He’s a former oilfield worker turned Marine Corps officer and the founder of a successful oil services company operating across the Permian Basin. Known for his unapologetic, tough-talking style, Jim has built a reputation as a rugged, straight-shooting conservative. However, his campaign is marred by several flaws that could hinder his chances of winning the Senate seat.

Flaws:

    1.    Past Business Controversies
    •    Jim’s oil services company has faced multiple allegations of safety violations and environmental issues, including spills and accidents that resulted in fines from state regulators. While he has defended the company’s record as being within industry norms, these incidents have raised questions about his commitment to environmental safety and worker protections.
    •    There have also been accusations that his company underpaid workers or failed to provide adequate benefits, which opponents have used to paint him as out of touch with working-class Texans.
    2.    Hot-Headed and Controversial Statements
    •    Jim has a history of making inflammatory comments during interviews and on social media, often doubling down rather than apologizing. For instance, he once referred to climate change activists as “eco-terrorists” and suggested that anyone opposing fossil fuels should “go live without electricity and see how long they last.”
    •    His brash style appeals to some voters, but it risks alienating moderates and independents who may see him as lacking the temperament for a Senate role. This has led to several high-profile arguments with journalists and political opponents.
    3.    Limited Policy Knowledge Outside of Energy
    •    While Jim is knowledgeable about the oil industry and military affairs, he has struggled to articulate detailed positions on issues like healthcare, education, or criminal justice reform. During debates, he has often resorted to general conservative talking points, avoiding specifics when pressed on these topics.
    •    Critics argue that he lacks the policy depth needed to effectively legislate on complex issues beyond his core areas of expertise, casting doubt on his readiness for a national leadership role.
    4.    Alienation of Key Republican Groups
    •    His no-compromise stance on several issues has caused friction within the party. For example, he strongly opposes any form of immigration reform that doesn’t prioritize border security first, including paths to citizenship for DACA recipients, which has put him at odds with more moderate Republicans.
    •    Additionally, his approach to social issues is seen as too hardline by some. His uncompromising pro-life stance, even in cases of rape or incest, and his opposition to exceptions for abortions involving severe fetal abnormalities have created unease among suburban women voters and some swing voters within the party.

Jim Richards presents himself as a tough, principled candidate who won’t back down. However, his business history, combative style, limited policy depth, and alienation of key voting blocs create vulnerabilities that opponents will likely exploit. Whether his outsider status and blunt approach will resonate with enough Texans to overcome these flaws remains uncertain.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19413

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3 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

Candidate Name: James “Jim” Richards

Background:
James “Jim” Richards is a fifth-generation Texan from Midland who grew up working on his family’s cattle ranch. He’s a former oilfield worker turned Marine Corps officer and the founder of a successful oil services company operating across the Permian Basin. Known for his unapologetic, tough-talking style, Jim has built a reputation as a rugged, straight-shooting conservative. However, his campaign is marred by several flaws that could hinder his chances of winning the Senate seat.

Flaws:

    1.    Past Business Controversies
    •    Jim’s oil services company has faced multiple allegations of safety violations and environmental issues, including spills and accidents that resulted in fines from state regulators. While he has defended the company’s record as being within industry norms, these incidents have raised questions about his commitment to environmental safety and worker protections.
    •    There have also been accusations that his company underpaid workers or failed to provide adequate benefits, which opponents have used to paint him as out of touch with working-class Texans.
    2.    Hot-Headed and Controversial Statements
    •    Jim has a history of making inflammatory comments during interviews and on social media, often doubling down rather than apologizing. For instance, he once referred to climate change activists as “eco-terrorists” and suggested that anyone opposing fossil fuels should “go live without electricity and see how long they last.”
    •    His brash style appeals to some voters, but it risks alienating moderates and independents who may see him as lacking the temperament for a Senate role. This has led to several high-profile arguments with journalists and political opponents.
    3.    Limited Policy Knowledge Outside of Energy
    •    While Jim is knowledgeable about the oil industry and military affairs, he has struggled to articulate detailed positions on issues like healthcare, education, or criminal justice reform. During debates, he has often resorted to general conservative talking points, avoiding specifics when pressed on these topics.
    •    Critics argue that he lacks the policy depth needed to effectively legislate on complex issues beyond his core areas of expertise, casting doubt on his readiness for a national leadership role.
    4.    Alienation of Key Republican Groups
    •    His no-compromise stance on several issues has caused friction within the party. For example, he strongly opposes any form of immigration reform that doesn’t prioritize border security first, including paths to citizenship for DACA recipients, which has put him at odds with more moderate Republicans.
    •    Additionally, his approach to social issues is seen as too hardline by some. His uncompromising pro-life stance, even in cases of rape or incest, and his opposition to exceptions for abortions involving severe fetal abnormalities have created unease among suburban women voters and some swing voters within the party.

Jim Richards presents himself as a tough, principled candidate who won’t back down. However, his business history, combative style, limited policy depth, and alienation of key voting blocs create vulnerabilities that opponents will likely exploit. Whether his outsider status and blunt approach will resonate with enough Texans to overcome these flaws remains uncertain.

In my mind he looks just like Catturd. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13508

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13 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

Candidate Name: James “Jim” Richards

Background:
James “Jim” Richards is a fifth-generation Texan from Midland who grew up working on his family’s cattle ranch. He’s a former oilfield worker turned Marine Corps officer and the founder of a successful oil services company operating across the Permian Basin. Known for his unapologetic, tough-talking style, Jim has built a reputation as a rugged, straight-shooting conservative. However, his campaign is marred by several flaws that could hinder his chances of winning the Senate seat.

Flaws:

    1.    Past Business Controversies
    •    Jim’s oil services company has faced multiple allegations of safety violations and environmental issues, including spills and accidents that resulted in fines from state regulators. While he has defended the company’s record as being within industry norms, these incidents have raised questions about his commitment to environmental safety and worker protections.
    •    There have also been accusations that his company underpaid workers or failed to provide adequate benefits, which opponents have used to paint him as out of touch with working-class Texans.
    2.    Hot-Headed and Controversial Statements
    •    Jim has a history of making inflammatory comments during interviews and on social media, often doubling down rather than apologizing. For instance, he once referred to climate change activists as “eco-terrorists” and suggested that anyone opposing fossil fuels should “go live without electricity and see how long they last.”
    •    His brash style appeals to some voters, but it risks alienating moderates and independents who may see him as lacking the temperament for a Senate role. This has led to several high-profile arguments with journalists and political opponents.
    3.    Limited Policy Knowledge Outside of Energy
    •    While Jim is knowledgeable about the oil industry and military affairs, he has struggled to articulate detailed positions on issues like healthcare, education, or criminal justice reform. During debates, he has often resorted to general conservative talking points, avoiding specifics when pressed on these topics.
    •    Critics argue that he lacks the policy depth needed to effectively legislate on complex issues beyond his core areas of expertise, casting doubt on his readiness for a national leadership role.
    4.    Alienation of Key Republican Groups
    •    His no-compromise stance on several issues has caused friction within the party. For example, he strongly opposes any form of immigration reform that doesn’t prioritize border security first, including paths to citizenship for DACA recipients, which has put him at odds with more moderate Republicans.
    •    Additionally, his approach to social issues is seen as too hardline by some. His uncompromising pro-life stance, even in cases of rape or incest, and his opposition to exceptions for abortions involving severe fetal abnormalities have created unease among suburban women voters and some swing voters within the party.

Jim Richards presents himself as a tough, principled candidate who won’t back down. However, his business history, combative style, limited policy depth, and alienation of key voting blocs create vulnerabilities that opponents will likely exploit. Whether his outsider status and blunt approach will resonate with enough Texans to overcome these flaws remains uncertain.

You failed to mention that Jim is supported by his recent bride who coincidentally was his secretary before his divorce. They found love AFTER his divorce was finalized.

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Js1

Js1 85270

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Posted
Just now, gmr548 said:

Don't hold your breath.

This.  Would take a miracle - either Dems clean sweep the non-TX/FL/NE races or everyone but Tester has to hold their races and one of DMP/Allred has to win.  Or Osborn wins and he caucuses with the Dems.

And of course, Harris has to win so Walz can be the tiebreaker for a 50/50 Dem Senate.

BUT - it wouldn't be the first time the GOP completely fucked up a winnable map.  Or the second.  Not even the third! 

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