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2024 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

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dieucla98

dieucla98 2942

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No one on the Dem side lacking for money 

IMG_2914.thumb.jpeg.6036783a92e4d3fdeb30f4bc15bb8aeb.jpeg

Who gives a $7M loan to a Senate candidate? That feels... pointless? Unless it's some workaround that a loan you never repay gets counted differently (or secretly) than a campaign contribution?

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HenryJames
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Horn Under a Bad Sign
Horn Under a Bad Sign

This is a brilliant political commercial.          

cactusflinthead
cactusflinthead

This applies here too.  

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Js1

Js1 85258

Posted
Posted
Just now, dieucla98 said:

Who gives a $7M loan to a Senate candidate? That feels... pointless? Unless it's some workaround that a loan you never repay gets counted differently (or secretly) than a campaign contribution?

Hovde is worth $200 million.  That's nothing that he can't pay himself back from campaign funds.  And you know he will

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48051

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Who gives a $7M loan to a Senate candidate? That feels... pointless? Unless it's some workaround that a loan you never repay gets counted differently (or secretly) than a campaign contribution?

 

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Hovde is worth $200 million.  That's nothing that he can't pay himself back from campaign funds.  And you know he will

If he loans his campaign money he can pay himself interest on his own loan. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52484

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Hovde is worth $200 million.  That's nothing that he can't pay himself back from campaign funds.  And you know he will

But he has to pay himself back from the 11.7 million or future donations, right?  Making it really 4.7. 
 

Wonder if the loan gimmick works with small donors.  Next solicitation text should have a reply with an offer to loan $50. 

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Js1

Js1 85258

Posted
Posted
Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

But he has to pay himself back from the 11.7 million or future donations, right?  Making it really 4.7. 
 

Wonder if the loan gimmick works with small donors.  Next solicitation text should have a reply with an offer to loan $50. 

 

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

 

If he loans his campaign money he can pay himself interest on his own loan. 

I know the FEC changed the rules on loan repayment because of Fled Cruz.  But I'm not smart enough to figure it out. 

But yes, Hovde raised $4.7m from donors and $7m from himself

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

Posted
Posted
But he has to pay himself back from the 11.7 million or future donations, right?  Making it really 4.7. 
 
Wonder if the loan gimmick works with small donors.  Next solicitation text should have a reply with an offer to loan $50. 

If he wins, future donations. If he loses, it’s a loss. Also, there is a lot of fundraising that happens in the last 2-4 weeks that is difficult to effectively use. Loaning yourself the money helps utilize the expected funds. So, his loan may be less by Election Day.
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Gap03

Gap03 3303

Posted
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12 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Balloon popped

So what exactly do we expect to be included here?  Just normal spousal "he said, she said" that the GOP is going to try to flood the airwaves with?  

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Js1

Js1 85258

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3 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

So what exactly do we expect to be included here?  Just normal spousal "he said, she said" that the GOP is going to try to flood the airwaves with?  

Desperate ass shit. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4619

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Dems best realistic hope other than a Tester miracle is Osborn winning NE; I don’t think he’ll caucus with the Dems but he will vote patriotically when it counts; he’d certainly vote to raise minimum wage and any other pro-union issue.

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Js1

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19 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Dems best realistic hope other than a Tester miracle is Osborn winning NE; I don’t think he’ll caucus with the Dems but he will vote patriotically when it counts; he’d certainly vote to raise minimum wage and any other pro-union issue.

His entire platform mostly aligns with Dems and he'd be the most powerful Senator - 

The issue is he has to caucus with someone if he wants committee assignments - if it is 50/49 in favor of the GOP and Harris/Walz wins, he pragmatically should caucus with the Dems if he plans on anything he wants (minimum wage, PRO Act, etc.) having a chance to pass.  He'd be a huge pain in the ass for anything besides pro-labor issues, but so was Manchin. 

Because none of those things are coming up for a vote under a GOP Senate.  Period. 

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Js1

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2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I could see that the Dems best hopes at partial control of the Senate rest with Lisa Murkowski not agreeing with MAGA bs. I always want to believe that she's a Dem at heart but not enough to flip to a Dem.

She did endorse Peltola for the AK-AL house race.

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2612

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On 10/16/2024 at 4:28 PM, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

That Sheehy guy is a total cunt, entirely unlikeable, not to mention a weird liar and outsider. The fuck. 

I have my own personal thing with Navy SEALs (we were in the same AO in Iraq and they were total glory whores and unfortunately had the command pull to get mission priority) but it seems like the bulk of their veterans who have run for office are kind of shit bags.  Sheehy, Greitens, Crenshaw, Van Orden. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2612

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On 10/17/2024 at 11:02 AM, Snake Diggity said:

; he’d certainly vote to raise minimum wage and any other pro-union issue.

I’ve been thinking about what a post Harris win Democratic Party focuses on, particularly if the goal is to pull back in men, and I think they need to go very strong into pro-labor, strengthen unions, etc., even if it makes the Wall Street donor class queasy.  You can build into the longtime Republican derived plans like job re-training, apprenticeships, lowering or eliminating professional licensing requirements.  A lot of these aren’t federal but the party needs to promote the vision.   
 

They’ve got to figure out a message that appeals outside of urban and educated population centers.  

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4619

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1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

I’ve been thinking about what a post Harris win Democratic Party focuses on, particularly if the goal is to pull back in men, and I think they need to go very strong into pro-labor, strengthen unions, etc., even if it makes the Wall Street donor class queasy.  You can build into the longtime Republican derived plans like job re-training, apprenticeships, lowering or eliminating professional licensing requirements.  A lot of these aren’t federal but the party needs to promote the vision.   
 

They’ve got to figure out a message that appeals outside of urban and educated population centers.  

Yep, Unions and rural farmers seem like who they should focus on.  Secondary to that they’ve got to figure out to properly message their stance on gender equality and gun control.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21139

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Cook Political has moved Nebraska Senate to Lean R

Where we at with the close races overall?  I'll try the googles but a solid majority in the Senate is another blue wall we all need to be pushing/talking about.  We know Trump has been a black hole for many Congressional R candidates...here's hoping it leads to a massive Democratic majority.  I know that's a pipedream to some but I think it's realistic with all the forces at play.  

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13507

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Sheehy, gop challenger in Montana, has claimed that he was shot in Afghanistan. Now there are reports that he accidentally discharged a gun in glacier national park in 2015 and was treated for a gunshot wound in the ER. Backed up by a park ranger who wrote a ticket and was at the ER.  Sheehy’s campaign refuses to address.

Quote

The ranger, Kim Peach, told The New York Times in an interview: “I am 100 percent sure he shot himself that day,” referring to the October 2015 incident that he responded to in Glacier.

if this is a bs story, I would think that a vet would be quick to defend himself with his ER and military records.

do I think this info was purposefully brought up this late? Probably but that’s the nature of politics to use information when it suits your purpose.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4619

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Posted
On 10/21/2024 at 6:29 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Where we at with the close races overall?  I'll try the googles but a solid majority in the Senate is another blue wall we all need to be pushing/talking about.  We know Trump has been a black hole for many Congressional R candidates...here's hoping it leads to a massive Democratic majority.  I know that's a pipedream to some but I think it's realistic with all the forces at play.  

Dems have a slight lead in all 5 swing state races (NV, AZ, PA, WI, MI).  MT looks lost, but Texas is in play.  OH is the only one that looks like a true toss-up but you gotta think the incumbent has a slight advantage.  Right now it looks like 48-52.  Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski would be targets to play the role to stop the GOP from fucking shit up majorly.

 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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Incumbents are usually vulnerable when they can’t hit 50% and the challenger is within the margin of error. Emerson shows Cruz under 50 with a one point advantage. Prior polls show 50 or higher and significant margins. So we either have a late breaking race or an outlier poll. Not enough recent data to tell. 
 

The issue for the 4 Democrat incumbents in the Great Lakes states is that all of the are polling under 50% consistently. Baldwin in WI has been under 50 in the last 8 polls and half of them have her between 46 and 48. I think Brown in OH hit 50 in one out of the last 8 polls. 6 of those show his support under 48%. With the advantages of incumbency, under 48 is red flashing lights with sirens thrown in. Voters know the incumbent. If half of them can’t support the devil they know, most of them will break for the challenger. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4619

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1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Incumbents are usually vulnerable when they can’t hit 50% and the challenger is within the margin of error. Emerson shows Cruz under 50 with a one point advantage. Prior polls show 50 or higher and significant margins. So we either have a late breaking race or an outlier poll. Not enough recent data to tell. 
 

The issue for the 4 Democrat incumbents in the Great Lakes states is that all of the are polling under 50% consistently. Baldwin in WI has been under 50 in the last 8 polls and half of them have her between 46 and 48. I think Brown in OH hit 50 in one out of the last 8 polls. 6 of those show his support under 48%. With the advantages of incumbency, under 48 is red flashing lights with sirens thrown in. Voters know the incumbent. If half of them can’t support the devil they know, most of them will break for the challenger. 

I would trade a Sherrod Brown loss for a Ted Cruz loss.  And I really like Sherrod Brown.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31434

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On 10/17/2024 at 11:32 AM, SydneyCarton said:

Why are they even allowed to unseal documents like divorce shit?

Court documents are presumptively public.  There's little reason for anything really embarrassing to be in the public record absent a trial.

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2612

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, sushihorn said:

With the advantages of incumbency, under 48 is red flashing lights with sirens thrown in. Voters know the incumbent. If half of them can’t support the devil they know, most of them will break for the challenger.

I’m finding I disagree with Nate Silver enough that I hate to use him as an authority, but one thing he said that I agree with is that incumbency may not be an advantage any longer.  That said, I don’t think the fence sitters breaking for the challenger can be presumed.  

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11133

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Posted
14 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

Kari Lake thinks she is tied with Gallego.

 

Every time I see Lake on video with that crazy unrealistic face filter, I think of the floating head Zordon speaking to the Power Rangers. It's like her Zoom background is the picture of a normal woman, but they superimpose her detached face over the neck area to make it look like a regular person. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2612

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

Kari Lake thinks she is tied with Gallego.

 

Spoiler

image.jpeg.6d28b878d1f11a276e2d9d5bb99780a1.jpeg

 

4 minutes ago, Underdog said:

In the spirit of Halloween, her face reminds me of this... 

image.png.e120d09698369c2c16b14daaadade837.png

 

 

Ach!  You beat me for the same joke!

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