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2024 Senate Elections

Ghost of LL

By Ghost of LL
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HenryJames
HenryJames
Horn Under a Bad Sign
Horn Under a Bad Sign

This is a brilliant political commercial.          

cactusflinthead
cactusflinthead

This applies here too.  

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  • 3 weeks later...
Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15699

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6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Nice new polls in Arizona

3 way race:

Gallego 34
Sinema 26
Lake 25

Gallego 32
Sinema 28
Masters 24

2 way race

Gallego 45
Lake 35

Gallego 44
Masters 36

Yeah--I don't think that's particularly predictive of an election 15 months out.  But it does reflect that Sinema is incredibly unpopular with Democratic voters.  She'd have gotten beat 2- or 3-to-1 in a primary against Gallego.

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Js1

Js1 87214

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--I don't think that's particularly predictive of an election 15 months out.  But it does reflect that Sinema is incredibly unpopular with Democratic voters.  She'd have gotten beat 2- or 3-to-1 in a primary against Gallego.

Yeah, she’s going to pull from the GOP nominee more than she will Gallego. 

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Blotto

Blotto 24037

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On 11/14/2022 at 12:40 PM, Ghost of LL said:

It's all done but the crying in Georgia, so let's get this started.

The "dumb jock w/multiple kids out of wedlock" playbook was such a success for the party of family values in GA, they're gonna run it back in CA. At least Garvey possesses the youthful enthusiasm and clear understanding of the challenges facing americans today that only a 74 year-old, rich, white Trumptard can bring to the party. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38623147/former-dodgers-padres-star-steve-garvey-joins-us-senate-race 

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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7 hours ago, Blotto said:

The "dumb jock w/multiple kids out of wedlock" playbook was such a success for the party of family values in GA, they're gonna run it back in CA. At least Garvey possesses the youthful enthusiasm and clear understanding of the challenges facing americans today that only a 74 year-old, rich, white Trumptard can bring to the party. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38623147/former-dodgers-padres-star-steve-garvey-joins-us-senate-race 

 

The governator was the last republican who’s going to win statewide in California for a long ass time.  It doesn’t really matter who they run.

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MrBig

MrBig 5647

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7 hours ago, Blotto said:

The "dumb jock w/multiple kids out of wedlock" playbook was such a success for the party of family values in GA, they're gonna run it back in CA. At least Garvey possesses the youthful enthusiasm and clear understanding of the challenges facing americans today that only a 74 year-old, rich, white Trumptard can bring to the party. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38623147/former-dodgers-padres-star-steve-garvey-joins-us-senate-race 

 

IMG_2630.jpeg.551af8b9ff5c8d1ed783c089d53f0298.jpeg

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15699

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9 hours ago, Blotto said:

The "dumb jock w/multiple kids out of wedlock" playbook was such a success for the party of family values in GA, they're gonna run it back in CA. At least Garvey possesses the youthful enthusiasm and clear understanding of the challenges facing americans today that only a 74 year-old, rich, white Trumptard can bring to the party. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38623147/former-dodgers-padres-star-steve-garvey-joins-us-senate-race 

 

He needed to run for Dodgers' pitcher.  They could've used him.

And yeah--I know Steve Garvey was a first baseman.  I don't care.  I bet he'd have an ERA lower than 25.

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11245

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On 11/7/2023 at 3:46 PM, Zonahorn said:

 

Nice

Would love to know the demographics of that 17% that would consider voting for her. Who the hell does she appeal to? I figured most of her fans would lean D, but that poll, if accurate and reasonable, shows about a near even split in people who would otherwise vote R/D. 

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Js1

Js1 87214

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3 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Would love to know the demographics of that 17% that would consider voting for her. Who the hell does she appeal to? I figured most of her fans would lean D, but that poll, if accurate and reasonable, shows about a near even split in people who would otherwise vote R/D. 

McCain Republicans.  Lake is too crazy for them, but they can't stomach Gallego. Sinema was like, a perfect balance as a "moderate" they could hold their nose and vote for. 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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45 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Wow.  Sinema just getting killed.

Matches her approval rating

 

20 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Would love to know the demographics of that 17% that would consider voting for her. Who the hell does she appeal to? I figured most of her fans would lean D, but that poll, if accurate and reasonable, shows about a near even split in people who would otherwise vote R/D. 

Big-brained, self-stylized moderates 

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Hookah Horns

Hookah Horns 3089

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Machin is not running for re-election.

Hate him but this sucks. He probably was gonna lose to whatever clown the Rs are running, but this assures the loss of that seat and it looks likely he follows through with the stupid ass No Labels POTUS campaign that will help dotard. 

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Js1

Js1 87214

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2 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

Hate him but this sucks. He probably was gonna lose to whatever clown the Rs are running, but this assures it and it looks likely he follows through with the stupid ass No Labels POTUS campaign that will help dotard. 

He had a decent shot against Morrisey, but Trump came out and endorsed Justice, and Justice is up big in the polls against Manchin.  It was frankly a miracle he held on in 2018 to even give us a 50/50 Senate after 2020.

Time to focus money on Ohio, Montana, Wisconsin, Arizona.  If we really wanted to waste a bunch of money, Texas.  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19458

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Between a pretty safe slate for class I GOP'ers, and Sinema and now Manchin...there's a good chance the Senate flips again while the Democrats recapture the House.  

I mean, my hyperbole aside...when one of the most at-risk seats in Class I for Senate on the R side is Ted Cruz, that's both damming and telling.  

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Js1

Js1 87214

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5 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Between a pretty safe slate for class I GOP'ers, and Sinema and now Manchin...there's a good chance the Senate flips again while the Democrats recapture the House.  

I mean, my hyperbole aside...when one of the most at-risk seats in Class I for Senate on the R side is Ted Cruz, that's both damming and telling.  

No you're right.  It's not a good map for the Dems - WV, OH, MT are heavy lifts.  If anyone else but Trump was on the ballot, maybe Texas and FL would be realistic targets.

About the only good thing you can say is Tester and Brown have very strong brands.  Brown straddles the line very well in Ohio, and Tester is the personification of Montana. 

Thankfully, it does look like if the GOP retakes the Senate, it would be a small majority (51 or 52 seats) and 2026 has Alaska, Maine, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13740

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I feel like this seals the fate of the senate flipping back Red. The one unknown is that the Republicans often shoot themselves in the foot in nominating the worst candidate. See Roy Moore in Alabama.

6 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I mean, my hyperbole aside...when one of the most at-risk seats in Class I for Senate on the R side is Ted Cruz, that's both damming and telling.  

If Texas Democrats want to win a statewide election like senator, they need to find the most right Democrat who most likely is a white guy. He needs to be pro-2A and at most, neutral on abortion. Perhaps say it should be a states right and the feds should stay out of it. If you can't beat Ted Cruz in a popularity contest, you're doing something wrong.

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Js1

Js1 87214

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2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I feel like this seals the fate of the senate flipping back Red. The one unknown is that the Republicans often shoot themselves in the foot in nominating the worst candidate. See Roy Moore in Alabama.

Still not going to say this seals it. 

The Ohio GOP candidates kind of suck, and if Trump endorses Bernie Moreno, that's the easiest opponent. 

For Montana, between Sheehy and Rosendale, Tester is holding his own in early polling. 

I cannot write off either race after Susan Collins survived 2020.  Personal brands and incumbency can still win. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19458

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23 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I feel like this seals the fate of the senate flipping back Red. The one unknown is that the Republicans often shoot themselves in the foot in nominating the worst candidate. See Roy Moore in Alabama.

If Texas Democrats want to win a statewide election like senator, they need to find the most right Democrat who most likely is a white guy. He needs to be pro-2A and at most, neutral on abortion. Perhaps say it should be a states right and the feds should stay out of it. If you can't beat Ted Cruz in a popularity contest, you're doing something wrong.

That's just it.  Ted beats people, big, who have way better personalities.  Dewhurst as shitty was he was, at least comes across as an adult with some modicum of decency.  Ted and Drogin wiped the fucking floor with him in a runoff.  Then Mr. Charm himself, Beto, comes along, and gets mopped up by Ted as well.  Dowd gave serious consideration to running against Cruz and Matt is a really likable guy with a good personal narrative.  But even he knew he couldn't stop Ted.  No Democrat is going to beat Ted Cruz in 2024.  I seriously doubt any Democrat would beat Cruz in 2030, unless Ted is obnoxiously clamoring for a cabinet/high level judiciary position at the same time and even hardcore GOP Texans think it's in poor taste he run for Senate at the same time.  

You run a half-ass decent primary opponent toot-sweet against Cruz in 2024 and have a few hundred thousands Democrats pull primary ballots for (R) instead of futile D races that will lose obscenely in generals (save for the handful of competitive congressional districts down south)...Cruz loses worst case.  Best case, you get to pick from a moderate R or the D in the general.  But either way, Cruz is gone.  The system and numbers are there, but it won't happen because every Republican is evil and that Justice of the Peace primary in Houston is the most important thing we can vote on as Americans.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19560

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52 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

Hate him but this sucks. He probably was gonna lose to whatever clown the Rs are running, but this assures the loss of that seat and it looks likely he follows through with the stupid ass No Labels POTUS campaign that will help dotard. 

Why would No Labels necessarily help the GOP?

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Why would No Labels necessarily help the GOP?

It won't, but it will land Machin a retirement payday in the form of a book deal.  Not great for Senate, not even lean Rs according to Cook up for 2024.  Going by that, to maintain we would need a sweep plus a pick off of either Scott (Florida) or Cruz.  Still, lots can change in a year.  

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Don Johnson

Don Johnson 4851

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5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Why would No Labels necessarily help the GOP?

Yeah.  There are a lot of Never Trumpers that would vote for Manchin.

Would be pretty interesting if Manchin and RFK Jr both got 10%, especially if they took a state or two.  Could make 270 very difficult for anyone or we could have a president elected with 40% or less of the popular vote.

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Don Johnson

Don Johnson 4851

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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No third party candidate is winning a state or taking 10% lol. Not even in 2016 

If there was ever a year, it would be 2024.  81 year old Biden vs. Felon Trump.  I agree that polls this far out are not accurate, but 24% to RFK isn't something to just dismiss.  And there are a lot of Never Trumpers that just won't vote in a Biden-Trump 1v1 that would vote for Manchin.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html

 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2751

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1 hour ago, Hookah Horns said:

Hate him but this sucks. He probably was gonna lose to whatever clown the Rs are running, but this assures the loss of that seat and it looks likely he follows through with the stupid ass No Labels POTUS campaign that will help dotard. 

I just can’t envision a scenario in which any of the rumored or actual third party candidates hinder Biden more than Trump.  

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Top line is extremely believable so…

 

OH is winnable for the Democrats.  Sherrod Brown is a good candidate.  They can win OH and AZ and keep it at 49-51.  That would mean healthy gridlock if Biden wins rather than the pure constant unassailable MAGA obstruction (and worse) that would come with a 47-53 senate.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12654

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10 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

So, people are going to vote for Trump and Sherrod Brown?

M'kay.

I believe it.

never ceases to amaze me the mental gymnastics people can perform.

I can see a pro-life union woman who had an abortion once voter in my head. She’s happy with her union now that they won a great new contract….. but she still feels bad about the economy and thinks Biden is way too old. Trump tells it like it is and January 6th was… what again? A tour gone bad? 

She splits the baby in two and votes Brown and trump.

 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6780

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5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I feel like this seals the fate of the senate flipping back Red. The one unknown is that the Republicans often shoot themselves in the foot in nominating the worst candidate. See Roy Moore in Alabama.

If Texas Democrats want to win a statewide election like senator, they need to find the most right Democrat who most likely is a white guy. He needs to be pro-2A and at most, neutral on abortion. Perhaps say it should be a states right and the feds should stay out of it. If you can't beat Ted Cruz in a popularity contest, you're doing something wrong.

This ensures the status quo and does no help

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