2024 Senate Elections

[GopherRock 1765]

14 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

I want to believe

 

 

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

13 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

I want to believe

 

[Js1 85258]

That poll isn't terrible actually

They have Trump +7 and the GCB is GOP +4.  So they have Allred outrunning Biden by 7 points

[Nice Guy Eddie 13506]

1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

 

I want to believe

 

so Cruz wins 59-41

 

 

[kevwun 15757]

8-10% imo.

[gmr548 16575]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

so Cruz wins 59-41

 

 

 

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

8-10% imo.

Cornyn won by 9.5 in 2020, he'll underperform that. 4-6 sounds right to me, but never in doubt. Kind of like Trump in 2020.

[Brisketexan 105041]

1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

 

I want to believe

 

And I want a foursome with Susanna Hoffs, Sela Ward, and my wife (she'd be down for that lineup, I think).  Odds of my dream coming true are better.

Cruz wins by 4-6%.  If the margin is only 3% or so, that's hellacious overperformance by Allred.

[Snake Diggity 4619]

1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

 

I want to believe

 

Don’t torture yourself.

[Js1 85258]

18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And I want a foursome with Susanna Hoffs, Sela Ward, and my wife (she'd be down for that lineup, I think).  Odds of my dream coming true are better.

Cruz wins by 4-6%.  If the margin is only 3% or so, that's hellacious overperformance by Allred.

(the second part, I am not speaking for your wife)

[Brisketexan 105041]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

(the second part, I am not speaking for your wife)

But, I mean....you could put in a good word with her for me.  And with Sela and Susanna.  Come one, man.  Bro code.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2819]

Just heard a short discussion (Houston Chronicle) with Allred and Roland Gutierrez.  Gutierrez sounded pretty good I thought.  They didn't talk guns, but this should be the absolute standard profile for any Texan trying for a statewide office.

As a gun owner and an avid hunter and fisherman, Gutierrez said he does not want to take away anybody’s guns, but he doesn’t want AR-15’s to be sold anymore.

“I own a lot of guns, and I believe in the Second Amendment, but I saw and continue to see what is happening across this country,” he said. “In Uvalde, I saw exactly what that weapon did to those babies. It is not something I want to see any parent have to live through again. We know it continues to happen. We have a lot of work to do in this country.”

[Js1 85258]

I know Allred is the hot name, but I really like Gutierrez.  I'm still undecided for the primary. 

[Chuckie Finster 22692]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I know Allred is the hot name, but I really like Gutierrez.  I'm still undecided for the primary. 

Allred has a resume of someone you could see winning state office, but he hasn't done a thing since declaring to raise his profile enough to make this a race worth paying attention to.  There's still time, I guess, but I'm unimpressed with his campaign to date.

Edited February 15 by Chuckie Finster

[Js1 85258]

Well he did side with the GOP on the border, like a spineless coward.  Instead of calling them out for scuttling a deal because Trump threw a tantrum. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26429]

Worth mentioning that lots of Austin Dems who had been public for Allred have been not just switching but making a point of very publicly announcing that they were switching for Roland Gutierrez.
There have been lots of complaints from them about Allred not working hard  or seeming interested and taking the nomination for granted. I’m not close to it and have no idea how real it is, or if it’s just typically thin-skinned  Austin Democrats wanting to be treated like BSDs and feeling ignored, but it’s out there. 

[Brisketexan 105041]

48 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Worth mentioning that lots of Austin Dems who had been public for Allred have been not just switching but making a point of very publicly announcing that they were switching for Roland Gutierrez.
There have been lots of complaints from them about Allred not working hard  or seeming interested and taking the nomination for granted. I’m not close to it and have no idea how real it is, or if it’s just typically thin-skinned  Austin Democrats wanting to be treated like BSDs and feeling ignored, but it’s out there. 

I prefer Gutierrez on policy points.  But I also know Allred's gonna walk away with the nomination easily.  And I suspect that he knows that too, and isn't spending much effort courting the crankiest of primary voters, because he doesn't need them right now.  And if he gets the nomination, 99% of those folks will show up to vote against Cruz, so he's good.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2819]

Allred's style and approach are perfect -- perfect - for suburban Texas.  Including the siding with the GOP now and again.

We'll find out if that works out on the state level. 

(I wish he had played for the Pokes or whoever the Oilers became. I especially wish he hunted and kilt animals.)

[Ghost of LL 15531]

On 2/13/2024 at 12:44 AM, texastough said:

Makes me want to move to ND to vote for her

Eh, . . . can I maybe just visit for a few hours?  Like fly into Fargo, cast a ballot, and then fly right back out?

[cactusflinthead 27598]

This applies here too.

 

[Brisketexan 105041]

Eh, . . . can I maybe just visit for a few hours?  Like fly into Fargo, cast a ballot, and then fly right back out?

Oh, you'll wanna stay long enough to get some delicious hot dish though, you betcha.
 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh, you'll wanna stay long enough to get some delicious hot dish though, you betcha.
 

My god, man.

Seriously--what the fuck is wrong with you?

[Brisketexan 105041]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

My god, man.

Seriously--what the fuck is wrong with you?

What, that recipe look too spicy for ya?

[Dahobbs 17521]

15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

My god, man.

Seriously--what the fuck is wrong with you?

1. A jar(?!) of cheez wiz? It comes in jars? I thought the whole point was cheese you could spray?

2. 8 ounces of cheez wiz may be more cheez wiz than I have had over my entire life. Yes, I was deprived as a child. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

38 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

1. A jar(?!) of cheez wiz? It comes in jars? I thought the whole point was cheese you could spray?

2. 8 ounces of cheez wiz may be more cheez wiz than I have had over my entire life. Yes, I was deprived as a child. 

It's definitely not more than I've had in my life, because I like a good cheesesteak.  And this is very important--Cheez Whiz is the proper cheese product to put on a cheesesteak.

But it has no business anywhere near an enchilada.  The proper cheese for an enchilada of the cheese variety is, as everyone knows, Land O Lakes Extra Melt Shredded Processed Yellow American Cheese.

[Brisketexan 105041]

45 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

1. A jar(?!) of cheez wiz? It comes in jars? I thought the whole point was cheese you could spray?

MY GOD, MAN!

Cheese Whiz and "cheese you could spray" (aka, Easy Cheese) are two ENTIRELY DIFFERENT - but GLORIOUSLY AMERICAN - "cheese" products.

 

Now, I understand how you might be confused, as the sneaky bastards at Kraft have ALSO packaged Cheese Whiz in an aerosol-propelled form:

All of that said, the king version of the spray-can cheeses is this flavor:

But if you hate yourself, you can buy the knockoff Wal-Mart version:

Consider yourself educated, my friend.  You are now a better American because of it.

 

[Js1 85258]

Matt Rosendale already quit his senate campaign. One week, didn’t get the a Trump endorsement - 

[Brisketexan 105041]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Matt Rosendale already quit his senate campaign. One week, didn’t get the a Trump endorsement - 

Matt Rosendale.  AKA "a pathetic knockoff of Henry Rollins who regularly cries in the dark as he masturbates to interracial gay porn."

You do you, Matt.  You probably wouldn't feel so guilty and cry so much if you just came out.  I sure wouldn't judge you for that.  Be you, be free.

[Francisco 2.0 32385]

 

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

 

[YGIFS 19449]

This club has everything.  Enchiladas, competitive Senate races, Canned Cheese products, public transit, and pastel neckties.  Even a 'Minnesota Hot Dish!'

"Uh, a 'Minnesota Hot Dish', Stefon?" 

Yeah, it's like that thing where Brisket does like an American Pie thing but puts his thing in a pan of hot buttered elves and pretends it's Susanna Hoffs.  

FOR WEEKEND UPDATE, I'M LOBO...

[Doc Sam Beckett 5792]

5 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

(I wish he had played for the Pokes or whoever the Oilers became. I especially wish he hunted and kilt animals.)

 

I also kind of hope Allred wins, turns heel, and becomes a super GQP. Would be the most Texas thing ever 

[Gatorubet 30183]

1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

I also kind of hope Allred wins, turns heel, and becomes a super GQP. Would be the most Texas thing ever 

[berlinerbaer 670]

11 hours ago, Js1 said:

That poll isn't terrible actually

They have Trump +7 and the GCB is GOP +4.  So they have Allred outrunning Biden by 7 points

We can debate the accuracy of the D-R head-to-heads, like Trump +7 over Biden. That result is obviously subject to the perceived partisan lean of the sample set versus the actual partisan lean, which is of course unknown. The comparisons within party, OTOH, such as between Biden and Allred, are likely to be more accurate because the partisan lean of the sample set doesn't really matter as much. 

IIRC, the last poll had Allred running ahead of Biden by a similar margin. A national environment like that in 2020, when Trump beat Biden by 5.5 in Texas, could see Allred beat Cruz.

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

18 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

 

I want to believe

 

[Snake Diggity 4619]

A black Democrat is not going to defeat an incumbent white male GOP Senator.

[South Austin 52431]

18 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

 

I want to believe

 

Newsflash: The 12% undecided are the Republicans who are too embarrassed to admit that they’ll vote for Ted Cruz.

[Neonmoon 38129]

4 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Newsflash: The 12% undecided are the Republicans who are too embarrassed to admit that they’ll vote for Ted Cruz.

Those are called “Fiscal Conservatives” or whatever bullshit they tell themselves these days to pull the level for pieces of shit. 

[South Austin 52431]

4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Those are called “Fiscal Conservatives” or whatever bullshit they tell themselves these days to pull the level for pieces of shit. 

At least they’re honest enough to ditch the bullshit “Compassionate Conservative” label.

[Bozo_Casanova 26429]

 

[Js1 85258]

12 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Polls are polls, but I told y'all, Tester is a strong fucking incumbent.  He is just 100% what someone from Montana is supposed to be. 

Sheehy is a carpet bagger from Minnesota with a ton of money to self-fund.  He's also never run a political campaign before. 

I would not be shocked with a Dem President, Dem House and 50/50 Senate.  2020-redux.  But this time, no more Manchin or Sinema. Bye bye filibuster! (with 2026 looming with a potentially open seats in Texas, NC and Maine) 

Edited February 16 by Js1

[Guest]

I'm in the Gutierrez camp. Of course, I'll vote for Allred in the general, but in the primary, I'm excited to vote Gutierrez. 

I have no idea what Allred stands for or what he has done. I never even heard of him before he announced and I live in Texas and vote blue. Even now the only thing I've seen from him are text messages asking for money.

Uvalde is something that hit me really, really hard and does to this day. Gutierrez has stood and fought for those families in the face of the Republican party over and over again. I'd love to elevate that voice even more. 

I also think that Gutierrez will light into Ted Cruz (who absolutely deserves it). Allred? Seems like he would treat him with kid gloves from what I've seen.

Edited February 16 by FirstTimeCaller

[The Original Greaser Bob 2819]

4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

A black Democrat is not going to defeat an incumbent white male GOP Senator.

He's a faux Metsican.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2819]

Fuck.  Looks like I'm going to have to be defending Allred the next few months.

I think the book "Dress for Success" came out a fuck long time ago. Anyway, it basically said minorities should always wear conservative suits.

Allred is the epitome of that playbook. He's a black man that most whites are comfortable with. 

I don't begrudge him sticking to that playbook.  He's not going to get in the dirt, like Gutierrez will.  And that's no fucking fun, but neither is rope-a-dope.

The progressive angry Hispanic or Hispanic wannabee hasn't worked over the last couple of cycles for state wide office.

When Allred beat Pete Sessions, there were plenty of people in our district who thought he was too milktoast, but miltoast still tastes better than horseshit, and I guess that's the longshot play.  Especially when the dems are going to show up to vote against Trump.

[Serak The Preparer 3431]

/milquetoast.

 

/milquetoast.

[Guest]

Oh, I have nothing against Allred, I just have nothing for him either. The literal only things I know about him are 1) he is is a rep from Dallas and 2) he played football.

 

[F250 28760]

4 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I'm in the Gutierrez camp. Of course, I'll vote for Allred in the general, but in the primary, I'm excited to vote Gutierrez. 

I have no idea what Allred stands for or what he has done. I never even heard of him before he announced and I live in Texas and vote blue. Even now the only thing I've seen from him are text messages asking for money.

Uvalde is something that hit me really, really hard and does to this day. Gutierrez has stood and fought for those families in the face of the Republican party over and over again. I'd love to elevate that voice even more. 

I also think that Gutierrez will light into Ted Cruz (who absolutely deserves it). Allred? Seems like he would treat him with kid gloves from what I've seen.

I heard Gutierrez on TPR the other day. He sounds like someone that will rip into Cruz. Allred is likely to rip into Biden and start a "build the wall" chant.

Edited February 16 by F250

[Js1 85258]

Yes, I am leaning toward Roland for the primary.  And obviously whoever wins the primary gets my vote. 

[chainsaw 9850]

2 minutes ago, F250 said:

I heard Gutierrez on TPR the other day. He sounds like someone that will rip into Cruz. Allred is likely to rip into Biden and start a "build the wall" chant.

Judges

[Voldemort86 2259]

22 hours ago, Js1 said:

Polls are polls, but I told y'all, Tester is a strong fucking incumbent.  He is just 100% what someone from Montana is supposed to be. 

Sheehy is a carpet bagger from Minnesota with a ton of money to self-fund.  He's also never run a political campaign before. 

I would not be shocked with a Dem President, Dem House and 50/50 Senate.  2020-redux.  But this time, no more Manchin or Sinema. Bye bye filibuster! (with 2026 looming with a potentially open seats in Texas, NC and Maine) 

Feels like Tester is the new Joe Manchin in a sense that once the dems lose him, the seat is likely gone forever.  I’m not sure what the solution is long term. How many more terms could we expect from Tester?  Peltola could try running for senate in Alaska?  But I’d probably rather Peltola go the way of Don Young and stay in that seat for the next 40 years.

seems like senate seats are scarcer for dems because the District of Columbia doesn’t have any while the GOP gets senate seats for really small states like Wyoming and north / South Dakota.

[Bozo_Casanova 26429]

34 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Feels like Tester is the new Joe Manchin in a sense that once the dems lose him, the seat is likely gone forever.  I’m not sure what the solution is long term

Oh I don’t know, maybe the Dems could try actually appealing to rural people and agrarian areas of the country as fellow citizens and equals, with problems worth solving and talking about without first chanting a litany of intersectional woes? Tester does that. So does Manchin. So does Bashear. Others can too.

Republicans aren’t winning working-class people and rural areas by superior force. They are winning by default. 

Edited February 17 by Bozo_Casanova