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Texas opens as an 8 point favorite v Baylor

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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ButtFumble

ButtFumble 5158

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Baptist don't dance, drink, or gamble so you have to set the line higher to draw that Baptist money out to bet on Baylor because there is little chance that Texas fans are going to see this as too high or even if they do that they will take Baylor and the points even if that means Texas wins by 7 and they win the bet

even with the decent (as far as participation vs just "being there") crowds that Texas has had this season I do not see a massive home advantage for Texas to bump this up the extra 4 or 5 points I think are on this line

I am less worried about the Texas defense, but extremely worried about the offense

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VirginiaLonghorn

VirginiaLonghorn 4750

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13 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:


How’d they do against KSU relative to Texas?

Believe what you want for whatever reason you choose.  I just don’t see Baylor “down” because they lost a tough game yesterday.  Aranda doesn’t have to do much to convince them they’re competitive against Sark’s roller coaster …

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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Believe what you want for whatever reason you choose.  I just don’t see Baylor “down” because they lost a tough game yesterday.  Aranda doesn’t have to do much to convince them they’re competitive against Sark’s roller coaster …

I’m not saying Baylor will be “down.” I’m saying cherry-picking one game to judge relative performance probably doesn’t provide a lot of insight.
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VirginiaLonghorn

VirginiaLonghorn 4750

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1 minute ago, Doc Daneeka said:


I’m not saying Baylor will be “down.” I’m saying cherry-picking one game to judge relative performance probably doesn’t provide a lot of insight.

How about TCU’s last two opponents were Texas and Baylor .. most recent sample size for all three?  Baylor’s overall performance was better than ours.

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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How about TCU’s last two opponents were Texas and Baylor .. most recent sample size for all three?  Baylor’s overall performance was better than ours.

It’s next to meaningless. What matters the most, imo, is matchups. A team with an elite run defense might work a running team and get steamrolled by a passing team, even if that running team just beat the passing team.

The game most likely will turn on whether Baylor is forced to play the pass at least somewhat honestly, because they have a better chance than Kansas of stopping Texas’ run via numbers.

It will have nothing to do with how they performed against common opponents.
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deadshank

deadshank 24651

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This is why I don’t gamble on football anymore.  When I did it was small stakes stuff but gambling nonetheless.  
 

Texas by 8 points?  I understand oddsmakers are good at their craft and have the uncanny ability to magically be accurate to the nth degree.  
 

At the same time they probably aren’t forlorn, depressed, wounded and untrusting Longhorn football survivor group members.  
 

Based on a single bet, who would take Texas as an 8 point favorite?  Knowing what you have witnessed it doesn’t make sense to us non-Vegas oddsmaker types.  
 

Does it?

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USNALonghorn

USNALonghorn 5024

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57 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

I actually think Baylor will be a problem because they played TCU arguably better than Texas did.  Baylor should have won, we were lucky to get a gift TD that made the game seem closer than it was.

TCU was gifted a TD on their long run when the refs ignored a blatant hold. That was before they accommodated their flopping punter.

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hookem48

hookem48 4631

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2 hours ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

I actually think Baylor will be a problem because they played TCU arguably better than Texas did.  Baylor should have won, we were lucky to get a gift TD that made the game seem closer than it was.

and TCU was lucky a couple holds weren't called and I'm pretty sure TCU got a gift TD on one of the worst blown coverages ever.

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3429

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3 hours ago, Doc Daneeka said:

I’m not saying Baylor will be “down.” I’m saying cherry-picking one game to judge relative performance probably doesn’t provide a lot of insight.

This is Surlyhorns. Jumping to conclusions and hyperbole are not only tolerated but condoned and rewarded.

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tonedeaf

tonedeaf 56

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5 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:


I saw that in the game thread. It read like Texas was being soundly beaten but it was about 41-0 at the time.

If you follow the game thread, we are 0-11, can't block, tackle, cover, they all suck and the entire staff should not be allowed back on the bus.  I love it.  

Beat the fuck out of baylor. ,🤘🤘

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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If you follow the game thread, we are 0-11, can't block, tackle, cover, they all suck and the entire staff should not be allowed back on the bus.  I love it.  
Beat the fuck out of baylor. ,

As I said over there when I read it, I had to check espn to make sure Texas really was on the right side of 55-14.

I get that there’s more to a successful process than the final score, but being that unhappy during an utter dismantling of a team that’s embarrassed Texas a couple of times in a row probably doesn’t make for a very enjoyable experience.
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Skipper

Skipper 6088

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4 hours ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

 Aranda doesn’t have to do much to convince them they’re competitive against Sark’s roller coaster …

Baylor has been consistently inconsistent similar to us.  They had a great performance @Tech, solid road W's @OU and @ISU, completely gave a game away to WVU, played too conservative and blew it against TCU and absolutely shit the bed at home to KSU.  Who the F knows which team will show up on either side.

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