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Conference Championship Games - Discussion

Wally Pryor

By Wally Pryor
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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1651

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Michigan I think is going to have an easy time. They're just a far better team.

I see TCU and Georgia having close games for a half but then pulling away for comfortable wins.

USC on the other hand is in a dog fight. It's in Vegas, so no real home field advantage. Utah won the first matchup, so does that give confidence to Utah, or put a bigger chip on USC's shoulder?  The line is USC by 2.5.   I think USC has been over achieving all year. I'm picking Utah by a point. 

So Georgia, Michigan, and TCU are in.

Last of the four playoff spots: Ohio State.    

Two Big 10 teams. What is the world coming to.

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On 11/29/2022 at 6:40 AM, GTX Horn said:

This is where brand power comes into play. If TCU loses, the committee would likely put in Ohio State and drop TCU. USC may suffer the same fate if they lose, but I think TCU is at a greater risk of being left out with a loss than USC simply because they aren’t a college football blue blood like USC or Ohio State.

Agreed.  They screwed TCU in 2014 for Ohio St. and didn't give them a shot in 2010.  They screwed Okie St. in 2011 for a Bama mulligan.

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9 hours ago, Vertuzzi said:

Fuck all of what you just said. Fuck TCU. And fuck this SEC type of thinking. TCU winning doesn’t benefit Texas at all so why would we root for them to make the playoff? 

Realistically, we don't recruit against TCU.  We recruit against Alabama, Ohio St., Clemson, UGA, USC and then OU and aggy.

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8 hours ago, statsman said:

I guess you’re also a fan of 1984 BYU? I’m more impressed by the Buckeyes’ 11-1, given that they clobbered the pedestrian teams they played. TCU barely escaped TT and OSU at home. 

Who are better than everyone Ohio St. played but ND, Michigan and PSU.

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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8 hours ago, TheBryMan81 said:

I guess I'll be the only one watching the mighty Sun Belt on Saturday?

(Wife is a Troy grad. We debated heading up there for the game, as it's only a couple of hours from where we are now, but we've got other things already scheduled for Saturday)

Sun Belt has been sneaky good this year with multiple power 5 wins from the middle of the pack teams. Coastal Carolina back in the championship game after another year season, but got thrashed by James Madison last week (ineligible for the championship game as this is their first season since moving up. Don't understand that rule.) And will Grayson McKall play? Head coach on the radio said unless he progresses very quickly, likely will be unable to go.

Troy has been sneaky good and, imo, very underrated. 10-2 season with losses to Ole Miss and at App State on a hail mary. If not for the hail mary, they'd be undefeated in conference and they are riding a 9 game winning streak. Defense has been phenomenal (SP+ ranked 8th I believe). 5'8" Mike backer who was a former walk on now tops the NCAA career tackles list. First year head coach was an assistant at Kentucky last year. Offense, on the other hand, is complete dog shit at times (minus an outstanding sophomore RB, who went for over 200 last game and eclipsed 1000 for the season). If Grayson doesn't play, this defense is certainly good enough to win a 10-7 or 17-10 type game 

Grayson McCall is still at Coastal? Feels like he is on the Timmy Chang 7-year eligibility plan.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4997

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Michigan and Georgia are in 100%

USC is 100% in with a win, and 100% out with a loss

TCU is 100% in with a win OR most likely in with a USC loss, a loss to K State AND a USC win and they are replaced by Ohio State.

I don’t see anyone else breaking into the playoffs outside of the top 4 and Ohio State.

A 2 loss team hasn’t cracked the playoff yet and I don’t see it happening for the first time this year.

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C-Man

C-Man 27244

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7 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Michigan and Georgia are in 100%

USC is 100% in with a win, and 100% out with a loss

TCU is 100% in with a win OR most likely in with a USC loss, a loss to K State AND a USC win and they are replaced by Ohio State.

I don’t see anyone else breaking into the playoffs outside of the top 4 and Ohio State.

A 2 loss team hasn’t cracked the playoff yet and I don’t see it happening for the first time this year.

I don't disagree with this analysis but Ohio State (IMO) belongs nowhere near a 4-team playoff immediately after getting their asses handed to them by Michigan at their home stadium.

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Trojan Man

Trojan Man 429

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On 11/30/2022 at 4:36 PM, 0xdeadbeef said:

USC on the other hand is in a dog fight. It's in Vegas, so no real home field advantage. Utah won the first matchup, so does that give confidence to Utah, or put a bigger chip on USC's shoulder?  The line is USC by 2.5.   I think USC has been over achieving all year. I'm picking Utah by a point. 

Knock on wood, I don't feel that nervous about the game tomorrow.  Utah needed a ton of breaks to get a last minute 1 point win over USC at home.  I won't go on about the specifics unless somebody asks, but it's unlikely they stumble on as many horseshoes this time around.  Utah is also a totally different team away from home than they are in Salt Lake City, where they really feed off their crowd and benefit from thin air that gasses visitors.  Ignoring the empty stadium Covid season, they haven't lost a home game since 2018.  Going back to 2018 (again tossing out 2020) they are just 15-14 in road games and neutral sites.  Play Utah away from home and they're a .500 team.

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1651

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1 hour ago, Trojan Man said:

Knock on wood, I don't feel that nervous about the game tomorrow.  Utah needed a ton of breaks to get a last minute 1 point win over USC at home.  I won't go on about the specifics unless somebody asks, but it's unlikely they stumble on as many horseshoes this time around.  Utah is also a totally different team away from home than they are in Salt Lake City, where they really feed off their crowd and benefit from thin air that gasses visitors.  Ignoring the empty stadium Covid season, they haven't lost a home game since 2018.  Going back to 2018 (again tossing out 2020) they are just 15-14 in road games and neutral sites.  Play Utah away from home and they're a .500 team.

dana-carvey-johnny-carson.gif

 

Well then, I revise my take based on new info and I think the top 4 win and we have a boring selection Sunday. 

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Juicy

Juicy 727

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Knock on wood, I don't feel that nervous about the game tomorrow.  Utah needed a ton of breaks to get a last minute 1 point win over USC at home.  I won't go on about the specifics unless somebody asks, but it's unlikely they stumble on as many horseshoes this time around.  Utah is also a totally different team away from home than they are in Salt Lake City, where they really feed off their crowd and benefit from thin air that gasses visitors.  Ignoring the empty stadium Covid season, they haven't lost a home game since 2018.  Going back to 2018 (again tossing out 2020) they are just 15-14 in road games and neutral sites.  Play Utah away from home and they're a .500 team.

I don’t think that was wood you knocked on.

Not that I am too worried about an Ohio state rematch I just think it would be dumb as shit to play them again after they just got beat by over 3TDs at home.

Put them in the 4 seed and fuck bama. TCU should remain 3 with a win or loss today. A two loss bama over TCU who will have beat every team they played is fucking dumb.
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tonedeaf

tonedeaf 56

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11 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

So with USC's loss, TCU has got to be in the CFP win or lose today... right? 

I'm thinking no.  TCU is just not attractive.  They've had a great year but I'm afraid a TCU loss opens the door for bama or tOSU. Better brands.  Probably not fair, but......

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5826

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18 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

It's not just Alabama's losses...TCU actually has a better resume. More wins and less losses against top 25 teams.

Right but the fart huffing brigade has proven in the past that they prefer marquee over results. This is why the BCS should be brought back to perform the rankings.

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Lou_Sassle

Lou_Sassle 2887

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1 minute ago, Pimphand said:

Right but the fart huffing brigade has proven in the past that they prefer marquee over results. This is why the BCS should be brought back to perform the rankings.

Also, common opponent should be taken into consideration. TCU beat us worse than Bama did.

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29960

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I'm on the Go Frogs boat. I'm old fashioned in that I care about the reputation of the conference we're in. It reflects on the quality of our own victories and defeats. I suppose some asshole will now contort that into saying that I would chant the conference's name. Not true. It's just a rooting interest.

Other than A&M, I prefer rooting for a team than against a team. I don't hate the Aggies, but they literally hate us, so it must be considered. I despise them. Of course, if there's a clear, specific advantage for Texas, my rooting interest may change. 

I like many teams even though I'm Longhorn through and through. I like the stories of college football. Go Frogs.

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29960

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4 minutes ago, Horn80 said:

I don’t want to see Bama jump TCU.  I don’t trust TCU will stay in Top 4 with loss.

Forgot to add that I don't want to see tOSU and Alabama backing into the playoff. For God's sake, let's have somebody new. I rarely watch the rematches between SEC teams. It just means less.

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20300

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7 minutes ago, Horn80 said:

I don’t want to see Bama jump TCU.  I don’t trust TCU will stay in Top 4 with loss.

I want The B12 to get jobbed in the final playoff selection so that they can know their place and understand the impact of the only two brands that people truly want to see in the conference leaving. 

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Make em eat Taco Bell

Make em eat Taco Bell 1549

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Duggan is so clutch. What a leader.  

A coach's dream, flawless fundamentals, field vision, looks off DBs, goes through progression, processes subtle movements instantaneously.  Perfect college QB truly.  Hope he makes it big in the NFL. 

Edited by Make em eat Taco Bell
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Vertigo

Vertigo 20300

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5 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

Duggan is so clutch. What a leader.  

A coach's dream, flawless fundamentals, field vision, looks off DBs, goes through progression, processes subtle movements instantaneously.  Perfect college QB truly.  Hope he makes it big in the NFL. 

Is this satire?

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