House 2018

[TahoeHorn 107]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

 

201 Democrats

Toss Ups 30

Republicans 204

174

12

15

30

12

18

174

218 Seats Needed For Majority

Likely Dem (2R)
AZ9	CA24	FL13
IA2	MN7	NH2
NY3	NY18	OR5
PA5	PA8	WI3

Leans Dem (10R)
AZ1	AZ2	CA7
CA39	CA49	FL7
FL26	FL27	NJ2
NJ5	NJ11	NV4
PA6	PA7	VA10

Toss Up (4D, 24R)
CA10	CA25	CA45
CA48	CO6	GA6
IA1	IL6	IL12
KS2	KS3	MI11
MN1	MN2	MN3
MN8	NE2	NH1
NJ7	NV3	NY19
NY22	PA1	PA10
PA17	TX7	TX23
TX32	UT4	WA8

Leans GOP (0D)
FL16	IA3	KY6
ME2	MI7	MTAL
NM2	NY1	NY11
OH1	VA2	VA7

Likely GOP (1D)
AR2	AZ8	CA21
CA50	FL18	GA7
IL13	IL14	MI8
NC9	NC13	NY24
OH12	PA14	PA16
TX21	WA5	WI1   If this holds the GOP will barely hold.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

[Lurch 5,922]

I’ve never been so eager to vote.  

[Blotto 23,485]

7+ months left for Trump to continue to step on his cheeto dick and embarrass the country. That's a lot dick stepping and embarrassment.

[TahoeHorn 107]

Does anybody have a House race they think RCP has handicapped incorrectly?

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

we can start with PA6 I suppose

Quote

While two other Republicans had filed to run in Costello’s 6th District, the incumbent had more than $1.3 million in his campaign account, and had won his previous races with more than 56 percent of the vote. Democrats, who had persuaded businesswoman Chrissy Houlahan to run in the new district, now expect to face a weaker Republican nominee in November.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/25/facing-unfriendly-new-map-pennsylvania-gop-congressman-will-retire/?utm_term=.d9ece36a1749

So, no I don't think PA6 is a guaranteed red seat next year. 

[TahoeHorn 107]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

we can start with PA6 I suppose

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/25/facing-unfriendly-new-map-pennsylvania-gop-congressman-will-retire/?utm_term=.d9ece36a1749

So, no I don't think PA6 is a guaranteed red seat next year. 

RCP rates PA6 as lean Dem, not safe GOP.  It is red because it is currently GOP.

Edited March 26, 2018 by TahoeHorn

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

Sorry, but TX23 is not a toss-up.  There is genuinely no way in hell Will Hurd holds that seat.

[longhorndude 146]

On 3/25/2018 at 4:17 PM, Lurch said:

I’ve never been so eager to vote.  

Same here, even though I know John Carter is safe it’d be nice to give him a scare.  Pretty sure my state house district is gonna flip though. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Pathetic 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,506]

On 3/25/2018 at 4:17 PM, Lurch said:

I’ve never been so eager to vote.  

Seems less and less likely each day that the GOP can hold onto the House.

[swraith 345]

Assume Dems take the House in spectacular fashion. Assume GOP keeps the Senate. Do Dems stay energized for another 2 years when realistically, controlling the House slows Trumps agenda but does not advance the Democrats agenda ?

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, swraith said:

Assume Dems take the House in spectacular fashion. Assume GOP keeps the Senate. Do Dems stay energized for another 2 years when realistically, controlling the House slows Trumps agenda but does not advance the Democrats agenda ?

Silly question, Trump will still be president.

[Brian Fantana 6,677]

13 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Pathetic 

It's early. What does this mean? 

[Fozzz 152]

Pelosi is garbage.  

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/24/nancy-pelosi-democrats-middle-east-israel-jordan-483494

Yuck.  

[udaydanceparty 33]

7 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

It's early. What does this mean? 

+

 

=

 

It's not that bad of a joke.

Edited March 27, 2018 by udaydanceparty

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

10 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Still don't get the crumb cake joke... 

It goes back to her comment that the tax bill provided nothing but crumbs to most Americans.

[Bateshorn 9,927]

I just wish the stats nerds could get their shit together.  One day it's "HOLY FUCK, IT'S A BLUE TSUNAMI!!!"  the next its "Lol, GOP redistricting means the dems need to win by 100 million votes nationally just to get the house to 218-216."  Like make up your fucking mind.

Edited March 27, 2018 by Bateshorn

[yaqdum 182]

somehow it seems right that an oatmeal raisin cookie wouldn't get a crumb cake joke.

[swraith 345]

40 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I just wish the stats nerds could get their shit together.  One day it's "HOLY FUCK, IT'S A BLUE TSUNAMI!!!"  the next its "Lol, GOP redistricting means the dems need to win by 100 million votes nationally just to get the house to 218-216."  Like make up your fucking mind.

Have to  sell that click bait. Lots of time between now and Election Day.

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I just wish the stats nerds could get their shit together.  One day it's "HOLY FUCK, IT'S A BLUE TSUNAMI!!!"  the next its "Lol, GOP redistricting means the dems need to win by 100 million votes nationally just to get the house to 218-216."  Like make up your fucking mind.

I think the real challenge they're having is that the gerrymander is broken.  The gerrymander in Texas and pretty much elsewhere is built on the assumption that college-educated whites are going to be a Republican constituency.  If that's correct, then the gerrymander ensures that the Democrats do need to outpoll the GOP by quite a lot in order to take the House.  But if college-educated whites are not part of the Republican coalition anymore, then the gerrymander is broken and we don't know by how much the Dems need to outpoll the GOP in order to take the House.

And right now, we don't have enough information to know.  From the polls, we have some indication that college-educated whites are breaking for the Dems, but I think they'd like to have more evidence of that at the voting booth before making any bold predictions.

[Washpark 176]

Ryan Costello (R-Penn) on bloomberg crying that his constitutes kept asking him to respond to Trumps' behavior. He is retiring due to being asked so many questions by his district.

Edited March 27, 2018 by Washpark

[yaqdum 182]

54 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

some indication that college-educated whites are breaking for the Dems

 

9 minutes ago, Washpark said:

retiring

these two potential trends and whatever uncle bobby tri-sticks has up his sleeve make predictions a waste of key-strokes.

[swraith 345]

^^should make for a fun filled election night. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

It is not a coincidence that this wave of veterans is hitting at a moment when a five-time draft-deferringpresident occupies the White House and toxic partisanship has ground Capitol Hill to a virtual halt. The candidates are presenting themselves both as a moral rebuke to what they see as Donald Trump’s self-promoting divisiveness and also as a practical solution to the failure of the nation’s highest legislative body to get anything done. In short, the reputation of the national institution with by far the highest approval rating, the military, is being offered as an antidote to the woes of a schismatic president and a Congress whose approval ratings have never been worse.

 

 

“They’re all people who served the country without worrying about who’s a Democrat and who’s a Republican—let’s just get the damn thing done,” longtime national Democratic strategist Joe Trippi said in an interview. “In this Washington, in this divisive, chaotic cycle, you have these people who’ve proven they can rise above party and actually accomplish a mission.”

And out on the campaign trail, many of them have versions of Max Rose’s experience with opening doors, I heard in conversations with a dozen of these kinds of candidates.

Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor running in New Jersey’s Republican-leaning but open 11th District, sees it when she stops in at diners. It usually happens with older men. “I’ll go up and say, ‘Hi, my name’s Mikie Sherrill and I’m running for Congress,‘” she told me, and she’ll gauge mostly disinterest. “And I’ll say, ‘Yeah, you know, I was a Navy helicopter pilot and a federal prosecutor,’ and then I kind of start to walk away—and they go, ‘Wait a minute, wait a minute …’”

In California’s 50th District, made up mostly of San Diego suburbs and held by embattled GOP Representative Duncan Hunter, Josh Butner gets it when he introduces himself as a former Navy SEAL—who’s a Democrat. “That usually gets the conversation started,” he said. “They say something to the effect of, ‘Yeah, we need more Democrats like you.’ We need more people willing to put the country ahead of political parties. We need more folks willing to work with the other side.’”

Here in New York’s 11th, Rose is running in the most concentrated pocket of Trump Country in a very blue city. All of Staten Island and a slice of southern Brooklyn, it’s the only congressional district in the president’s hometown that voted for him. On Staten Island, voting rolls show five Democrats for every three Republicans, but its elected officials (state and local) are split in favor of the GOP. Whiter and more socially conservative than the rest of the city, Staten Island is home to firefighters, police officers, teachers and people who take the ferry to Manhattan. Five miles from the heart of the city, the people here have a chip-on-the-shoulder attitude, according to Kevin Elkins, a lifelong Staten Islander and Rose’s campaign manager, boiling down to: “Screw the system, because they screwed us.” In that way, it resembles the country as a whole—and explains why 56.9 percent of Staten Island voters picked Trump.