Oklahoma Recruiting 2024: Sunken Eyes and Licking Lips

[Thiefery 5016]

2 hours ago, texifornia said:

Presented without comment

 

[derp 764]

2 hours ago, texifornia said:

Presented without comment

[Hookem10 758]

I HATE OKLAHOMA- HATE EM 

[statsman 5474]

The Crimson and Cream Mailbag, offered for comment

Quote

Below are Stoia’s answers for Monday, Jan. 15.

Predict Jackson Arnold’s stats for this season. 

3,600 passing yards, 34 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns. The rushing stats could end up being a lot higher depending on how much-designed run game Seth Littrell runs. But I do think he will be close on the passing stats. I think he’s going to put up some big numbers in his first year. 

Was Jeff Lebby effectively pushed out?

No. That’s not my understanding of the situation. OU didn’t try to match anything, but that’s to be expected — can’t really match a head coach’s salary in the SEC. Now, do I think that Brent Venables saw some deficiencies in Lebby’s offense? Yes and I think those would’ve been addressed in the offseason in some capacity. And do I think that Lebby wanted to look elsewhere because of the scrutiny he faced on and off the field this past season? Yes, but I don’t think he intended to leave for just any job. 

But this was not a situation where Lebby was being asked to leave. 

Thoughts on Nick Saban retiring and how Kalen DeBoer will do at Bama? Will this bring Bama back a little compared to where they have been for the last century? Is this a good thing for the Sooners?

I do think it will be an adjustment. But all DeBoer has done in his career is win. And I think he has a really good staff. My only concern for DeBoer is what his recruiting strategy looks like and how he handles the pressure that comes with a program like Alabama. Now, his is still Alabama and that name will always carry weight in recruiting. But can he win the top battles for elite guys? We’ll see. And how does he respond in years that Alabama doesn’t compete for a national title? That’s what I want to see. 

The likely reality is no one they would’ve hired could reach what Saban did. Maybe Kirby Smart. So obviously they will take a step back, even if it’s very minimal. But I don’t think it will be a dramatic drop. You can view it as a good thing for OU — maybe mostly in the short term with the Tide coming to Norman next year — but I don’t think it has a huge effect. 

George, do you think Bill Bedenbaugh will be able to put a good line together? How worried are you? As things stand currently, do you think our OL can hold up for the entire season next year?

I think Bedenbaugh will be able to put together a better line than most expect. But do I think it will be good? I’m not sure. It will be above average and will likely be consistent week-to-week. But they just don’t seem to have the talent right now to be a good or great offensive line. Maybe that changed because a couple of the freshmen ended up being studs. But from what we know right now, they don’t have a ton of players who have proven to be great. 

On a scale of 1-10, I’d say I’m about a 7 on the worried scale. I still have some faith in Bedenbaugh to piece this together, but I don’t think the ceiling is that high to begin with. And no, I don’t think it can hold up an entire season unless, like I said, a couple of freshmen become real contributors. 

We had some really good ranked portal classes the last two years. Why do we seem to be struggling in this year’s portal class? What are your overall thoughts on how we handled the portal this go around?

Not sure this class really struggled, other than on the offensive line. When you look at who OU went after in the portal, there were only a handful of misses and almost all of them were on the offensive line. I think OU was more deliberate with what they wanted in the portal. They didn’t chase after fringe guys. They went after players who can help immediately and have experience. 

Other than missing on a few guys on the o-line, I really like this portal class. I still think they could use one more body on the defensive line, which I think they will pursue in the spring — that’s when they landed Da’Jon Terry last year. But everywhere else has been really solid additions that I think will play next year. 

Special teams were not special last year. What changes do you see BV making so it is an improved unit?

Well, for starters, I’d bet a lot of money on OU having a different starting kicker next year. That will be an interesting battle to watch. And that fixes a lot of the issues immediately as it was the most glaring. I also think you’ll see a new punt and kick returner. Gavin Freeman clearly struggled last year back there and I think they’ll give someone else an opportunity. Same with kick return — Jalil Farooq just didn’t do much back there. 

Also, Luke Elzinga should be back next year as he does have a sixth year of eligibility if he wants it. So punting shouldn’t be an issue. 

Fast forward three years and the 2026 season has ended, has BV… 

A) Established himself as a head coach and OU is poised to be an annual playoff team capable of making deep runs. 

B) Is on a major hot seat entering the 26 season requiring a playoff appearance and advancing.

C) Has already been fired as OU coach and the current coach is ______________.

I’m optimistic, so I’m choosing A. And that’s also because I think 2025 is the year you circle for CFP and national title hopes. If things fall into place correctly, that’s the year they should be true contenders. And if that happens, then Venables won’t be on the hot seat in 2026. I also think there’s a chance they can make the playoffs next year. 

I don’t think C is happening unless they just totally fall apart next year and again in 2025. B is a real possibility if they miss the playoffs in 2024 and 2025. Feels like they need to make that one of the next two years. 

I was at the OU/TCU basketball game the other evening and Jamie Dixon had a promotional video playing that encouraged fans to donate to their collective. Can’t recall being at any of the football games this year or last and hearing anything like this, are you surprised at the lack of outreach by the university to the fanbase on this?, and/or the lack of cross collaboration with the collectives to jointly promote NIL initiatives?

I am surprised. It’s one area I think OU can improve. Maybe I missed it, but I don’t recall Oklahoma doing anything like that at football games this year. Not sure if that’s the admin’s decision or Venables’ decision. But I’d have to think if Venables wanted to do something like that, it would happen. You’d think they’d be a lot more outgoing about that stuff. 

Who is making the NIL decisions for the team?

There’s not just one person making decisions. It’s usually a group of people, from those at the collective, a player’s agent, to the staff itself. I do know Curtis Lofton is often in those meetings, as well as other SOUL Mission staffers. Toby Baldwin is also obviously involved, too. But I honestly don’t know how they come up with numbers and things of that nature. 

There are many references to the amount of money these players make through NIL, and it seems that you all have a pretty good idea in most cases. Why do you all never go public with that? Are you asked not to?

We hear numbers for certain players, but we don’t know those numbers for a fact. So it’s hard to share those numbers if we aren’t 100% positive they’re right. That would be irresponsible reporting. I have never seen a physical copy of a NIL contract, so I’m not going to report something like that if I don’t know it for sure. 

Is OU getting bypassed by other teams with the portal and NIL? I know that many posts suggest the Sooners are doing great on a lot of fronts (culture, continuity, etc)…but it seems that we are moving further away from the title contenders than closer.

I’m not so sure it’s OU getting bypassed as much as it is OU having different priorities. The schools you’re seeing dominate NIL — Ole Miss, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oregon, etc. — aren’t exactly blue bloods. They aren’t really contenders, either. At least, not yet. That’s not to say blue bloods aren’t using NIL (Texas definitely is). But I do think a lot of programs like OU are relying on more than just money. And I do think OU needs to be better at NIL and are behind some top schools, like Georgia. But they’re still doing better on NIL than most places, including some blue bloods. 

Is OU trying to make any type of push for any of the Bama players? If so will it make a difference if it seems like we aren’t able/willing to shell out the dough?

Not sure many guys entered the portal the past week from Alabama that OU is interested in. The only real spots OU is looking to add still are offensive and defensive line. Most of those guys from Alabama have already made their decisions.

This is a random question that you probably have no idea about, but what percent chance would you give that OU adds at least some of their unclaimed national titles in football before next season?

0%.

Who will finish ranked higher next season – Oklahoma or Alabama?

Great question. I do think OU now has a better chance of winning that game. But Alabama is still going to be really good next year. So I’ll take the Tide. But it would not shock me if OU wins that game and inevitably is ranked higher at season’s end. 

Can BV find enough players who want culture over cash?

That’s the ultimate question, right? I think he’s done a good job so far of finding the right balance. He knows they have to pay for top talent. But he also wants kids who value OU and the opportunity to play at a place like Oklahoma. I do think there are some kids that it just doesn’t matter and you pay whatever it takes. But I’m not sure Venables will ever have that mindset. 

How far will OU MBB make it in the tournament?

Round of 32. I’m not ready to say this group can make the Sweet 16. And that might largely depend on their draw. But I do think this team can win a tournament game. And one thing we know about Porter Moser is he’s really good come tournament time. So I think this team could go on a run. 

Who is the positive surprise on the O-line next year? Why?

Eddy Pierre-Louis. I think he will be the most ready to play next year and I bet by the end of the season he will be a starter. That’s a total shot in the dark but I think he’s next year’s Cayden Green. 

Why not just hand the defense over to Roof? If I was Ted Roof I’d be pissed.

We know what Ted Roof is as a playcaller and it’s not great. The risk-reward with Zac Alley is much higher. He’s also someone who I think will be much more of a help when it comes to recruiting. He has really good reviews on the trail when it comes to evaluation and relationship building. Roof didn’t offer as much there. And then when it comes to game planning and scheming, Alley is very innovative and I think Venables wants new ideas and someone who also knows the ins and outs of his defense. Roof knew the defense, but I’m not sure he was bringing anything new to the table. 

What are a few things that you will be keeping an eye on during winter/spring practices?

Which freshmen are standing out in workouts? That’s an easy one, but it does give you some idea of who might be able to contribute right away. Other than that, just seeing which guys gain or lose weight. You saw them get multiple guys over 300 pounds last year on the defensive line. I’m sure that will be the case again this year. Also want to see how Andrel Anthony rehabs. He could be a great player to have back that no one’s talking about. 

How much do you like the Alley hire? Will we see any differences on how he coaches?

I love it. I think he’s a rising coach who will be able to scheme, recruit and teach at a high level. And I do think you’ll see differences in each of those areas. I think he will work extremely well with this current staff and bring a lot to the table in terms of his knowledge and energy. I think we will look back at this hire in a few years and say it was one of Venables’ best decisions. 

Can we just admit this was a much much bigger rebuild than we ever realized?

This was always going to be a 3-4 year process. I’ve always had 2025 as the year that OU should be back in the playoffs. They’re still on track for that and could get there a year early next season. 

OU staff numbers compared to the average SEC school numbers?

OU ranks in the top 10 in salary for assistant coaches. These numbers are from 2023. 

1. Alabama: $9.2 million
2. Georgia: $9 million
3. LSU: $8.9 million
4. Texas: $8.5 million
5. Texas A&M: $8 million
6. Kentucky: $7.9 million
7. Oklahoma: $7.8 million
8. Ole Miss: $7.2 million
9. Auburn: $6.9 million
10. Florida: $6.5 million

 

[CashMcCoy 3199]

7 hours ago, statsman said:

The Crimson and Cream Mailbag, offered for comment

Quote

How far will OU MBB make it in the tournament?

Round of 32. I’m not ready to say this group canmake the Sweet 16. And that might largely depend on their draw. But I do think this team can win a tournament game. And one thing we know about Porter Moser is he’s really goodcome tournament time. So I think this team could go on a run. 

I’m not ready to say this group can make the Sweet 16, but this team could go on a run.

[statsman 5474]

I thought the Sooners’ expectations for Arnold next year are a bit of wish-casting. Also, it is a funny perspective of theirs, where their underperformance in NIL is cast as a lack of effort on their part, rather than a lack of resources. 
 
Their mailbag writer refers to Michigan as a blueprint, and I think he is referring to Michigan’s coaching and player development. As a counterpoint, I would note that I was told by an insider that Michigan has the NIL program that Texas aspires to. 

[texifornia 57036]

11 minutes ago, statsman said:

As a counterpoint, I would note that I was told by an insider that Michigan has the NIL program that Texas aspires to. 

If that's the case, why has their recruiting been so middle of the road?

(Obviously Harbaugh could develop them once they're there)

[closetojumping 62765]

5 minutes ago, texifornia said:

If that's the case, why has their recruiting been so middle of the road?

(Obviously Harbaugh could develop them once they're there)

Because it’s not the case and statesman’s “insider” is a bloviating loudmouth. 

[MisterP 127]

3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Because it’s not the case and statesman’s “insider” is a bloviating loudmouth. 

I prefer the previously mentioned "truck stop grackle".

[texifornia 57036]

 

[statsman 5474]

This is an awesome listen:

thoughts-
-Their NIL collective is managed by a company that manages several schools’ collectives. I wonder if that is akin to an HOA managed by a company, vs. one managed by residents: the latter is always less expensive and more responsive
-They have $4M for the roster, while average for the SEC is $8M. That’s a problem
-the NIL manager was very comfortable talking about AD revenue and NIL as if the funds were fungible- spend less on “Olympic sports” regular operations and more on football NIL. That is a problem, to be discussing that this early. 
-His argument for a (wished for) salary cap, because the chaos demands one, reminds me of the investing saying- “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. 
-He said he advised Castiglione to stop hiring football analysts and instead direct that money to NIL. 
-Their strategy for overcoming shortfalls in NIL: leaning hard on their culture. Lol

I would say that they may have made a huge mistake in joining the SEC, but I would never underestimate the lengths and measures OU will go to in order to keep winning.
 

Edited February 7 by statsman

[statsman 5474]

It was remarkable how much the NIL manager was willing to mention other schools, in comparison, while never mentioning Texas. 

[closetojumping 62765]

47 minutes ago, statsman said:

This is an awesome listen:

thoughts-
-Their NIL collective is managed by a company that manages several schools’ collectives. I wonder if that is akin to an HOA managed by a company, vs. one managed by residents: the latter is always less expensive and more responsive
-They have $4M for the roster, while average for the SEC is $8M. That’s a problem
-the NIL manager was very comfortable talking about AD revenue and NIL as if the funds were fungible- spend less on “Olympic sports” regular operations and more on football NIL. That is a problem, to be discussing that this early. 
-His argument for a (wished for) salary cap, because the chaos demands one, reminds me of the investing saying- “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. 
-He said he advised Castiglione to stop hiring football analysts and instead direct that money to NIL. 
-Their strategy for overcoming shortfalls in NIL: leaning hard on their culture. Lol

I would say that they may have made a huge mistake in joining the SEC, but I would never underestimate the lengths and measures OU will go to in order to keep winning.
 

The SEC average isn't approaching the $8M. Crafted out of whole cloth. Bama, LSU (football), Miss State, Arkansas (football), SCar, UK (football), Vandy, those guys aren't sniffing $3M. Tennessee isn't much better. Ole Miss commits almost all of what they have to the portal and they're not pushing much north of where OU is. Florida and Texas ATM are higher. Missouri and Auburn - who the fuck knows where they land? They both went a little nuts this cycle. Georgia is upper tier. Texas is stratosphere. Even with where Texas is and where the next few land, that isn't driving the 16 team average to $8M with all of those anchors below $3M. 

[statsman 5474]

That is interesting. My guess is the NIL manager wants Sooner fans to believe they need to double their contributions. 
 
 

[kilroydos 267]

Missouri just got a huge donation influx, with some of it ($12M) requested to be earmarked for NIL in couched terms.

Link to local story

[BornAndRaised 12305]

 

[RabidM 2668]

When you need to raise high end, steady streams of consistent income in the millions, who better to turn to than the unwashed masses living in their mobile homes and spending their nights at the bingo hall? 

[Mother mopar 3322]

When you need to raise high end, steady streams of consistent income in the millions, who better to turn to than the unwashed masses living in their mobile homes and spending their nights at the bingo hall? 

Yolo!

[Firemans4Horn 18118]

15 minutes ago, RabidM said:

When you need to raise high end, steady streams of consistent income in the millions, who better to turn to than the unwashed masses living in their mobile homes and spending their nights at the bingo hall? 

They better hope Toby Keith is giving the OU NIL 100% of his will. 

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

20 hours ago, closetojumping said:

The SEC average isn't approaching the $8M. Crafted out of whole cloth. Bama, LSU (football), Miss State, Arkansas (football), SCar, UK (football), Vandy, those guys aren't sniffing $3M. Tennessee isn't much better. Ole Miss commits almost all of what they have to the portal and they're not pushing much north of where OU is. Florida and Texas ATM are higher. Missouri and Auburn - who the fuck knows where they land? They both went a little nuts this cycle. Georgia is upper tier. Texas is stratosphere. Even with where Texas is and where the next few land, that isn't driving the 16 team average to $8M with all of those anchors below $3M. 

Holy shit- Bama and Tiger are at less than 3M a year now?  That quite frankly shocks me. 
I’ve always assumed the number to be a winner in this brave new world is 10 or 12 (counting legitimate and real corporate income) but I figured that would give us a little more cash than Bama and LSU, not 3 or 4 X their war chest. 

[closetojumping 62765]

14 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Holy shit- Bama and Tiger are at less than 3M a year now?  That quite frankly shocks me. 
I’ve always assumed the number to be a winner in this brave new world is 10 or 12 (counting legitimate and real corporate income) but I figured that would give us a little more cash than Bama and LSU, not 3 or 4 X their war chest. 

There’s only so much blood to squeeze from the stone. These are poor fanbases with only so much access to capital that can be earmarked towards something that will never return money. 

Just keep following the storyline of who is screaming for regulation, collective bargaining, caps, equality and other restrictions. Those will be the same schools that benefitted from the closed door bag game who see their little cabal slipping into the abyss. And the actual poors. They’ll be allied with them. And when they all bawl about equality, none of that will have anything to do with helping players maximum their value.  

Fuck the bag gamers and I hope they all die wailing. It’s a shame Ohio State and Georgia have brands and fanbases in decently populated areas. 

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

22 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

There’s only so much blood to squeeze from the stone. These are poor fanbases with only so much access to capital that can be earmarked towards something that will never return money. 

Just keep following the storyline of who is screaming for regulation, collective bargaining, caps, equality and other restrictions. Those will be the same schools that benefitted from the closed door bag game who see their little cabal slipping into the abyss. And the actual poors. They’ll be allied with them. And when they all bawl about equality, none of that will have anything to do with helping players maximum their value.  

Fuck the bag gamers and I hope they all die wailing. It’s a shame Ohio State and Georgia have brands and fanbases in decently populated areas. 

Sure. And I knew we had all those strategic advantages which is why I was on the Alabraska bandwagon for 2 years now but that disparity is huge and shocking. Truly. 

[statsman 5474]

The book about SMU Pony Express days cheating, “A Payroll to Meet”, describes how the payouts were funded by whales like Edwin Cox. Those guys never met recruits in person, had no formal connections to them. They met in person with the bag men, trusted younger grads close to the program, who would take the money and distribute it to desired recruits (names coordinated with coaches). I assume the modern dirty (pre-NIL) programs operate similarly. 
 
That level of giving, the “whales’” contribution, is built into their funding model already. Their new source for funds are the little guys, but you get a lot less from them (and have to work a lot harder). 
 
At Texas, Bellmont has been very effective at raising donations, for legit purposes. Texas’ whales have been giving to get suites, preferential seats, access, names on facilities, personal birthday notes from CDC, etc. Funding NIL requires them to either divert current donations or increase donations. Texas is lucky in that we have sucked recently, and that has suppressed recent donations below their maximized potential (when Texas is winning, the money it draws/makes is incredible). As for the small donors- few schools have as many as a winning Longhorn program. 
 
I would like to think there is a future where Bellmont isn’t going to the same wells, hard, as TexasOne, but it’s going to take some work to get there, I think. It’s unnatural for organizations like Bellmont to reduce begging because another part of the program needs the funds more. 

Edited February 8 by statsman

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

There’s only so much blood to squeeze from the stone. These are poor fanbases with only so much access to capital that can be earmarked towards something that will never return money. 

Just keep following the storyline of who is screaming for regulation, collective bargaining, caps, equality and other restrictions. Those will be the same schools that benefitted from the closed door bag game who see their little cabal slipping into the abyss. And the actual poors. They’ll be allied with them. And when they all bawl about equality, none of that will have anything to do with helping players maximum their value.  

Fuck the bag gamers and I hope they all die wailing. It’s a shame Ohio State and Georgia have brands and fanbases in decently populated areas. 

Their best hope to even the playing field is for collective bargaining, but that just raises the floor. The NIL train has already left the station and the courts are not going to inhibit a kid from making endorsement money above whatever salary they receive. Could you imagine the NFL trying to stop Patrick Mahomes from making State Farm commercials because it's an unfair advantage to the Chiefs. Well, one can dream, I suppose.

[statsman 5474]

Sherwood Blount- theSMU bag man whose name I couldn’t remember. He played for SMU in the’70s, and used his bag man activities to make connections/network the wealthy SMU alums financing the Pony Express. It truly is amazing how much money the Mustangs were throwing around back then. They weren’t using the $20k in an envelope to sway a four star recruit into closing the deal. For a few key recruits, they were buying lifetime annuities. 

Edited February 8 by statsman

[Hookem2147 21345]

 

[Hornlover 8830]

If we end up with some sort of salary cap (say $5mm just for fun), then I assume we'll be back to Texas abiding by the rules and maxing out at $5mm , while Bama, LSU, Aggy, etc. will max out at $5mm and then add in another $1mm of bag money.

So back to the cheaters gaining an advantage by not playing by the rules.

[statsman 5474]

6 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

If we end up with some sort of salary cap (say $5mm just for fun), then I assume we'll be back to Texas abiding by the rules and maxing out at $5mm , while Bama, LSU, Aggy, etc. will max out at $5mm and then add in another $1mm of bag money.

So back to the cheaters gaining an advantage by not playing by the rules.

Yes, that is exactly what will happen

[Magus Ossis 2815]

A salary cap is not particularly relevant. The idea of NIL is that players are free to be compensated by third parties (not for pay per play per se) past what the university already offers for being not the team. As in any professional sport, there will be more opportunities for third party money for some players than for others. The money Mahomes makes for insurance commercials does not count towards the salary cap in the NFL. A team that has more friends in the third party space who are willing to spend more money can not by restricted by a salary cap.

[closetojumping 62765]

13 hours ago, Hornlover said:

If we end up with some sort of salary cap (say $5mm just for fun), then I assume we'll be back to Texas abiding by the rules and maxing out at $5mm , while Bama, LSU, Aggy, etc. will max out at $5mm and then add in another $1mm of bag money.

So back to the cheaters gaining an advantage by not playing by the rules.

 

13 hours ago, statsman said:

Yes, that is exactly what will happen

Paying players is no longer driven by a dark market. With paying players seeing the light of day, there will be actual regulation with known punishments. There won’t be social pressures to stay quiet when it is known that someone is cheating an agreed upon cap and the punishments are severe. Everton is facing relegation in EPL for fucking around and finding out. Pro teams in the US have also dealt with serious shit when they’ve been caught. 

The way programs will “cheat” legally is all of the endorsements players receive. A cap would relieve roster pressures, but the more visible players will be getting paid above that. Schools like LSU and Bama will still be playing from behind compared to Texas, OSU, USC and Georgia in that future state. 

[BurntOrange&White 39942]

25 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

Paying players is no longer driven by a dark market. With paying players seeing the light of day, there will be actual regulation with known punishments. There won’t be social pressures to stay quiet when it is known that someone is cheating an agreed upon cap and the punishments are severe. Everton is facing relegation in EPL for fucking around and finding out. Pro teams in the US have also dealt with serious shit when they’ve been caught. 

The way programs will “cheat” legally is all of the endorsements players receive. A cap would relieve roster pressures, but the more visible players will be getting paid above that. Schools like LSU and Bama will still be playing from behind compared to Texas, OSU, USC and Georgia in that future state. 

We already have the stigma of they get a scholarship so why do we need NIL from our big boosters, right?

 

That will just convert to they are getting paid by the school and gets a scholarship so why do we need NIL IMO.

 

[Hornlover 8830]

3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

Paying players is no longer driven by a dark market. With paying players seeing the light of day, there will be actual regulation with known punishments. There won’t be social pressures to stay quiet when it is known that someone is cheating an agreed upon cap and the punishments are severe. Everton is facing relegation in EPL for fucking around and finding out. Pro teams in the US have also dealt with serious shit when they’ve been caught. 

The way programs will “cheat” legally is all of the endorsements players receive. A cap would relieve roster pressures, but the more visible players will be getting paid above that. Schools like LSU and Bama will still be playing from behind compared to Texas, OSU, USC and Georgia in that future state. 

We're in the Wild West days of NIL, where anything goes. Eventually, the power brokers in the sport will get together to try to do something to rein in some of the chaos and ensure that there's some sort of parity . (Maybe this time they'll skip Condaleeza Rice). Once they agree on some set of rules, then they'll need to figure out enforcement. Whether that's going to be through the NCAA or some other new entity, will be interesting to see.

The professional sports leagues have much greater power over their members, that I don't imagine the colleges will be willing to sign off on.

[cafe society 2872]

On 2/8/2024 at 10:35 AM, statsman said:

Sherwood Blount- theSMU bag man whose name I couldn’t remember. He played for SMU in the’70s, and used his bag man activities to make connections/network the wealthy SMU alums financing the Pony Express. It truly is amazing how much money the Mustangs were throwing around back then. They weren’t using the $20k in an envelope to sway a four star recruit into closing the deal. For a few key recruits, they were buying lifetime annuities. 

And lest we forget, the right honorable governor of Texas, Bill Clements, was also a key player.

[statsman 5474]

6 minutes ago, cafe society said:

And lest we forget, the right honorable governor of Texas, Bill Clements, was also a key player.

He gave us this great bit of “stand up and take blame like a man”, when asked why he lied about SMU continuing payments after the first round of significant NCAA penalties-

“I didn’t see a Bible in the room”. 

[closetojumping 62765]

39 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

We're in the Wild West days of NIL, where anything goes. Eventually, the power brokers in the sport will get together to try to do something to rein in some of the chaos and ensure that there's some sort of parity . (Maybe this time they'll skip Condaleeza Rice). Once they agree on some set of rules, then they'll need to figure out enforcement. Whether that's going to be through the NCAA or some other new entity, will be interesting to see.

The professional sports leagues have much greater power over their members, that I don't imagine the colleges will be willing to sign off on.

 

1) When the groups come together in order to set salary caps, they will establish steep costs for violating the salary cap. This won't be a black market. Anyone trying to establish one will be punished by the collective org. That's basic shit when a market is transparent yet closed. Corruption can occur only within short windows. 

2) Players will still get compensated outside of that for NIL. 

Item 1 presumes that a metric fuckton of things would have to happen in order for 1 to come to fruition. Conferences would have to find a way to align and anoint a commission or commission who would have unchecked power and they would all have to agree to that role and responsibility. If they can never do this, 1 never happens and it doesn't matter.  

Item 2 exists now and won't be changing. People can call it what they want and whine about it if it doesn't serve their purpose, but no one is going to be preventing a player from getting endorsements in whatever form they manifest. They'll be getting run over repeatedly if they try to limit it.  

If folks want to understand how this will all shakeout between the conferences, programs, players, and media deals, they should read a book or two on game theory. A lot of this shit is going to play out in paint-by-numbers fashion once framed in that context. My view is that nothing is going to change this from the "wild west" until the conferences and schools are able to "give" some of the media revenue pie to the collective of players within those conferences. That is a long walk from here. The SEC can't just tell its 16 members that they are all now required to give a certain percentage of their money to the players on campus. Anyone looking for something expeditious is fucked. I think Saban ultimately came to this realization. Alabama is fucked on NIL for the rest of his lifetime. Praise the Lord that that stay true.

[irishtexan 11522]

I wonder if, at some point, we see the NCAA or some sort of governing body begin to require review and approval of NIL contracts to determine if the compensation a player is receiving is commiserate with the requirements. I could see the argument that paying a player $500k - $1m to perform menial and nominal tasks like tweeting endorsements of products, or making public appearances for non-profit organizations is not actual compensation for their NIL, but is instead a way to circumvent "pay for play". This would especially apply to collectives.  That's the area where I can see there being scrutiny.  

[statsman 5474]

18 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

I wonder if, at some point, we see the NCAA or some sort of governing body begin to require review and approval of NIL contracts to determine if the compensation a player is receiving is commiserate with the requirements. I could see the argument that paying a player $500k - $1m to perform menial and nominal tasks like tweeting endorsements of products, or making public appearances for non-profit organizations is not actual compensation for their NIL, but is instead a way to circumvent "pay for play". This would especially apply to collectives.  That's the area where I can see there being scrutiny.  

But, the supreme court said there is nothing wrong with “pay for play”. Quite the opposite. They couldn’t see justification for rules against it (on the conference and NCAA level. Obviously, a school could state that they are not going to pay any players). 

[statsman 5474]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

 

1) When the groups come together in order to set salary caps, they will establish steep costs for violating the salary cap. This won't be a black market. Anyone trying to establish one will be punished by the collective org. That's basic shit when a market is transparent yet closed. Corruption can occur only within short windows. 

2) Players will still get compensated outside of that for NIL. 

Item 1 presumes that a metric fuckton of things would have to happen in order for 1 to come to fruition. Conferences would have to find a way to align and anoint a commission or commission who would have unchecked power and they would all have to agree to that role and responsibility. If they can never do this, 1 never happens and it doesn't matter.  

Item 2 exists now and won't be changing. People can call it what they want and whine about it if it doesn't serve their purpose, but no one is going to be preventing a player from getting endorsements in whatever form they manifest. They'll be getting run over repeatedly if they try to limit it.  

If folks want to understand how this will all shakeout between the conferences, programs, players, and media deals, they should read a book or two on game theory. A lot of this shit is going to play out in paint-by-numbers fashion once framed in that context. My view is that nothing is going to change this from the "wild west" until the conferences and schools are able to "give" some of the media revenue pie to the collective of players within those conferences. That is a long walk from here. The SEC can't just tell its 16 members that they are all now required to give a certain percentage of their money to the players on campus. Anyone looking for something expeditious is fucked. I think Saban ultimately came to this realization. Alabama is fucked on NIL for the rest of his lifetime. Praise the Lord that that stay true.

Thanks, and this all makes sense. 
 
But,…we know OU. They’re not the Ags, willing to be losers as long as they can feel they are victims. How will they respond to not winning big?

 In the past, it took just a few years of Gomer Jones before they hired someone willing to cheat outrageously. 
 
Then, after the Switzer scandal, they went about six years with a “clean-ish” program before saying, “Fuck it”, and hiring Schnellenberger and then Blake. 
 
It’s what they do. If they can’t win by the rules, they start seeking out coaches that will tell them they’ll win, and don’t look too closely at how they do it. Now, they’ve had almost a quarter century of exceptional coaching, to keep them on top, and if that’s ending,…how will they respond?

[closetojumping 62765]

34 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

I wonder if, at some point, we see the NCAA or some sort of governing body begin to require review and approval of NIL contracts to determine if the compensation a player is receiving is commiserate with the requirements. I could see the argument that paying a player $500k - $1m to perform menial and nominal tasks like tweeting endorsements of products, or making public appearances for non-profit organizations is not actual compensation for their NIL, but is instead a way to circumvent "pay for play". This would especially apply to collectives.  That's the area where I can see there being scrutiny.  

The IRS can determine if a payment size merited the impact on a charity or something, but that's about it. The NCAA has zero rights to attempt judge fair market value and would be laughed out of every room, court or otherwise, if they even attempted. If you want to pay a player to show up at your house and watch football with you, and you wanted to pay him $100k to do it and he agreed to do it for that, who in the fuck else has the right to say that that wasn't worth it on either end? Same for an autograph or car lot appearance. 

[closetojumping 62765]

2 minutes ago, statsman said:

Thanks, and this all makes sense. 
 
But,…we know OU. They’re not the Ags, willing to be losers as long as they can feel they are victims. How will they respond to not winning big?

 In the past, it took just a few years of Gomer Jones before they hired someone willing to cheat outrageously. 
 
Then, after the Switzer scandal, they went about six years with a “clean-ish” program before saying, “Fuck it”, and hiring Schnellenberger and then Blake. 
 
It’s what they do. If they can’t win by the rules, they start seeking out coaches that will tell them they’ll win, and don’t look too closely at how they do it. Now, they’ve had almost a quarter century of exceptional coaching, to keep them on top, and if that’s ending,…how will they respond?

I don't know what to tell you guys who keep bringing up the bogeymen of the 80's or even the recent bag game. The game is no longer the same. It's not just more fierce. It's changed. OU can wish their way into cheating with an extra million on the side whatever dumb reason you guys imagine in this example. If that means they're pushing $5M through a roster instead of $4M, while Texas is X times that total, why do we give a fuck? and how is that harming us? 

Is it some unwillingness from a bunch of you to understand what's happening? Texas is the bogeyman, the one who knocks, the entity with the biggest chip stack, the person you get scared of seeing enter the chat, the name you don't say three times in a row, etc. We're no longer in there with the bad guys. The bad guys are now locked in here with us, on our terms. You can stop being scared of LSU, Bama, and Oklahoma. They'll still sign good classes and win guys we wanted, but Texas is going to get what Texas wants and needs. 

[Yesh 931]

It's been discussed that for Texas at least NIL will not be handed out as readily for unproven players.  Will our NIL advantage show up in portal recruiting moreso than high school?

[LCHorn 2628]

4 minutes ago, Yesh said:

It's been discussed that for Texas at least NIL will not be handed out as readily for unproven players.  Will our NIL advantage show up in portal recruiting moreso than high school?

I think it will show up more in retention. 

[closetojumping 62765]

22 minutes ago, Yesh said:

It's been discussed that for Texas at least NIL will not be handed out as readily for unproven players.  Will our NIL advantage show up in portal recruiting moreso than high school?

No one anywhere is just getting handed NIL. Texas is probably more thoroughly covering its roster and than anyone else. Valued guys, whether they've played a ton or not, get accounted for each cycle. There's a small portion of the roster not getting much of anything because, you know, their Name, Image, and Likeness doesn't have any present value. I believe Jaydon Blue was one of twenty+ guys in that spot a year ago. Today? Not so much. There are hopefully and likely multiple guys out of the 20-ish not getting a whole bunch this cycle who will be next cycle's Blue. 

In other situations, there are guys that made NIL money previously who aren't getting much or anything now. Values fluctuate based on many variables at Texas just like anywhere else.

[Saint Tacky 1614]

On 2/7/2024 at 8:02 PM, Mother mopar said:

On 2/7/2024 at 8:00 PM, RabidM said:

When you need to raise high end, steady streams of consistent income in the millions, who better to turn to than the unwashed masses living in their mobile homes and spending their nights at the bingo hall? 

Just one pull off the slots away from a carton of Pall Malls and helping Brent Venables do God's work.

[RollingPresidential 633]

2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

1) When the groups come together in order to set salary caps, they will establish steep costs for violating the salary cap. This won't be a black market. Anyone trying to establish one will be punished by the collective org. That's basic shit when a market is transparent yet closed. Corruption can occur only within short windows. 

2) Players will still get compensated outside of that for NIL. 

Item 1 presumes that a metric fuckton of things would have to happen in order for 1 to come to fruition. Conferences would have to find a way to align and anoint a commission or commission who would have unchecked power and they would all have to agree to that role and responsibility. If they can never do this, 1 never happens and it doesn't matter.  

Item 2 exists now and won't be changing. People can call it what they want and whine about it if it doesn't serve their purpose, but no one is going to be preventing a player from getting endorsements in whatever form they manifest. They'll be getting run over repeatedly if they try to limit it.  

If folks want to understand how this will all shakeout between the conferences, programs, players, and media deals, they should read a book or two on game theory. A lot of this shit is going to play out in paint-by-numbers fashion once framed in that context. My view is that nothing is going to change this from the "wild west" until the conferences and schools are able to "give" some of the media revenue pie to the collective of players within those conferences. That is a long walk from here. The SEC can't just tell its 16 members that they are all now required to give a certain percentage of their money to the players on campus. Anyone looking for something expeditious is fucked. I think Saban ultimately came to this realization. Alabama is fucked on NIL for the rest of his lifetime. Praise the Lord that that stay true.

I am by no means an antitrust expert, but it seems like we are about to see quite a bit of antitrust litigation around conference realignment and if the conferences do these kinds of things. The consumer welfare standard has been in place as long as Board of Regents of OU v NCAA has been law, but the former is certainly being challenged quite a bit these days. 

[Bodacious Bevo 3596]

3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

1) When the groups come together in order to set salary caps, they will establish steep costs for violating the salary cap. This won't be a black market. Anyone trying to establish one will be punished by the collective org. That's basic shit when a market is transparent yet closed. Corruption can occur only within short windows. 

2) Players will still get compensated outside of that for NIL. 

Item 1 presumes that a metric fuckton of things would have to happen in order for 1 to come to fruition. Conferences would have to find a way to align and anoint a commission or commission who would have unchecked power and they would all have to agree to that role and responsibility. If they can never do this, 1 never happens and it doesn't matter.  

Item 2 exists now and won't be changing. People can call it what they want and whine about it if it doesn't serve their purpose, but no one is going to be preventing a player from getting endorsements in whatever form they manifest. They'll be getting run over repeatedly if they try to limit it.  

If folks want to understand how this will all shakeout between the conferences, programs, players, and media deals, they should read a book or two on game theory. A lot of this shit is going to play out in paint-by-numbers fashion once framed in that context. My view is that nothing is going to change this from the "wild west" until the conferences and schools are able to "give" some of the media revenue pie to the collective of players within those conferences. That is a long walk from here. The SEC can't just tell its 16 members that they are all now required to give a certain percentage of their money to the players on campus. Anyone looking for something expeditious is fucked. I think Saban ultimately came to this realization. Alabama is fucked on NIL for the rest of his lifetime. Praise the Lord that that stay true.

On the topic of reading materials to frame what's happening, I would throw out Essence of Decision. It's a breakdown of the Cuban missile crisis through three lenses: rational choice (the heart of game theory), organizational processes, and bureaucratic politics. I'm attaching a PDF of a journal article published by the authors. I highlighted the most important parts of the models and the portions that apply them to the missile crisis. 

That said, resource dependence theory is my personal favorite way to understand the NIL landscape. 

surly missile crisis.pdf

Edited February 9 by Bodacious Bevo

[Hookem10 758]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I don't know what to tell you guys who keep bringing up the bogeymen of the 80's or even the recent bag game. The game is no longer the same. It's not just more fierce. It's changed. OU can wish their way into cheating with an extra million on the side whatever dumb reason you guys imagine in this example. If that means they're pushing $5M through a roster instead of $4M, while Texas is X times that total, why do we give a fuck? and how is that harming us? 

Is it some unwillingness from a bunch of you to understand what's happening? Texas is the bogeyman, the one who knocks, the entity with the biggest chip stack, the person you get scared of seeing enter the chat, the name you don't say three times in a row, etc. We're no longer in there with the bad guys. The bad guys are now locked in here with us, on our terms. You can stop being scared of LSU, Bama, and Oklahoma. They'll still sign good classes and win guys we wanted, but Texas is going to get what Texas wants and needs. 

You got me pumped up - any brick walls around here 

[msucolt45 4063]

 

They need to add the Meth-dealers to their “rolla dial”. That’ll help those Frs in fund raising!

Hook’em!!!

[Funk Doctor Spock 12457]

3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I don't know what to tell you guys who keep bringing up the bogeymen of the 80's or even the recent bag game. The game is no longer the same. It's not just more fierce. It's changed. OU can wish their way into cheating with an extra million on the side whatever dumb reason you guys imagine in this example. If that means they're pushing $5M through a roster instead of $4M, while Texas is X times that total, why do we give a fuck? and how is that harming us? 

Is it some unwillingness from a bunch of you to understand what's happening? Texas is the bogeyman, the one who knocks, the entity with the biggest chip stack, the person you get scared of seeing enter the chat, the name you don't say three times in a row, etc. We're no longer in there with the bad guys. The bad guys are now locked in here with us, on our terms. You can stop being scared of LSU, Bama, and Oklahoma. They'll still sign good classes and win guys we wanted, but Texas is going to get what Texas wants and needs. 

You're a huge cunt, but this was a great description of Texas. 

[statsman 5474]

I’ve added to my guilty pleasure of reading Sooner sites. I also listened to a couple of podcasts. This is what they claim, and I’m curious as to other opinions of their accuracy. 
1. They are frustrated with the modern state of the game. “It’s out of control. Something must be done”. 
2. NIL seems to be a problem for them. They say that OU can get the money, but Brent wants to build a program on “relationships”, rather than “transactions”. 
3. They say OU can get the money; it struggles in organizing the collectives and making the “ask”. 
4. They want the NCAA to step in and regulate this. They think NIL really should just be compensation for promotions, and not pay for play. They also allow that there are probably a couple of key players on each team that deserve significant high six figure pay (you figure that one out).

5. They are bringing guys like Curtis Loftin and Mark Clayton in to work personnel staff “GM” and recruiting coordinator positions. 
 
My thoughts:

Are you kidding me? The NCAA? Do they really think that’s still a thing? Hell, they started the dumping of the NCAA in football, with UGA, in the ‘80s. 
 
Then, I figured it out. They may never have been real supporters of the NCAA, but it filled a real function for them, for decades. The NCAA had rules, and their key rivals, UT and NU, followed them. This was a huge part of their success. If Texas had bid for players against Switzer, he would never have won a single MNC. But Texas didn’t, and OU could pay a key recruit $150k to sign, no $30k per year, and Boomer Sooner. 
 
Now, Texas’ boosters are funding NIL, and OU is struggling to keep up. They want the NCAA to step in, and regulate Texas, so they can get back to the good old ways.