Conservatives (GOP) have a Millennials Problem

[The Dog 43807]

This is primarily from the UK perspective, but also covers the US:

This is obviously a problem, as the Millennials are the largest generation in the US:

The trend has always been that as people age they become more conservative (mostly due to fiscal issues). 

What's interesting is even among Millennial homeowners they aren't "coming around" (for lack of a better term) like previous generations. 

I couldn't figure any other thread to put this so started a new one. 

[The Dog 43807]

tacking on how this guy suggests they "fix" this:

 

 

This would of course require the GOP to actually have a REAL platform, rather than just "Whatever Trump says". 

[Red Five 40665]

Yeah I'm sure they'll get right on all of that. 

[Bullneck 18987]

It's more than just the housing shortage.  

Right wingers have no policy for climate change or income inequity or school shootings or police brutality.  

No plan = why should you be elected?

[ztejas 43266]

I think the abortion stance is slowly starting to fuck them over. America is becoming a lot less religious. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

We’ve stopped them aborting babies, just keep keeping then scared of the negroes!  Hurry, times running out!

Edited December 30, 2022 by Judge Roybeanbag

[tx 3 putt 76399]

People with even avg intelligence, don’t want to be associated with GQP 

 

[YChang 3431]

21 minutes ago, ztejas said:America is becoming a lot less religious. 

Not soon enough… based on the number of churches and mega churches being built. 

[chainsaw 9838]

25 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I think the abortion stance is slowly starting to fuck them over. America is becoming a lot less religious. 

religious people didn't even give a fuck about abortion until the 80s either

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

religious people didn't even give a fuck about abortion until the 80s either

What about the caravans, and fentanyl? 

[RomaVicta 29794]

My anecdotal observation of Millenials has been that they're exposed to so much media via phone, laptop, and TV that instead of becoming easily influenced by advertising and rah-rah shit, they're skeptical about it all. They seem to be much less dogmatic than we boomers and everbody since WWII. Bravo to them.

I'd also be interested in how the researchists determined if someone was voting "conservative." As noted above, the GOP has no philosophy beyond emotional agitation. I don't know about the UK, but where does an American go to vote conservative for the fiscal reasons described in research?

I wonder how conservative is even described here anymore.  Liberal still means something in describing the Dems. If someone announces themselves as liberal, you have some notion of their belief that government can be used effectively for the good of all. The policies may fail or be inane, but you know where they're coming from.

Conservative Millennials, evidently, realize that voting GOP has nothing to do with non-fascists conservatives seeking to restrain government from getting into our lives, being reluctant to spend, and seeing that the burden on the non-poor is considered in spending decisions. The kind of things that made me moderate; I see the value there.

 

[4th&Five 41461]

GOP also has a problem attracting and keeping people that aren’t massive pieces of shit. That doesn’t change their views either. 

[wildcat09 29258]

People used to become more conservative as they aged because they became more invested in the status quo.

Boomers pulled up the economic ladder and torched the planet, so we millennials haven't become more invested in their status quo. It's that simple.

[Js1 85110]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Yeah I'm sure they'll get right on all of that. 

I’m sure this post mortem will definitely be followed 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

People used to become more conservative as they aged because they became more invested in the status quo.

Boomers pulled up the economic ladder and torched the planet, so we millennials haven't become more invested in their status quo. It's that simple.

It was easy when you could work at the same company for decades and retire with a decent pension.  And there is a helluva lot of cynicism about a lot of things among the younger generations, and the olds seem to not only not give a shit, but are stoking the fire and trashing a lot things the younger folks care about.

Not helped that Trump runs around acting like the crazy old uncle/grandpa.

[4th&Five 41461]

9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

People used to become more conservative as they aged because they became more invested in the status quo.

Boomers pulled up the economic ladder and torched the planet, so we millennials haven't become more invested in their status quo. It's that simple.

Yeah, my dad is still waiting for me to grow up and become more conservative. I’m 42 so maybe by 50 he’ll give up. 

[conVINCEd 21468]

3 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Yeah, my dad is still waiting for me to grow up and become more conservative. I’m 42 so maybe by 50 he’ll give up. 

He won’t.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Bullneck said:

It's more than just the housing shortage.  

Right wingers have no policy for climate change or income inequity or school shootings or police brutality.  

No plan = why should you be elected?

It will be here in two weeks years decades

[Hermanator 6944]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

This is primarily from the UK perspective, but also covers the US:

This is obviously a problem, as the Millennials are the largest generation in the US:

The trend has always been that as people age they become more conservative (mostly due to fiscal issues). 

What's interesting is even among Millennial homeowners they aren't "coming around" (for lack of a better term) like previous generations. 

I couldn't figure any other thread to put this so started a new one. 

The bar graph can't be taken seriously if you don't have generations of equal years. You can't have boomers be 18 year gap then have the others be 15 year gaps. Statistically it just ruins it. 

[hobbes2702 12846]

1 hour ago, Bullneck said:

It's more than just the housing shortage.  

Right wingers have no policy for climate change or income inequity or school shootings or police brutality.  

No plan = why should you be elected?

Exactly fucking this. They have no policy on anything. Period. Millennials don’t care about culture war bullshit and never will. 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

14 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Yeah, my dad is still waiting for me to grow up and become more conservative. I’m 42 so maybe by 50 he’ll give up. 

Does he have a fair amount of money?  If so, you could tell him to give it all to you, to see how each of your political preferences and voting habits change. 

[Gatorubet 30115]

54 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

My anecdotal observation of Millenials has been that they're exposed to so much media via phone, laptop, and TV that instead of becoming easily influenced by advertising and rah-rah shit, they're skeptical about it all. They seem to be much less dogmatic than we boomers and everbody since WWII. Bravo to them.

My younger son told me they “were raised in a catfishing era since a young age, so don’t instantly believe stupid Facebook stuff like Boomers”.  

My oldest son’s core belief is is that “GOP equals mostly hatred of anyone different than old, religious white people, and an utter disregard for truth with next level hypocrisy.”

Their words.     And I find this next thing rather depressing:  my youngest son thinks that he will have a future with few economic opportunities, lessened chance at homeownership - and horrific climate change problems. Because of that, he thinks the most important thing is for people to be tolerant and work together because of their daunting future. If his view is shared by others his age, that will certainly alter their perceptions on all things political.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

16 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

The bar graph can't be taken seriously if you don't have generations of equal years. You can't have boomers be 18 year gap then have the others be 15 year gaps. Statistically it just ruins it. 

It's murky. There's no consensus on beginning and endings of a cohort. I'm an old GenX from 67. My dad was born before the traditional start of Boomers in 36 and my mom at the cusp in 44. He has some influences of the Greatest Generation with memories of Depression era conditions and the war, but mom is decidedly a Boomer. Putting a hard line at 1945 doesn't account for human experience that's messy and muddled. Sorting hat don't exist.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

What if it isn't how old we are at the present but how we react to the President and Politics as we turn 18? What if the older voters that grew up with FDR stayed strong Democrats all their lives?

Maybe that's going to suck for Republicans.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/partisan-loyalty-begins-at-age-18/amp/

[Hermanator 6944]

4 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

It's murky. There's no consensus on beginning and endings of a cohort. I'm an old GenX from 67. My dad was born before the traditional start of Boomers in 36 and my mom at the cusp in 44. He has some influences of the Greatest Generation with memories of Depression era conditions and the war, but mom is decidedly a Boomer. Putting a hard line at 1945 doesn't account for human experience that's messy and muddled. Sorting hat don't exist.

Well the line at 1946 is due to the war ending in 1945 and all the servicemen coming back and having babies. That's why the baby boomer line always starts in 1946. 

Statistically speaking if you want to even begin to have an accurate analysis when you're going to make the boomers from 1946 to 1964 then you have to also make the subsequent generations have the same gap of 18. Or make the baby boomer gap 15 and shift the others back 3 years. 

I understand making the generations uneven if you're talking purely about experiences, although the beginning years of a generation are always going to be more aligned with the ending years of the previous than they are the ending years of their own generation. But if you want to take statistics out of it, especially for generation size, you can't have one of them be 3 years longer than the others. 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Just now, Hermanator said:

Well the line at 1946 is due to the war ending in 1945 and all the servicemen coming back and having babies. That's why the baby boomer line always starts in 1946. 

Statistically speaking if you want to even begin to have an accurate analysis when you're going to make the boomers from 1946 to 1964 then you have to also make the subsequent generations have the same gap of 18. Or make the baby boomer gap 15 and shift the others back 3 years. 

I understand making the generations uneven if you're talking purely about experiences, although the beginning years of a generation are always going to be more aligned with the ending years of the previous than they are the ending years of their own generation. But if you want to take statistics out of it, especially for generation size, you can't have one of them be 3 years longer than the others. 

And I'm telling you the best we can hope for are fuzzy fading spectrums. Tendencies are about the most I can ask of behavioral studies. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

I will believe the GOP has a millennial problem when I see it. The “don’t worry, once the old people die, it’s going to get better” hasn’t worked before. The terrible people indoctrinate their terrible kids. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21065]

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I will believe the GOP has a millennial problem when I see it. The “don’t worry, once the old people die, it’s going to get better” hasn’t worked before. The terrible people indoctrinate their terrible kids. 

Yep, I've said it many times.  Urban millennials might trend Dem but rural millennials are largely falling in lockstep w/ their parents.  

[RomaVicta 29794]

54 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

My younger son told me they “were raised in a catfishing era since a young age, so don’t instantly believe stupid Facebook stuff like Boomers”.  

My oldest son’s core belief is is that “GOP equals mostly hatred of anyone different than old, religious white people, and an utter disregard for truth with next level hypocrisy.”

Their words.     And I find this next thing rather depressing:  my youngest son thinks that he will have a future with few economic opportunities, lessened chance at homeownership - and horrific climate change problems. Because of that, he thinks the most important thing is for people to be tolerant and work together because of their daunting future. If his view is shared by others his age, that will certainly alter their perceptions on all things political.

I think your youngest son is right about the future and your eldest is right about the GOP. Congratulate yourself and your spouse for setting the groundwork for the men to reach their own conclusions.

I don't think anyone will truly grasp what this era of plenty has been like for most Americans. They'll despise our materialism for what it's done to their world and envy just how nice we have it: cars, disposable income, freedom of movement, fair climate, it's pretty great. I was very lucky with my time and place of birth.

[Huckleberry 32703]

1 hour ago, Hermanator said:

Well the line at 1946 is due to the war ending in 1945 and all the servicemen coming back and having babies. That's why the baby boomer line always starts in 1946. 

Statistically speaking if you want to even begin to have an accurate analysis when you're going to make the boomers from 1946 to 1964 then you have to also make the subsequent generations have the same gap of 18. Or make the baby boomer gap 15 and shift the others back 3 years. 

I understand making the generations uneven if you're talking purely about experiences, although the beginning years of a generation are always going to be more aligned with the ending years of the previous than they are the ending years of their own generation. But if you want to take statistics out of it, especially for generation size, you can't have one of them be 3 years longer than the others. 

Yes you can. It's a percentage based comparison, not totals. Your complaints have zero scientific merit. 

If your argument was valid then we wouldn't be able to say that smokers have shorter lifespans than non-smokers because there aren't the same number of each. Or compare 21st century home ownership rates before versus after the 2008 housing crash because there aren't the same number of years on each side of the comparison. 

And this doesn't even get into the fact that year span doesn't equal population because overall population has grown. You're wrong in about every way you could be wrong. 

[Gatorubet 30115]

18 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I think your youngest son is right about the future and your eldest is right about the GOP.

My oldest son is gay, so his opinion of the GOP reached a natural conclusion.  He called me up all excited, saying “Dad I’ll be able to marry somebody I love!” when the SCOTUS decision was announced.   A political party that includes some who think that gay sex should be criminalized and gay marriage outlawed has a limited appeal to my son. Most younger people do not have that religious condemnation view of gays that was indoctrinated in most older people.  

The GOP has not yet figured out how much they lose in pursuing an anti-gay agenda. Their calculus seems to look at the fact that they will lose gay votes in a vacuum.  Because of their personal views they don’t seem to understand that everyone has gay friends, coworkers and family members. Or that just because you are not gay yourself does not mean you do not take great offense at anti-gay rhetoric and legislation. GQP gonna GQP. 

[Hermanator 6944]

8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yes you can. It's a percentage based comparison, not totals. Your complaints have zero scientific merit. 

If your argument was valid then we wouldn't be able to say that smokers have shorter lifespans than non-smokers because there aren't the same number of each. Or compare 21st century home ownership rates before versus after the 2008 housing crash because there aren't the same number of years on each side of the comparison. 

And this doesn't even get into the fact that year span doesn't equal population because overall population has grown. You're wrong in about every way you could be wrong. 

None of those are the equivalent of using a bar graph to display differences in the size of 4 different generations while having different parameters for the time span of the generations. 

To use your smoker analogy an equivalent yet exaggerated way to do what they did would be using a bar graph to say there are more smokers in the US in generation A than in generation B when generation A was born from 1970 to 1990 and generation B from 1960 to 1962. Having a skewed pool for each generation creates skewed outcome. 

[Paul Wesley 3277]

2 hours ago, Bullneck said:

It's more than just the housing shortage.  

Right wingers have no policy for climate change or income inequity or school shootings or police brutality.  

Yeah, I agree with this.  

In the past decade, we've seen Reagan's "government IS the problem" thesis statement become the foundation of the GOP -- i.e.  burn down the government.  Trump famously appointed cabinet leaders who were hostile to the very mission they were assigned to do... Ben Carson was hostile to housing poor people, Rick Perry wanted to abolish the Department of Energy, billionaire pyramid-scheme heiress Betsy Devos wanted to make it much easier to divert funding from public schools, etc, etc.   

I mean, the animating get-out-the-vote causes for GOP voters in 2020 either didn't actually happen (a laptop that doesn't seem to have actually existed at all, a totally fucking fictional crisis about massive voter fraud, all kind of pizzagate and Jewish-space-laser Qanon shit), or had arguably zero impact on real-world problems (Hillary's emails from more than a decade prior).  Before the 2022 midterms, conservative media went on a massive blitz covering an ominous crime wave that was exaggerated or misrepresented (i.e. the spike happened under the Trump administration).  At the very least -- just like Bush's red/yellow/red/yellow/red/yellow terror-o-meter in 2004 and the migrant-caravan-coming-to-kill-us-all in 2016 -- right-wing coverage of this "crime wave" (if it was even a real thing) clearly disappeared the day of the election.  

The GOP bemoans lack of support among young people, while simultaneously their 2020 national platform was literally "we agree with anything Trump says."  

Really, they're doing remarkably well in elections despite their lack of solutions, because highly coordinated propaganda works great on angry old people (many of whom have spent the past two decades mistaking it for news).  On younger adults, not quite as much. 

[Gengs1 2583]

The reason why the gqp has shifted to middle/high schools with their CTR and colleges have always been their main target. This will only get worse. The alt right is using the internet somewhat effectively with getting kids on their side with Rogan, Peterson, Tate, Ben etc. they really want to get the kids to follow them etc 

 

[Gatorubet 30115]

3 hours ago, The Dog said:

This is obviously a problem, as the Millennials are the largest generation in the US:

The trend has always been that as people age they become more conservative (mostly due to fiscal issues). 

What's interesting is even among Millennial homeowners they aren't "coming around" (for lack of a better term) like previous generations.  

I just wanna add that this should be extra concerning to the GOP, as their hope of senate or house control always comes down to many too close to call. Individual elections. The GOP does not have to suffer all millennials staying more liberal to alter their election chances. Just a 5 or 10% change in the voting pattern of one generational demographic could have an extremely adverse effect on the GOP’s electoral hopes.

We already know that the GOP cannot seem to win a POTUS popular vote.  Just a few percentage points lost when dirt napping boomers are replaced by voters like my sons might be able to chip away at the last remaining GOP advantage - the electoral college results.  

[Hefeweizen 5307]

2 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Yeah, my dad is still waiting for me to grow up and become more conservative. I’m 42 so maybe by 50 he’ll give up. 

My dad is a lifelong democrat (82 now) and I was a Republican for quite a long time until the bullshit started to wear thin, between Bush invading Iraq and the tea party fakery.  What this trend says is that millennials have better bullshit filters than us old.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

...   And I find this next thing rather depressing:  my youngest son thinks that he will have a future with few economic opportunities, lessened chance at homeownership - and horrific climate change problems. Because of that, he thinks the most important thing is for people to be tolerant and work together because of their daunting future. If his view is shared by others his age, that will certainly alter their perceptions on all things political.

One of mine is also of similar mind. He believes that a mix of capitalism/socialism (read daycare/education) is not a bad thing but everywhere he turns it is fuck you I got mine and no future planning, no investment, no community care. He votes.

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I will believe the GOP has a millennial problem when I see it. The “don’t worry, once the old people die, it’s going to get better” hasn’t worked before. The terrible people indoctrinate their terrible kids. 

Also true and the below is coming on strong. Hate sells.

3 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

The reason why the gqp has shifted to middle/high schools with their CTR and colleges have always been their main target. This will only get worse. The alt right is using the internet somewhat effectively with getting kids on their side with Rogan, Peterson, Tate, Ben etc. they really want to get the kids to follow them etc 

 

 

[Gatorubet 30115]

57 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Yep, I've said it many times.  Urban millennials might trend Dem but rural millennials are largely falling in lockstep w/ their parents.  

I agree with that to some extent. I mean, we all have personal experience with neighbors and family where the kids seem to adopt views held by their parents. But if that were true, it would seem to negate the entire conclusion of the study.  if that were true, there should be no slowing of conservative views as found in the study.  I mean, all kids would adopt their parents viewpoints resulting in a net zero gain for more liberal kids.

It might be interesting to see the numbers on the increased urbanization of the US population. If millennials move from rural environments for the opportunity in more urban areas, then maybe you would see them adopt the social and voting patterns of their urban friends. If that is the case, then your observations of rural kids would be absolutely true, but not negate the increased number of more liberal urban millennials in the voting pool. 

[The Dog 43807]

1 hour ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Yep, I've said it many times.  Urban millennials might trend Dem but rural millennials are largely falling in lockstep w/ their parents.  

Now consider this map and what I posted above:

 

[Gatorubet 30115]

Now consider this map and what I posted above:



 

It might be interesting to see the numbers on the increased urbanization of the US population.

[956 Worldwide 34444]

2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

People used to become more conservative as they aged because they became more invested in the status quo.

Boomers pulled up the economic ladder and torched the planet, so we millennials haven't become more invested in their status quo. It's that simple.

It can’t be said better than this. And even millennial homeowners have plenty of friends their age who work hard and just can’t manage the bare minimum. 
 

There should be no surprise that the first American generation to be worse off than their parents will decide said parents’ system is horse shit. 

[elfenix 34171]

10 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Now consider this map and what I posted above:

 

SanAustonioplex

[NameAlreadyInUse 5106]

3 hours ago, Hermanator said:

Well the line at 1946 is due to the war ending in 1945 and all the servicemen coming back and having babies. That's why the baby boomer line always starts in 1946. 

Statistically speaking if you want to even begin to have an accurate analysis when you're going to make the boomers from 1946 to 1964 then you have to also make the subsequent generations have the same gap of 18. Or make the baby boomer gap 15 and shift the others back 3 years. 

I understand making the generations uneven if you're talking purely about experiences, although the beginning years of a generation are always going to be more aligned with the ending years of the previous than they are the ending years of their own generation. But if you want to take statistics out of it, especially for generation size, you can't have one of them be 3 years longer than the others. 

Just like with everything else, the boomers just wanted to take that much extra and leave the rest of us with scraps.  That's why they got 18 years and the rest of us only get 15.  

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

3 hours ago, hobbes2702 said:

Exactly fucking this. They have no policy on anything. Period. Millennials don’t care about culture war bullshit and never will. 

Their policy is conservative.  By definition, don’t change. 

[YGIFS 19449]

40 years ago, I think I read something about Texas getting browner and younger.  And here we are.  Double digit wins by every statewide cunt.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Now consider this map and what I posted above:

 

what the fuck is going on in that brown area where the southeast corner of NM touches? I looked at a map and there's nothing there. Wind farms? Is Midland/Odessa the place to be I missed it?

[tigol 2383]

what the fuck is going on in that brown area where the southeast corner of NM touches? I looked at a map and there's nothing there. Wind farms? Is Midland/Odessa the place to be I missed it?

Abortion and weed access?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

1 minute ago, tigol said:

Abortion and weed access?

[Bullneck 18987]

43 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

what the fuck is going on in that brown area where the southeast corner of NM touches? I looked at a map and there's nothing there. Wind farms? Is Midland/Odessa the place to be I missed it?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

6 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

ahhh. I am probably the least plugged into O&G of anyone on here. makes sense