2023 Rain Thread

[Bevo Num1 1011]

Got my text from PEC about severe weather and reporting outages. I guess I need to order my pizzas and buy cases of Pepsi/Coke because Frankie told me to.

[atomheartbevo 89626]

3 hours ago, South Austin said:

I'm guessing it's an over-reaction to criticisms the City of Austin received after shitty communications during the most recent ice storm.

Well, that ice storm just popped up at the last moment and was moving 60mph and....oh wait, it was a fucking ice storm they predicted well in advance (just not how bad it would be).

[South Austin 52449]

@phdhorn, how’s this one shaping out?

[BabaYaga 15288]

[boknowstecmo 216]

Bunch of supercells well ahead of the line wreaking havoc up north. Line has formed out west and is mostly t-storm warned already for strong winds. Looks to be about 4-5 hours out still.

[SimonBolivar 10957]

7 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

Bunch of supercells well ahead of the line wreaking havoc up north. Line has formed out west and is mostly t-storm warned already for strong winds. Looks to be about 4-5 hours out still.

First Tornado Warning of the line just popped just east of Breckenridge

 

And another one right at Winstar, but it's Oklahoma so who cares.

Edited March 2, 2023 by SimonBolivar

[Blotto 23488]

53 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

Does HEB sell shitter paper in 96 packs, or am I gonna have to settle for two 48 packs? Have I waited too long, are they even open? Fuck this is f'n scary. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Blotto

[phdhorn 6224]

Most of the worst will be north of us, if just north. Gonna be a good spread of tornadoes in NE TX into SEC country tonight. Not pretty.

For ATX, wouldn't surprise me if a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued, but the models have kept the Big Red Target NE of us up to now, so that's not changing. Biggest worry is straight line winds over a 5-6 mile spot somewhere, and hail in very scattered pockets. I ain't really worried about it at this point, luckiest guess is some poor spot around ATX will get some quarter sized hail and wind damage. But pinpoint. That's what I see right now.

Line has formed but southern end is ebbing and flowing, north half is pretty nasty, around Waco to Metroplex... we'll see what happens as it hits warm air somewhere around us. 

We'll know by about 6:30 what we're in for if anything... bulk of it should hit about 7-8 in ATX. I won't be back unless bad things start to happen 'round here.

[Jerry Callo 8698]

Existe el riesgo de tormentas severas esta tarde y noche. Se esperan vientos dañinos. Por favor, guarde o asegure los artículos sueltos. Tornados aislados y granizo son posibles. Conozca sus lugares seguros para refugiarse y asegúrese de tener una manera de recibir alertas y advertencias.  ¡santa mierda!

[RamjetFDO 10575]

5 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

 I won't be back unless bad things start to happen 'round here.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

9 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Most of the worst will be north of us, if just north. Gonna be a good spread of tornadoes in NE TX into SEC country tonight. Not pretty.

For ATX, wouldn't surprise me if a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued, but the models have kept the Big Red Target NE of us up to now, so that's not changing. Biggest worry is straight line winds over a 5-6 mile spot somewhere, and hail in very scattered pockets. I ain't really worried about it at this point, luckiest guess is some poor spot around ATX will get some quarter sized hail and wind damage. But pinpoint. That's what I see right now.

Line has formed but southern end is ebbing and flowing, north half is pretty nasty, around Waco to Metroplex... we'll see what happens as it hits warm air somewhere around us. 

We'll know by about 6:30 what we're in for if anything... bulk of it should hit about 7-8 in ATX. I won't be back unless bad things start to happen 'round here.

 

La mayor parte de lo peor estará al norte de nosotros, aunque solo sea al norte. Va a haber una buena propagación de tornados en el NE de TX hacia el país de la SEC esta noche. No es bonito.

 

Para ATX, no me sorprendería que se emita una Vigilancia de Tormentas Severas, pero los modelos han mantenido el Big Red Target NE de nosotros hasta ahora, así que eso no va a cambiar. La mayor preocupación son los vientos en línea recta sobre un lugar de 5 a 6 millas en algún lugar y el granizo en bolsas muy dispersas. No estoy realmente preocupado por eso en este momento, la suposición más afortunada es que algún lugar pobre alrededor de ATX sufrirá daños por granizo y viento del tamaño de una moneda de veinticinco centavos. Pero puntualiza. Eso es lo que veo ahora.

 

La línea se ha formado, pero el extremo sur está subiendo y bajando, la mitad norte es bastante desagradable, alrededor de Waco a Metroplex... veremos qué sucede cuando golpee el aire cálido en algún lugar a nuestro alrededor.

 

Alrededor de las 6:30 sabremos lo que nos espera en todo caso... la mayor parte debería alcanzar alrededor de 7-8 en ATX. No volveré a menos que empiecen a pasar cosas malas por aquí.

[TwiceHorn 31438]

Got the first tornado warnings in southern Oklahoma and east of Sulphur Springs.

I'll defer to you weather experts, but it looks like the potential supercells have moved out of Texas, except that to the east, certainly out of the Metroplex.  Now we await the squall/dry line and what it brings on its forward edge.  Just severe tstorms for now.

[SimonBolivar 10957]

Tornado was confirmed on the ground at 4:30 and that storm is supposed to hit Mt Vernon at 4:45. Tornadoes in the squall line are usually short lived, but this one in front is a wild card.

[hookemATL 11702]

[HenryJames 66038]

12 minutes ago, Jerry Callo said:

Existe el riesgo de tormentas severas esta tarde y noche. Se esperan vientos dañinos. Por favor, guarde o asegure los artículos sueltos. Tornados aislados y granizo son posibles. Conozca sus lugares seguros para refugiarse y asegúrese de tener una manera de recibir alertas y advertencias.  ¡santa mierda!

Señores y señoras
Nosotros tenemos más influencia con sus hijos que tú tiene, pero los queremos
Creado y regado de Los Angeles, Juana's Addicción

[TwiceHorn 31438]

Shit, there are two threads.

Got a tornado warning to the west out around Brownwood.

[SimonBolivar 10957]

4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Shit, there are two threads.

Got a tornado warning to the west out around Brownwood.

Luckily it looks like it'll miss the town proper but that line is starting to produce 

[Blotto 23488]

lulz, I just checked my email to find a note from Austin Water letting me know that as of now, all systems are a go. However if they do need to implement additional conservation measures, they will be back in touch. There must have been some major league ass chewings handed down from top to bottom after that ice storm. From now if two birds fart at the same time, we're gonna get an update. 

[TwiceHorn 31438]

I just looked at the "future cast" on the nbcdfw radar.  Weird, a squall line pops up right over Dallas about 7 and the current one dissipates.

That thing seems to be fairly macro accurate from past observations.

[Deej 76754]

Our receptionist at work said she received 60+ consecutive warning calls from COA on the main line. 

[sasquatch69 596]

Points north of D/FW (Sherman, Aubrey, etc.) got a massive hailstorm around 4pm. It's the same squall line bearing down on Denton and D/FW proper right now.

 

[phdhorn 6224]

Just wanted to duck in to say that if you're getting alerts in Spanish, you shouldn't worry unless you're Hispanic. Those storms never hit English-speaking peoples' houses.

Don't get me started...

Anyway, I won't be back (?).. hopefully.

[InkaUtexas 25861]

50 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

 

La mayor parte de lo peor estará al norte de nosotros, aunque solo sea al norte. Va a haber una buena propagación de tornados en el NE de TX hacia el país de la SEC esta noche. No es bonito.

 

Para ATX, no me sorprendería que se emita una Vigilancia de Tormentas Severas, pero los modelos han mantenido el Big Red Target NE de nosotros hasta ahora, así que eso no va a cambiar. La mayor preocupación son los vientos en línea recta sobre un lugar de 5 a 6 millas en algún lugar y el granizo en bolsas muy dispersas. No estoy realmente preocupado por eso en este momento, la suposición más afortunada es que algún lugar pobre alrededor de ATX sufrirá daños por granizo y viento del tamaño de una moneda de veinticinco centavos. Pero puntualiza. Eso es lo que veo ahora.

 

La línea se ha formado, pero el extremo sur está subiendo y bajando, la mitad norte es bastante desagradable, alrededor de Waco a Metroplex... veremos qué sucede cuando golpee el aire cálido en algún lugar a nuestro alrededor.

 

Alrededor de las 6:30 sabremos lo que nos espera en todo caso... la mayor parte debería alcanzar alrededor de 7-8 en ATX. No volveré a menos que empiecen a pasar cosas malas por aquí.

No me joda? 

[phdhorn 6224]

Pretty nasty cell near the bottom of the line going through Gillespie right now. Looks like some hail and strong winds. Just fyi, still has a lot of ground to cover before it gets here. Most of it will skirt north of metro. The northern Travis and Georgetown keep an eye out.

Edited March 2, 2023 by phdhorn

[TwiceHorn 31438]

All the circulation seems to have gone out of it up near the insurrectionplex.  Some stout straightline gusts being reported, though.

[jimmyjazz 45887]

I'm going to throw my phone away.

[TwiceHorn 31438]

Sirens going off for wind.  Severe tstorm with 80 mph gusts.

Not much hail, either.

Hope my neighbors have their shit secured.

Edited March 3, 2023 by TwiceHorn

[Skipper 6127]

Interesting sirens already going off in Dallas with the main event 30 mins out. I guess they got a ton of flack for the lack of advance warning with the October 2020 tornado and overcompensating.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

Pretty gnarley in central Denton county. Those wind gusts were crazy. Knock on wood my fence is still up. 

[boknowstecmo 216]

Line has extended south through Kerrville. Austin might actually get some of the action.

[4th_and_18 687]

Line has extended south through Kerrville. Austin might actually get some of the action.

Not a chance.

[TwiceHorn 31438]

Great one in Oak Cliff.

[Anastasis 23459]

What are we looking at for hail projections in Austin area?  Do I need to call the ball and go put the wife's car under cover?

[TwiceHorn 31438]

Here it comes.  Lots of frigging live oak leaves to blow around and make noise.

I expect to lose power.

Crazy thing is, the Rainy Days radar is mostly yellow.

Edited March 3, 2023 by TwiceHorn

[NTVTXN 1432]

Here in Colleyville, thing are settling down a bit.  
 Hey Dallas- Hold on to your butts!

[NTVTXN 1432]

1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

Here it comes.  Lots of frigging live oak leaves to blow around and make noise.

I expect to lose power.

Dude on Channel 5 (not Harold Raft RIP), just said there’s a POSSIBLE circulation headed towards downtown Dallas…BE SAFE!

[TwiceHorn 31438]

6 minutes ago, NTVTXN said:

Dude on Channel 5 (not Harold Raft RIP), just said there’s a POSSIBLE circulation headed towards downtown Dallas…BE SAFE!

Significantly south of me, but thanks.

This is gonna fuck up the MTB trails so bad for so long.

[Zepol87 9185]

Shit just passed me in little elm, wind was insane. The meat market a couple miles away is partially collapsed due to 87mph winds retorted. Pretty wild evening

[Hawndoh 2386]

My basketball goal blew over. It's crazy windy.

[SimonBolivar 10957]

Another one at Copperas Cove/Ft Hood

[phdhorn 6224]

All Austin metro about to get severe thunderstorm warning, pea-size jail and 70 mph winds in many spots. Going to be a fun 20 minutes.

[South Austin 52449]

We just gave tree trimmers some nice bank. Now on to the roofers.

[hookemATL 11702]

9 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

All Austin metro about to get severe thunderstorm warning, pea-size jail and 70 mph winds in many spots. Going to be a fun 20 minutes.

Pea sized jail?

[Hawndoh 2386]

These 70 to 80 mph wind gusts are nuts

[TwiceHorn 31438]

Welp, I'm in the green now, maybe not totally out of the woods, but got power and I have seen worse winds.  Rain wasn't even that hard.

I think we did get some small brief hail.

[boknowstecmo 216]

The cell headed toward Austin is bowing like a motherfucker right now.

[South Austin 52449]

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Welp, I'm in the green now, maybe not totally out of the woods, but got power and I have seen worse winds.  Rain wasn't even that hard.

I think we did get some small brief hail.

That’s not how you start a GoFundMe account.

[Zepol87 9185]

Well that shit was nuts 

[TexArcher 37763]

9 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

These 70 to 80 mph wind gusts are nuts

Yeah, it's basically a very short tropical storm.  

And all those loose limbs on trees from the ice storm.  Yikes.

[Anastasis 23459]

21 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

All Austin metro about to get severe thunderstorm warning, pea-size jail and 70 mph winds in many spots. Going to be a fun 20 minutes.

Wind picking up. Looks like a little hole might open up around the land of MILFs and honey?