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2023 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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UnivTex34
UnivTex34

Got some after action shots from 400 ft AGL in 78748  

Hate
Hate

The people who can park their cars in their garage?

HenryJames
HenryJames

Your demographics are way off.

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Hate

Hate 20155

Posted
Posted

There is a risk of excessive rainfall this weekend for the Hill Country.  The fact that they already have this as slight and moderate this far out means there is a pretty damn good chance it's going to happen. 

 

Screenshot 2023-05-09 194519.png

Screenshot 2023-05-09 194545.png

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MrBig

MrBig 5477

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hate said:

There is a risk of excessive rainfall this weekend for the Hill Country.  The fact that they already have this as slight and moderate this far out means there is a pretty damn good chance it's going to happen. 

 

Screenshot 2023-05-09 194519.png

Screenshot 2023-05-09 194545.png

Every woman must have washed her hair and every man must have washed his truck at the same time in this area to guarantee this level of rainfall.

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14254

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MrBig said:

Every woman must have washed her hair and every man must have washed his truck at the same time in this area to guarantee this level of rainfall.

Lol you dumbass. We'll get like .25 while Waco gets a foot and a half. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

So, Austin got basically nothing the last 48 hours despite threats of rainpocalypse?  Shocking.

I got 0.5" yesterday afternoon/evening. And I think the 'pocalypse is this weekend.

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troph

troph 24916

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

As pitiful as it is.. I have not seen the Llano moving that high in a good while

Screenshot_20230510-120012.png

I fished about 20 miles upstream from there Sunday and flows were pretty good. This is great news for that river ecosystem. 

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Wilcox Cummingtonite

Wilcox Cummingtonite 3086

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

You guys do know about the Balcones fault and the weather, right?

Quote

6. Summary and conclusions

In this study, three different heavy precipitation and flash-flood events were examined to evaluate the effect that the Balcones Escarpment has on extreme precipitation in central Texas. Each event had different synoptic or mesoscale characteristics but all resulted in flooding damage and fatalities along the terrain feature. Numerical simulations were run using ARW at a convection-allowing grid spacing to ensure that a reasonable representation of the event was produced along the Balcones Escarpment. For each case, an experiment was conducted in which the elevation gradient associated with the Balcones Escarpment was removed.

To first order, the removal of the Balcones Escarpment did not change the precipitation characteristics of the events presented in this study. The occurrence and magnitude of the events were not significantly altered, with the overall spatial pattern and area-averaged precipitation showing little change when the terrain feature was removed. However, a shift in the precipitation to the north and west was found in simulations of all three cases. This shift in precipitation associated with removing the Balcones Escarpment, when compared to an ARW ensemble based on the parent Reforecast-2 ICs and LBCs, was much smaller than shifts associated with typical ensemble variability. Although hydrologic factors associated with the Balcones Escarpment make central Texas prone to flooding, it does not appear to cause the extreme precipitation events, of the scale analyzed in this study, that lead to flooding. Based on the results of this study, we conclude that when the synoptic to mesoscale ingredients for extreme convective precipitation are in place over the Balcones Escarpment, the terrain does not directly affect the occurrence or magnitude of precipitation in the region. However, it does appear to affect the spatial distribution of the accumulated rainfall in a small but consistent way—namely, by shifting the axis of heaviest precipitation slightly to the northwest. While the Balcones Escarpment did not seem to directly affect the occurrence and magnitudes of the extreme precipitation events studied here, the increased hydrological propensity for dangerous flash flooding associated with the terrain feature should not be ignored. Ongoing work will attempt to examine the effect of the terrain rise on smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, such as isolated thunderstorms. Since there is a spectrum of convective processes that can produce locally heavy precipitation, it is important to fully understand the meteorological influences the Balcones Escarpment has in this flood-prone region.

https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0156.1

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89909

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

Travis is very thirsty. 

PSA, good site for those who aren't aware. Still crazy to see that 30-35 foot rise in May 2015 as a result of the Memorial Day flooding.

https://www.golaketravis.com/waterlevel/index.php?year=2015

Wow, that's all fancy and stuff.

We are just simple people that just need to know if the lake is full yet.

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume

Or if you need to know the depth for some reason

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#depth

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23621

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Post Oak said:

That looks like a rain where the rivers and lakes need it

Yeah, I dont really care if Austin metro gets much as long as it pisses all over the lakes and river basins. I grabbed the latest drought map from this morning and overlaid it with the rain totals from above. 

image.thumb.png.8a4989f6a988eb1f968e7e1bc8735381.png

Thats a pretty good rain event if the forecast holds true.

Big if. 

 

Edited by Blotto
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texasdago

texasdago 7589

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Yeah, I dont really care if Austin metro gets much as long as it pisses all over the lakes and river basins. I grabbed the latest drought map from this morning and overlaid it with the rain totals from above. 

image.thumb.png.8a4989f6a988eb1f968e7e1bc8735381.png7

Thats a pretty good rain event if the forecast holds true.

Big if. 

 

I love the idea of just gobs of rain over the hill country... and I'll take some in Austin for sure but man, fill up those springs, rivers, creeks, lakes... lesssgoooo

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